Friday NBA Thoughts

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Yesterday was one of the most exciting small card nites in awhile. What A Kings -Lakers game. Great effort by Sac with the help of a few marginal no calls ..

Since 1/1/07:

Sides/Totals : 15-8 +20.60u
1st Q: +0.30u
1st H: -0.50u
2nd H -7.45u
Team Totals : +7.24u


7:05 :

Hawks +7.5 -102 {2units} ML +297 {1/4u}

Loss -2.25


Basically the Hawks have suddenly become well the Hawks. Losing Josh Smith and Ty Lue seems to have decimated the flow of the offense. Which means despite past high scoring meetings I feel the under would be more attractive. However as ATL historically plays well in Toronto already defeating them twice this year. I think the close game vs Pho will mask some problems as well as Bosh big game. Bosh doesnt generally play well vs Atlanta but more importantly we see alot of stars make triumphant returns only to fizzle shortly thereafter. The big knock for me on Atl is how they have played on extended rest being off since 12/31 ...0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS...M.O.D.(margin of defeat) is only 8 pts though. Really its also only 4 games they count the opener in these numbers for some reason. So on long rest they lost by 5 in OT hosting Miami 88-93 , @ Det by 5 98 -103 , hosting Utah lost by 6 106 -112 in that 4th Q collapse which sent them spiraling , and more recently the 13 pt home loss vs Cle which scares me. Sine it was a game that Lue and Smith missed...which I think has been the reason for Atl's dramatic decline

Charlotte +5 -112 1st Half{1.5units} ML +250 {1/2unit}
Over 187 -107 {2units}
Lean both overs team totals (89.5 and 98)

Loss 4.23...should have laid off the 1st H and went ORL 2nd H and middle the total..

Shaved a UNIT off the 1st Half play cause I thought the move to 5 was odd..

Sort of nervous backing Charlotte at this juncture when 4th quarters can be mysteries...like who to rely on offensively. So I will hope for a good start. As I said previously it finally appears that Charlotte has learned to play without Knight. The new task is needing consistency from Adam Morrison & Sean May to replace Gerald Wallace. I think Orlando inconsistent lineups have really hurt the offense. Last game they played without a 2 guard really but now should get Grant Hill and Dooling back...which is probably somewhere bewteen 25-30 pts of scoring..You can basically count the number of opponents who cant crack 97 pts vs Orl...

basically lets not mke that much of blowing out Miami and struggling to defeat a 2-10 LAC road team...

Over 213 -113 Washington {3units}+3.00
Over 109.5 -108 Wash team {2units}+2.00

Basically in 14 away games the clippers have seen there opponents score 100+ in 10 of them..the 4 others were Sac , Houston , Memphis and Orlando..get my drift...With the fact that somehow LAC seems to play well against Washington you have to think competitive game...to be competitive here you must score...113-108?

Over 193.5 -107 Chicago {3units} -3.21

Should be a competitive game ..think Bulls have seen 2 low scoring road games......11 games with 100++ ....95 and 97 in the other two...NJ allows 100 pts at home....w/o Kristic NJ doesnt have much interior presence...

Props:
Most pts scored : +379 McGrady , +345 Joe Johnson , +231 KG
Most assists : +300 Deron Williams
Most rebounds : +269 Dwight Howard



<TABLE id=tblPropFut onmouseover="changeto(event, '#F6C88F')" onmouseout="changeback(event, '#EEEEEE')" cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR id=ignore_a0><TD colSpan=3>NBA General Props: NBA Player Props - 01-05-2007



</TD></TR><TR class=CT3 id=ignore_b0><TD width="15%">Fri 1/5</TD><TD colSpan=2>Most Points Scored : (see tie breaker rules)</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD class=MBB>1101 Gilbert Arenas</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+215</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1102 Kobe Bryant</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+285</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1103 Allen Iverson</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+265</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1104 Tracy McGrady</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+379</TD></TR><TR class=CT3 id=ignore_b1><TD width="15%">Fri 1/5</TD><TD colSpan=2>Most Points Scored : (see tie breaker rules)</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD class=MBB>1111 Lebron James</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+249</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1112 Michael Redd</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+190</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1113 Vince Carter</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+390</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1114 Joe Johnson</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+345</TD></TR><TR class=CT3 id=ignore_b2><TD width="15%">Fri 1/5</TD><TD colSpan=2>Most Points Scored : (see tie breaker rules)</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD class=MBB>1121 Kevin Garnett</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+231</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1122 Dirk Nowitzki</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+249</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1123 Tim Duncan</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+315</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1124 Carlos Boozer</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+335</TD></TR><TR class=CT3 id=ignore_b3><TD width="15%">Fri 1/5</TD><TD colSpan=2>Most Assists : (see tie breaker rules)</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD class=MBB>1127 Jason Kidd</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+238</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1128 Andre Miller</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+335</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1129 Deron Williams</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+300</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1130 Allen Iverson</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+264</TD></TR><TR class=CT3 id=ignore_b4><TD width="15%">Fri 1/5</TD><TD colSpan=2>Most Rebounds : (see tie breaker rules)</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD class=MBB>1145 Dwight Howard</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+269</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1146 Chris Bosh</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+255</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1147 Emeka Okafor</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+300</TD></TR><TR class=hiliteRow><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1148 Kevin Garnett</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+289</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
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YO man im going to the wizards game right now and im gonna bet the over either now or before game.. i saw y ou say u were waiting ... do u anticipate it to fall??

