Friday Discussion Thread
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Fuck I’m so tired I can’t get thru a game without dropping phone or planting face in my Chromebook, lol. I’m gonna put on my fav ncaa fb podcast and chill for a bit. Give me a few hours and I’ll get after these games, I’ve found I miss way to much and my numbers come out like a half retarded lab rat made them! Better to get tad more rest before I jump into this bitch. Maybe I’ll go spread some money over my bed and roll around in it!! anyone else feel free to jump this shit off and I’ll start chiming in once I can focus!! Or don’t and I’ll carry this shit in a few hours you lazy fucks!! 
2daBank
Voice of Reason
So Reynaldo showed up and showed out his 1st game back vs Phillies, that was no fluke cause then he went and fanned 7 vs the nats and despite nats many issues they are not a high swing and miss team, there no doubt Lopez the guy he been as a starter all year. The depth he got on his offspeed vs Philly was insane, he got a 20% swinging strike in that game! Philly only made context in 14% the 33% of pitches they swung at out the zone, that is a insane number, like even if he pitches that well again it very hard to see that kinda number when on avg teams hit about 50% the pitches they swing at out the zone. That certainly won’t hurt him overall, it might allow him to go deeper as there not being any damage done when guys make contact wit those pitches! The question is just more about the k’s, Im shocked to see his 5.5 k number actually getting juice going to the under. Right now he +115 to go over 5.5! I took out his 3 games before injury cause I don’t think those games give us a accurate look as he clearly needed a break, if you eliminate those 3 games he has went over 5.5 k’s in 12 of 18, just fanned 10 Phillies and they wanna give us plus money.
In fairness I thought at the time of the last matchup Philly was swinging bats poorly and really struggling with spin which he dominated them with, since then I mentioned during kc series Phillies look like they have kinda broken out of that, I been hearing they were doing tons of work hitting spin off the machines and it appears to have paid off. I always think it disadvantage pitcher seeing the same team so soon after a dominating performance but at same time this number is very tough to pass. Lopez hasn’t pitched at Philly since becoming a starter, so there is the potential of a short ugly outing in that place, that said I don’t know the numbers far as hotter friendliness and I gotta assume Philly bandbox is more hitter friendly than atl the ball does fly at that atl park so maybe the difference isn’t staggering (anyone feels like posting a list of ballparks in order of pitcher or hitter friendliness that be awesome!).
Anyways after all that babbling I don’t think I can pass up plus money on Lopez to fan 6.after all Charlie Morton old ass managed 7 last night and his curve doesn’t have nearly the depth of Lopez off speed.
Now on to the Ranger Suarez side which also has some things a baseball dork like me find interesting. As any Braves or Phillies fan prob knows, or ppl like me who just know! Ranger has been a Braves killer in reg season and especially playoffs where he has earned his stripes! That said I find it super odd this is prob the worst lineup Braves have been putting in the field in last 3 years but in his 2 starts vs them they are prob his worst starts he has ever had vs atl! They wernt complete disasters just much worse than we have grown accustomed to. Last time he pitched in atl it was pretty bad, 5 innings 5 earned. Much earlier in the year he had a 5 inning 3 run outing which isn’t terrible, it at least keeps your very good offense in the game. What I find strange is he fanned 7 in both these start. Not like hearing Braves struck out 7x in 5 innings is shocking, when healthy not many teams swing out their shows strikeouts be damned like the Braves (they might wanna stop blaming the 4 days off for winning div and look at this as why they generally get whipped in playoffs! Playoff pitchers not leaving many meatballs for you clowns to close your eyes and hit out the stadium!!!) anyways the number for Ranger is a heavy juiced -175 to over 4.5 but there some things to take into account here, the 1st 2 meetings Riley was still the Braves 3rd baseman and being one the lead leaders of the swing out your shows, strikeouts be damned club Ranger stuck him out a whopping 5x in those 2 games so that takes his 