Fondybadger's 2006-2007 College Football Bowls

Hawaii Bowl - Sunday

Game Plays
$300 Hawaii -7
$150 Hawaii 1H -4
$50 Hawaii 1Q -0.5 -115

Total Plays
$100 Hawaii/ASU over 71.5
$50 Hawaii/ASU 1H over 35

Prop
$100 Over 59.5 rushing yards by Hawaii RB Nate Ilaoa -124

Why I Like Hawaii
  • Hawaii is playing on their home field
  • 7-1 at Aloha Stadium in 2006, suffered it's only loss at home versus Oregon State in the regular-season finale on December 2 by a final of 35-32.
  • ASU fired coach Dirk Koetter, but will be on sidelines for this game (lame duck coach)
  • Not a fan of of ASU QB Rudy Carpenter, who completed 55.9% of his attempts for 194.3 ypg and 21 TDs - picked off 14 times.
  • ASU TE Zach Miller had 49 receptions for 481 yards and four touchdowns (2nd team AA), but there is no other solid receiving option.
  • Hawaii QB Colt Brennan
  • Hawaii RB Nate Ilaoa and his 893 yards and 13 touchdowns.
  • Hawaii is highest scoring program in all of football at 47.3 ppg.
 
Think Hawaii rolls over these lame duck mofos who have been partying on the island instead of really caring about this one. Colt makes a statement after playing in 30+mph winds in his only other nationally televised game of the year. Hawaii -6.5 for a dime for me. GL fondy
 
LOVE THAT PROP.. Nate runs for 80+ 2nite.

Got -7 on the game, lets get this shit:cheers:
 
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Only scary thing about the IIaoa prop is that they give him alot of shovel passes which are pretty much like runs but count as passes.

I like:

Zach Miller OVER 48.5 yards
Zach Miller OVER 4 receptions
Ryan Torian OVER 97.5 yards

They encourage you to run-and-shoot with them like the Phoenix Suns," Koetter said. "If you can't run-and-shoot with them and you're a half-court offense, you better not go fast break with them."
The Sun Devils (7-5, 4-5 Pac-10) will try to establish the run, control the ball and eat up clock Sunday when they face the Warriors (10-3, 7-1 Western Athletic Conference) in the Hawaii Bowl.
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Ryan Torain, who has rushed for 1,119 yards and six TDs, and tight end Zach Miller, who leads Sun Devils with 49 catches and four TDs, should find success against Hawaii's defense, known to give up big plays and have trouble against tight ends.
"I'm hoping for a big game and finish the season off right," Miller said.
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Anyone know how good Hawaii's Rush D is????
 
Thanks, but not sure how Miller (their leading receiver) only has 3 yards receiving....makes a specatular 31 yard TD that is nullified, but they never go back to him
 
I feel as if the bowl season has gone pretty well for me from a capping standpoint. I've been confident when capping games and I feel as if I'm going to hit everything. Only problem is I'm not seeing the results. A big reason why I'm under the impression I've been doing so well is because I've gone 5-1 ATS in the seven bowl games so far (didn't play one). So when you're on the right side at the end it makes it seem that much better. From a money management standpoint if I have $50 or $75 on a play that's just an "action" play and I don't feel as confident with it. Well those "action" plays are killing me. I'm 1-9 on my $25, $50, and $75 plays this bowl season (12-7 on $100 plays and more). Looking back all season in football my smaller plays absolutely kill my record and eat away at my bankroll. The small action losses really have started to add up, so if you start seeing some $5 and $10 plays from me on 1Q and that you know why, lol...
 
Fondybadger's - Tuesday Motor City Bowl

Sides
$400 Central Michigan -7 -113
$150 Central Michigan -4 -110

Player Props
$150 Over 50.5 rushing yards by Ontario Sneed -111
$75 Over 231.5 passing yards by Dan LeFevour -108
$75 under 72.5 rushing yards by Eugene Gross -108

