Friday Lines/Discussion

[JPicks]

NBA - Jan 09
4:05 PM
801 MEMPHIS
802 TORONTO

4:05 PM
803 ATLANTA +5½-110 o192-110
804 ORLANDO -5½-110 u192-110

4:05 PM
805 CHARLOTTE +6-110 o190½-110
806 PHILADELPHIA -6-110 u190½-110

5:05 PM
807 BOSTON +4½-110 o183-110
808 CLEVELAND -4½-110 u183-110

5:05 PM
809 HOUSTON -7½-110 o195-110
810 OKLAHOMA CITY +7½-110 u195-110

5:05 PM
811 LA CLIPPERS +14½-110 o184-110
812 NEW ORLEANS -14½-110 u184-110

5:35 PM
813 NEW JERSEY
814 MILWAUKEE

5:35 PM
815 WASHINGTON +6-110 o197½-110
816 CHICAGO -6-110 u197½-110

6:05 PM
817 DETROIT
818 DENVER

7:05 PM
819 MIAMI -4½-110 o192½-110
820 SACRAMENTO +4½-110 u192½-110

7:35 PM
821 INDIANA
822 LA LAKERS

7:35 PM
823 DALLAS
824 PHOENIX

 

[JPicks]

Somebody fill me in on the Houston #. Last of a 5 game road trip with the Knicks tomorrow at home for the Rockets. 7.5 still seems kinda short to me. Figured 8.5,9 would be fair.

Also interested to look at the Hawks a bit more.

 

[J.C.!!!]

Boston @ this number big!!

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Somebody fill me in on the Houston #. 7.5 still seems kinda short to me. Figured 8.5,9 would be fair.

Obviously the punters have caught up to the fact that Okie is a covering machine, which will happen to a team when they've won 6 straight ATS at home. As long as they kept covering on the road and failing at home, they were bound to stay under the radar, is how I see it. But that MO ceased to exist 3 weeks ago.

 

[tuck321]

Think with Houston you should know who is starting before betting. Big swing between Ron and Tracy.

 

[JPicks]

Obviously the punters have caught up to the fact that Okie is a covering machine, which will happen to a team when they've won 6 straight ATS at home. As long as they kept covering on the road and failing at home, they were bound to stay under the radar, is how I see it. But that MO ceased to exist 3 weeks ago.

That's exactly what I was getting at. I think I owe have my winnings to the Thunder this year, but at some point even the crappy teams become overvalued. Not sure this is the spot to jump in on fading them though.

Think with Houston you should know who is starting before betting. Big swing between Ron and Tracy.

Absolutely 100% agree. :shake:

 

[GWarner27]

Somebody fill me in on the Houston #. Last of a 5 game road trip with the Knicks tomorrow at home for the Rockets. 7.5 still seems kinda short to me. Figured 8.5,9 would be fair.

Also interested to look at the Hawks a bit more.

i think a little differently from BC on this one.

I'm thinking Vegas saw a SU win from Houston against what has been made out to best team in the NBA, even without Tracy McGrady. Along with this comes what people think is a bad OKC team, which just got blown out by the Wolves, yet is a covering machine at home. I think the oddsmakers are setting up a trap here as people will think there is value in Houston and they're trying to suck people in.

...other leans are to fade Indiana although i'm sure the Lakers are laying about 15, and the Sixers who are playing another team in Charlotte who got blown out recently. My new thing is to fade teams off of SU wins as dogs, and any of those 3 can work out tomorrow i think, hopefully the one i pick is right :cheers:

 

[SF_capper]

I made the line Houston -7, altho I expected a bigger number. I think its half adjustment, just as every team needs after beating Boston as its impossible to not have a bit of a hangover. I think also, Tmac will sit? I'm starting to think to fade houston when tmac is in, and ride them when he's out. He's just not in the right state physically to justify rthe line move he commands. When he's there, he was the ball too much for a half injured guards who's game depends on athelticism

I kinda lean OKC, thinking they'll have a hangover from the boston W, but hate that they're 1-3 so far, and would need this w to somewhat salvage the 5 game road trip. Same time, think if it gets a bit out of hand, they'll fade to rest up for 4/5 2m at home against running team in NY. Think a 2 game fade chase would be in order for them, but I likely won't do it

 

[divol]

I see this game in OKC just can't get out of your mind guys. If I didn't know better, I would think this is NBA Finals or at least the only game on the card tonight

 

[linewatcher]

im liking the cavs and the hawks on friday...

Cavs have the obvious revenge angle, and since they pretty much own boston ats and are coming off that convincing beatdown of Charlotte, i don't see them falthering here....

Hawks off a recent revenge and can hang tough against the Magic...

 

[BetCrimes1984]

re: the OKA/HOU game -

there has been very few wins for road teams by 9+ point margins dating back over a week - 7 in the last 10 playing days.
In the 10 playing days before those 10, there were 15.
In the 10 playing days before those 10, there were 17.
In the 10 playing days before those 10, there were 15.
In the 10 playing days before those 10, there were 18.
And on it goes.

In other words, there has been an unusual derth of road team SU wins by 9+ points recently .... big card of games tomorrow so logically you'd expect, in light of such a derth, there to be at least 1 such result. The Okie/Houston match-up is by far the leading candidate to put up such a result.

 

[edou1x]

i know a math play system that hits 70% ATS and that say to play on the rockets -7.
this system produces about 100 plays every season.
My only concern is that it says don't play if a starter is injured and TMac is "probable"
For the 1999 season ,record was 60-25 ATS, for 2000 season, record was 73-30 and for the 2008-2009 season, record is 11-4 ATS at the moment.

also if detroit opens at +6 pts against denver or more which i'm not convinced it will be a play. if the bobcats were +7,5 or more, would have been a play but it's only 6 at the moment

 

[tuck321]

Seem to be a minority. only side I am considering is OKC.

 

[GWarner27]

Seem to be a minority. only side I am considering is OKC.

i already played it. :shake:

 

[sportjunky]

Calderon is OUT

 

[Ramathorn02]

Friday in game?

WTF is up with the Celtics?

 

[Ramathorn02]

I can't be the first person to think this, but Rondo looks like Lil Bow wow.