I also have a Treo with broadband access so i could place the bet on pinny right before tip butr let me know asap
 
I think Hill and Dooling are still out.


Coach Brian Hill says Grant Hill (sore left foot) and Keyon Dooling (right Achilles') likely will miss their third consecutive game on Friday.
 
think collins is somewhat injured as well for Nj, thus taking away whats left of their decent big man.
 
I tried to like Orlando, but just could not pull the trigger, your thoughts on the Cha/Orl game sort of make me feel the decision was safe to not play.

Good Luck tonight
 
GL tonight nut.. the washington game i have no idea what to do about the side or total but if youre going to possibly drop 3 units on it then i might have to tail you... will be awaiting to see the rest of youre writeups.
 
Like your action in with Bobcats. Atlanta mild conflict. Making one of my funny bets. Toronto minus 1.5 fourth quarter. Triple revenge operating a need to break the losing streak before a tough game and Atlanta not very good in the fourth when its not given and Playing at home the next day. Maybe we both win. GL
 
Bulls Props: +3.03

Deng Over 18 -124 {unit}+1.00
Nocioni over 15 +103 {unit} +1.03
Wallace over 10.5 Rebounds -118 {unit} +1.00

8 PM:

Over 187 -110 Minny {4units} Win +4.00
Over 97.5 Minny -105 {2units} Win +2.00

Really see no reason why at home where Minny tends to be more high scoring they dont crack 100 pts....all the teams vs Philly have recently with the excepton of a few that hovered around 95 -97. KG seems to love the return of the old ball and dfensively Wolves have allowed 100+ 6 times past 10 and high 90 's in some others.....my concern would be Philly being tired and not competitive on the last road game...


Boston @ Memphis...it would be great to take an UNDER here however I dont know what to make of Memphis now and the line is dropping...rather see it rising... The line is not high if you see what it was against Golden State and then see it was in the same vincity when Boston traveled to GS and Denver......really the over is becoming attractive

Dallas @ SA: +5.01

The dog is 9-1 ATS the past 10 meetings.

Mavs +6 -110 {4units} +4.00 ML +202 {1/2unit}+1.01

I dont see how when these teams met it should be any worse then -3. The dog has won both meetings this year and SA got Dallas early when they werent playing well. Now everyone expects a *HOT* Dallas team to lose in SA cause of the Spurs reputation. Spurs are 2-6-1 ATS past 9 they are only 3-4 SU past 7 defetaing only Utah....the wheels iMo are coming off whether ist the flu bug or whatever.....why fade Dallas now..?? Shouldnt they be overvalued at this point.????? Dallas has won 4 of the past 6 in SA osing the others by 1 and 2 pts. Also the biggest spread was 5 previously which makes Dallas 6-0 ATS past 6 in SA!!! Looking at an over...

Over 205 -105 Milwaukee {3units} -3.15
Over 105 -105 Bucks {1unit} -1.05

Basically its the offensive minded Bucks...actually Cavs appear to be righting the ship and Milw does have payback on its mind but has lost 2 of 3...expect both teams to break 100...

Utah @ Houston :

Would have to lean Utah but the line is fair and Jazz have not played well away ...already defeating Houston at home.....so see no value in the dog...
 
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barmoycm said:
YO man im going to the wizards game right now and im gonna bet the over either now or before game.. i saw y ou say u were waiting ... do u anticipate it to fall??

I also have a Treo with broadband access so i could place the bet on pinny right before tip butr let me know asap
Click to expand...

Sorry bar was typing away....I would say that its probably not got move much either way 213 seems fine at one point I thought it might drop....enjoy sorry for the late reply..
 
JPicks said:
I think Hill and Dooling are still out.


Coach Brian Hill says Grant Hill (sore left foot) and Keyon Dooling (right Achilles') likely will miss their third consecutive game on Friday.
Click to expand...

Thanks, guess I read bad info....now I have to rethink that game...
 
Thanks Duy...its all on Mikki Moore I guess! BOL bro

farm...have to check it out...

