Fondybadger's 2006-2007 College Football Bowls

Fondybadger

Fondybadger

CTG Partner
2006 College Football 344-322-16 +$2873
Week 1 37-33-1 +$286
Week 2 26-25-2 +$757
Week 3 19-6-2 +$1357
Week 4 25-20-2 +$13
Week 5 29-29-1-$343
Week 6 35-41-1 -$884
Week 7 38-27-1 +$2885
Week 8 30-44-1 -$1798
Week 9 25-25-1 -$443
Week 10 43-36-3 +$1287
Week 11 20-22-2 -$965
Week 12 3-6 -$236<o></o>
Week 13 7-4 +$562
Week 14 7-4 +$395<o></o>

1st Quarter Record 15-20 -$275
1Q ATS 8-10 -$149
1Q ML 1-2 -$73
1Q Tot 6-8 -$53

1st Half Record 98-84-2 +$1534
1H ATS 81-73-2 +$1450
1H ML 0-2 -$150
1H Tot 17-9 +$234

2nd Half Record 33-37 -$748
2H ATS 28-31 -$451
2H ML 1-2 -$25
2H Tot 4-4 -$272

Full Game Record 198-181-13 +$2362
ATS 168-147-13 +$2776
ML 2-5 -$59
Tot 28-29 -355<o></o>

I'll be using this window to update all of my bowl plays. I should be able to have enough time to do write-ups on each game, and more than likely I'll have at least something on everygame.

Bowl Game Record 61-64 -$1329
​

1st Quarter 2-2 +$19
W $50 TCU 1Q -3 +101
W $50 Wake Forest 1Q +3 +101
L $50 Hawaii 1Q -0.5 -115
L $25 BYU 1Q -0.5 +119

1Q Totals 1-4 -$109
 W $50 Rutgers/KState 1Q Over 9.5 -105
L $50 LSU/ND 1Q under 10.5 +105
L $50 Cal/A&M 1Q under 10 -110
L $25 Rice/Troy 1Q under 10.5 -125
L $25 USF/EC 1Q under 7.5

1st Half 9-11 -$814
W $250 TCU 1H -6.5 -115
W $250 Rutgers 1H -4
W $250 Wisconsin 1H +0.5 -104
W $150 Utah 1H -1
W $150 Central Michigan 1H -4
W $100 BYU 1H ML -130
W $75 Okie State 1H -0.5
W $50 California 1H ML -134
W $75 LSU 1H -4.5L
L $75 Wake Forest +6 -102
L $150 Hawaii 1H -4
L $150 Rice 1H -3 +100
L $75 UCLA 1H ML -143
L $300 Texas Tech 1H -3 -125
L $75 Clemson 1H -6
L $250 South Carolina 1H -3
L $200 Boston College 1H -4
L $250 Texas 1H -6 +101
L $200 Nevada 1H ML +121
L $250 Tennessee 1H -2.5 -105

1H Totals 3-6 -$30
W $125 Rutgers/KState 1H Over 23 +109
W $75 Texas/Iowa 1H under 26.5 +105
W $150 Texas Tech/Minnesota 1H Over OVER 33.5 +106
L $75 Oregon State/Missouri 1H under 26.5
L $75 OSU/Bama 1H under 24.5L
L $75 Rice/Troy 1H under 24.5 +113
L $50 BYU/Oregon 1H Over 30.5
L $50 USF/EC 1H under 21.5
 L $50 Hawaii/ASU 1H over 35

2H Plays 0-3 -$810
L $350 UCLA 2H ML +106
L $250 Rice/Troy 2H Over 27 +111
L $200 Clemson 2H -8 -105

2H Totals 1-1-1 +$0
W $175 UCLA/FSU 2H Over 21 -102
Push $100 Clem/Kent 2H Over 28 -113
L $175 Rice -3 2H -113

Game Plays 16-14 -$1204
W $500 Rutgers -7 -112
W $400 Central Michigan -7 -113
W $350 TCU -12
W $300 Hawaii -7
W $300 California -3
W $250 Oklahoma State -2.5
W $250 Utah -2
W $200 BYU -3 -105
W $175 South Florida -4.5
 W $175 Georgia Tech +11
W $400 Wisconsin +3 -114
W $350 South Carolina -5
W $75 Maryland +1 +100
W $300 Nevada +3.5
W $350 Wisconsin ML +118
W $250 LSU -8.5
L $200 Wake Forest +10
L $300 Rice -4 -115
L $250 UCLA -3
L $1600 Texas Tech -6.5 -115 (-1805)
L $200 Nevada ML +145
L $300 Tennessee -4 +102
L $175 Oregon State -3 -106
L $450 Boston College -7 -106
L $175 Clemson -10 -105
L $500 Texas -8.5
L $300 Virginia Tech -2.5
L $200 Nebraska +2
L $300 Michigan -1 L $450 Oklahoma -7

