Fondybadger's 2006-2007 College Football Bowls

Damn UCLA was a piece of crap last night... I'll have todays' plays up in a bit, just taking care of the GT CBB game here in 30 minutes first.
 
Independence Bowl - Thursday 4:30 Eastern

$250 Oklahoma State -2.5
$100 OSU/Bama under 48
$75 OSU/Bama 1H under 24.5
$75 Okie State 1H -0.5
I like Okie State because of their balanced offense and the changover at Alabama. I know Alabama has a great defense, and I shouldn't be overlooking that, but the program is under too much change right now and I don't think they really care about this crap bowl.
 
$150 under 72.5 rushing yards by Dantrell Savage +122
$125 Over 70.5 rushing yards Kenneth Darby -152
$50 Over 179.5 Gross passing yards by all OSU QB's -124
$50 under 223.5 passing yards by J.P. Wilson +107
 
Holiday Bowl & Texas Bowl - Thursday 8:00pm

Holiday Bowl
$300 California -3
$100 Cal/A&M under 54
$50 California 1H ML -134
$50 Cal/A&M 1Q under 10 -110

Texas Bowl (WTF is the NFL Network doing?)
$500 Rutgers -7 -112
$225 Rutgers/KState over 44
$250 Rutgers 1H -4
$125 Rutgers/KState 1H Over 23 +109
$50 Rutgers/KState 1Q Over 9.5 -105

I'll have player props here shortly...
 
Against you in the Cal game.. imo it comes down to Longshore, if he is on point then you win, if he looks like he did the last 3 weeks (>50% & 5Int) than I win..

Good Health
 
Im a big fan of JP wilson.. and hes dreamy, my kind of man. Kid has a lot of talent and some descent wr's to throw too. Darby is a hell of a back, but the problem lies with the bama ol and the shady play callin. Good luck fondy
 
i got:
200 alabama +2
100 alabama under 48
200 alabama 1h +1/2
100 alabama under 1h 24

just don't see okies scoring and don't see okies D stepping up....just my thoughts BOL to all....
 
I think Bama should go after John Gruden. Anyway im really lookin fwd to seeing Desean Jackson tonight.. kid is amazing
 
Oh yeah.. that QB is gonna get some nice emails when he comes back to class..I can almost hear the groaning in the sportsbook

:moose:
 
ISU74 said:
Oh yeah.. that QB is gonna get some nice emails when he comes back to class..I can almost hear the groaning in the sportsbook
Click to expand...

I'm pissed off I lost money with that move, but I'm having a hard time being mad at the QB. He's a senior, they wanted to get a little used RB a TD, they're college kids playing on national television in a bowl game... In that situation, I know I wouldn't want to take a knee. I know there's the whole sportsmanship thing, but if you have backups in there, let the kids play.
 
Yeah, in basketball let people play. Football is a totally different sport last 30 seconds you take the knee. You won the game. Not too mention, the best play in football is "victory" - take a knee. Every college in america practices that on Thursday and Friday pregame practices.
 
fairmountbull said:
what are your leans for Friday Fondy!!???
Click to expand...

Friday Leans
- All 5 faves, pounded Texas Tech - may not play Oregon State (need to spend more time with it) or Maryland (need to see Timh's thoughts)... Definately be on Clemson and South Carolina though... As far as totals, going to take TT/Minny over 65 smaller and the rest I still need to decided on. I'll probably have a few threads up on the games in the few hours...

Not a bad Thursday either...
11-6 +$1240
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
Against you in the Cal game.. imo it comes down to Longshore, if he is on point then you win, if he looks like he did the last 3 weeks (>50% & 5Int) than I win..

Good Health
Click to expand...

You got me here, Cal was too damn fast tonight..

