Friday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jul 12 Fri 2024

06:40 PM
921Oakland AthleticsH. Harris -L+1½
+120		+234O 8½
-125
922Philadelphia PhilliesR. Suarez -L+16 Markets-1½
-140		-265U 8½
+105
06:40 PM
923Los Angeles DodgersJ. Paxton -L+1½
-158		+134O 8
-105
924Detroit TigersT. Skubal -L+18 Markets-1½
+138		-146U 8
-115
06:50 PM
911Cleveland GuardiansC. Carrasco -R+1½
-178		+117O 7½
-104
912Tampa Bay RaysT. Bradley -R+18 Markets-1½
+158		-127U 7½
-116
07:05 PM
913New York YankeesG. Cole -R-1½
+130		-122O 9
+100
914Baltimore OriolesC. Povich -L+6 Markets+1½
-150		+112U 9
-120
07:10 PM
901Colorado RockiesT. Gordon -R+1½
+120		+231O 8½
-115
902New York MetsS. Manaea -L+6 Markets-1½
-140		-262U 8½
-105
07:10 PM
903Miami MarlinsY. Chirinos -R+1½
-128		+159O 9
-116
904Cincinnati RedsC. Spiers -R+18 Markets-1½
+108		-174U 9
-104
07:10 PM
915Kansas City RoyalsC. Ragans -L-1½
+142		-112O 9½
-110
916Boston Red SoxC. Criswell -R+10 Markets+1½
-162		+102U 9½
-110
08:10 PM
905Washington NationalsJ. Rutledge -R+1½
+108		+222O 8
-107
906Milwaukee BrewersF. Peralta -R+16 Markets-1½
-128		-250U 8
-113
08:10 PM
917Texas RangersA. Heaney -L+1½
-163		+126O 8
-110
918Houston AstrosH. Brown -R+18 Markets-1½
+143		-137U 8
-110
08:15 PM
907Chicago CubsK. Hendricks -R+1½
-120		+175O 8
-115
908St. Louis CardinalsS. Gray -R+16 Markets-1½
+100		-192U 8
-105
09:38 PM
919Seattle MarinersB. Woo -R-1½
+113		-138O 8
-127
920Los Angeles AngelsT. Anderson -L+16 Markets+1½
-133		+127U 8
+107
09:40 PM
909Atlanta BravesS. Schwellenbach -R-1½
+135		-117O 8½
+100
910San Diego PadresR. Vasquez -R+17 Markets+1½
-155		+107U 8½
-120
09:40 PM
927Toronto Blue JaysY. Rodriguez -R+1½
-177		+112O 9
-113
928Arizona DiamondbacksR. Nelson -R+18 Markets-1½
+157		-122U 9
-107
10:15 PM
929Minnesota TwinsJ. Ryan -R-1½
+122		-138O 7½
-116
930San Francisco GiantsK. Harrison -L+11 Markets+1½
-142		+127U 7½
-104
 
Last edited:
Two games already interested in others thoughts. LAD/Tigers and OAK/Phillies.
Does Suarez gets his stuff together and can tye Dodgers who are dogs lost 4 straight. Now as a dog 4 straight games as ell
 
I honestly don't like anything today for NRFI, and feel like I'm forcing things.

SEA/LAA - Tyler Anderson can give up runs in the first, Woo's first game back from injury, Mariners offense slightly waking up.

ATL/SD - Schwellenbach perfect in the first inning in 7 starts, Randy Vasquez for the Padres has been great at home but has broken a few times in the first. Kinda scared to bet against ATL in these spots too.
 
peelpub94 said:
I honestly don't like anything today for NRFI, and feel like I'm forcing things.

SEA/LAA - Tyler Anderson can give up runs in the first, Woo's first game back from injury, Mariners offense slightly waking up.

ATL/SD - Schwellenbach perfect in the first inning in 7 starts, Randy Vasquez for the Padres has been great at home but has broken a few times in the first. Kinda scared to bet against ATL in these spots too.
Click to expand...
Weekend before ASG tough to cap.

A lot of these guys have their eyes on the vacation tbh.
 
Stew Baker said:
Suarez certainly not setting the world on fire last 2 starts. H. Harris serviceable over 5 inn. may get a focus boost from the birth of his newborn son. Oak the kind of team that sneaks up on you when you're not looking. Taking a stab at the price.

