First bet with many more expected

Fairly simple bet on NY. Just average but Bauer pitching in NY when they saw him pitching in Cleveland on the 5th. No history of him on 3 on 2 very bad on 1 sample. I asume they intend to make it a bullpen game. Cleveland playing after being shutout is 1-5 this season
O'Nora the ump
No history with Servino
Limited history with Bauer of the uninteresting kind
very poor record for favorites in this range
 
Greinke in his last 3
Home vs Colorado 3,2 innings gives up 4 runs
AT KC on 6 4 innings 2 runs
Home vs Miami on 5 day rest gives up 8 runs.
New ump This actually might be the time to fade him.
Today will be his 5 game this year vs the Dodgers
 
NFL Browns seem fadeable
Splits very one sided Severino playing on best rest and at night against a team that with Klubber beat him 6-2 although after 5 the score was 2-1 Yanks
 
If Yanks win today they still have to win on the road. Cleveland is a really good team that will be hell warmed over to beat at home
 
It seriously bothers me to bet vs Greinke at home after 2 losses by Arizona but Darvish on 6+ career 13-6 ERA 2.99. Wiill decide late if I play it
 
To me Yu is the type of pitcher that can turn it up a notch by putting more pressure on his arm/elbow with his hard breaking stuff. Similar to what Tanaka did yesterday.

Both impending FAs pitching for potentially tens of millions of dollars based on their performances.
 
Cubs today. Arrieta has huge highs and lows. One of his highs this season is 6+,
4-1 1.72 ERA. That's pretty good matched with the better team. Thinking and probably adding RL. Roak has been a reasonable pitcher but is on the way down and on 5 4.69. He will try hard but I do not see it with him or the Nationals but it might get exciting. Ump is reasonable. Arrieta 4-1 but not a great ERA.
Can something go wrong. Sure. Its baseball but the Cubs are the better team
with the better pitcher and they have been a fine playoff team and the Nationals
are not.
 
Seemed odd. How about leaving in Greinke at about 105 pitches when they were only down 1 or sending in a pitcher on a suicide mission like Cleveland
 
Wednesday game??
Klubber got pounded last game. He was on 5 days rest.
Tomorrow he is on 4 day rest
on 4 days rest he is 11-3 1.67 ERA
On 5 days rest 3-1 3.64 ERA Not a decision just a fact
Let me add Sabathia is Not great on 4 day rest but Yanks are great on Wednesday so you have interesting trade offs.
 
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tuck321 said:
Cubs today. Arrieta has huge highs and lows. One of his highs this season is 6+,
4-1 1.72 ERA. That's pretty good matched with the better team. Thinking and probably adding RL. Roak has been a reasonable pitcher but is on the way down and on 5 4.69. He will try hard but I do not see it with him or the Nationals but it might get exciting. Ump is reasonable. Arrieta 4-1 but not a great ERA.
Can something go wrong. Sure. Its baseball but the Cubs are the better team
with the better pitcher and they have been a fine playoff team and the Nationals
are not.
Click to expand...

Agree with this....and Dusty always their with a bad decision to push a close game over to the cubbies side
 
Went over to a Cleveland Indian blog. They were stunned to lose badly due to 4 Errrors. There was no mention of any mistake made by them in sending Bauer into a terrible spot. There is an aspect of unreality here that scares me.
 
Kane who is an interesting handicapping using bio developed handicap methods is claiming the YANKS are the favorites tomorrow. Really that seems a little silly but the situation seems a little fluid. Not sure where I am going here
 
The ump tomorrow is Nelson. Sabathia lifetime 5-1 3.42 about 47 innings. This year he is 6-1 for large chalk. This gets better and better
 
10/10 03:16 PM PDT


MLB

GAME #955-956

WASHINGTON vs CHICAGO CUBS has been postponed due to rain. Game will be made-up Wednesday, October 11th at 1:05pm Pacific.
 
That is what I read. Roark is better on 6. About 3.30 ERA. I still think Strasburg will be used later. Essentially we have Arrieta on 6+ which is much better and he with ump is 4-1 with an ERA of 3.69. This is not a great ump however but home favs 11-7 and in this range 2-1. I am thinking of a high percentage of the bet first half. Just thinking so far. Bets should drop some as our edge with Roark has shrunk.
In the other game I am starting to think I have to play Yanks but not there yet
 
Looks like the media talked Dusty and Stras into it. A bit confused now, but if Stras is not 100% then I don't see how this ends well. Over worth a look too.
 
I got minus 10 cents. Guessing Stras here is not easy and Arrieta does have bad history while Stras recently faced them
Passing
 
Last game Stras only used 81 pitches.
Cubs are a favorite but the psycology is really hard to estimate
 
-102/-103 flip a coin. holding cubs series +125. want to bet it ca nt find an angle. yanks gm I have injuns -170 and yanks +355 for series. went from loving Cleve from start. to thin king yanks steal series. EDwing going down took the wind out of this teams sails. stand to win more off a yanks win and will prob add on to gm tn
 
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I think Edwin is playing. Going back and fourth on the game. I am starting to think just pass. I really do not want to go against a strong chalk ump. Not sure that is correct though. I do not think I can hold Sabathia's game vs Cleveland last year against him. Guy is just much healthier now. Klubber ended the season for Cleveland last year. Huge Days edge for Yanks but Klubber is much younger and a absolutely legit pitcher.
 