Reasons Why I like Central Michigan
  • MTSU poor offense. They scored 23.5 ppg on 283 total ypg (137 rushing ypg & 145.7 passing ypg).
  • MTSU only had one receiver with more than 20 catches on the season
  • MTSU allowing 207 passing ypg.
  • CMU averaged 29.6 ppg, while producing 380.2 total ypg.
  • CMU's passing attack. QB Dan LeFevour completed 63.8% of his passes for 2,869 yards and 25 touchdowns with 10 interceptions.
  • CMU's two solid WR's in Bryan Anderson and Damien Linson. Anderson had 67 catches for 816 yards and 5 Td's. Linson had 54 receptions for 799 yards and 5 TD's.
  • CMU held its competition to 22.9 ppg on the season
  • CMU's playmakers at linebacker
  • CMU familiar playing at Ford Field in Michigan
  • One thing I don't like is MTSU forcing 27 turnovers and 33 sacks in their 12 games this year.
I have a feeling that CMU's offense is going to be able to pass all over MTSU in this game and MTSU will get out of their game plan trying to keep up. Too much offensive weapons for CMU and pretty equal defenses. I don't have a real good feel for the total on this game. I see something along the lines of a 34-10 type final, so I lean towards the under I guess... No play as of now though.
 
Where did you see those props?

I only see LeFevour 238.5 yards on greek....I agree with all of them though
 
metsrp86 said:
Where did you see those props?

I only see LeFevour 238.5 yards on greek....I agree with all of them though

Hit them all at Pinnacle, although the juice has really changed...

231.5 passing yards by Dan LeFevour
Over -138
under +122

72.5 rushing yards by Eugene Gross
under -121
Over +105

50.5 rushing yards by Ontario Sneed
Over -123
under +107
 
The other is Clint Mark's passing yards over/under 150.5

I may hit that as well as I think he'll definately get that late in the game trying to play catch up. Might be the best one to take actually... both are at -108
 
Ahh i see them, there was no prop link next to game for some reason, had to use the main betting menu

Juice is much higher now though...
 
I did see that one too....would seem to make sense....though he hasnt gone over that number in his last 4 games, and sometimes well under.

Would still lean over 150.5, hopefully CMU blows them out
 
GL Fondbond...and yeah, I wouldn't play the total either as a late TD is likely to f someone over....if you're looking for an over/under on the game I'd say play 1st half.....................cha chang ching
 
GL, got CMU -8, I lean under as well but its hard for me to pull the trigger after getting beat in that Troy game on the Under...
 
On this one too, looking more & more like a winner as it's good to be in good company.

See you at the window Fondy.
 
Fondy,

I had a similar problem during the regular season... When games were on from tues-fri, I usually got hammered and dug a hole for Saturday, where I usually did alright. The small action plays killed my bankroll though, I will be looking to change that shit next yr
 
Any concern that the line dropped from -11 with the vast majority on CMU? I like CMU too but don't understand the line movement?
 
I don't pay attention to line movements but heres some food for thought..

Hawaii opened at -10 dropped to -7 and they covered..
BYU was -6, dropped to -3.5 and they covered..
Utah was -3.5 dropped to -1 and they covered..
 
HoleInPocket said:
Any concern that the line dropped from -11 with the vast majority on CMU? I like CMU too but don't understand the line movement?

Like ETG said, I tend to just look at the line and what it is now, I'm not concerned about line moves or this or that. You start doing that imo you'll be second guessing yourself way too much.
 
HoleInPocket said:
Any concern that the line dropped from -11 with the vast majority on CMU? I like CMU too but don't understand the line movement?

I totally agree Fondy that line movement plays a factor into too many peoples plays. At 8 I think you see tremendous value with the home team laying a little more than a TD and if it gets down to 7 the only side is CMU in this one. Everybody always talks about reverse line movement and blah blah blah....Well ever think this may be the only Vegas can get a few more people to bite on MTSU is to push the line the other way. Its possible because for the most part 11 and 12 are dead numbers so in order for this to have any significant movement the other way it would have to get to 13 or 14.... Just think people read too much into line movement sometimes and public percentages and that gets them on the wrong side of the game. MTSU has beaten Ark. St., FIU, FAU, Lafayette, Monroe, North Texas and Tennessee tech....Almost a bowl team by default where as CMU played a strong non conference schedule against Mich, Ky, BC and in conference dominated the majority of their games. Lets cash with the Chippewas tonight Fondy! GL:drink:
 
Sides Recap 2-0 +$550
W $400 Central Michigan -7 -113
W $150 Central Michigan -4 -110

Player Props Recap 1-2 -$172
L $150 Over 50.5 rushing yards by Ontario Sneed -111
L $75 Over 231.5 passing yards by Dan LeFevour -108
W $75 under 72.5 rushing yards by Eugene Gross -108
 
Nice start fondy. The forum has been crazy with the number of posters that have won so far this bowl season. Keep up the great work the rest of the way. I'm keeping my eye on you in cbb as well!
 
