Friday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
May 7 Fri 2021

1:20 PM
951Pittsburgh PiratesT. Cahill -R+126
952Chicago CubsZ. Davies -R-136
6:05 PM
963Boston Red SoxE. Rodriguez -L-1½
-105		-162O 9
+105
964Baltimore OriolesM. Harvey -R+1½
-115		+149U 9
-125
6:05 PM
975Washington NationalsP. Corbin -L+1½
-120		+166O 9
-120
976New York YankeesJ. Tallion -R-1½
+100		-181U 9
+100
6:10 PM
955Arizona DiamondbacksZ. Gallen -R+1½
-173		+121O 8
+105
956New York MetsD. Peterson -L-1½
+153		-131U 8
-125
6:10 PM
965Minnesota TwinsM. Shoemaker -R-1½
+110		-140O 9
+100
966Detroit TigersT. Skubal -L+1½
-130		+130U 9
-120
6:10 PM
977Cincinnati RedsW. Miley -L+1½
-165		+123O 8½
-115
978Cleveland IndiansZ. Plesac -R-1½
+145		-133U 8½
-105
6:20 PM
957Philadelphia PhilliesZ. Eflin -R+1½
-150		+139O 8½
-105
958Atlanta BravesC. Morton -R-1½
+130		-150U 8½
-115
7:05 PM
967Seattle MarinersC. Flexen -R-1½
+130		-115O 8½
-125
968Texas RangersM. Foltynewicz -R+1½
-150		+105U 8½
+105
7:10 PM
969Chicago White SoxC. Rodon -L-1½
+100		-148O 9
+105
970Kansas City RoyalsB. Keller -R+1½
-120		+137U 9
-125
7:10 PM
971Toronto Blue JaysR. Stripling -R+1½
-165		+113O 9
-110
972Houston AstrosJ. Urquidy -R-1½
+145		-123U 9
-110
7:15 PM
959Colorado RockiesA. Gomber -L+1½
-120		+180O 7
-125
960St. Louis CardinalsJ. Flaherty -R-1½
+100		-196U 7
+105
8:38 PM
979Los Angeles DodgersJ. Urias -L-1½
-105		-150O 8½
-125
980Los Angeles AngelsG. Canning -R+1½
-115		+139U 8½
+105
8:40 PM
973Tampa Bay RaysR. Hill -L+1½
-160		+127O 8
-115
974Oakland AthleticsS. Manaea -L-1½
+140		-137U 8
-105
8:45 PM
961San Diego PadresB. Snell -L-1½
+125		-140O 7
-110
962San Francisco GiantsA. Desclafani -R+1½
-145		+130U 7
-110
 
Last edited:
Skubal will get their eventually...

Lotta pitches for this team last three days...

Twins up n down offensively...

Feels like a possible TT with Twins but need to look at them deeper....
 
Ynao, Anderson, Fried are good. Morton or Smiley will be ok. Let’s wait to see how Soroka comes back

Lineup is strong to very strong

May need to get a strong reliever-closer although Will Smith has nasty stuff to close
 
Ticketwindow said:
Ynao, Anderson, Fried are good. Morton or Smiley will be ok. Let’s wait to see how Soroka comes back

Lineup is strong to very strong

May need to get a strong reliever-closer although Will Smith has nasty stuff to close
Click to expand...

Soroka had a setback i thought? I'm still not a believer in Matzek to Minter and a 3 LHP good bullpen
 
B.A.R. said:
Skubal will get their eventually...

Lotta pitches for this team last three days...

Twins up n down offensively...

Feels like a possible TT with Twins but need to look at them deeper....
Click to expand...

i don't think i can violate my 2021 no Tigers rule, but if there's ever a time it's this one
 
GWarner27 said:
Soroka had a setback i thought? I'm still not a believer in Matzek to Minter and a 3 LHP good bullpen
Click to expand...
He did. Should be back in 6 weeks from what I am hearing. I like Minter but need help in pen, I think. Basically same group of guys that were lights out in playoff last year, minus Melancon.
 
AtlHawks said:
Chris Martin coming back will help the pen as well.

Guarantee you Braves GM will pull off some shit at the deadline.

No need to panic or rush, I would rather the offense be clicking at the end of season.
Click to expand...
Agreed (one of my futures along with Padres so bringing back my early 90s Braves fandom).
 
As stated yesterday, I don’t seem to being seeing things well right now but doesn’t the Cubs total seem extremely low? Is it weather related?
 