Game Totals 9-7 +$696
W $225 Rutgers/KState over 44
W $200 Texas Tech/Minnesota Over 65
W $250 Texas Tech Team Total OVER 36.5 -107
W $200 BYU Over 32.5
W $150 TT/Minny Over 63 +101
W $175 Texas/Iowa under 53.5
W $100 TCU/NIU under 46.5
W $100 USF/EC under 43
W $100 LSU/ND under 56
L $200 Rice/Troy under 54 +107
L $100 Hawaii/ASU over 71.5
L $100 OSU/Bama under 48
L $100 Cal/A&M under 54
L $75 BYU/Oregon Over 62
L $75 Kentucky/Clemson Over 58.5
L $100 Oregon State/Missouri under 52.5

Props 20-16 +$923
W $200 Over 71.5 net rushing yards by FSU -108
W $200 Over 96.5 net rushing yards by UCLA -108
W $100 Over 233.5 passing yards by Andre Woodson -131 (clemson)
W $125 under 85.5 rushing yards by Rafael Little -108
W $50 Over 65.5 rushing yards by Tony Temple -108 (mizzou)
W $200 Over 197.5 passing yards by Matt Moore -108
W $50 over 77.5 rushing yards by Iowa -115 (Iowa)
W $75 under 264.5 passing yards by Matt Ryan -111
W $150 over 245.5 rushing yards by Navy -108
W $100 over 65.5 rushing yards by L.V. Whitworth -114
W $100 Over 59.5 rushing yards by Hawaii RB Nate Ilaoa -124
W $75 under 72.5 rushing yards by Eugene Gross -108
W $50 Over 179.5 Gross passing yards by all OSU QB's -124
W $50 under 223.5 passing yards by J.P. Wilson +107
W $300 under 270.5 passing yards by Brady Quinn +145
W $100 Will Louisville lead by 1 to 10 at halftime? Yes +165
W $200 under 283.5 passing yards by Brady Quinn -105
W $75 under 2.5 passing TD's by Brady Quinn -105
W $150 Over 67.5 rushing yards by Darius Walker -108
W $250 Over 52.5 rushing yards by Kolby Smith -126
L $200 under 275.5 passing yards by Brian Brohm +112
L $200 under 287.5 passing yards by Brian Brohm +120
L $100 Will Wake Forest lead by 1 to 10 at halftime? Yes +377
L $100 under 255.5 passing yards by JaMarcus Russell +113
L $75 under 162.5 passing yards by Riley Skinner +123
L $50 under 89.5 receiving yards by Harry Douglas +111
L $50 Jeff Samardzija score a TD on a reception? NO +158
L $50 Dwayne Bowe score a TD on a reception? NO +178
L $150 Over 50.5 rushing yards by Ontario Sneed -111
L $150 under 72.5 rushing yards by Dantrell Savage +122
L $125 Over 70.5 rushing yards Kenneth Darby -152
L $75 Over 231.5 passing yards by Dan LeFevour -108
L $200 Over 68.5 rushing yards by Jamaal Charles -108
L $75 under 72.5 passing yards by Navy -104 (Navy)
L $75 under 215.5 passing yards by Will Proctor -108
L $75 Over 230.5 rushing yards by Clemson -108


GOOD LUCK!!!
​
:smiley_acbe:

​
 
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Early Thoughts...

1/8 Florida vs Ohio State -7.5: At some point I'm going to take Florida. Hopefully it gets back up to the 8 it was earlier today, but I didn't want to tie my money up this soon with Pinnacle, and my local doesn't have lines yet.

1/7 Ohio vs Southern Mississippi -7: This is another line I think that's a bit off on the favorite. I'll more than likely take the dog in this contest especially if JumpOnBoard leans towards them.

1/6 Western Michigan vs Cincinnati -8.5: This is another game where I like the dog. Western Michigan has been a good team all season and Cincy is a team that plays to their opponents. Also think things will be a big "off" with their offensive coordinator taking over coaching duties and not being offered the job.

1/3 Notre Dame vs LSU -8.5: As long as LSU stays under 10 and I'm sure it will with all the Notre Dame faithful out there, I'll be taking LSU. I'm assuming they'll give a real pounding to Notre Dame as the speed and awesome defense is something they're not use to playing all of the service academies.