0.6 u Oak FF +210
0.4 u Oak FF +1/2 +155
Click to expand...
Good value,
 
Stew Baker said:
Suarez certainly not setting the world on fire last 2 starts. H. Harris serviceable over 5 inn. may get a focus boost from the birth of his newborn son. Oak the kind of team that sneaks up on you when you're not looking. Taking a stab at the price.

0.6 u Oak FF +210
0.4 u Oak FF +1/2 +155
Click to expand...
Tigers 7-8-9 started this down swing for Suarez.

Perfect letdown game too.
 
B.A.R. said:
Weekend before ASG tough to cap.

A lot of these guys have their eyes on the vacation tbh.
Click to expand...
Wholeheartedly agree, the long 162 game season catches up with guys mid season when it gets hot, luckily i had most of the motivated teams last night while night before they didnt show up. Do more dogs win tonight? Guess We'll see later but I'm big on the Cards against Kyle "broken back" Hendricks and upstart Cubs (can he last past the 4th inning? i know that's a prop on outs may be worth a shot), pounded the Space City Astros in the showdown in the heart of Texas and over, expect a shoot out at the OK Corral again, Reds look easy tonight as do Guardians and Mets. Dodgers I think will get to Skubal tonight, i'm thinking Det Offense comes back to earth tonight---and Tigers lineup is awful against Lefties this year (15 combined homers,compared to 34 by LAD off Lefties), and had to hit my Yankees and over despite their recent woes. Orioles Povich pitches like Maury Povich. I asked my buddy down in Norfolk- another ecu guy who watches the Norfolk Tides team and was a former advanced scout years ago and as he's cousins with Connor Norby an ecu grad who is their next standout..I asked the deal about Povich after the Oakland start and he said he is only up cause of a lot of injuries, he wasn't projected to make it til 2026 if ever. Prob will be optioned back to Norfolk soon. Also his metrics on his curve sucks, it has the lowest movement top to bottom of any guy in their whole farm system to majors. thats why guys are teeing off on him, and he has little command of his pitches, and low confidence (bad recipe for a young pitcher).

and get this—Povichs' stats in the minors are abysmal. In 81.1 innings of work on the hill in 2023, he boasted a 6-7 record with a 4.87 ERA. in 2024 it gets worse. 1-3, 6.51 ERA, in 27 IP, with a 1.48 WHIP. Ouch. His troubles in the minor only foretold what would happen in the majors, these guys are in the in MLB for a reason. And call me naive but I think the Jays stay hot tonight, with a young stud rookie who has been lights out, and an offense that is putting up numbers towards the end of the road trip, going against a snakes pitcher who's been downright bad at home, 3-3- with a 6.69 ERA, with hitters hitting .349 on him in the desert, combined with his night time splits of 3-4 and 5.56, i had to hit the over in this one too, with both offenses clicking.. That's a few of my random thoughts, sorry the long winded analysis. Good luck.
 
PirateAlew said:
Wholeheartedly agree, the long 162 game season catches up with guys mid season when it gets hot, luckily i had most of the motivated teams last night while night before they didnt show up. Do more dogs win tonight? Guess We'll see later but I'm big on the Cards against Kyle "broken back" Hendricks and upstart Cubs (can he last past the 4th inning? i know that's a prop on outs may be worth a shot), pounded the Space City Astros in the showdown in the heart of Texas and over, expect a shoot out at the OK Corral again, Reds look easy tonight as do Guardians and Mets. Dodgers I think will get to Skubal tonight, i'm thinking Det Offense comes back to earth tonight---and Tigers lineup is awful against Lefties this year (15 combined homers,compared to 34 by LAD off Lefties), and had to hit my Yankees and over despite their recent woes. Orioles Povich pitches like Maury Povich. I asked my buddy down in Norfolk- another ecu guy who watches the Norfolk Tides team and was a former advanced scout years ago and as he's cousins with Connor Norby an ecu grad who is their next standout..I asked the deal about Povich after the Oakland start and he said he is only up cause of a lot of injuries, he wasn't projected to make it til 2026 if ever. Prob will be optioned back to Norfolk soon. Also his metrics on his curve sucks, it has the lowest movement top to bottom of any guy in their whole farm system to majors. thats why guys are teeing off on him, and he has little command of his pitches, and low confidence (bad recipe for a young pitcher).

