Friday Discussion Thread

Festa ov 4.5 k’s +120… the only thing i dont love bout this play is for some reason this twat manager keeps yanking my guy after 5 innings even tho he rarely over 80 pitches, why In the world you would hire anyone named Rocco to lead a Boy Scout group let alone a baseball team or anything else I have no clue, I’m sorry but if your name Rocco there a 95% chance you a fucking MORON! And it doesn’t take long watching this clown manage to realize he a metal midget. So that’s the bad, the good is Im pretty confident this kid has a perfect arsonal to mow down cards shitty lineup. He loves throwing his slider which is perfect did the overpaid old ass righties in cards lineup. He has more than enough velo on his fastball to control the little guys and his change more than good enough to punch out a few the lefties. 2x thru this lineup if this kid hasn’t fanned 5+ he had a very off day! I was hoping for a 4.5, was afraid it be 5.5 and got a big as smile when I saw these goofballs wanna give us plus money on a number I think this kid hits easy!
 
I have no mfin clue why it went from +110 which was w fucjing steal to +120 by time I got to Illinios? But whatever, I’ve long since learned not to give a shit bout what other ppl doing w the lines and just trust my capping! I guess coulda maybe waited and seen if it dropped to 3.5 which be really stupid but I rather have the plus money on over 4.5 than pay juice, pretty confident he fans 5+.
 
KJ said:
Can't really blame them for wanting that Friday night revenue. Cubs might be the only team that can pull it off.
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Yea, it be silly. Cubs don’t do it to be smart, they do it cause they couldn’t afford lights for 100 years! lol
 
peelpub94 said:
STL/MIN NRFI -115

View attachment 87379
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Long as Lewis doesn’t take Pallante yard I think ya on to one here. Pallante one these guys w goofy reverse splits also, I’m sure Rocco won’t figure that out so he prob get to face at least 2 lefties in 1st and most likely 3 of 1st 4 in Rocco lineup be lefty, could be all of them if Lewis decides to take the day off, I here it a nice day up there in minny he might have something better to do!
 
2daBank said:
Long as Lewis doesn’t take Pallante yard I think ya on to one here. Pallante one these guys w goofy reverse splits also, I’m sure Rocco won’t figure that out so he prob get to face at least 2 lefties in 1st and most likely 3 of 1st 4 in Rocco lineup be lefty, could be all of them if Lewis decides to take the day off, I here it a nice day up there in minny he might have something better to do!
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Tell me how much you love Rocco!!
 
peelpub94 said:
Tell me how much you love Rocco!!
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I guess I make it a tad obvious, lol. I can’t help it, it really started the year they traded for Lopez, the way he mismanaged when to take him out or leave him in was horrific, then I just started noticing other things that piss me off! Let’s be real managing baseball has never been than difficult, it really more bout babysitting overpaid brats than strategy, and now it is basically paint by numbers with all the stupid ass rule changes, if that that not enough most of them playing off the same cheat shit some mit kid working up behind a desk! Bottom line it’s really not that difficult to make the right moves so the handful of them who constantly get it wrong really piss me off! This clown in stl they fired mike Shilt for (a good manager having success with a good organization now!) Marmol is prob even worse than Rocco, maybe not his management of pitchers but the fact he a gutless little bitch who refuses to give any they young kids that get called up a chance to play is just pathetic. What funny bout that is the dumb shit front office fired Shildt cause he wasn’t a yes man and didn’t read off their color coded chart every game, like he actually managed! So they hire this Marmol idiot cause he was supposed to be a yes man but now whenever they bring up a kid from minors and want him to get at bats they have to send him back down cause Marmol keeps pumping out the same losers into his shit lineup! Way to go cards, you couldn’t even hire a yes man who listens!!
 
Then im looking at Festa starts last night and see for some reason Rocco yanks him after 5 every damn game even tho he is generally pitching very well and only around 80 pitches! wtf is that bout? Maybe they have some kind of mandate on his pitch count I don’t know about for some stupid reason, if that the case than I’m sorry Rocco, but if you just pulling him after 5 for one the same dumb reasons you never pull Lopez at the right time then I’m sticking to my story he a fucking moron!
 