7k’s per right down to 4.5 per (or the number they have listed), obviously someone else has to take those Riley at bats and we know that will be Urshela who unlike Riley strikes out very little, in fact compared to the leader he strikes out very little at bout 15% this year! Ranger has gotten him once in 4 career at bats but I think it be foolish to assume a k out of him here. We also know merrifield wasn’t in either those lineups and he strikes out even less than urshela! Braves have added solar back to the mix tho and that guy has never been afraid to swing with his eyes closed!! To me this all adds up to the ppl pounding this ranger ov 4.5 k’s with heavy juice right now are making a mistake, they might get lucky and it cashes, fact is the number is about spot on imo so they got a 50/50 shot, you just don’t have to be a math wizard to know paying -175 for a coin flip will get you broke faster than half the forum will be after a month the NFL season! (taking a small break from this cap for a quick public serivice announcement hope any you young pups out there take seriously, think I’ve earned at least that so here it is;;;;
sorry but it true, and I’m not saying I’m any better you just won’t catch me betting more that 20 bucks a game the 1st month+ the nfl if I bet that shit at all! The time for making nfl money was the last 3 weeks while most ppl where saying “gee I can’t wait for week 1, nothing thrills me more than betting a sport where 80% the games come down to a ref call or a turnover!”!!! Sorry If that offended anyone but it the fucking truth! Please don’t quote me to tell us how you crush the NFL every year, there basically 3 ppl in that category, #1 liars most of them can’t help it they actually believe the nonsense the say!! #2 guys who very new to the game and as I once thought as a young and dumb kid after a few incredible seasons I was somewhat god like picking nfl games, sorry to inform you there will be a terrible time of humbling coming your way sooner than you think, it will not be a cheap lesson either, I’d say have some money buried in yard but you will dig that up and keep firing till it gone else!!! Then #3 the very select few who are patient, discipled, prob smarter than me and def you, some who actually post here and win money at it most years! How they do it fuck If I know?? I believe knowing oneself is one the most important lessons in life and I know I can’t consistently beat nfl like I can other sports! I can run hot, sometimes have a great season, but I can also have my woman eating nicrowave dinners wanting to leave my ass! I have found if I just keep it as degen fun betting very small compared to other sports and not sweating losing a bit and pay attention there seasons I can get hot late in the year, the trick is not being so broke by that point you can actually win money still!! But hey if you a big time NFL winner just make sure you sign up thru one the CTG sponsors so they can get a small cut of your umm “winnings”! Now back to the capping!!
So as I was saying 4.5 might look like a give on Ranger I actually think it a overpriced coin flip, if that thing goes to 5.5 I might seriously consider the under and there is nothing I hate more than a under k prop!! What I’m kinda thinking here is since I believe it obvious Ranger will be facing at last 2-3 guys who more prone to roll over on his pitches for easy outs or a much needed double play, I can’t help but look at his 16.5 out total at only -110 to the over. He has went 5.2 or more in 14 of his 22 starts, we have outlined why his starts vs the Braves this year been cut short and why he shouldn’t face that problem here, I didn’t love the fact he was taken out his last start vs kc with a very low pitch count but it appears he was getting into a bit of trouble in 5th, still little odd but nothing to get all worked up bout I don’t think.
What I think we have here a pitcher who is very comfy getting ground outs and working efficiently vs a Braves lineup he really prob wanted to avoid contact when they were loaded with mashers 1-9 but now this a different Braves team, could he punch 5 or 6 absolutely but at -175 some quick math will tell you ya gotta hit that play basically 65% the time to not make shit! Not my kind of play! However if we think this lineup offers opportunities for quicker outs in spots he was once taking 5-6-7 pitches to strike a guy out making a move on iv 16.5 outs makes a lot more damn sense cause if we hit that 60% or better we raking in the cash!