LOL shoe @ -145 I know the Tigers pen is probably decimated but holy crap
 
I want to back Arizona again with Gallen, but that offense just wasted MadBum's start coming off a shitty showing prior to that.
 
Yankees over 9, Tigers over 9, Tigers ML, Seattle ML, Oakland ML, Padres under

Those are on my shortlist for now.
 
gsro said:
I want to back Arizona again with Gallen, but that offense just wasted MadBum's start coming off a shitty showing prior to that.
Click to expand...
w/o looking it feels like the Snakes bats always disappear when going to Miami and winds up diseasing them for a bit, beware
 
12 mph winds for fly ball pitchers could keep the total low in Chicago. Cold too. I’ll watch a half frame before texting my bet in.
 
Ticketwindow said:
He did. Should be back in 6 weeks from what I am hearing. I like Minter but need help in pen, I think. Basically same group of guys that were lights out in playoff last year, minus Melancon.
Click to expand...

that's a monster minus. Must have gotten outbid, which is silly since he kept that group together
 
gsro said:
I want to back Arizona again with Gallen, but that offense just wasted MadBum's start coming off a shitty showing prior to that.
Click to expand...

that park is very difficult to hit in to be fair

KJ said:
w/o looking it feels like the Snakes bats always disappear when going to Miami and winds up diseasing them for a bit, beware
Click to expand...

can't even blame it on LIV this time
 
ERod draws his old club, it's been a while so nothing gained from that. Lineup missing Kiké leading off Marwin who hasn't hit since he was stealing signs in H-town, but after him the lineup looks okay until 7-9. BAL lineup isn't out yet, but not expecting too much besides Mullins who just hits. Not sure anybody missing besides maybe Mancini even moves the line much since they don't have any big names

Bullpens are a question, but the changeup closer for BAL is still getting outs. Lakins and Scott are the other important arms with Plutko somehow revitalizing a career that saw a few decent spot starts in CLE. Day off yesterday means everybody is available, which is important as I'm not sure Harvey will offer too much length. BAL 1-1 vs BOS in his starts this season, low K-rate is scary though it seems like the northeast has been pretty cold so far this season. BAL has won his last three starts and wasn't bad vs SEA in the loss, but they will have to get to BOS to win as i don't think Harvey can make this a full-on pitcher's duel.

BOS has won 4 of ERod's 5 starts, last time out was the loser but not on his ledger. He left after only 67 pitches, odd but K rate looked okay and maybe just didn't have it. WHIP has been good so far this year even though ERA hasn't, now we turn to the bullpen to hold his lead.

Otto b3b should be down so that means Hernandez to Barnes with someone to bridge that 7th inning. Hernandez has a big arm, but his attempt at being a starter ended due to lack of control. I don't like people who can't throw strikes, so if this one is close late i don't love how the ball gets from ERod to Barnes

But is that enough to back BAL? THey've been overperforming, but some teams do that for more than just a month. Lineup has been quiet but competitive, bullpen far better than expected. Batting last means something, whether they had to get it coming back from the west coast or not.

It's a decent help that BOS had to play a wild one yesterday and really didn't look great despite winning the home series against DET's league bottom offense, can't fault anybody for pulling the trigger on the O's

Anybody wanna talk me off?
 
Play2win said:
Lean SF with ya
Click to expand...
descla coming back to earth eventually, but off to a great start and it seems like SD gets up for LAD but has not looked great against much inferior competition a lot of this season. Really not sure what SF is, but can't argue that they have been winning this year and 2020 so it's not a fluke
 
No WSH lineup yet, Corbin low k% and some really terrible outings so far. Not a Taillon believer, but not sure they go into the Bronx and steal one unless they can smack Taillon around early. If Corbin is struggling to K batters and has to go LvR pitching to contact in the BX, i'll find better places to lose money like soccer where i get backdoored in stoppage time every single match
 
Inspekdah said:
Under 7 at plus money looks good in Queens
Click to expand...

play 1H i'm begging you, if it goes to extras you're ruined

Gallen should be able to get through a NYM lineup that hasn't been good, despite NYM getting a lot of credit from oddsmakers in the series @ STL (might be anti-StL rather than pro-NYM but idk). Same probably can be said for ARI, Kelly has been mashing but surprised to see him in the 2-hole. Walker fresh off the IL probably needs to get some more ABs to return to what he was last year, but i don't see this lineup being that much weaker than NYM.

