WEEK 1

Hey BA, wanted to drop this in here in case you didn’t catch it in my thread.


MINNEAPOLIS --- North Carolina's starting quarterback Max Johnsonsuffered a broken femur in UNC's season-opening 19-17 win at Minnesota on Thursday night, multiple sources told Inside Carolina. Johnson underwent surgery Friday in Minneapolis, a source close to the program confirmed.

The injury will end the 2024 season for the graduate student who transferred to UNC in the offseason from Texas A&M. The team was informed of the Johnson news on Friday afternoon.
 
back later boys .......

tonite

Wisky live / 2H
Tree 2H - live?

* chose to pass on the bad number week 1 (mostly) - even tho it would/might have worked anyway (loved Ga Tech) - liked Tree at 10 / FAU at 14

Tonite - we have an eggzample of the famous BA handicapping angle......

"Fade the team that is already in school - playing a team not in school yet - especially when traveling across a few time zones"

WHY? - because even tho the number of (practices) are set - the number of HOURS you can work are not the same. TCU began class 8/26 - TREE 9/23.
>> so TREE has fewer distractions, and can put in more work - huge?, no, but is probably worth a point or two maybe - might show late in a game.

I've been checking this, ever since I lost a LARGE bet a few years back - LSU at Washington seems like. Tigers looked sluggish - Huskies fresh. Announcers : "well it makes sense - LSU in class / UW not for weeks". Plus travel / late at nite. "WHAT!!?".

Just like making INFORMED decisions, when risking hard earned cash.
 
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added as one unit play - at BM

BAMA -31'

Initially wanted to stay away - but this one involves 2 coaches with the perfect mindset in this spot. WKU HC doesn't want to get his team beat up here - just pick up the $2M check (or whatever) and get TF out - never covered getting 10+ (0-6). Bama HC KD? takes these games very seriously, and has covered every damn one of 'em - 11-0, or 11-1 maybe. I see a team ready to administer an ass whoopin' - and another ready to take one. PERFECT.
 
bookieassassin said:
back later boys .......

tonite

Wisky live / 2H
Tree 2H - live?

* chose to pass on the bad number week 1 (mostly) - even tho it would/might have worked anyway (loved Ga Tech) - liked Tree at 10 / FAU at 14

Tonite - we have an eggzample of the famous BA handicapping angle......

"Fade the team that is already in school - playing a team not in school yet - especially when traveling across a few time zones"

WHY? - because even tho the number of (practices) are set - the number of HOURS you can work are not the same. TCU began class 8/26 - TREE 9/23.
>> so TREE has fewer distractions, and can put in more work - huge?, no, but is probably worth a point or two maybe - might show late in a game.

I've been checking this, ever since I lost a LARGE bet a few years back - LSU at Washington seems like. Tigers looked sluggish - Huskies fresh. Announcers : "well it makes sense - LSU in class / UW not for weeks". Plus travel / late at nite. "WHAT!!?".

Just like making INFORMED decisions, when risking hard earned cash.
Click to expand...
I’ve played this angle in the past. Do you know of a site where you can easily access start dates? Last few years I’ve spent hours looking up individual colleges. Sometimes technology evades me, just checking in case you found a quicker way
 
gonna be slightly more aggressive here .....

adding Ga Southern +13'

>> - one unit - juiced slightly at LV

SO ....... with the Ducks on deck - new HC (pretty much) is gonna travel to the Georgia heat/humidity and win by 14+? GS should be much tougher up front on D - and have the talent at RB/WR to move the ball on a shaky Boise D. Eagles are tough at home - should have a great crowd. Helton in his 3rd year - off disappointing season, should at least stay close here. >>> That bad ass Boise RB Jeanty takes over the game late - I'll look for a live play on Boise maybe

$$ forgot - as always - waiting for late Boise $ to push it closer to 14 ..... so locking in 1/2 unit at 13' - seeing if I can get a better deal closer to KO.
 
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On to week 2 boys ......

I'll see if I can get 3 for LSU - <17 for Fla St - if not I'll just play live/2H
>> way too much love for USC IMO - typically a terrible road team anyway (not much better under LR) - last 18 games getting points away? they have won once, covered 4 - the crazy drunken Cajuns should come into Vegas about 30K strong and kick the wine/cheese eaters ass - on and off the field .....:cool:
 
adding smaller

FSU -16

* market overreaction IMO, line was and probably still should be closer to 20 - a very tall order for that Bill O'Brien in his 1st game. LY's results confuse the issue (FSU won by 2 / -25) - but BC always overachieves in that Red Bandana game...... BC stays close for awhile probably, FSU pulls away - saving a bit for a live/2H play
 
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extra small / action play - might come out looking like an idiot yes

LSU/USC 1H under 34

* at BM - just think there is huge pressure on BOTH DC's to really start strong - to confuse and come after these new QB's on this massive stage .....I'll look for LSU, and/or OVER live/2H
 
bookieassassin said:
extra small / action play - might come out looking like an idiot yes

LSU/USC 1H under 34

* at BM - just think there is huge pressure on BOTH DC's to really start strong - to confuse and come after these new QB's on this massive stage .....I'll look for LSU, and/or OVER live/2H
Click to expand...
When do you hit the live over?
Do you do game total or 2H?
 
slapshot11 said:
When do you hit the live over?
Do you do game total or 2H?
Click to expand...

Don't AX me - I'm bad at it ha...

Tough call - eg now do I hit the LSU +2' at BM.....or wait for USC to score? Do I wait till halftime to get an even better deal? You probably play it small as you go - instead of waiting for the perfect number....

Best in game strategy for sure - is to plan it out beforehand - know how a team usually plays from half to half/ quarter to quarter - tough week 1.

Back later bol
 
if LSU is stopped here I'll wait till half time

edit: USC with the MO - gonna wait till halftime - let LSU staff make adjustments / USC to choke?

$ shoulda played LSU +2' / ML small
 
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do you ever look ahead to the next week on teams that will be home dogs in the coming week? Obviously these teams will be in a stressful situation ahead or the future home dog teams are bad. Either way, a Favorite in the current week that has a stressful week ahead are good ROI fades.
 
spottie2935 said:
do you ever look ahead to the next week on teams that will be home dogs in the coming week? Obviously these teams will be in a stressful situation ahead or the future home dog teams are bad. Either way, a Favorite in the current week that has a stressful week ahead are good ROI fades.
Click to expand...

I always look, not one, but 2-3 weeks ahead.....

Favorable/ unfavorable spots I've already done for each week - I already know (pretty much) what teams I'll play week 3
 
bookieassassin said:
I always look, not one, but 2-3 weeks ahead.....

Favorable/ unfavorable spots I've already done for each week - I already know (pretty much) what teams I'll play week 3
Click to expand...
I appreciate you for assisting me. Future Home dog teams as favorites are a tell and vice versa future away favorites can be quality dogs.
 
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