2daBank said:
I guess I make it a tad obvious, lol. I can’t help it, it really started the year they traded for Lopez, the way he mismanaged when to take him out or leave him in was horrific, then I just started noticing other things that piss me off! Let’s be real managing baseball has never been than difficult, it really more bout babysitting overpaid brats than strategy, and now it is basically paint by numbers with all the stupid ass rule changes, if that that not enough most of them playing off the same cheat shit some mit kid working up behind a desk! Bottom line it’s really not that difficult to make the right moves so the handful of them who constantly get it wrong really piss me off! This clown in stl they fired mike Shilt for (a good manager having success with a good organization now!) Marmol is prob even worse than Rocco, maybe not his management of pitchers but the fact he a gutless little bitch who refuses to give any they young kids that get called up a chance to play is just pathetic. What funny bout that is the dumb shit front office fired Shildt cause he wasn’t a yes man and didn’t read off their color coded chart every game, like he actually managed! So they hire this Marmol idiot cause he was supposed to be a yes man but now whenever they bring up a kid from minors and want him to get at bats they have to send him back down cause Marmol keeps pumping out the same losers into his shit lineup! Way to go cards, you couldn’t even hire a yes man who listens!!
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Probably has a lot to do with the salaries the overpaid vets have now vs the kids on entry level deals or whatever. They'll always favor the guy getting paid. Agree on Shildt too, and I remember reading something about how they tried to make it out he was a racist or some shit? Some fucked up shit went down when he left.
 
the worst part of firing Scott Servas was he found out ahead of time? It wasn’t the fact you got to keep your job when you built this lineup while someone else gets fired wasn’t the worst part? I don’t think servas built a team that strikes out at damn near 30% clip!
 
peelpub94 said:
Probably has a lot to do with the salaries the overpaid vets have now vs the kids on entry level deals or whatever. They'll always favor the guy getting paid. Agree on Shildt too, and I remember reading something about how they tried to make it out he was a racist or some shit? Some fucked up shit went down when he left.
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That’s funny cause I would argue there is def some systematic racism in our front office! That fired Shildt cause he wouldn’t manage off tne front office cute little analytic cards they work so hard color coding every day!! They have a long history of getting rid of anyone who don’t toe the company line around here, the problem is the company that was responsible for all our good teams left and went to Houston, is it any shock Stros the best run team in baseball and the idiot they left behind has managed to ruin one the best teams in the sport?!?!?
 
2daBank said:
the worst part of firing Scott Servas was he found out ahead of time? It wasn’t the fact you got to keep your job when you built this lineup while someone else gets fired wasn’t the worst part? I don’t think servas built a team that strikes out at damn near 30% clip!
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I'm on the fence with this, yeah, it's really shitty - that someone leaks this shit. But Servais was told he had the road trip to turn things around, that's kinda, "you fuck up here you're out" messaging. so its not exactly a surprise. And the same time, Mariners org has to be doing the replacement research well in advance, so its just kinda how things play out these days with social media. Happens to players often too.
 
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TheDodgers said:
Like the Padres but can Musgrove have a good start against the Mets which he has had bad numbers
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My problem here is musgrove tough to cap at this point with only the 2 starts back and not knowing how much his early issues were caused cause he was hurt? For most part I don’t see anything bout him that alarming, I didn’t dig super deep into spin rates and movement on all his pitches cause on surface everything appears mostly normal. The only thing that looks drastically different is he appears to pitch like you would expect but then he flat out misses location and gets a ball tattooed! Again maybe that was something bothering him before he went on IL? His 2 starts back seem better but it also against shit lineups who coulda missed those same pitches! Lol. Why he getting yanked so early tho ? His strength not built back up yet? I didn’t look how many rehab starts he had or how many pitches he threw in those? I’d think they woulda wanted to see him throw at least 80 pitches before bringing him back yet he being pulled in middle the 5th around 70 pitches. Mets are hitting to damn well to want the middle relief involved, if we gonna lay -135ish we want Joe giving us 6 solid innings and handing off to the right pen guys!