GL tomorrow, seems we are both on SC:cheers:
 
Fondybadger's - Insight & Champs Sports Bowls - Largest CFB play this season

$1250 Texas Tech -6.5 -115
$300 Texas Tech 1H -3 -125 (rather pay the 8 cents and get the hook)
$200 Texas Tech/Minnesota Over 65
$150 Texas Tech/Minnesota 1H Over OVER 33.5 +106 (Pinny)
$250 Texas Tech Team Total OVER 36.5 -107
WHY I LIKE TEXAS TECH
​
  • Texas Tech averages 31.5 ppg
  • Texas Tech averages 363.2 ypg passing for 440.5 total ypg.
  • TT QB Graham Harrell completed 67% of his passes for 4,110 yards and 36 TD's and 10 interceptions.
  • 7 TT players had 20 or more catches and 9 players had one or more TD catch.
  • TT RB Shannon Woods had 817 yards and 7 TD's, but averaged 6.1 ypc which I think is the most telling stat.
  • TT defense only allowed 3.8 ypc, although they allowed almost 150 ypg rushing - that's skewed as teams tried rushing alot to control clock.
  • TT defense only allowed 175.7 ypg passing.
  • Keyunta Dawson & Brock Stratton will light things up against Minny defense.
  • Minnesota averaged 27.9 ppg with 368.6 total ypg.
  • Minny RB Amir Pinnix had 1,093 yards and 9 TD's on the year.
  • Minny QB Brian Cupito completed 59.5% of his passes for 2,556 yards and 19 TD's and 10 int.
  • Minnesota defense allowed 24.5 ppg and an ungodly 416.2 total ypg
  • Minny defense can't stop the run or the pass (162.8 ypg rushing and 253.5 ypg passing allowed).
  • Minnesota defense allowed a 47% conversion rate on 3rd down
  • Minnesota hasn't been use to practicing in weather above 40 degrees outside, now they're in the 70's
  • This quote I read from a Minny newspaper article "(Minnesota Coach Glen) Mason was pleased with Tuesday's practice despite his players spending much of Monday lounging by the pool."
Also today I had a conversation with a CTG member that I trust unconditionally with regards to Minnesota sports and his unpublished information and connections to players/coaches. Some nuggets from that conversation.
  • Steve Shidell - Minnesota's starting left tackle broke his leg on Saturday in Minnesota in their final practice. Matt DeGeest will take his place in the starting lineup, but more than likely at RT and Joe Ainslie will move from RT to LT. From my second hand knowledge the Minnesota coaches consider this a HUGE loss and they're worried about how this change will play out having two raw linemen starting. Here's an article about the injury and about possible lineup changes.http://www.startribune.com/512/story/899374.html
  • A Minnesota offensive coach said that they are confident "they will score against TT, but that they didn't feel good about the possibility of stopping the TT air attack."
  • The coach went on to say, "TT's defense is a basic Y scheme that suits the Gophers zone blocking scheme to a T. If TT was to blitz more the MN o line would really struggle, but he said he doubts they'll blitz." Personally, I can wait to see how this plays out. Just need to find a place that has the NFL Network.
  • The CTG member was saying his general impression is that Minnesota expects a shootout (who doesn't though).
  • I was also told a prominent Minnesota offensive player didn't even think they they'd be able to win. I think this might be a good look into the mindset. Shouldn't really effect your capping of the game, but I found it interesting.
  • This CTG member also asked one of the Minny coaches if he thought they would win, and said "The look (he) gave me wasn't real positive when I asked if he liked MN's chances."
So what does all this mean? Well most of what was told to me tonight just reinforced my own opinions about the game and made me feel a lot more confident with the play. Texas Tech will be able to pass all over the place on Minnesota. As I discussed with others today, the over will depend on if those are TD's or FG's. My belief is that they'll be TD's. With regards to the total, Texas Tech has horrible numbers in red zone defense, so you can expect Minnesota to put up some points as well. We all know that Minnesota has one of the worst pass defenses in the country and Texas Tech is one of the best passing offenses. Texas Tech defense overall is still better than Minnesota's and I trust TT will be able to score, more than I trust Cupito and the rest of Minnesota's offense. With regards to player props, I'm taking the over on all of them, regardless what they're set... lol - I'm also betting a lot more on this game as I took in about $1200 on Thursday's Bowl games, and it allows me a bit more wiggle room.