Fondybadger's - Wednesday Emerald Bowl (Added 2H Plays)

Game Plays
$250 UCLA -3
$75 UCLA 1H ML -143

Prop Plays
$200 Over 71.5 net rushing yards by FSU -108
$200 Over 96.5 net rushing yards by UCLA -108

Reason Why I Like UCLA

  • FSU's questions at QB
  • FSU RB Antone Smith dislocated elbow (1/2 of their rushing attack)
  • FSU's inability to create turnovers
  • UCLA's RB Chris Markey dual threat out of the backfield (almost 1000 yard rusher & leading receiver)
  • UCLA's ability to create turnovers
  • UCLA's homefield advantage playing in Californina
Not a whole lot stands out to me in this game, except my belief that UCLA will win.


Reason for my Two Props


<table class="datatable" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><th class="header1" align="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="144">Teams</th><th class="header1" align="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="30">Line</th><th class="header1" align="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="60">PF/PA</th><th class="header1" align="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="35">SU</th><th class="header1" align="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="40">ATS</th><th class="header1" align="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="40">O/U/P</th><th class="header1" align="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="37">RY</th><th class="header1" align="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="37">PY</th><th class="header1" align="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="37">TY</th><th class="header1" align="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="37">RY</th><th class="header1" align="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="37">PY</th><th class="header1" align="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="37">TY</th></tr><tr class="cell1"> <td align="left">403: FLORIDA ST
404: UCLA</td> <td align="right">40.0
-3.5</td> <td align="right">25.1 / 19.3
22.7 / 17.9</td> <td align="right">6-6
7-5</td> <td align="right">5-7-0
8-3-1</td> <td align="right">6-5-1
2-10-0</td> <td align="right">95.8
124.4</td> <td align="right">226.2
197.0</td> <td align="right">322.0
321.4</td> <td align="right">84.1
89.9</td> <td align="right">194.8
214.9</td> <td align="right">278.9
304.8</td></tr></tbody> </table>
Both teams rush for over what the prop is set at on average and the defensive numbers are going pretty close to what they're set at. My biggest belief is that both teams will try to control the clock by keeping the ball on the ground, especially in the beganning of the game. Worst case I see the two props splitting (as hopefully when UCLA is ahead towards the end they'll run the ball), so it's like a $16 bet to win $400.
 
Tonight's game is definitely a tough one to get a read on, as I just can't get a feel for it. Decided to sit it out, but hope UCLA hits for ya.
 
Great logic Fondy...I'm on the other side, but BOL. I do think the first half will be a snoozer though...U20 for the 1st half is my other play for tonight
 
I dont see how FSU will score. If they stick with the same type of offensive game plan, they will struggle to move the ball. Smith and booker were both the top rbs comin out of hs, but neither has lived up to the hype behind the shitty OL. That being said its not like UCLA is an offensive juggernaut. I mean they didnt do squat against usc except for 2 drives. UCLA has been one of the hottest teams in the country and return a ton of players for next year, so i do see them wantin this game more. If FSU falls behind early they will crumble.
 
UCLA hoping to show it has a finishing kick

After beating USC and compiling a win streak, the Bruins can set the tone for next season with a victory over Florida State.
By Lonnie White, Times Staff Writer
December 27, 2006

Cautious
click to enlarge



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SAN FRANCISCO — Less than four weeks after UCLA's biggest victory of the Coach Karl Dorrell era, the Bruins will get a chance to make a statement for next season with today's game against Florida State in the Emerald Bowl at AT&T Park.

A victory would give UCLA an 8-5 record and a four-game winning streak to finish the season. But more important, a win probably would land the Bruins a spot in the top 25 heading into the 2007 season.

"If we win this game, with a number of guys coming back next year, we should be looked upon favorably in the conference as being a factor next year," said Dorrell of the Bruins, who gained national attention with their upset win Dec. 2 over Rose Bowl-bound USC.