1/2 Wake Forest vs Louisville -9.5: This looks to be one of those big BCS mismatches. Louisvilles offense should be good to go and Brohm should be healed that he can woop some serious ass. Louisville has a bunch to prove in this game and they could very easily finish the year as the #3 or so team in the polls.

1/1 Nebraska vs Auburn -3: I really think Auburn could put one hell of a hurting on the Cornhuskers, but for the guys who know the SEC the best I need to ask if Auburn has given up on their year...

1/1 Penn State vs Tennessee -6: Penn State is not a very good football team. Defense isn't too bad, bu the offense is unreliable. Joe Paterno will be back in this game and he's already said it will not be his last game, so there won't be any "win one for Joe Pa" speeches. Tennesee I think has under performed all season and they should get things righted by beating up on one of the weaker sisters of the Big 10.

1/1 Wisconsin vs Arkansas -2: Absolutely kicking myself for not taking Wisconsin at +3.5 - I'm DEFINATELY going to be on Wisconsin to win this game as I think Wisconsin's team defense and ability to stop the run will cause McFadden and company a host of problems. Wisconsin's big offensive line and a healthy PJ Hill will have a lot of fun trying to run the ball down Arkansas's throat and controlling the clock. I'll be playing all of the bowl games for larger amounts, but if I could get Wisconsin again at +3.5 with my local, and not have my money tied up for the month I'd go around $1,000 on Wisconsin. If I can get it at +3, I'll go $500-$750+ and if its anything less I'll be taking Wisconsin money line for the positive juice for $500.

1/1 Georgia Tech vs West Virginia -7: I don't really have a good feel for these two teams. I kind of like the under 47 in this game at first glance and lean towards West Virginia right now, but I could see it being wise to take Georgia Tech at the + points. The hardest post new years day game for me to get a grip on.

1/1 Michigan -2.5 vs USC: I'll just keep waiting for the line to fall and I'll hit Michigan for a decent amount. It's the Rose Bowl, they'll be playing for a possible split National Championship, and USC doesn't play well at the Rose Bowl.

1/1 Boise State vs Oklahoma -8: I'll more than likely be taking Oklahoma in this one. Curious to see how the injuries work out and how this line moves. +10 I'll probably go Boise small, -7 and I'll be hitting Oklahoma harder.

I'll give thoughts on the rest of the games sometime on Monday.
 
Hey Fondy!

Nice job on a profitable 2006 season bro! :cheers:

I couldn't agree more on Florida. I'm going to pull the trigger on the Gators shortly.
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Fondy-Good luck with your picks. For what it's worth I see that Florida/Ohio st. game as being close. 8 points would be nice on that play.</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
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Fondybadger's - Tuesday 12/19 - Poinsettia Bowl

2006 College Football 344-322-16 +$2873

This should be a fun game to start the bowl season off with. Can't wait to see how I do on them all.

$350 TCU -12
$250 TCU 1H -6.5 -115
$100 TCU/NIU under 46.5
$50 TCU 1Q -3 +101
TCU is a much more balanced team that Northern Illinois. NIU starts and stops with the production from Garrett Wolfe. I believe that TCU's tough defense will eliminate the rest of the Huskies and the damage that Wolfe provides will be minimal. TCU can also run the ball and I'm confident in their passing attack.
PREDICTED SCORE: TCU 31 NIU 10

GOOD LUCK WITH THE BOWLS!!!
 
Agreed. <!--StartFragment -->
5_5_138.gif
 
Opposite you for the game side and total, but good health buddy! If anything, we agree on how many points TCU scores;-)
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Fondy-Congrats. on a great night.</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
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Damn, nice job bro..

$350 TCU -12
$250 TCU 1H -6.5 -115
$100 TCU/NIU under 46.5
$50 TCU 1Q -3 +101

You have a crystal ball for all that?
 
Should have taken TCU -20.5 +200 like i did fondy...just playin, very nice night. also hit the 1H -7
 
Fondybadger's Las Vegas Bowl - Oregon vs BYU

When I filled out my Confidence Pool, I made Oregon as a SU winner with 10 points on it. I'm regretting that right now. After getting into the game and looking at the numbers it's way too hard to support Oregon.