So my super long winded take on the Philly game is I lean Philly but not interested laying the price. I think we have 2 great numbers to net these starters at
Lopez ov 5.5 k’s +115
Ranger ov 16.5 outs -110
In fairness I thought at the time of the last matchup Philly was swinging bats poorly and really struggling with spin which he dominated them with, since then I mentioned during kc series Phillies look like they have kinda broken out of that, I been hearing they were doing tons of work hitting spin off the machines and it appears to have paid off. I always think it disadvantage pitcher seeing the same team so soon after a dominating performance but at same time this number is very tough to pass. Lopez hasn’t pitched at Philly since becoming a starter, so there is the potential of a short ugly outing in that place, that said I don’t know the numbers far as hotter friendliness and I gotta assume Philly bandbox is more hitter friendly than atl the ball does fly at that atl park so maybe the difference isn’t staggering (anyone feels like posting a list of ballparks in order of pitcher or hitter friendliness that be awesome!).
Anyways after all that babbling I don’t think I can pass up plus money on Lopez to fan 6.after all Charlie Morton old ass managed 7 last night and his curve doesn’t have nearly the depth of Lopez off speed.
Now on to the Ranger Suarez side which also has some things a baseball dork like me find interesting. As any Braves or Phillies fan prob knows, or ppl like me who just know! Ranger has been a Braves killer in reg season and especially playoffs where he has earned his stripes! That said I find it super odd this is prob the worst lineup Braves have been putting in the field in last 3 years but in his 2 starts vs them they are prob his worst starts he has ever had vs atl! They wernt complete disasters just much worse than we have grown accustomed to. Last time he pitched in atl it was pretty bad, 5 innings 5 earned. Much earlier in the year he had a 5 inning 3 run outing which isn’t terrible, it at least keeps your very good offense in the game. What I find strange is he fanned 7 in both these start. Not like hearing Braves struck out 7x in 5 innings is shocking, when healthy not many teams swing out their shows strikeouts be damned like the Braves (they might wanna stop blaming the 4 days off for winning div and look at this as why they generally get whipped in playoffs! Playoff pitchers not leaving many meatballs for you clowns to close your eyes and hit out the stadium!!!) anyways the number for Ranger is a heavy juiced -175 to over 4.5 but there some things to take into account here, the 1st 2 meetings Riley was still the Braves 3rd baseman and being one the lead leaders of the swing out your shows, strikeouts be damned club Ranger stuck him out a whopping 5x in those 2 games so that takes his 7k’s per right down to 4.5 per (or the number they have listed), obviously someone else has to take those Riley at bats and we know that will be Urshela who unlike Riley strikes out very little, in fact compared to the leader he strikes out very little at bout 15% this year! Ranger has gotten him once in 4 career at bats but I think it be foolish to assume a k out of him here. We also know merrifield wasn’t in either those lineups and he strikes out even less than urshela! Braves have added solar back to the mix tho and that guy has never been afraid to swing with his eyes closed!! To me this all adds up to the ppl pounding this ranger ov 4.5 k’s with heavy juice right now are making a mistake, they might get lucky and it cashes, fact is the number is about spot on imo so they got a 50/50 shot, you just don’t have to be a math wizard to know paying -175 for a coin flip will get you broke faster than half the forum will be after a month the NFL season!
(taking a small break from this cap for a quick public serivice announcement hope any you young pups out there take seriously, think I’ve earned at least that so here it is;;;;sorry but it true, and I’m not saying I’m any better you just won’t catch me betting more that 20 bucks a game the 1st month+ the nfl if I bet that shit at all! The time for making nfl money was the last 3 weeks while most ppl where saying “gee I can’t wait for week 1, nothing thrills me more than betting a sport where 80% the games come down to a ref call or a turnover!”!!! Sorry If that offended anyone but it the fucking truth! Please don’t quote me to tell us how you crush the NFL every year, there basically 3 ppl in that category, #1 liars most of them can’t help it they actually believe the nonsense the say!! #2 guys who very new to the game and as I once thought as a young and dumb kid after a few incredible seasons I was somewhat god like picking nfl games, sorry to inform you there will be a terrible time of humbling coming your way sooner than you think, it will not be a cheap lesson either, I’d say have some money buried in yard but you will dig that up and keep firing till it gone else!!! Then #3 the very select few who are patient, discipled, prob smarter than me and def you, some who actually post here and win money at it most years! How they do it fuck If I know?? I believe knowing oneself is one the most important lessons in life and I know I can’t consistently beat nfl like I can other sports! I can run hot, sometimes have a great season, but I can also have my woman eating nicrowave dinners wanting to leave my ass! I have found if I just keep it as degen fun betting very small compared to other sports and not sweating losing a bit and pay attention there seasons I can get hot late in the year, the trick is not being so broke by that point you can actually win money still!! But hey if you a big time NFL winner just make sure you sign up thru one the CTG sponsors so they can get a small cut of your umm “winnings”! Now back to the capping!!
