Friday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

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Jun 24 Fri 2022

06:40 PM
951New York MetsT. Walker -R+1½
-195		+119O 7½
+105
952Miami MarlinsS. Alcantara -R-1½
+170		-129U 7½
-125
07:05 PM
961Houston AstrosJ. Verlander -R+1½
-195		+111O 7½
-125
962New York YankeesL. Severino -R-1½
+170		-121U 7½
+105
07:10 PM
963Boston Red SoxN. Pivetta -R-1½
+150		-115O 8½
-115
964Cleveland GuardiansC. Quantrill -R+1½
-170		+105U 8½
-105
07:10 PM
971Pittsburgh PiratesM. Keller -R+1½
-120		+182O 7½
-105
972Tampa Bay RaysJ. Springs -L-1½
+100		-198U 7½
-115
07:20 PM
953Los Angeles DodgersJ. Urias -L-1½
+125		-128O 9½
-110
954Atlanta BravesI. Anderson -R+1½
-145		+118U 9½
-110
08:05 PM
973Washington NationalsP. Espino -R+1½
-140		+153O 9
-105
974Texas RangersD. Dunning -R-1½
+120		-166U 9
-115
08:10 PM
965Oakland AthleticsC. Irvin -L+1½
-170		+118O 9
-105
966Kansas City RoyalsZ. Greinke -R-1½
+150		-128U 9
-115
08:10 PM
967Baltimore OriolesK. Bradish -R+1½
-140		+149O 8½
-120
968Chicago White SoxM. Kopech -R-1½
+120		-162U 8½
+100
08:10 PM
975Colorado RockiesG. Marquez -R+1½
-145		+142O 9½
-105
976Minnesota TwinsD. Bundy -R-1½
+125		-154U 9½
-115
08:10 PM
977Toronto Blue JaysA. Manoah -R-1½
+110		-151O 8½
-110
978Milwaukee BrewersA. Houser -R+1½
-130		+139U 8½
-110
08:15 PM
955Chicago CubsK. Hendricks -R+1½
-145		+142O 9
-110
956St. Louis CardinalsA. Pallante -R-1½
+125		-154U 9
-110
09:38 PM
969Seattle MarinersC. Flexen -R+1½
-150		+144O 9
-115
970Los Angeles AngelsM. Lorenzen -R-1½
+130		-156U 9
-105
09:40 PM
957Philadelphia PhilliesA. Nola -R-1½
+155		-127O 7
-115
958San Diego PadresM. Gore -L+1½
-175		+117U 7
-105
09:40 PM
979Detroit TigersR. Garcia -R+1½
-155		+145O 8½
-115
980Arizona DiamondbacksM. Kelly -R-1½
+135		-157U 8½
-105
10:15 PM
959Cincinnati RedsG. Ashcraft -R+1½
-130		+172O 8
-115
960San Francisco GiantsA. Cobb -R-1½
+110		-187U 8
-105
 
Alcontera in one those spots I hate facing same team in b2b starts, last time he had it vs Braves he went and dominated them for a 2nd straight start. I know he capable but fuck, we got +140ish on him last time in flushing meadows, now he is -129? Walker was pretty freaking dominant himself vs fish last week. Man I hate this, had we had few starts between this I’d be all over the FF under.
 
Who wrote this drivel you can find on fangraphs under alcontera name?

Prospects TLDR: It's become more likely that Alcantara, who has elite arm strength, will end up as a dominant two-pitch reliever due to issues with his command and breaking ball efficacy.

has that just been up for several years and never taken down? Safe to say that was a miss, lol. Is that why cards thought it was ok to trade him and Gallen for Ozuna? I loved him when he was a cardinal, I didn’t hate the trade then even tho I hated giving him up so not gonna act like a hindsight asshole on cards for it,, I thought Ozuna was the middle the order stud we needed at the time also, and we were still stacked in pitching department, or so we thought! I had no clue who Gallen even was yet, it was prob a mistake shipping them both! Lol
 