Key reasons why I like BYU
  • BYU QB John Beck - MWC Player of the Year - 2nd in the nation in passing efficiency (173.3 rating) - 319.1 ypg (4th in country) & 30 TD's - 7 conference player of the week awards
  • BYU RB Curtis Brown, All-MWC First Team, 55 catches for 511 yards and 3 TD's, 890 yards rushing for 5 TD's
  • BYU turnover margin is 4th out of 119
  • Oregon uncertainty at QB
  • Oregon being more one dimensional running the ball
  • Oregon turnover margin is 107th out of 119
  • BYU is sixth in the nation with a scoring average of just under 37 ppg
  • Oregon defense ranked 84th in the nation with 25.6 ppg allowed
PLAYS
$200 BYU -3 -105
$100 BYU 1H ML -130
$25 BYU 1Q -0.5 +119

With regards to a total I'm kind of flip flopping a bit. I see BYU putting up about 3 TD's in the first half, so I think what I'm going to do is focus on the team totals in this one with smaller plays on half/game totals.

$200 BYU Over 32.5
$75 BYU/Oregon Over 62
$50 BYU/Oregon 1H Over 30.5
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Great writeup as usual fondy, good luck with your picks, bro!</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
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You flip fopped on the total cuz of my drunk ass!!! I get no respect...... I'm kidding. You know I'm sticking to my guns on Oregon so i wish you health. Over better hit tho or I feel like like an idiot.
 
Marcus000 said:
You flip fopped on the total cuz of my drunk ass!!! I get no respect...... I'm kidding. You know I'm sticking to my guns on Oregon so i wish you health. Over better hit tho or I feel like like an idiot.
Click to expand...

I laid off of the Oregon TT under 29.5 because of your drunk ass... want to think about it some more...
 
Fondybadger said:
When I filled out my Confidence Pool, I made Oregon as a SU winner with 10 points on it. I'm regretting that right now. After getting into the game and looking at the numbers it's way too hard to support Oregon.

Key reasons why I like BYU
  • BYU QB John Beck - MWC Player of the Year - 2nd in the nation in passing efficiency (173.3 rating) - 319.1 ypg (4th in country) & 30 TD's - 7 conference player of the week awards
  • BYU RB Curtis Brown, All-MWC First Team, 55 catches for 511 yards and 3 TD's, 890 yards rushing for 5 TD's
  • BYU turnover margin is 4th out of 119
  • Oregon uncertainty at QB
  • Oregon being more one dimensional running the ball
  • Oregon turnover margin is 107th out of 119
  • BYU is sixth in the nation with a scoring average of just under 37 ppg
  • Oregon defense ranked 84th in the nation with 25.6 ppg allowed
PLAYS
$200 BYU -3 -105
$100 BYU 1H ML -130
$25 BYU 1Q -0.5 +119

With regards to a total I'm kind of flip flopping a bit. I see BYU putting up about 3 TD's in the first half, so I think what I'm going to do is focus on the team totals in this one with smaller plays on half/game totals.

$200 BYU Over 32.5
$75 BYU/Oregon Over 62
$50 BYU/Oregon 1H Over 30.5
Click to expand...

I must say that BYU is more one dimensional than Oregon is Fondy. Here's why.

Oregon has out-rushed its opponents by 474 yds and has 2,270 yds rushing. Passing they have out-gained the opponent by 1,124 yds and have 2967 passing yds. BYU has rushed for 1,679 this season and only out-gained the opponents by 290 yds. Passing is their ONE dimension. They have 3824 passing yds and out gained the opponents 1,324 yds in the air.

When you see that OREGON HAS 5237 YDS THE BALANCE IS REAL GOOD. A separation of only 500 yds.

BYU had 5503 yds, but the large imbalance is mostly passing. The separation is 2100. Compare the strenth of the opponents, and the Ducks have a much more impressive season with better balance. BYU IS the most ONE-Dimensional team tonight.

You may have been right on your first SU winner choice with Oregon, as I had BYU winning SU in the Bowl pool. But I picked all the contests without capping them in detail. Funny how we bet the opposite of what we picked. I still have room to win both, as BYU could win SU and not cover. But - Id rather win my bet, then my guess at the pool.:shake:
 
Mags said:
I like BYU as well but I'm concerned with the line movement.
Click to expand...

Vanzack made a very good point with regards to that. Most of the initial line movement was when the limits were at 2k. Two 2k bets would move the line .5 points... So the line movement shouldn't be too worrisome... I'm basing that on his saying, as I don't really follow that stuff.
 
G-Man - Some great points, but this is why I disagree. I compare BYU a lot to a Rams type of offense and their RB is a Faulk style with having 55 catches. Sure a lot of the yards are passing, but how many of them came on dump offs and screens? Short yard passing is as good as a run in my book.
 
Fondybadger said:
G-Man - Some great points, but this is why I disagree. I compare BYU a lot to a Rams type of offense and their RB is a Faulk style with having 55 catches. Sure a lot of the yards are passing, but how many of them came on dump offs and screens? Short yard passing is as good as a run in my book.
Click to expand...