So as I was saying 4.5 might look like a give on Ranger I actually think it a overpriced coin flip, if that thing goes to 5.5 I might seriously consider the under and there is nothing I hate more than a under k prop!! What I’m kinda thinking here is since I believe it obvious Ranger will be facing at last 2-3 guys who more prone to roll over on his pitches for easy outs or a much needed double play, I can’t help but look at his 16.5 out total at only -110 to the over. He has went 5.2 or more in 14 of his 22 starts, we have outlined why his starts vs the Braves this year been cut short and why he shouldn’t face that problem here, I didn’t love the fact he was taken out his last start vs kc with a very low pitch count but it appears he was getting into a bit of trouble in 5th, still little odd but nothing to get all worked up bout I don’t think.
What I think we have here a pitcher who is very comfy getting ground outs and working efficiently vs a Braves lineup he really prob wanted to avoid contact when they were loaded with mashers 1-9 but now this a different Braves team, could he punch 5 or 6 absolutely but at -175 some quick math will tell you ya gotta hit that play basically 65% the time to not make shit! Not my kind of play! However if we think this lineup offers opportunities for quicker outs in spots he was once taking 5-6-7 pitches to strike a guy out making a move on iv 16.5 outs makes a lot more damn sense cause if we hit that 60% or better we raking in the cash!
So my super long winded take on the Philly game is I lean Philly but not interested laying the price. I think we have 2 great numbers to net these starters at
Lopez ov 5.5 k’s +115
Ranger ov 16.5 outs -110
2daBank
Voice of Reason
That hurts. The reason i avoided them
And played the 1st half under last night was I’m a big believer in that stat I saw last weekend that kc is 19-4 against det and chisox and .500 vs everyone else. Now when they play the guardians and twins I’m gonna be all bout that plus money cause I think they all fall into this category and I think royals have what it takes to knock them both off, but when they go someplace like Houston the price is warranted. Dont be fooled by the big sexy number, this is all new to kc, the stros been bout this playoff stretch life for the last decade, and Turner is very very close, as long alruve, bregs, and Yordan in lineup Kc will be lucky to win 1 in this series imho.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
If dodgers lose the series w walker and marte out they choking asses might as well schedule a vacation rather than show up to play snakes iin plsyoffs!!! I think more important than winning this series I think this a big series for snakes pitchers to show they just boy back!! Lad lineup Hurley and you don’t want them leaving this series thinking they can hit your starters!!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Cmon guys, still nobody chiming in? My guy @peelpub94 at least gave me the thumbs up, I mean I know those post were A+ but still nice to know someone read them!