But a loss against the 6-6 Seminoles also would make a statement for the Bruins, who have struggled with consistency since Dorrell took over the program four years ago.

"If we lose this game, then the SC game meant nothing," UCLA junior middle linebacker Christian Taylor said. "To me, that's the biggest thing. We've won our last few games, but if we lose our last game of the season, we're not going in the right direction heading into the off-season.

"It can be a wake-up call, but it's not what you want. It's not good for anything…. It's not good for notoriety. It's not good for preseason rankings. It's not good for recruiting. It's not good for the overall mentality of your program."

Since defeating USC, Dorrell has worked to make sure that the Bruins don't take the Seminoles lightly because of their .500 record.

"This is a really good 6-6 football team that we're playing," said Dorrell, who coached the Bruins to a victory over Northwestern in the Sun Bowl last year. "I know that they are going to be excited about doing something special for themselves to help catapult them for next year as well."

Tonight's game is expected to be a battle between two of the toughest defenses in the country.

Spearheaded by linebackers Buster Davis and Lawrence Timmons, Florida State led the nation in tackles for loss and limited opponents to 278.9 yards a game.

"They play extremely hard and extremely fast on every play," UCLA quarterback Patrick Cowan said of the Seminoles defense.

"They do a lot of different things that could give us problems. We expect them to be ready to play because they are coming all the way out to the West Coast. They're not just here to show up."

Davis, a 5-foot-10, 240-pound senior middle linebacker, is the heart and soul of Florida State's defense. He leads the team in tackles with 102 and had at least six stops in every game this season. Davis also has five quarterback sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception for the Seminoles, who twice held opposing offenses to fewer than 185 yards in a game.

Timmons, a 6-3, 230-pound junior outside linebacker, leads Florida State with 11 tackles for loss and six passes broken up and is tied with Davis in sacks.

"They have a solid defense that carries their team, there's no doubt about that," running back Chris Markey said of the Seminoles, who forced 12 turnovers in their six victories this season but only three in their six losses.

UCLA also relies heavily on its defense. The Bruins are ranked third in the nation in tackles for loss and third-down conversions, and have given up only 24 touchdowns this season, compared with 48 last season.

Seven times this year, UCLA has held an opponent under 17 points seven times, and six times the Bruins have held a team to fewer than 265 yards in total offense.

"From what I've seen, they look as good as any defense that we've played this season," Florida State Coach Bobby Bowden said. "Their defense can play with anybody."

That was evident in UCLA's 13-9 victory over USC, which ended the Trojans' 63-game streak of scoring 20 or more points.

"That was a game that definitely got my attention," Florida State running back Lorenzo Booker said. "Everyone knows how potent USC's offense has been, and they just shut them down."

UCLA's defense is led by pass-rushing ends Justin Hickman and Bruce Davis, who are tied for second in the nation with 12 1/2 sacks each. They've been a dominant force, and they help make things easier for the rest of the defense.

Juniors Kevin Brown and Brigham Harwell are solid tackles, who team up with middle linebacker Taylor to lead the Bruins' defense against the run, which ranks No. 1 in the Pacific 10 Conference at 89.9 yards a game.

"We know that this is going to be a game probably decided by which defense plays better," Buster Davis said. "We know UCLA has a good defense, but we think that we're pretty good too. It's going to be a fun game to play."
:cheers:
 
Theres a lot of other articles on this game at the latimes if you want to read about the team heading into there fondy. I go there a lot since i like to keep up with the lakers and USC.. good to see a newspaper, with a solid sports section
 
Good shit Brian....thats kinda the read I got on them the last few weeks.

Good luck tonight Fondulous
 
$150 UCLA/FSU under 38.5
- I lean under, but if there weren't so many people I respect on it, I wouldn't be playing it. So you say its a coattail of a few other guys.

Best of luck...
 
Fondybadger said:
Prop Plays
$200 Over 71.5 net rushing yards by FSU -108
$200 Over 96.5 net rushing yards by UCLA -108

WOW did these lines move... anyone have any thoughts on if I should try to middle them?

FSU is at 82.5 yars now -103 for the under
UCLA is at 102.5 yards +104 for the under
 
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