Even with both lineups seeing these pitchers b2b starts I still think FF under be good assuming it 3.5. Historically walker not as good on 5 days but he been lethal this year and really the career numbers deceiving as his ops on 5 been better than 4 the last 4 seasons, must have been really bad early on to explain the career splits. Hate seeing Alcantera on 4, he been pretty good on 4 but he been microscopic going on 5 days rest this year with a era under 1 and ops allowed well under .500!!!! So not his ideal day and he has like a 70 cent price shift, is the difference between walker and Bassitt that drastic? I don’t think so, even if you shave a little for home field which I typically don’t. They kinda making my guy unplayable here. I know -129 doesn’t seem like a huge price but compared to last time out vs same team it crazy.
 
Should get a reasonable number on Manoah k’s and I could see this being a higher strikeout game vs milw. I would think his 4 seamer and slider be tougher to hit than what they been seeing from cards pitchers the last 4 days where they saw a couple pitch to contact guys, a not himself flaherty, and waino who fanned them 7x in 4.2 innings!! Gotta think this be a standard 5.5, I expect he not only fans them at a strong clip but he should go 6+ so lot of time to hit that number. Hope I’m right on reasonably priced 5.5!!
 
Red Sox feel cheap but Cleveland pretty hot themselves. Just think ya getting better lineup and better starting pitcher at less than -120. Tribe been away from home for a minute w no day off, Sox got the day to travel and relax, seems like a pretty sweet spot to back small road fav.
 
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Pirates been fanning quite a bit vs the lefties they have seen recently. I’ll be real interested to see where they put springs k prop. Gotta think he can go 5-6 innings vs these guys, should mean he fans 6 at least.
 
I still can’t get over Bradish only good start all year coming against cardinals! Lol. Should be a bounce back game for CWS if their offense really been improving which I think it has. Not sure I want to lay the number tho? Maybe a team total or I dunno, certainly no interest in O’s.
 
Don’t see many dogs I’m excited bout yet. Not sure I buy snakes laying -150s without Gallen on bump?
 
See where they put Kelly out prop, gotta think he has pretty good shot to go 6 innings vs tigers lifeless offense. Think that would be only way I could get into that game would be a over out prop I’m assuming would be 16.5 or 17.5 at most.
 
I lied, one more thought just occurred to me thinking bout cards game and think it worth bringing up. I don’t hardly ever play hitter props, I actually been pretty good the few times I’ve come up w one tho and think I got one here. @VirginiaCavs might be able to back me up on this one as I’m sure he has seen Gorman hit a lot.

I was just thinking bout all the times Hendricks has dominated cards over the years w his low in the zone junk that makes us look stupid and the thought just occurred to me he has never pitched to Gorman, if ya havnt seen him much this kid has a beautiful low ball hitting lefty swing, the guys who been getting him out been doing it up in the zone, I’m not sure Hendricks has any interest pitching up or can even do so effectively if he wanted to? Give me Gorman over 1.5 bases at +125 and I’ll take a stab at his home run +370 also, just a hunch but think he perfect to hit the shit Hendricks always beats us with!
 
2daBank said:
I lied, one more thought just occurred to me thinking bout cards game and think it worth bringing up. I don’t hardly ever play hitter props, I actually been pretty good the few times I’ve come up w one tho and think I got one here. @VirginiaCavs might be able to back me up on this one as I’m sure he has seen Gorman hit a lot.

I was just thinking bout all the times Hendricks has dominated cards over the years w his low in the zone junk that makes us look stupid and the thought just occurred to me he has never pitched to Gorman, if ya havnt seen him much this kid has a beautiful low ball hitting lefty swing, the guys who been getting him out been doing it up in the zone, I’m not sure Hendricks has any interest pitching up or can even do so effectively if he wanted to? Give me Gorman over 1.5 bases at +125 and I’ll take a stab at his home run +370 also, just a hunch but think he perfect to hit the shit Hendricks always beats us with!
Click to expand...