YES short yard passing is as good. But when you play 7 or 8 in the box and dedicate defensive players to the running backs on screens, then youre prone to get shut down and those screens can be stopped. Down field passing will win this game or the defense against it IMO. Good health to you tonight.:shake:
 
G-Man said:
YES short yard passing is as good. But when you play 7 or 8 in the box and dedicate defensive players to the running backs on screens, then youre prone to get shut down and those screens can be stopped. Down field passing will win this game or the defense against it IMO. Good health to you tonight.:shake:
Click to expand...

Should be a good one. Thanks for the discussion and the opposite view points.
 
GL fondy im on it with you. We also got the biggest advantage in gambling. The team we bet against has a got a Leaf starting as their QB. I feel more confident about this game when i know hes in there. Im scared of Dixon a little bit, i really dont know why i think just cause of his running ability but as long as Leaf is in there we should be good
 
I'm on it as well Fondy. On top of BYU have more talent/weapons,
add the facts that they are more motivated and disciplined.
Also like the Team Total Over in both 1H & Game.
Have not played the Team Totals but like them a bunch.

Good Luck

Let's Get Some!!!!
 
Fondybadger's New Orleans Bowl Friday (added 2H)

First two bowl games..... 7-3 +$1088

$300 Rice -4 -115
$150 Rice 1H -3 +100
$200 Rice/Troy under 54 +107
$75 Rice/Troy 1H under 24.5 +113
$25 Rice/Troy 1Q under 10.5 -125

Prop Leans:
Rice RB Quinton Smith Under 88.5 rushing yards -108
All Rice quarterbacks over 229.5 passing yards -108

WHY I LIKE RICE
  • Troy's awful non-conference play (Rice though isn't much better)
  • Rice WR Jarrett Dillard ability to take over a game
  • Rice's 31 sacks this season and 28 turnovers forced
  • Troy rushes for 126.9 ypg, while collecting just 3.8 ypc (won't exploit Rice's defensive rushing deficiency)
  • Troy's QB Omar Haugabook threw 17 scores against 16 interceptions this season
  • Troy only forced 19 turnovers on the season
I personally think this is going to be a lower scoring snooze fest and that Rice will win it with a few big plays at the hand of Dillard and whoever is at QB. I capped the game as if Rice QB Chase Clement will play. Clement has 21 td's and 5 interceptions on the season. Great numbers, especially when he's going against a team that doesn't create a lot of turnovers. Both teams running backs are dependable, but neither are that flashy and I don't expect huge numbers. With as bad as both teams were out of conference, it is hard to get a feel for what to expect in this game. Rice has a few more "special" players than Troy, played in a tougher conference, and has the much better offense. There are a few reasons to stop and think though about this game. Rice has allowed 46 touchdowns this season (28 passing &18 rushing) and permitted their opponents to convert 40 percent of their third down attempts. That type of number is a bit shocking for a 7-5 team. One other thing I noticed when looking at Rice's schedule is that they were favored in exactly one game this season. One game!!! You can look at that two ways, either they haven't gotten a whole lot of respect or they've played over their head. You decide on that.

*** I'm not a big trend person, but I noticed this interesting number. "The betting public is correct when moving the total in RICE games 9.1% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (2-20)" Well folks the number has climbed from 51 to 54 points. I already had the total locked in when I saw this but it definately gave me a bit more confidence on it.
​
 
Riding with you here, got Rice -5 & Under 55 and pretty much agree with everything you said...

Lets get this! :cheers:
 
Been working a ton lately, I thought I saw something where Rice's QB is/might be out. Is this true? Cant do a whole lot of searching here at work.
 
mutosufan said:
Been working a ton lately, I thought I saw something where Rice's QB is/might be out. Is this true? Cant do a whole lot of searching here at work.
Click to expand...

You're correct. Chase Clement is listed as questionable for the game with a broken collarbone. He's been cleared to play, but remains on the injury list. As I said I capped the game with the assumption that he is playing. If he doesn't play I'd have reversed amounts with my ATS play and Total play, thus going more on the under then Rice.
 
PapaJohns.com Bowl Saturday 1pm Eastern

$175 South Florida -4.5
$100 USF/EC under 43
$50 USF/EC 1H under 21.5
$25 USF/EC 1Q under 7.5
Don't have the best feel on this game, but I've been more impressed this season with how South Florida stepped up in "unwinnable games" and won or played very well. They have the better offense and QB Grothe will take over the game on the air and on the ground.

Predicted Score: USF 23 - 6
 
The Only Rice I like is... Pork Fried Rice. I bet we both agree on that. hahah

Good health to you Fond...:shake:
 
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