And yet call it vibes. Cleveland just feels wrong. The Bauer business was idiotic. They just do not seem alright. 1 unit ML do not feel you need to follow this one
 
I prefer the Tribe’s pen in this one. Been used more routinely this series. Greene has to be shaken a bit and Betances is lost.
 
tuck321 said:
I think Edwin is playing. Going back and fourth on the game. I am starting to think just pass. I really do not want to go against a strong chalk ump. Not sure that is correct though. I do not think I can hold Sabathia's game vs Cleveland last year against him. Guy is just much healthier now. Klubber ended the season for Cleveland last year. Huge Days edge for Yanks but Klubber is much younger and a absolutely legit pitcher.
Click to expand...

This was all the TIP I needed yesterday.
 
Most things favor Cubs
Ump is Layne
7 innings with Kyle easy road win 2.57 ERA
With Gio 16 innings 1-2 record ERA 5.63 ERA
This ump is 13-15 so the road teams seem to do well
Gio on 4 7-6 3.77 ERA
Kyle on 5 3-2 2.74 ERA
Days strong for both
13-5 Cubs
12-7 Washington
Will keep looking but hard not to like the matchup for Cubs
Ump a mild under this season
 
u have to think at the first time of Gio trouble, even Baker being the idiot he is, has to go to Matty Sherz who i assume should/will be available.

i think this game gets decided on SP coming out of the pens who will be doing the bulk of the heavy lifting
 
Cubs have already used Lester so assume he is unavailable after going 2.2 yesterday, don't know if they would consider Quintana out of pen but may be available for matchup situations vs. LH's. Scherzer definitely available and feel like the Nats have the advtg in mid inning relief here which has been a problem with the Cubs. Both Hendricks and Gonzalez have excellent cum numbers vs. current members of respective teams. Hendricks though in better recent form, as Gio had a couple poor starts at home in Sept. Cubs are now 8-12 vs. LH's on road for 2017 incl postseason, hitting .255 and scoring 4.58 r/9. The Cubs are 6-13-1 o/u in those games. The Cubs have lost their last 9 road games vs. LH's.
 
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Tanaka sucks on 4, right? Coming off a gem.

Dallas owns the Yanks, no? I'm showing a sub 0.8 WHIP. Plus they haven't seen him since May. Yankees are GREAT vs. pitchers they've recently seen. See Santana, Bauer, etc.

Judge can't hit anything right now and Gardy is worthless vs. lefties. Add in Didi, the Yankees best player vs. a lefty here, too. I think Yankees have a better chance vs. JV.
 
No idea. I bet the games and then go on to other things.
Just watched Undisputed where they are picking Yankees to go on. That is very interesting.
Tanaka this season on the road
4-7 ERA 6.48
Tanaka a right hander who ispitching on 4 days rest after a 7 inning shutout of Cleveland vs Dallas who is on 5 and in Houston has an average ERA of 1.64
Yankees on Friday 11-16
Houston 18-8
Yanks of a day off 11-13
Houston vs righthanders 81-38
Yankees are a real team. I expect them next year to have a dynamite team,
This year they are a good team with a great pen.
Playing at Cleveland vs a sick Klubber with the aid of some mistakes they had 3 runs in the 9th.
Houston by the way has been listening to Undisputed too. They are contemplating how Cute the Yankees are and wondering if they have a chance against the onslaught. Or they are screaming BURY them. Hard to say
Tanaka 5 games vs Houston lost the last 4 and in Houston on 2 games has given up 10 runs

DATE OPPOSITION SCR LINE W/L IP H R ER SO BB HR PIT P/IP G/F
05/14/17 HOU 7-10 -122/8.5 L/O 1.2 7 8 8 3 1 4 61 36.6 0.00
07/27/16 @ HOU 1-4 116/7 L/U 5.0 7 4 4 4 2 1 94 18.8 5.00
04/05/16 HOU 3-5 111/6.5 L/O 5.2 4 2 2 4 1 1 87 15.4 5.00
10/06/15 HOU 0-3 -102/7 L/U 5.0 4 2 2 3 3 2 83 16.6 2.33
06/27/15 @ HOU 9-6 -126/7.5 W/O 5.0 7 6 6 5 2 3 9
Side point I lean currently to Dodgers taking out Cubs who won but dissapointed me.
Yankees vs Dodgers may not be very interesting except for Dodger fans.
Astros vs Dodgers
Saying HUGE interest seems a understatement
Bottom line the League should be interested in a Astro win.
I feel like Blasting the Astros. I am not doing that. I am waiting on umps and then I hopefully will Blast Astros
 
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