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Still finding it extremely hard to concentrate lingering Covid bullshit.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I'm feeling out of sorts today too, maybe too much sleep the last couple days
2daBank
Voice of Reason
We gonna find out if this Mets team really wants to play playoff baseball or like most year they appear more concerned with starting their vacations! (I ain’t judging, if I had their money I’d be quick as I could to be partying with umbrella drinks and dirty naked freaks! But I ain’t the one paying them or shelling out money to support them!!?. No secret I can never figure this team out, no shame in dropping 2 of 3 to snakes at home, those Mfers ain’t lost a series since June! I thought they showed well and that was after taking a series from pads). Thing is none that really matters unless these guys go to the south side of Chicago (or maybe it the north, I always get that mixed up, blasphemy I know and I was born in Chicago but I moved to stl young so fuck ya’ll!! lol). Wherever the fuck white Sox play if these Mets care bout making playoffs for a change they come into this series and they don’t fuck off with this garbage minor league team! I don’t even want to see more than one garbage ass barely win games like the dog shit rangers just did! So I don’t like being a fucking square and my personal opinion is there very few rarer things in sports than playing mlb favs -200 or greater! I will admit we have a posted here who has proven you can win doing such a thing but again “know thyself” and I seriously don’t hit -170 favs at a higher clip than +120 dogs so for me personally it be really stupid to be running around laying big juice on a random baseball game!! I know one thing, even the said poster who has shown me his way can work (ya’ll should know it @Wiretowire as we only have maybe 10 good mlb players!) he is selective with it and doesn’t just go throwing -250 or more shit at a board, plus he does the thing where he takes +2.5 runs I’ve actually started to use in my sept capping when the +2.5 is lower than -200 (any poster I’ve borrowed a idea from I have massive respect for!!).
All that said I’m gonna trust this muts team different than past versions. I don’t mind Megil being called back up to start, I actually think he has shown enough talent to be a 4-5th starter on a solid staff in the past, what I don’t like is walks what made him regress, im
Often a fan these guys when they come back but looking at his minor league starts the god damn walks were still there!! Sure woulda liked to see him, ya know, FIX THAT! The good news for him here is Cws only has a couple lefty bats I trust to take good at bats and work walls so it not like they can stack a nightmare lineup be him and he should punch out plenty of guys after a walk! But I do think we gotta chalk up 5+ innings at best and 2-3 runs cause walks have a habit of scoring, in fact that the best way to keep shit teams in games, see the way cards been winning some games lately! Lol.
So then the question is just Mets offense who still swinging the bats strong vs one Jonathan cannon, this kid is basically a younger totally opposite version of Megil! He staying in league cause he big giving out a bunch of free passes (although lately he has regressed), he can’t give up walks cause when he comes over the plate guys are gonna hit the ball hard unless he able to trick them with his heavy mix of basically everything but a 4 seamer! He throws a ton of sinker, slider, cutter. The good news for him only limdor and Marte have much success vs the slide piece the bad news for him a bunch of Mets hitters crush sinkers and cutters! Something tells me he will have a very difficult time trying to throw 50+ sliders without walks going way up of him hanging bout 10 of them!! Mets should beat this kid like he stole something after having to face very good pitching the last 2 series!!
So these are way out my comfort zone: you won’t see me make 10 plays a year like this but I guess im drinking nuts kool aid, I ain’t ready to just pound the glass but we start with a little taste
Muts ff tt ov 2.5 -125
Muts gm -1.5 -135
Let’s see if these losers lay an egg on me! Certainly wouldn’t shock me!
All that said I’m gonna trust this muts team different than past versions. I don’t mind Megil being called back up to start, I actually think he has shown enough talent to be a 4-5th starter on a solid staff in the past, what I don’t like is walks what made him regress, im
Often a fan these guys when they come back but looking at his minor league starts the god damn walks were still there!! Sure woulda liked to see him, ya know, FIX THAT! The good news for him here is Cws only has a couple lefty bats I trust to take good at bats and work walls so it not like they can stack a nightmare lineup be him and he should punch out plenty of guys after a walk! But I do think we gotta chalk up 5+ innings at best and 2-3 runs cause walks have a habit of scoring, in fact that the best way to keep shit teams in games, see the way cards been winning some games lately! Lol.
So then the question is just Mets offense who still swinging the bats strong vs one Jonathan cannon, this kid is basically a younger totally opposite version of Megil! He staying in league cause he big giving out a bunch of free passes (although lately he has regressed), he can’t give up walks cause when he comes over the plate guys are gonna hit the ball hard unless he able to trick them with his heavy mix of basically everything but a 4 seamer! He throws a ton of sinker, slider, cutter. The good news for him only limdor and Marte have much success vs the slide piece the bad news for him a bunch of Mets hitters crush sinkers and cutters! Something tells me he will have a very difficult time trying to throw 50+ sliders without walks going way up of him hanging bout 10 of them!! Mets should beat this kid like he stole something after having to face very good pitching the last 2 series!!
