Friday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jul 14 Fri 2023

06:05 PM
951San Diego PadresY. Darvish -R-1½
+140		-111O 9
-120
952Philadelphia PhilliesC. Sanchez -L+1 Markets+1½
-160		+101U 9
+100
07:05 PM
953San Francisco GiantsR. Stripling -R-1½
+130		-124O 9
-105
954Pittsburgh PiratesR. Hill -L+1 Markets+1½
-150		+114U 9
-115
07:05 PM
971Miami MarlinsS. Alcantara -R+1½
-195		+110O 8½
-110
972Baltimore OriolesD. Kremer -R+1 Markets-1½
+170		-120U 8½
-110
07:10 PM
955Los Angeles DodgersJ. Urias -L-1½
+135		-117O 8½
-104
956New York MetsJ. Verlander -R+1 Markets+1½
-155		+107U 8½
-116
07:10 PM
957Milwaukee BrewersC. Burnes -R-1½
+130		-119O 10
-105
958Cincinnati RedsG. Ashcraft -R+1 Markets+1½
-150		+109U 10
-115
07:20 PM
975Chicago White SoxM. Kopech -R+1½
+107		+213O 9½
+100
976Atlanta BravesC. Morton -R+1 Markets-1½
-127		-239U 9½
-120
08:05 PM
961Cleveland GuardiansA. Civale -R+1½
-160		+127O 8½
+100
962Texas RangersJ. Gray -R-1½
+140		-138U 8½
-120
08:05 PM
977Boston Red SoxB. Bello -R-120
978Chicago CubsK. Hendricks -R+1 Markets+110
08:10 PM
963Tampa Bay RaysT. Glasnow -R-1½
-170		-280O 9
-113
964Kansas City RoyalsA. Marsh -R+1½
+150		+246U 9
-107
08:40 PM
979New York YankeesC. Rodon -L-1½
-135		-186O 11½
-110
980Colorado RockiesA. Gomber -L+1 Markets+1½
+115		+170U 11½
-110
09:38 PM
965Houston AstrosJ. France -R+1½
-150		+141O 8
-105
966Los Angeles AngelsS. Ohtani -R+1 Markets-1½
+130		-154U 8
-115
10:10 PM
969Detroit TigersE. Rodriguez -L+1½
-135		+162O 7
-118
970Seattle MarinersL. Castillo -R-1½
+115		-177U 7
-102
 
Last edited:
Torn between pirates Ff or just playing rich hill ov 4.5 k’s.

-120 feels cheap for Bello vs Hendricks.

Lean some kinda over in balty, not sure how to attack it cause I want the end of both starters outings but don’t really want to be against the pens. Maybe a 7 inning over?
 
Initial thoughts are the NRFI with Sandy, and maybe Guardians first 5 and Astros first 5.
 
I love me some reds but this feels awful cheap for Burnes vs Ashcraft, Ashcraft was better his last couple starts but how much of that was competition? I still worry bout walks and bombs with him, that pretty much milw path to offense. Burnes last few starts vs reds were decent, 6 innings 2 runs before the break, 6 innings 3 runs in cincy a month ago, he did walk quite a few in both those starts tho and this the 3rd time reds seeing him in just over a month. Is that 10 total a bit a tell? My initial thought was over but didn’t expect to see them hanging a 10!
 
2daBank said:
Torn between pirates Ff or just playing rich hill ov 4.5 k’s.

-120 feels cheap for Bello vs Hendricks.

Lean some kinda over in balty, not sure how to attack it cause I want the end of both starters outings but don’t really want to be against the pens. Maybe a 7 inning over?
Click to expand...
Doubt Cubs game gets played, so not wasting much time on that. Love the Fish over 8.5 though
 
I already don’t love these 1st games back and now I’m seeing chances of storms lot of places.
 
askias said:
Initial thoughts are the NRFI with Sandy, and maybe Guardians first 5 and Astros first 5.
Click to expand...
I like that NRFI

One of the only things I've really had an opinion about at this point of the season is Alcantara getting back to more of what we expect of him and that eliminates anything else funky with weather there. Never gonna find me opposed to betting against the Marlins scoring in a given inning
 
KJ said:
I like that NRFI

One of the only things I've really had an opinion about at this point of the season is Alcantara getting back to more of what we expect of him and that eliminates anything else funky with weather there. Never gonna find me opposed to betting against the Marlins scoring in a given inning
Click to expand...

The thing is I think fish have always been prone to push him to far for whatever reason, even last year the majority the times he gave up crooked number innings were late in games when they would send him back out in spots you almost never see pitchers get sent back out these days. even if he has a good outing he likely to give up some runs at the tail end of the start cause they almost always late pulling him.

Far as the No run 1st today I worry way more bout Kremer than I do Sandy. Kremer has a 6 something 1st inning career era, teams have a .920 ops in the 1st this season and he been pretty awful on 6+ Days rest most his career including getting shelled early the only start this year w more than 6 days rest. It not like the top fish lineup is weak, they have a dude flirting w .400 leading off then solar hitting bombs behind him, that would scare me vs a dude who prone to struggle early and on longer rest and doesn’t exactly possess lights out stuff.
 
They offering plus money on kopech ov 4.5 k’s. This dude been a royal pain in my ass! God that so tempting, if he can last even 4 innings without getting pasted by Braves I’d think he fans 5 easy! I just don’t know if he can make it 4+ innings without getting shelled by Braves all star lineup?
 