Gorman slugging .250 (4/16) against pitches thrown very low in the zone, .400 (7/20) against pitches thrown low in the zone, .333 (2/6) against changeup low in the zone, all six of which coming from righties
 
2daBank said:
Alcontera in one those spots I hate facing same team in b2b starts, last time he had it vs Braves he went and dominated them for a 2nd straight start. I know he capable but fuck, we got +140ish on him last time in flushing meadows, now he is -129? Walker was pretty freaking dominant himself vs fish last week. Man I hate this, had we had few starts between this I’d be all over the FF under.
Click to expand...
Doubt it sees 5 runs
 
First run through before actually looking

ff Alcantera/Walker u3.5
Verlander over ks
Nats tt o3.5 -130 big
Nola -135

All I got at first glance
 
KJ said:
First run through before actually looking

ff Alcantera/Walker u3.5
Verlander over ks
Nats tt o3.5 -130 big
Nola -135

All I got at first glance
Click to expand...

Why so high on nats tt? It just seems so random to me on this card, not a great hitters park, dunning ain’t terrible, and they have scored less than that in like 6 of last 8. I’m not saying ya wrong just super curious why ya like it so much?
 
fuckers taxed manoah ov 5,5 more than I woulda liked but I think it worth eating the -160 for real. I’d be shocked if he didn’t pitch at least 6 innings if not deeper and fan at least 1 per inning vs these guys. The price dropping on jays weird to me tho, the Ff -.5 way cheaper than I thought it be.
 
Looking for one Over game today between a few games...Col, Was or Seattle game, which one likely goes over the total today?
 
Man I just had my eyes dilated at eye Dr so it kinda tough to do this shit at moment.. it weird, it don’t effect me a ton prob cause all the drugs I do that dilate them! But my close range vision worse and I gotta look at shit further away than I’m used to! Lol
 
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Fuxker charged me 70 bucks to tell me I gotta go to a better eye Dr than him, lol, what kind of bs I’d that? At least I don’t have torn Retina which I was really worried bout.
 
2daBank said:
Fuxker charged me 70 bucks to tell me I gotta go to a better eye Dr than him, lol, what kind of bs I’d that? At least I don’t have torn Retina which I was really worried bout.
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Love everything about new insurance except vision, upped the co pay to $70 from $35 on my old policy. At least I never have to pay a dime for scripts now.

Haven't had the eyes dilated in several years, probably next outing it needs to be done.
 
2daBank said:
Why so high on nats tt? It just seems so random to me on this card, not a great hitters park, dunning ain’t terrible, and they have scored less than that in like 6 of last 8. I’m not saying ya wrong just super curious why ya like it so much?
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Barring anything crazy regarding weather/ump I love the Nats getting to face Dunning (who I don't like at all) in that park off them getting shut out and a day off. Completely situational regardless, but I love getting to face Dunning. Guaranteed 27 outs too. Could end up looking stupid if they can't score again, if the shutout was last night I wouldn't play it. But they did nothing on Wednesday, basically full day and a half to chew on that, I think they come out and rake. I like over in the game as well but chose this route, we all know neither Nats or Rangers lineups are scary, but I think both pitchers are far from scary.
 
KJ said:
Love everything about new insurance except vision, upped the co pay to $70 from $35 on my old policy. At least I never have to pay a dime for scripts now.

Haven't had the eyes dilated in several years, probably next outing it needs to be done.
Click to expand...

I was pretty scared I had fucked my retina up over wearing my contacts. All a sudden one day last week I had like hella floaters in my left eye and looking right out of it I can’t see shit. At least he told me he didn’t see any detachment but said I had some bs I forget at moment and told me I had to go to whatever they call the md eye dr’s. anyways whatever,, at least I ain’t going blind.. lol
 
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KJ said:
Love everything about new insurance except vision, upped the co pay to $70 from $35 on my old policy. At least I never have to pay a dime for scripts now.

Haven't had the eyes dilated in several years, probably next outing it needs to be done.
Click to expand...