and get this—Povichs' stats in the minors are abysmal. In 81.1 innings of work on the hill in 2023, he boasted a 6-7 record with a 4.87 ERA. in 2024 it gets worse. 1-3, 6.51 ERA, in 27 IP, with a 1.48 WHIP. Ouch. His troubles in the minor only foretold what would happen in the majors, these guys are in the in MLB for a reason. And call me naive but I think the Jays stay hot tonight, with a young stud rookie who has been lights out, and an offense that is putting up numbers towards the end of the road trip, going against a snakes pitcher who's been downright bad at home, 3-3- with a 6.69 ERA, with hitters hitting .349 on him in the desert, combined with his night time splits of 3-4 and 5.56, i had to hit the over in this one too, with both offenses clicking.. That's a few of my random thoughts, sorry the long winded analysis. Good luck.
Click to expand...
Good post
 
B.A.R. said:
Weekend before ASG tough to cap.

A lot of these guys have their eyes on the vacation tbh.
Click to expand...

yep, the series before asb then the week or so after can be a total pain in the ass. more about finding teams who still engaged vs ones that maybe a little checked out mentally, shit tough to do. i'm not huge on playing lot of favs but this weekend prob be a time i'd look at teams who coming in hot.
 
PirateAlew said:
Wholeheartedly agree, the long 162 game season catches up with guys mid season when it gets hot, luckily i had most of the motivated teams last night while night before they didnt show up. Do more dogs win tonight? Guess We'll see later but I'm big on the Cards against Kyle "broken back" Hendricks and upstart Cubs (can he last past the 4th inning? i know that's a prop on outs may be worth a shot), pounded the Space City Astros in the showdown in the heart of Texas and over, expect a shoot out at the OK Corral again, Reds look easy tonight as do Guardians and Mets. Dodgers I think will get to Skubal tonight, i'm thinking Det Offense comes back to earth tonight---and Tigers lineup is awful against Lefties this year (15 combined homers,compared to 34 by LAD off Lefties), and had to hit my Yankees and over despite their recent woes. Orioles Povich pitches like Maury Povich. I asked my buddy down in Norfolk- another ecu guy who watches the Norfolk Tides team and was a former advanced scout years ago and as he's cousins with Connor Norby an ecu grad who is their next standout..I asked the deal about Povich after the Oakland start and he said he is only up cause of a lot of injuries, he wasn't projected to make it til 2026 if ever. Prob will be optioned back to Norfolk soon. Also his metrics on his curve sucks, it has the lowest movement top to bottom of any guy in their whole farm system to majors. thats why guys are teeing off on him, and he has little command of his pitches, and low confidence (bad recipe for a young pitcher).

and get this—Povichs' stats in the minors are abysmal. In 81.1 innings of work on the hill in 2023, he boasted a 6-7 record with a 4.87 ERA. in 2024 it gets worse. 1-3, 6.51 ERA, in 27 IP, with a 1.48 WHIP. Ouch. His troubles in the minor only foretold what would happen in the majors, these guys are in the in MLB for a reason. And call me naive but I think the Jays stay hot tonight, with a young stud rookie who has been lights out, and an offense that is putting up numbers towards the end of the road trip, going against a snakes pitcher who's been downright bad at home, 3-3- with a 6.69 ERA, with hitters hitting .349 on him in the desert, combined with his night time splits of 3-4 and 5.56, i had to hit the over in this one too, with both offenses clicking.. That's a few of my random thoughts, sorry the long winded analysis. Good luck.
Click to expand...

don't be sorry, more post like this the better.
 
my fucjing car blew a head gasket today (the hits just keep coming! lol), have lot of crap going on so doubt i'm gonna make it across the river, havnt really even had a chance to look at card. i'll prob take the night off and focus on saturdays card.
 
hendricks has owned cards over the years. lifetime he 13-4 with a 2,60ish era vs cards. he has shut these guys down so many times over the years, they just can't hit him! cards laying -190 is crazy imo. sonny gray has been incredible at busch with a sub 2 era this year but still think hendricks history vs cards and way cubs playing right now they absolutely worth a bet at this price! +175 is craziness! i'd look at ff under 4.5 also.
 
not gonna cap the entire card since i don't think im gonna have a chance to bet, just thought i'd point out the incredibly obvious with cubs at that number. i might try to get a ride or see if anyone i know gonna be in illinios to get me down a bit on scrubbies!
 