Far as is history vs Mets I wouldn’t worry much bout that, most those numbers come from way far back when they were different team or he was different guy. He faced the closest version of this team last year and dominated them for 6 innings, outside Lindor nobody in muts lineup has that good of numbers vs him in any kind of decent sample so think we can scratch any worries about that anyways. Much more worried bout the early exits and whether or not they plan on letting him get to at least 90 pitches tonight?

You would think pads can get to Blackburn but I find it odd all a sudden this season he has some sick reverse splits, he learn a new pitch? Most his career he been damn near the same vs r and l but all a sudden this year righties blasting him to the tune of .850ish ops but he holding lefties under .600?? That very odd, I didn’t dig and don’t know enough bout his pitch mix to know wtf going on there? It bodes well for manny mo and maybe boggarts but it def hurts lot of pads key bats if he really has found something to handle lefties! Not enough at bats vs current pads to take much away. If pads lefties can get on base closer to his career avg against lefties than that freaking .255 obp he sporting vs lefties this year than I’d say should be a good night for the offense, I am a bit confused how he has seemingly figured out lefties this year? If anyone wants to take a gander at that I’d def be interested!

Gun to head id say if you worried bout musgrove then this an easy over. I’m not concerned with his numbers vs Mets over his history but the 4.1 inning starts since he been back def worries me.
 
peelpub94 said:
I'm on the fence with this, yeah, it's really shitty - that someone leaks this shit. But Servais was told he had the road trip to turn things around, that's kinda, "you fuck up here you're out" messaging. so its not exactly a surprise. And the same time, Mariners org has to be doing the replacement research well in advance, so its just kinda how things play out these days with social media. Happens to players often too.
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I don’t really care bout him finding out sooner. My point it the part I think sucks is the GM who put this group of apparently partially blind hitters together keeps his job and fires the manager. Servas can’t make them hit! I guess maybe he could tape their eyes open at least so they don’t close them when they swing but I’m not sure that would play very well with the players! Lol. Maybe he could have mandated they simply didn’t swing? I mean that would be a better approach than the current close eyes and swing hard they can style that isn’t going so well! See I’m not totally anti manager! Personally I woulda fired the prick who brought Turner in at deadline and the other guys who can’t hit previously! Manager doesn’t have much control on whether players can hit a baseball!
 
2daBank said:
I don’t really care bout him finding out sooner. My point it the part I think sucks is the GM who put this group of apparently partially blind hitters together keeps his job and fires the manager. Servas can’t make them hit! I guess maybe he could tape their eyes open at least so they don’t close them when they swing but I’m not sure that would play very well with the players! Lol. Maybe he could have mandated they simply didn’t swing? I mean that would be a better approach than the current close eyes and swing hard they can style that isn’t going so well! See I’m not totally anti manager! Personally I woulda fired the prick who brought Turner in at deadline and the other guys who can’t hit previously! Manager doesn’t have much control on whether players can hit a baseball!
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Is Servais making the line up.. or some other computer generated crap?

Look I get it you want someone on base so a guy like Julio can smash him in. But it's not working. Their strategy is Victor fucking Robles leading off? He's a career sub .300 obp hitter in the lead off spot. Scoring and hitting is hard enough these days. And maybe I'm just not smart enough to understand it, but the Mariners are basically giving away free outs at the start of every game by having this idiot lead off there. Remember when Julio was on fire? He was leading off.. can we just try that again maybe?

Am I completely misreading this?