Thanks MX...I have to see alittle more from ORL before I get excited ...had them vs Miami and took the +5 vs LAC...BOL

Phatprep...trying to do my best to catch up got a late start today...my biggest concern theer was Arenas somewhatstruggling last year vs LAC combined with his shoulder.?? As well as how competitive the game will be...which since LAC swept them last year with a smiliar lineup I am expecting a solid game.....not loving anything yet.. BOL

Thanks Tuck....actually will not be suprised to see Tor win late...buzzer beater , etc...so just hope they are trailing after 3Q!! Good Luck bro!
 
Bets4Bucks said:
clips/wiz line just jumped to 216 at betcris!! any thoughts?
Click to expand...

probably a good sign for an over backer...wouldnt change my opinion much....LAC defensively on the road has allowed a ton of pts this season and a team like wash should be in 110-115 range at home vs them as I said my concern was LAC score? I expected this game to crack 220...BOL!
 
7PM 1st Q: -3.99 & +1.91

Bobcats +3.5 -110 {1u} ML +203 {1/2u} -1.60
Over 47.5 -121 Orl {1u} +1.00
Hawks +@ +105 {1u} ML +178 {1/2u} -1.50
Wiz -2 -119 {1u} -1.19
Ov 55.5 -104 {1u} +1.00

Philly +2.5 -103 {1u} ML +178 {1/2u}+1.89
Mavs +2 -107 {1u} ML +143 {1/2u} -1.50
Under 54 -109 Memphis{1u} -1.09
Jazz +112 {1u} -1.
Cavs +134 {1u} -1.
Ov 51.5 -116 Milw {1u} +1.





gonna grab a bite to eat be back in a few....BTW I have no opinion on the Houston/Utah total..sorry farm...
 
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Last minute NCAAB : should get involved at Half...love MAAC hoops..

Marist -12 -110 {4units} +4.00
Over 147.5 -105 {3units} -3.15
 
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Sometimes I just swear someone has a Sports Alamanac!!

How does the 1st H in orl go from -4.5 to -5 as the game total stays exactly the same at 8.5.....and down 3 with 1.7 secs before half Orl hits a 28ft three by Dwight Howard to win ORL the 1st Half......Just how does that happen and its sad I see these odd moves and I always know the outcome before it happens....to bad I couldnt pass entirely!
 
There will be no value in Memphis 2nd H over....not when they break 120 by half.....overthought that one...
 
Why do I like the Nets? Cause they started 18-0 1st 6 minutes and have been outscored 21 pts last 18....they shot their load to early
 
Fuck it switching gears after that dead 2nd Q:

Under 107.5 -110 memphis {3units} -3.21

They shot lights out 1st q and then struggled mightily..


Nothing like total fucking up a gameyou had correct!.
 
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I'll be back to finalize and comment but might be distracted...


Over 200 -110 NYK {2u} +2.00
Over 202 -108 NYK {3u} +3.00 (nice roll)

Changed my mind on NY that line is low as Seattle was -6.5 to Boston recently and NY was +6 in Portland...so I will wait till half and justroot for points! This line should have ben at least 205 IMO...


Suns -19 -110 {3u}WIn +3.00
-11 -111 1st H {1u} +1.00

This Miami team is in real trouble....Mourning battling the flu , Wade , Walker and Posey Out and Coach Riley...Raja Bell is out which means more minutes for gunners like James Jones and Barbosa....if this was a college game the line would be 25 to 30...

Over 103.5 -110 1st H Pho {3u} +3.00

It appeared Miami wanted to run last game getting 87 shots...uhmm Suns love to push the pace

Under 217 -110 LAL {3u} -3.30
Und 109 -105 1st h {2u} -2.10

Lakers off that huge game seeing a huge total.....Den doesnt have a great offense like it seems when you look at ppg.....


Team Totals

Over 98.5 -112 NYK team {2u} +2.00
Over 103.5 -106 Sea {1u}-1.06

Under 111.5 -111 LAL team {2u} -2.22

1st Q +1.91
NYK +1.5 -105 {1u} ML +141 {1u}+2.41
Over 51 -111 NYK {1u} +1.00
Over 51.5 -123 Pho {1.5u} +1.50
Und 53.5 +113 Den{1u} -1.00
Den ML +139 {1.5u} +1.5 +105 {1/2u} -2.00
 
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Yeah it was close i actually had added some more on the over then I posted..I actually felt comfortable the whole time...

If anything I would go 2nd H under in PHO as they will seperate!

BOL..no 2nd H plays for me..
 
Stayed awt from 2nd H plays.....I had played NYK then changed my mind. Obviously regretting the switch now. Us NYers should know though two quality halves of basketball for us is a stretch!
 
Since 1/1/07:

Sides/Totals : 20-13 +26.76u
1st Q: -1.78u
1st H: -0.78u
2nd H -7.45u
Team Totals : +9.91 u
 
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