Peterson was nearly out of SNB in the first inning, but bounced back from a rough start to deal a pretty good outing. He's been all over the place this season, though 3 of his 5 starts were vs PHI and saw some good K numbers. Not so much vs CHC, BOS, but 2/2 QS at home and he gets to be there tonight.

Bullpens are most important, I think i'm officially worried about ARI. Gallen completed all 7 in the 1st half of a DH in ATL when the Braves were handing out SHO, other than that hasn't reached 6 in the other three starts. That may be asking too much of ARI who are trying to bring their young guys into high leverage roles, but have not proven they can do it yet. All should be available, but Bukauskas/Ginkle/Crichton/Devenski/Soria are all hard to trust right now in a close game.

May may not be available for NYM, maybe not Diaz either after 24 pitches ayer in his return from a back issue. That could mean Gsellman to Famillia and we've seen how wild Jeurys can be. It's been too long since Hildenberger got outs regularly, but if Diaz is available then that's a huge relief for NYM.

If you're backing ARI and they don't knock Peterson around you'll need Gallen to be good and the bullpen to hold his lead for 3+ innings. Possible, especially with how poorly NYM has been hitting. Surely Lindor will be out of his streak eventually, but until then we can't trust him and besides Alonso i'm not sure who is really going to threaten an arm like Gallen's
 
not a fan of MIA offense, Rogers has a very high ceiling but showed one bad inning can cost this team games. Suter is not Scherzer, and this will be a bullpen game for MIL, but that's what they're built to do. Maybe Suter goes 3, which asks for a lot of coverage from the bullpen. Everyone besides Perdomo should be available thanks to Woodruff's great start yesterday, Hader would get the last 3 outs then Feyereisen or Williams before him. Other three innings likely to fall to Boxberger then i guess Rasmussen and who knows gets the last, not great especially if this one hits extras where the pen will be exhausted.

MIL enters off a 4-game sweep in PHI, not good. Lineup has not hit and looks very weak, same can be said for Miami but they are at home and don't have to cover so many innings unless Rogers doesn't deliver. I think this is a skip for my Suter interest
 
Eflin's shortest start this season is 6 innings, pretty impressive through 6. Two have been against ATL, 13ip 5er is not bad and offering length is probably most important. Wheeler finishing yesterday's game was big to enter this series with a fresh pen, looks like Alvarado to Neris is the 8-9 and Coonrod/Brogdon/Kintzler if Eflin can't get through 7.

Morton off two poor starts hasn't gone more than 6 this year. I still think he's a good pitcher, but i've said how i'm not as confident in the all L ATL bullpen. Morton's K rate has been good, alraedy saw PHI twice 11ip 4r in two decent starts. Smith worked b2b, but has done 3 in a row earlier this season so should be available tonight.

PHI lineup has Harper and Realmuto unlike yesterday, but didn't need them, Segura returns to the lineup off the IL rehab stint, too. I go back and forth with that lineup, but at least it's full tonight. Still no idea how to get Acuna out, but the rest of the ATL lineup has been pretty soft. Eflin has held Acuna, Albies, Freeman and Ozuna (1-4) all below .278 average with no slugging% above .500 and I'd say that's pretty good.

PHI priced at 43% to win this one seems a little low to me, if you like gambling PHI is probably worth it
 
not really sure waht to do with SEA/TEX as both teams have been overperforming and Flexen's pitch-to-contact ways scare me. In that big park it shouldn't get him too banged up, but Crawford hitting 5th with a lot of outs batting after him off the no-no does not make me feel great about backing them. Curious about what Folty will show this season, he had a quick fall after being in the Cy race

Day off yesterday for the M's was probably much-needed, TEX didn't use the good pen yet still won so i may just differ to last AB and skip
 
gsro said:
LOL shoe @ -145 I know the Tigers pen is probably decimated but holy crap
Click to expand...
Damn, I wish I logged in before the game. Shoe is a better pitcher than Skubal atm. Skubal is just a worse version of himself last year. I'm starting to worry about Scooby.
 
GWarner27 said:
descla coming back to earth eventually, but off to a great start and it seems like SD gets up for LAD but has not looked great against much inferior competition a lot of this season. Really not sure what SF is, but can't argue that they have been winning this year and 2020 so it's not a fluke
Click to expand...
I don’t disagree with any of this, great assessment
 
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