2daBank said:
I love me some reds but this feels awful cheap for Burnes vs Ashcraft, Ashcraft was better his last couple starts but how much of that was competition? I still worry bout walks and bombs with him, that pretty much milw path to offense. Burnes last few starts vs reds were decent, 6 innings 2 runs before the break, 6 innings 3 runs in cincy a month ago, he did walk quite a few in both those starts tho and this the 3rd time reds seeing him in just over a month. Is that 10 total a bit a tell? My initial thought was over but didn’t expect to see them hanging a 10!
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I just played reds series again. Anytime I can get Abbott in the series I’m playing it. -115
 
Marsski said:
I just played reds series again. Anytime I can get Abbott in the series I’m playing it. -115
Click to expand...

I’m not much into playing series, tough for me to say but I don’t love that price. Tonight gonna be a tough one, I do like they seeing Burnes for 3rd time the last month but I don’t trust Ashcraft. Brewers spanked Abbott before the asb, I doubt that happens again, he should be tough on them but little concern how well they did 2nd time seeing him, I never know wtf Freddy p gonna do these days? 1-1 after the 1st 2 seems like a pretty good bet, then Sunday Houser v Lively is probably bout a coin flip.

Im kinda baffled by tonight total, the 1st 5 innings is 6? Man that seems high but the problem is I do expect runs. Had the total been more like 4.5/9 I def would have leaned over. Seems like they expecting one or both these starters to struggle!
 
2daBank said:
Im kinda baffled by tonight total, the 1st 5 innings is 6? Man that seems high but the problem is I do expect runs. Had the total been more like 4.5/9 I def would have leaned over. Seems like they expecting one or both these starters to struggle!
Click to expand...
Was getting a lot of 6 as the number for 1st 5 last couple weeks in Cincy, getting to be that time of year
 
Both Ff team totals in cincy sit at 2.5 tho. Milw -135 to over, cin -110. The math don’t really add up, DK just dropped the Ff to 5.5 -130 to over, that closer to right.
 
2daBank said:
I’m not much into playing series, tough for me to say but I don’t love that price. Tonight gonna be a tough one, I do like they seeing Burnes for 3rd time the last month but I don’t trust Ashcraft. Brewers spanked Abbott before the asb, I doubt that happens again, he should be tough on them but little concern how well they did 2nd time seeing him, I never know wtf Freddy p gonna do these days? 1-1 after the 1st 2 seems like a pretty good bet, then Sunday Houser v Lively is probably bout a coin flip.

Im kinda baffled by tonight total, the 1st 5 innings is 6? Man that seems high but the problem is I do expect runs. Had the total been more like 4.5/9 I def would have leaned over. Seems like they expecting one or both these starters to struggle!
Click to expand...
The reds just win series w EDLC, they just do. I think they get to Burnes tonight, should be 90ish at first pitch so the ball will be sailing...could be a good night for an HR props...Votto, India, Adames, Contreras, and Perkins all have HRs in limited ABs vs tonight's starters...starting to believe in Ashcraft but he could give up some street pieces.
 
I fell in love with a MILWAUKEE/SEATTLE ML parlay and without thinking really played it at 4 different books. I remember post all star break understand hitting at a high clip for a roughly 3-4 days. BOL to all
 
Marsski said:
The reds just win series w EDLC, they just do. I think they get to Burnes tonight, should be 90ish at first pitch so the ball will be sailing...could be a good night for an HR props...Votto, India, Adames, Contreras, and Perkins all have HRs in limited ABs vs tonight's starters...starting to believe in Ashcraft but he could give up some street pieces.
Click to expand...

There def room to score more than they did off Burnes the 1st couple times, he walked freaking 4 in both games! I def think they can get to him a little. I want to like Ashcraft, I was a big fan before he started getting rocked this year. There def been some improvement the last few, just not sure milw a good matchup, strange to say brewers offense a bad matchup for any pitcher but they can draw walks and hit bombs which I think his biggest issue. Nats make contact but they not that kind of team, they played more into his hands than brewers do imo. Over keeps screaming at me even tho I feel like they pretty much got the number right where they put it.
 
2daBank said:
There def room to score more than they did off Burnes the 1st couple times, he walked freaking 4 in both games! I def think they can get to him a little. I want to like Ashcraft, I was a big fan before he started getting rocked this year. There def been some improvement the last few, just not sure milw a good matchup, strange to say brewers offense a bad matchup for any pitcher but they can draw walks and hit bombs which I think his biggest issue. Nats make contact but they not that kind of team, they played more into his hands than brewers do imo. Over keeps screaming at me even tho I feel like they pretty much got the number right where they put it.
Click to expand...
I never play HR props but hunting numbers on Votto, India and Adames....maybe one more...yeah I would play 9.5 over but no value at 10
 
Early public dogs, not playing against them with the return from ASB but most of the day there were a bunch. It's simmered down a little as first pitch gets closer

Pirates, Snakes big, Cleveland big, Houston big

Royals were the biggest but game postponed
 
KJ said:
Early public dogs, not playing against them with the return from ASB but most of the day there were a bunch. It's simmered down a little as first pitch gets closer

Pirates, Snakes big, Cleveland big, Houston big

Royals were the biggest but game postponed
Click to expand...
Looking at the Astros myself against trash panda Angels who are 18-34 as favs, good luck brother in whatever you play
 
Marsski said:
Looking at the Astros myself against trash panda Angels who are 18-34 as favs, good luck brother in whatever you play
Click to expand...
I'm not playing those tonight but typically they've been hitting at a high clip the last month at least but the play is against those teams

The three dogs I marked as big are showing at at least 75% of wagers are on them, most of the day it was in the 80s for all three but it inherently always comes down a bit before first pitch. Read into it what you will.

I think I could only be on Houston tonight so good luck on em
 
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