Predicted Final Score
Texas Tech 52 Minnesota 27
 
Fondy go get it...That a big bet for you, dont know much about these teams so I may have to tail you.....Ummm roast beeeefffff.....
 
Fondybadger's - Music, Sun, & Liberty Bowls (Added Music 2H)

$175 Clemson -10 -105
$75 Clemson 1H -6
I initially really liked Clemson in this game, but on Thursday everyone I tended to talk to did their best to talk me off of the game. I decided I still wanted to play it, but not for as much as I was going to. The main reason I like Clemson is because of the differences in defense. Kentucky is 118th in pass defense and 111th in run defense. Clemson is 20th in rushing defense, 12th in total defense, 4th in pass efficiency defense and most importantly 15th in scoring defense. The other thing that stood out to me was Kentucky's play away from home as you can see from the chart below that they lost by an average of 20+. I think a lot of that has to do with the young team that Kentucky has. Don't really have a strong thought on the total.

<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><td class="matchupHeader" colspan="15">KENTUCKY - Current Season Performance</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupSubHeader"> </td><td class="matchupSubHeader" colspan="2">Straight Up</td><td class="matchupSubHeader" colspan="2">Against Spread</td><td class="matchupSubHeader" colspan="5">Team</td><td class="matchupSubHeader" colspan="5">Opponent</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupSubHeader"> </td><td class="matchupSubHeader">W-L</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Units</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">W-L</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">O-U</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Score</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Half</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Yards</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">YPP</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">TO</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Score</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Half</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Yards</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">YPP</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">TO</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells">All Games</td><td class="matchupCells">7-5</td><td class="matchupCells">+5.1</td><td class="matchupCells">6-5</td><td class="matchupCells">5-6</td><td class="matchupCells">26.6</td><td class="matchupCells">14.2</td><td class="matchupCells">372.5</td><td class="matchupCells">(5.7)</td><td class="good">1.2</td><td class="matchupCells">29.1</td><td class="matchupCells">14.7</td><td class="bad">457.7</td><td class="bad">(6.7)</td><td class="matchupCells">2.3</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells">Road Games</td><td class="matchupCells">1-4</td><td class="matchupCells">0</td><td class="matchupCells">3-2</td><td class="matchupCells">2-3</td><td class="bad">16.2</td><td class="matchupCells">9.4</td><td class="matchupCells">307.2</td><td class="matchupCells">(5)</td><td class="good">0.8</td><td class="bad">36.4</td><td class="bad">19.0</td><td class="bad">487.0</td><td class="bad">(6.9)</td><td class="bad">1.4</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells">Last 3 Games</td><td class="matchupCells">2-1</td><td class="matchupCells">+1</td><td class="matchupCells">2-1</td><td class="matchupCells">2-1</td><td class="matchupCells">30.7</td><td class="good">16.7</td><td class="good">488.0</td><td class="good">(6.9)</td><td class="good">0.7</td><td class="matchupCells">27.7</td><td class="matchupCells">12.3</td><td class="bad">486.0</td><td class="bad">(6.9)</td><td class="matchupCells">2.0</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells">Grass Games</td><td class="matchupCells">7-5</td><td class="matchupCells">+5.1</td><td class="matchupCells">6-5</td><td class="matchupCells">5-6</td><td class="matchupCells">26.6</td><td class="matchupCells">14.2</td><td class="matchupCells">372.5</td><td class="matchupCells">(5.7)</td><td class="good">1.2</td><td class="matchupCells">29.1</td><td class="matchupCells">14.7</td><td class="bad">457.7</td><td class="bad">(6.7)</td><td class="matchupCells">2.3</td></tr></tbody> </table>
 
Player Props
$100 Over 233.5 passing yards by Andre Woodson -131
$75 under 215.5 passing yards by Will Proctor -108
$125 under 85.5 rushing yards by Rafael Little -108
$75 Over 230.5 rushing yards by Clemson -108

Thought this submitted right after I posted my game plays, but I guess it was another server error. Can't wait until next week when we'll have a more reliable server.
 