I had great insurance till I gave all that shit up in favor of cash and being able to work pretty much whenever I want and what jobs I want to do instead of having to freaking be somewhere every damn morning for 8 hours, I like making the same without the taxes in 4-5 hours most the time. Not like I go to dr very often outside my once a year for eye dr, if I wasn’t so blind I wouldn’t go to any, I used to just order my contacts from outside country so didn’t have to renew script but seeing how my eyes have gotten continually worse after starting from shit I figure prob a good Idea to try and take care of them, dunno wtf I would do with myself sitting around fuckinv blind! That would blow! I mean 1 eye be ok but not both! Lol
 
2daBank said:
I had great insurance till I gave all that shit up in favor of cash and being able to work pretty much whenever I want and what jobs I want to do instead of having to freaking be somewhere every damn morning for 8 hours, I like making the same without the taxes in 4-5 hours most the time. Not like I go to dr very often outside my once a year for eye dr, if I wasn’t so blind I wouldn’t go to any, I used to just order my contacts from outside country so didn’t have to renew script but seeing how my eyes have gotten continually worse after starting from shit I figure prob a good Idea to try and take care of them, dunno wtf I would do with myself sitting around fuckinv blind! That would blow! I mean 1 eye be ok but not both! Lol
Click to expand...
This was my first year on company insurance, had been doing my own policy for years but the deductible is much less and so is the ER. When you're 47 but live like you're 27, I didn't realize how frequently the ER gets visited! Fortunately doc and specialists are all covered, have needed them both more over the last few years as well as meds. Old insurance and last year would have been f'n expensive, same as the year going forward I'm thinking. Doesn't suck having the company option. Not like I ever have to be anywhere for it!
 
The referral for other dr say congruous visual field defects. Whatever the fuck that means, lol. Then he said some shit bout fluid or gel on the eye why I got all the floaters. Anyway he made it sound far less serious than the detached retina, god knows wtf it woulda ran me if I had to get that surgery!
 
KJ said:
This was my first year on company insurance, had been doing my own policy for years but the deductible is much less and so is the ER. When you're 47 but live like you're 27, I didn't realize how frequently the ER gets visited! Fortunately doc and specialists are all covered, have needed them both more over the last few years as well as meds. Old insurance and last year would have been f'n expensive, same as the year going forward I'm thinking. Doesn't suck having the company option. Not like I ever have to be anywhere for it!
Click to expand...

I usually go way out of my way to avoid emergency room. I’ve super glued some pretty big gashes back together. It been at least 7-8 years and it was cause I got hurt at work, I wouldn’t have went that time either but my tooth went thru my lip and I didn’t want to look like a freak with lip detached from mouth! Lol. Didn’t even bother my big stupid head that I had something heavy enough dropped on me that it bounced my face off the ground.
 
Prolly just conjuctivitis, get it 3-4 times a year

For me I think it comes with desert allergies, never had them growing up but I end up touching my contacts/eyes a lot so a dose of pink eye doesn't surprise me much anymore
 
Yea I guess: he even said I could put contacts back in which cool, I hadn’t been wearing them in case my retina was detached I figured it prob wasn’t good idea to to fooling around w contact. I guess they can fix whatever the hell going on, it will really piss me off I gotta pay for another Dr visit next week and they say there nothing to do bout it!!
 
KJ said:
Barring anything crazy regarding weather/ump I love the Nats getting to face Dunning (who I don't like at all) in that park off them getting shut out and a day off. Completely situational regardless, but I love getting to face Dunning. Guaranteed 27 outs too. Could end up looking stupid if they can't score again, if the shutout was last night I wouldn't play it. But they did nothing on Wednesday, basically full day and a half to chew on that, I think they come out and rake. I like over in the game as well but chose this route, we all know neither Nats or Rangers lineups are scary, but I think both pitchers are far from scary.
Click to expand...

Right on. Like I said I don’t really have anything against it, I’m not a huge dunning fan or anything, nats offense has just been pretty consistently bad lately so was curious.
 
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Damn, these fuckers actually came with a 18.5 out total for Merrill Kelly, I sure didn’t see that coming!! Not sure how the hell it justified having him going past 6 innings? He has only done that in 3 of his 14 starts, I loved him to get thru 6 against tigers but I just didn’t think they would have the nerve to put him above that!! Makes it unplayable.