2daBank said:
hendricks has owned cards over the years. lifetime he 13-4 with a 2,60ish era vs cards. he has shut these guys down so many times over the years, they just can't hit him! cards laying -190 is crazy imo. sonny gray has been incredible at busch with a sub 2 era this year but still think hendricks history vs cards and way cubs playing right now they absolutely worth a bet at this price! +175 is craziness! i'd look at ff under 4.5 also.
Click to expand...

He seems capable of a good start here and there but otherwise has been a horrific gas can.
 
Inspekdah said:
He seems capable of a good start here and there but otherwise has been a horrific gas can.
Click to expand...

oh he sucks, i never been a fan i just know he has been a nightmare for cards to hit. even this year he went 4.1 and only allowed 2 hits vs them. i guess it just a matter of how long he can go, just don't be surprised if he puts up a bunch of 0's while he in the game.
 
I used to like Hendricks bc of his command, he doesnt overpower but was more like a professor or mini Maddux a while back. Now he's a gas can with a fuse lit, probably due to his bad back, which is causing shorter starts. That stiffness doesnt go away and its affecting what he can do. Now watch him go in with some greenies amped up and throw a No-no tonight, then he'll go on IL. HA!

Also holding my nose and betting another under. Pitt/Chic looks like it with 2 of the lowest scoring MLB teams (pitt is 21st, CHW is 30th), and CHW throwing one of their best young pitchers Crochet, and the umpire being Alex Mackay a pitcher friendly leaning umpire, the recipe adds up to an under in that one.
 
PirateAlew said:
I used to like Hendricks bc of his command, he doesnt overpower but was more like a professor or mini Maddux a while back. Now he's a gas can with a fuse lit, probably due to his bad back, which is causing shorter starts. That stiffness doesnt go away and its affecting what he can do. Now watch him go in with some greenies amped up and throw a No-no tonight, then he'll go on IL. HA!

Also holding my nose and betting another under. Pitt/Chic looks like it with 2 of the lowest scoring MLB teams (pitt is 21st, CHW is 30th), and CHW throwing one of their best young pitchers Crochet, and the umpire being Alex Mackay a pitcher friendly leaning umpire, the recipe adds up to an under in that one.
Click to expand...

yea i dunno how long he able to go but while he in i doubt cards offense does much, they always been vulnerable to junk and they quick to hit his boarder line pitches that turn into quick outs!
 
if hendricks is even remotely himself cards will be rolling over all night, his pitch count tends to stay pretty low while he dominating these guys!
 
2daBank said:
if hendricks is even remotely himself cards will be rolling over all night, his pitch count tends to stay pretty low while he dominating these guys!
Click to expand...
Just pounded the twins over now after a bet on the twins ML earlier. Was waiting on the umpire news as I has the over as a lean but with Todd Tichenor it's time to pull the trigger. And the matchup calls for it with Giants Pitcher Harrison who has given up 4 runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. The twins have an explosive offense ranked 4th on 5 runs per game. The twins RAKE agains lefties, with #1 in MLB OPS of .802 and 30 home runs. The over is 4-1 last 5 in Ryan's starts so his guys give him good run production and with a 20 mph Golden Gate to Bay wind pushing balls out to center
 
PirateAlew said:
Just pounded the twins over now after a bet on the twins ML earlier. Was waiting on the umpire news as I has the over as a lean but with Todd Tichenor it's time to pull the trigger. And the matchup calls for it with Giants Pitcher Harrison who has given up 4 runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. The twins have an explosive offense ranked 4th on 5 runs per game. The twins RAKE agains lefties, with #1 in MLB OPS of .802 and 30 home runs. The over is 4-1 last 5 in Ryan's starts so his guys give him good run production and with a 20 mph Golden Gate to Bay wind pushing balls out to center
Click to expand...

i'd prob keep riding the buxton ov 1.5 h,r,rbi, surprised he only -110 for over. he has cashed every game he played this month and 14 of last 15 i think.
 