So these are way out my comfort zone: you won’t see me make 10 plays a year like this but I guess im drinking nuts kool aid, I ain’t ready to just pound the glass but we start with a little taste
Muts ff tt ov 2.5 -125
Muts gm -1.5 -135
Let’s see if these losers lay an egg on me! Certainly wouldn’t shock me!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Shit so crazy, always been an under team and park for me. Obviously this year they not starting any the many stud pitchers they have had come thru, except Edward Cabrera who’s stats don’t make him look like much but I’ll go to my grave saying he has Ace ability. Been pretty good identifying when to bet him, remember we hit his k prop and 2 alt props paying all way to to +275 his last start! In fucking Coors! The guy is an inconsistent flake but every time he goes to one the most feared parks in league for pitchers the guy pitches a gem!! If rox had any sense (which they don’t) they would be on the horn all offseason to acquire this guy! I’m sure they could get for the cheap also!!
Anyways not the point, they are trotting out bunch of kids that don’t appear close to ready for the bigs, can’t log enough innings, then their crappy pen they trading anything useful out of is being overworked! Little more shocking for the most part they been scoring a decent share of the runs too! Maybe teams are coming down and the pitchers taking in the Miami night life?? lol. I’m just not the type to blindly bet something but I would certainly be capping their home games with an over lean or simply pass if I didn’t like the over. Crazy stuff!
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Mets have the appearance of a very tight group, having fun, focused and playing loose. Edwin Diaz will be the wild card. Having Marte back changes the line up dramatically. If Nimmo can be 75% of what he was right before ASB, they will be in the playoffs.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’ve actually gotta in a pretty decent pattern of sleeping from 12ish to 6ish, not straight thru or anything but it been getting little better ever day and think all the meds I’m on has started to fix the breathing issue, 2 nights ago didn’t wake up w cough or needing inhaler/breathing treatment at all, last night it happened once but since I’m feeling better I prob did something dumb like smoked a few more cigs. Working on quitting the smoking but only way I can do that is with black and mild cigars. I mostly just chew on them but will light and take a couple puffs throughout day. Generally 2 a day keeps me from smoking cigs and I try my best to only inhale a little! Lol Anyways it’s kinda nice but then I’m more rushed for capping, I’m used to having 3-4 hours while everyone else sleeps! Lol. Plus now dam ncaa fb thrown in. Still learning to use my time wisely as still have to take care the house, Theresa, the puppy we got not long before she was diagnosed! I’ve actually learned a trick for this little obnoxious fucker that can jump like a damn dear and always wants to play. That one day the little prick ate my whole bag of just delivered weed gummies, fucked his ass up! Couldn’t walk without a lean and fall, he was def scared, I wanted to be mad but I been thru where he was so didn’t have the heart to be mad til next day anyways! But now when I cut one my gunnies in half I try to give him other half, only thing I’ve never seen him not eat he musta remembered that shit! But then I smear it on a milk bone, next thing ya know he lays on my lap while I cap! We went outside to go potty no acting like a fool training for Olympics just did his thing and came in! It’s worth the extra few bucks a day im turning Gizmo into a pot head, now my best little buddy isn’t so hyper active!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I think I agree and I’m willing to throw money at it tonight but if they act like clowns and drop one game this series I’ll be back to washing my hands of them. Winners sweep this series and not one game should be particularly close!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’m kinda running into time crunch here cause I need to do ncaa and get to try and make Theresa eat something whivh ain’t fucking easy!
Anyways if @peelpub94 or anyone else has a second look at Houck out total vs tigers, quick glance sure seems like 6+ shouldn’t a any kind of issue for him, all the spin he throws and lack of fastballs makes me think he has some very quick innings but I don’t want to miss something. Om surface 17.5 -120 for over feels cheap!