I saw springs opened at 5.5 k’s with bout same amount of juice as Manoah, I was def thinking a 2 teamer with those 2 guys would be money but springs got bet up to 6.5 k’s. Man, I loved the idea of 6 k’s cashing, I think he absolutely gets to that number, he might get to 7 but not nearly as confident. Tampa has a quick trigger with all their pitchers so we can’t really count on him going much past 5 innings, there is certainly the potential for him to go 6+ vs pirates and if he does that I do think he will hit 7k’s. Just not real excited having to sweat out the beginning of every inning to see if rays leave him in the game long enough to hit this!

Kinda surprised to see Cobb k number only being 4.5, is he healthy? If so this should def be 5.5.
 
2daBank said:
Damn, these fuckers actually came with a 18.5 out total for Merrill Kelly, I sure didn’t see that coming!! Not sure how the hell it justified having him going past 6 innings? He has only done that in 3 of his 14 starts, I loved him to get thru 6 against tigers but I just didn’t think they would have the nerve to put him above that!! Makes it unplayable.
Click to expand...
They've been stretching him out to where 95-105 pitches now, that's really what it comes down to. All about getting quick outs against a team that has no problem doing that.
 
They only let Cobb throw 60 pitches his 1st start back off IL so that a bit concerning if he limited to 80 pitches or so. Tried to do little reading to see if they have a number for him tonight but havnt found anything. Reds havnt been a high strikeout team in June, maybe better to just leave it alone. Just hard to not be interested in him at 4.5.
 
KJ said:
They've been stretching him out to where 95-105 pitches now, that's really what it comes down to. All about getting quick outs against a team that has no problem doing that.
Click to expand...

Yea I was really hoping to play his out total over. I just didn’t think the pricks would come with a 18.5, i assumed 17.5 at the most. I def think he will go 6 vs these guys, I don’t play hardly anyone to go past 6, just the studs who consistently do which are rare.
 
twinkie13 said:
Nats the play?

I watch Rangers quite a bit down here. They strike out quite a bit yea?
Click to expand...
Nats starter is a converted reliever only making his 3rd start, they seem to have an early hook on him of course. Means Rangers might see 4-5 different pitchers tonight, why I went with the team total. I don't like Dunning at all but in one of these games that I expect several pitching changes, never know what that means in the grand scheme.
 
twinkie13 said:
Nats the play?

I watch Rangers quite a bit down here. They strike out quite a bit yea?
Click to expand...

Lately. The 1st month or 2 they were actually striking out far less than past seasons. I dunno what their clip been this month but I’m guessing it a lot higher than it is for entire season.
 
I really don’t have any opinion on the nats/rangers. That is a hefty price tag for dunning and rangers but I have no confidence in the nats. If you made me play it I’d prob take the plus money but no chance I’d be confident bout it.
 
KJ said:
Nats starter is a converted reliever only making his 3rd start, they seem to have an early hook on him of course. Means Rangers might see 4-5 different pitchers tonight, why I went with the team total. I don't like Dunning at all but in one of these games that I expect several pitching changes, never know what that means in the grand scheme.
Click to expand...

They let him throw 89 pitches last outing so think it safe to assume he to the point of being stretched out. I dunno shit bout him other than I think if he pitching well he should be able to go 5+.
 
I don’t even like trying to cap guys who have mostly relief appearances cause their velo and k’s per 9 tend to dip quite a bit when they make transition to starter.
 
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2daBank said:
They let him throw 89 pitches last outing so think it safe to assume he to the point of being stretched out. I dunno shit bout him other than I think if he pitching well he should be able to go 5+.
Click to expand...
Other way to look at it though, that was 45 more than he threw in a game all year really. How does the arm respond to that? Might be talking myself into the over in general here
 
KJ said:
Other way to look at it though, that was 45 more than he threw in a game all year really. How does the arm respond to that? Might be talking myself into the over in general here
Click to expand...

No you right, that fair/reasonable question for sure.
 
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He has had 6 days since last start but I suppose that brings up another question as he typically doesn’t take that long between outings. I have no clue if he started in minors or not?
 
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