Robles:
1724437210552.png

Julio:
1724437219407.png

I think the entire line up construction every night is just a complete mess. There's no rhyme or reason around it.
 
peelpub94 said:
Bet Rivers has a pretty soft line on the out prop for Povich today, under 17.5 -120

View attachment 87380
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You like povich to go 6+ vs Stros? That feels high doesn’t it? I mean he did go 6.1 last start but that basically only start all year, seems little strange to me, off top my head I woulda guessed 15.5 for real. What am I missing?
 
2daBank said:
You like povich to go 6+ vs Stros? That feels high doesn’t it? I mean he did go 6.1 last start but that basically only start all year, seems little strange to me, off top my head I woulda guessed 15.5 for real. What am I missing?
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No, I mean the under is the play there.
 
peelpub94 said:
Is Servais making the line up.. or some other computer generated crap?

Look I get it you want someone on base so a guy like Julio can smash him in. But it's not working. Their strategy is Victor fucking Robles leading off? He's a career sub .300 obp hitter in the lead off spot. Scoring and hitting is hard enough these days. And maybe I'm just not smart enough to understand it, but the Mariners are basically giving away free outs at the start of every game by having this idiot lead off there. Remember when Julio was on fire? He was leading off.. can we just try that again maybe?

Am I completely misreading this?

Robles:
View attachment 87383

Julio:
View attachment 87384

I think the entire line up construction every night is just a complete mess. There's no rhyme or reason around it.
Click to expand...

You might be right, I just look at their lineup every night and see a bunch of mfers striking out 30% the time and don’t really put any thought into if he could somehow put it together any better, like playing jenga with broken pieces!!
 
2daBank said:
You might be right, I just look at their lineup every night and see a bunch of mfers striking out 30% the time and don’t really put any thought into if he could somehow put it together any better, like playing jenga with broken pieces!!
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Did the hitting coach get fired too? That should be the real fall guy.
 
Well, I guess he's been hurt for a bit, but wasn't leading off when healthy either this whole season, JP Crawford was, who is also injured. So I guess they have zero options there.
 
peelpub94 said:
No, I mean the under is the play there.
Click to expand...

Yea you gotta be right. I don’t understand that 17.5 at all. I dunno much bout povich I’m assuming he a decent prospect? All I know at a glance is the Mfer looks like he has struggled w walks all thru the minors but at least had a solid k per 9 rate, now in bigs the strikeouts have plummeted and the walks as big a issue as ever. How on gods green earth you can line this dude at 17.5 vs Stros I have no damn idea. I think price on stros is short also.
 
On DK povich u17.5 outs is -155 but to be honest I still think that charmin soft, where they get off saying this dude going 6 vs Houston? Nothing makes sense bout that. This a 15.5 all day imo and I would say no juice on over that!! lol. Good find @peelpub94 , Where did you say had -115? I might have to add a book! USA book?
 
Instead of just laying the juice str8 on povich (unless I can get in book with shorter line). I been looking for something to put with Soto over 1.5 h,r,rbi -165, everyone else in yanks lineup from right side they have listed at 2.5 which makes sense but think we getting a unwarranted discount on Soto, he doesn’t care if he facing a lefty, he smashes everyone and actually has a history vs Freeland, the 5 for 25 is deceiving, he has a exit velo almost as high any the righties, a big slug w 4 his 5 hits being extra bases, the highest xwOBA on team not counting glaber who only has 2 at bats! Plus how long Freeland be in? Soto will most likely see him only 2x, The real beauty is Soto can simply walk twice and prob cash this!

So povich u17.5 outs/soto ov 1.5 h,r,rbi

I also love the yanks Ff tt over 2.5 even at -140
 
2daBank said:
My problem here is musgrove tough to cap at this point with only the 2 starts back and not knowing how much his early issues were caused cause he was hurt? For most part I don’t see anything bout him that alarming, I didn’t dig super deep into spin rates and movement on all his pitches cause on surface everything appears mostly normal. The only thing that looks drastically different is he appears to pitch like you would expect but then he flat out misses location and gets a ball tattooed! Again maybe that was something bothering him before he went on IL? His 2 starts back seem better but it also against shit lineups who coulda missed those same pitches! Lol. Why he getting yanked so early tho ? His strength not built back up yet? I didn’t look how many rehab starts he had or how many pitches he threw in those? I’d think they woulda wanted to see him throw at least 80 pitches before bringing him back yet he being pulled in middle the 5th around 70 pitches. Mets are hitting to damn well to want the middle relief involved, if we gonna lay -135ish we want Joe giving us 6 solid innings and handing off to the right pen guys!