Anyways if @peelpub94 or anyone else has a second look at Houck out total vs tigers, quick glance sure seems like 6+ shouldn’t a any kind of issue for him, all the spin he throws and lack of fastballs makes me think he has some very quick innings but I don’t want to miss something. Om surface 17.5 -120 for over feels cheap!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Jfc that a balsy total they hung in washigton with the way scrubbies are swinging the bats! And it even down to 8 in some spots with I’m assuming every goofball imaginable playing the over! We did see a hot Yankees team got into Nats park and have their runs drastically limited by some crusty washed vets and a young kid who had been getting clobbered! I strongly believe like lots of things in baseball pitching is contagious! Jake Irvin isn’t a total bum, he also isn’t a guy you want to trust to blank a hot lineup either! Cubs can’t possibly continue scoring runs at this clip! Mentally they could have a bit a letdown today cause hey should trust the jap pitcher will hold Nats offense down . I really want to play the Ff u4.5 here but maybe it to much a gamble?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
There no way I’m gonna waste 5 min my precious time trying to figure out what in the flying fuck Taj will pitch like? I dunno if he has some kinda or underlying issue or maybe he just has hit a wall but he has really stunk up the joint ever since I proclaimed him the next rays ass, way to make me look like a total asshoke Taj, I hope pads beat the brakes off you and at plus money it is super tempting to just play pads but they kinda been annoying me lately! Lol
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
I think Boston destroys Detroit here. I am sick of Detroit and their record of late. They're not good. I'm sick, tired, and pissed off, so there is minimal merit to my capping right now, call this an angry cap if you will.
Casey Mize hasn't pitched since June. Boston can't win at home for one reason or another, and much better on the road.
Boston -1.5 +134
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
No rain tonight
2daBank
Voice of Reason
lol. There was a month around asb I made a killing on tigers, I really thought before trade deadline they were just as good the other Al central teams they just got off to such a bad start at plate they couldn’t recover. But then Greene went on IL for a minute and they started shopping guys and I stopped following them, I will say after @B.A.R. announced That overpaid clown show Beaz got hurt for year I thought it could be a blessing in disguise. Dunno what mize been doing w his life but at one time he had stuff and he is a lefty which Sox lineup isn’t built the best for. Im not interested in being on some grudge shit, it’s fair to say tigers been beating a lot of bad times, what I’m interested in is can they hit that odd pitch mix houck
Throws with heavy dose of cuttts, splitters, and sinkers? He pitched a very easy 7 innings vs them right around the time they started hitting. He has went 6+ in 7 of last 8, and 20 of his 26 starts!! To me the value lies in his outs over 17.5 -120 unless im missing something?
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
6 out of last 7 he's gone 18. Jack fucking Kochanowicz just blanked the Tigers yesterday. Going with my fuck Detroit, Boston will kill them tonight angry feel, I say 17.5 is good.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Mize is a righty!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I really dunno how Fedde gets thru this lineup 2x clean? In that bandbox even w lower temps fly balls to right are home runs !! Sure feels like a good day for his lowest hr:fb of his career to regress a bit! Or he does that thing he does where he pitches around everyone, gets enough guys to hit pitches out the zone and he at 100 pitches after 5,, those only 2 outcomes I see here., yanks Ff tt ov 2.5 is only -115, It either that or his under 15.5 outs -125 as he skirts around trouble. I don’t see it tho, I wish yanks manager would stack more lefties here but their plenty in the lineup, I see 3+ walks and I think at least 1-2 balls go boom over the short porch after those walks.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
God dammit. I have always done that with him! Lmao
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Dunno why I’ve always wanted to make him a lefty? I dunno if it his name or I look at his stuff and think “that gotta be a lefty or how he in bigs!”, lol. Forget which but this like the 10th times in his career someone has had to tell me he a righty! At least I didn’t waste 20 min capping him as a lhp this time!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
They traded away 3 of their 4 best lhp hitters
Same and greatly appreciate your time and effort Bank!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Why not take that +130 on pads Ff? Has Taj done anything lately shown signs of getting it back? He sure being priced like he that dude I thought was becoming ace but he ain’t pitched like that in a month! I mean pads not hitting jack shit last few days in stl wasn’t a great sign but even tho ball flys some guys prob don’t like hitting with sweat pouring in their eyes, particularly if they play way over half their games in nice west coast places! Not to mention Taj might have better stuff than every cardinal they saw he also ain’t doing anything smart with pitch designing and he either missing the plate or coming over the heart., Im down with this. Dont think rays score much and I don’t trust Taj can go 5 and not allow 3+ against a patient hitting team that will make him come over the plate. +130? Sign me up I’ll fade my boy, if that gets him to pitch like ace again then at least there that!