I plan on taking Oregon State for a smaller amount today. I'm waiting to see how the line moves throughout the afternoon. I like Oregon State because I feel they've shown the most against "bigger" competition and they have an actual running game.

$75 Oregon State/Missouri 1H under 26.5
$100 Oregon State/Missouri under 52.5
$50 Over 65.5 rushing yards by Tony Temple -108
-Chase Daniels prop I lean on the under 272.5
$200 Over 197.5 passing yards by Matt Moore -108
-Yvenson Bernard prop I lean over 100.5
 
Fondy Lets talk about this Clemson game, I tend to lean the same way as you do, Towards Clemson. Sure they had a rough stretch where they didnt play up to expectations but isnt this the same team that put a hurting on The Yellow jackets. They did lose to The Spurrier's but they were out coached. I cant really see Kentucky slowing them down on the ground, that man is a beast. When Kentucky was hanging tough against Tenn they were without some of their key players. I dont think that kentucky can continue to make plays throughout the entire ball game......Kentucky is a very popular dog and that scares me a lillte, the spread is at -10 for a reason, right?
 
Fondy i love ur two passing props.. Proctor is the worst qb in d1 .. as long as theres no 90 yard screen passes thats golden. Woodson should throw for 350+ the guy is the real deal
 
Troutman said:
Fondy Lets talk about this Clemson game, I tend to lean the same way as you do, Towards Clemson. Sure they had a rough stretch where they didnt play up to expectations but isnt this the same team that put a hurting on The Yellow jackets. They did lose to The Spurrier's but they were out coached. I cant really see Kentucky slowing them down on the ground, that man is a beast. When Kentucky was hanging tough against Tenn they were without some of their key players. I dont think that kentucky can continue to make plays throughout the entire ball game......Kentucky is a very popular dog and that scares me a lillte, the spread is at -10 for a reason, right?
Click to expand...

Kentucky will have a very hard time slowing Clemson down on the ground imo. My biggest argument for people who are on Kentucky because of how they performed against Tenny is that Tenny played down to them. Their bowl position was pretty much locked in and the Volunteers just didn't care about the game. Kentucky will need to air it out in this game and Clemson's defense should be able to control things for the most part, hopefully with some timely interceptions.
 
Kentucky is the real deal on offense. I think Woodson is an nfl qb. Clemson is vastly overrated and i have been saying it all year. Besides blowing out fl atlantic and unc, what have they done? Their offense is stagnent.. Im not bettin the kentucky ml but i wouldnt be shocked to see them upset clemson here.. One team hasnt been to a bowl in a while.. one team tanked a season with high hopes. I think this will be as exciting as a game as we have
 
abcs said:
Kentucky is the real deal on offense. I think Woodson is an nfl qb. Clemson is vastly overrated and i have been saying it all year. Besides blowing out fl atlantic and unc, what have they done? Their offense is stagnent.. Im not bettin the kentucky ml but i wouldnt be shocked to see them upset clemson here.. One team hasnt been to a bowl in a while.. one team tanked a season with high hopes. I think this will be as exciting as a game as we have
Click to expand...

Well Clemson is one of my lowest bet bowl games so far this season...
 
Fondy...here is my biggest knock on Clemson. Since Roman Fry went out on 10/21 w/ a torn ACL look at what Clemson has produced on Offense.

7 pts vs VaTech - 80 rushing yards
12 pts vs Maryland - 143 rushing yards - 3.5yrds/carry
20pts vs NCState - 223 rushing - 5.7y/c
28pts vs SCar - 181 yards - 5.5y/c

I'm with you that Kentucky won't be able to stop the run, but...never mind...already talked myself back on Clemson!! Those 4 games are against very quality teams...I know Kentucky will score but will it be enough. This could be like the Clemson/NoCarolina game w/ more score for Kent. 45-20??
 
Clemsons YPC is fools gold.. check the drives. Theyll have one or two 50 yard runs.. by spiller then the rest will be 2 yards, But good luck fondy!
 
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