Far as is history vs Mets I wouldn’t worry much bout that, most those numbers come from way far back when they were different team or he was different guy. He faced the closest version of this team last year and dominated them for 6 innings, outside Lindor nobody in muts lineup has that good of numbers vs him in any kind of decent sample so think we can scratch any worries about that anyways. Much more worried bout the early exits and whether or not they plan on letting him get to at least 90 pitches tonight?

You would think pads can get to Blackburn but I find it odd all a sudden this season he has some sick reverse splits, he learn a new pitch? Most his career he been damn near the same vs r and l but all a sudden this year righties blasting him to the tune of .850ish ops but he holding lefties under .600?? That very odd, I didn’t dig and don’t know enough bout his pitch mix to know wtf going on there? It bodes well for manny mo and maybe boggarts but it def hurts lot of pads key bats if he really has found something to handle lefties! Not enough at bats vs current pads to take much away. If pads lefties can get on base closer to his career avg against lefties than that freaking .255 obp he sporting vs lefties this year than I’d say should be a good night for the offense, I am a bit confused how he has seemingly figured out lefties this year? If anyone wants to take a gander at that I’d def be interested!

Gun to head id say if you worried bout musgrove then this an easy over. I’m not concerned with his numbers vs Mets over his history but the 4.1 inning starts since he been back def worries me.
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Thxs Bank. Great write up about Musgrove.
 
2daBank said:
On DK povich u17.5 outs is -155 but to be honest I still think that charmin soft, where they get off saying this dude going 6 vs Houston? Nothing makes sense bout that. This a 15.5 all day imo and I would say no juice on over that!! lol. Good find @peelpub94 , Where did you say had -115? I might have to add a book! USA book?
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Bet Rivers had it
 
peelpub94 said:
Bet Rivers had it
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Oh cool, I have an account w them, no clue when I used it last, I’d think it has been hit by now??? Anyways good find bro, not the amazing +150 I came up with yesterday but still good! Lmao. (I thought that Sevi under was fucking trash for 4+ innings! Lol).
 
2daBank said:
Oh cool, I have an account w them, no clue when I used it last, I’d think it has been hit by now??? Anyways good find bro, not the amazing +150 I came up with yesterday but still good! Lmao. (I thought that Sevi under was fucking trash for 4+ innings! Lol).
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Oh shit.. it's 16.5 now!!
 
peelpub94 said:
Oh shit.. it's 16.5 now!!
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Yea DK too but honestly that fine with me. Almost like 16.5 without the juice better. Like I said it looks like a 15.5 to me and juice to under so still think plenty of value. Usually try to shut up bout those til I bet them! Lol. Didn’t matter w Sevi last night it was clear squares were digging that over. No squares betting this guy over.
 
peelpub94 said:
Is Servais making the line up.. or some other computer generated crap?

Look I get it you want someone on base so a guy like Julio can smash him in. But it's not working. Their strategy is Victor fucking Robles leading off? He's a career sub .300 obp hitter in the lead off spot. Scoring and hitting is hard enough these days. And maybe I'm just not smart enough to understand it, but the Mariners are basically giving away free outs at the start of every game by having this idiot lead off there. Remember when Julio was on fire? He was leading off.. can we just try that again maybe?

Am I completely misreading this?

Robles:
View attachment 87383

Julio:
View attachment 87384

I think the entire line up construction every night is just a complete mess. There's no rhyme or reason around it.
Click to expand...
Robles leading off is a disaster, watched him for years fail.
 
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