Pads Ff ml +130
2daBank
Voice of Reason
As long as teams keep walking cards and gifting them outs I love it! Tbink im
More into yanks Ff over but you might be onto something. Cards got lot of guys who could like that short porch also!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Pads Ff tt iv 1.5 also. It just so cheap. Fuvkinb prove jt taj
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Im gonna split yanks Ff Tt with this, stroman has a garbage k/bb ratio which right up cards ally! They also have several guys with high exit velo on him plus his heat isn’t good enough to blow by Wynn! In fact his heat is so weak cards put goldy back up to 5th, they have to bury him in 7 hole vs anyone throwing 95+ cause he can’t catch it, I could for sure see him or Arenado deposit one into right, along with any the lefties could pull one out. (Don’t fuck me on this! Lol).
2daBank
Voice of Reason
You can’t do 3 team RR’a in groups of 2 without a good 6-8 plays!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
God damn, even tho I said yesterday I think snakes a tad vulnerable to lhp at the moment with guys out it still really tough not taking them at damn +114. I dunno, I actually think this series is vastly more important to dodgers, dodgers have the much healthier lineup, but when do we see snakes pitchers start getting their grove? Think im just passing, maybe ill revisit west coast later! Lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
If anyone can make a case why in the world I should play A’s +120 and the Ff tt ov 1.5 before I get across river I’m all ears but this like seems fucking stupid. Jp Sears did get blasted vs milw last start but other than that he been pitching his tail off, he has had bad and good vs texas but this rangers team right now that struggled to put runs up all series against chisix? And Jon gray who been a shell of himself all year and basically throwing 2 pitches? Um yea I’ll take A’s to score 2 off this dude, in fact I’ll be annoyed they don’t score more! Miller hasn’t pitched in days so the pen should be in tact (or I’d just bet 1st 5)… I think the wrong team favored here, one young and wants to win, one pissing a year away playing out the stretch shining their rings from last year! Give me the young hungry bucks!
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
The Texas Rangers are a fucking joke. Basically almost got no hit by Nick Nastrini yesterday, are you kidding me? I get the A's bats woke up against shitty Reds starters, in a band box. I can't make sense of what they're doing with Jon Gray, sometimes he goes 1, 2 innings, sometimes, 7. I don't care to look any further.
This is who the Rangers couldn't hit yesterday.
I'm going A's TT o3.5 -130 and reverse RL, +186 (which btw just dropped 10 cents as I was typing this.. WTF?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
At the moment I have a really good drug regime going that has me on top my game. Never know how long it last so get it while the getting good! Lol.
The only bad part with sleeping 4-6 hours a night which a ton for me (I prob avg 2-3 and that isn’t consistent, if you havnt heard I’m a bit crazy, they say! Lol). Anyways the bad part is it 4 and I havnt even looked at ncaa!
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Orioles RL +106. I'm not fucking around tonight. I'm pissed.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Ff ov 1.5 and the +120 for me but that RRL is super tempting! Didn’t gray used to throw at least 3 pitches? He down to just fastball/slider this year and neither good enough he can get thru lineups multiple times like that! A’s were kinda hitting at home till they ran into mil but rangers don’t have milw putting coaches and clearly none their desire, they gonna milk that fluke ass ring for years! They so lucky Philly pen imploded vs snakes cause Philly woulda beat the brakes off them in WS! I saw seager sitting tonight also, so the only consistent bat out!!!