Y Rod averaging 1.0 SO per inn. 2024. Strikeouts with Eddings behind the plate slightly above the league average. If Y Rod hits his average and goes 5, ov 4 1/2 SO +125 cashes at a decent price. Good enough for my money.
 
Last edited:
Stew Baker said:
Suarez certainly not setting the world on fire last 2 starts. H. Harris serviceable over 5 inn. may get a focus boost from the birth of his newborn son. Oak the kind of team that sneaks up on you when you're not looking. Taking a stab at the price.

0.6 u Oak FF +210
0.4 u Oak FF +1/2 +155
Click to expand...
very nice read
 
Stew Baker said:
Suarez certainly not setting the world on fire last 2 starts. H. Harris serviceable over 5 inn. may get a focus boost from the birth of his newborn son. Oak the kind of team that sneaks up on you when you're not looking. Taking a stab at the price.

0.6 u Oak FF +210
0.4 u Oak FF +1/2 +155
Click to expand...

nice call, off the lad sweep big jacked up price also, nice play!
 
so far hendricks doing what he always does vs cards. he be a hof'er if he could face cards 10-15 times a year! lol
 
did Cole look like vintage Cole or was that somewhat a product of o's all a sudden struggling at the plate?
 
no way i woulda pitched to Ohtani-son in that spot! 1st and 3rd 2 outs in a tie game in 9th. i'm walking his ass and taking my chances with anyone else!
 
2daBank said:
so far hendricks doing what he always does vs cards. he be a hof'er if he could face cards 10-15 times a year! lol
Click to expand...
Guy has had an unbelievable career, and is the last of the “pitcher” generation. It hasn’t just been vs the Cards :)
 
kyle’s been pretty much done since 2020. There’s a reason why he was the game 7 starter in the world series.
 
PirateAlew said:
Wholeheartedly agree, the long 162 game season catches up with guys mid season when it gets hot, luckily i had most of the motivated teams last night while night before they didnt show up. Do more dogs win tonight? Guess We'll see later but I'm big on the Cards against Kyle "broken back" Hendricks and upstart Cubs (can he last past the 4th inning? i know that's a prop on outs may be worth a shot), pounded the Space City Astros in the showdown in the heart of Texas and over, expect a shoot out at the OK Corral again, Reds look easy tonight as do Guardians and Mets. Dodgers I think will get to Skubal tonight, i'm thinking Det Offense comes back to earth tonight---and Tigers lineup is awful against Lefties this year (15 combined homers,compared to 34 by LAD off Lefties), and had to hit my Yankees and over despite their recent woes. Orioles Povich pitches like Maury Povich. I asked my buddy down in Norfolk- another ecu guy who watches the Norfolk Tides team and was a former advanced scout years ago and as he's cousins with Connor Norby an ecu grad who is their next standout..I asked the deal about Povich after the Oakland start and he said he is only up cause of a lot of injuries, he wasn't projected to make it til 2026 if ever. Prob will be optioned back to Norfolk soon. Also his metrics on his curve sucks, it has the lowest movement top to bottom of any guy in their whole farm system to majors. thats why guys are teeing off on him, and he has little command of his pitches, and low confidence (bad recipe for a young pitcher).

and get this—Povichs' stats in the minors are abysmal. In 81.1 innings of work on the hill in 2023, he boasted a 6-7 record with a 4.87 ERA. in 2024 it gets worse. 1-3, 6.51 ERA, in 27 IP, with a 1.48 WHIP. Ouch. His troubles in the minor only foretold what would happen in the majors, these guys are in the in MLB for a reason. And call me naive but I think the Jays stay hot tonight, with a young stud rookie who has been lights out, and an offense that is putting up numbers towards the end of the road trip, going against a snakes pitcher who's been downright bad at home, 3-3- with a 6.69 ERA, with hitters hitting .349 on him in the desert, combined with his night time splits of 3-4 and 5.56, i had to hit the over in this one too, with both offenses clicking.. That's a few of my random thoughts, sorry the long winded analysis. Good luck.
Click to expand...

Whew, Dodgers come back and reds hang on, all while Mets give up 4 in the 8th to choke the RL away. HA! Now i gotta sweat my yankees out, stuck on 3 runs since early innnings, and just missed a homer leading off the 9th for the TT.
 
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