First bet with many more expected

Very likely.
Boston plus 2 cents. Ugly bet in some ways but completely impersonal. This is Boston King of Tuesdays and batter vs pitcher shows how often Boston has scored on Gausman. Lean over. Baltimore is desperate and Pomeranz is playing on 4 days rest
 
Re Houston. General trends are Massive for Houston
McHugh however has been hit hard in the past by them and is playing on 6+ which has been no blessing. But McHugh is actually a great pitcher who fell down last game and started a Houston disater in 4 games. He knows he has a chance to play in the bigtime for his team. He Shuld step up big here WS has been a real thorn in Houston's side. Not blaming them at all. When someone is down kicking is very appropriate but those trends will kick in and WS pitcher has a real problem in night games so this could easily get ugly and also over. Pure spec? Lets see the ump.
 
Spent time looking at Gausman's box scores. Think a blow up very likely this game or next
 
Playing Milwaukee with Bear. Splits very one sided. Pitt 1 win last 12 games. Like both teams but---
 
Just read a writeup from Sherwood.


8:10 PM EST. Situational betting is one part of our criteria but it doesn’t apply often to MLB because there are 162 games in a season and these players are trained not to get too high or too low. However, one cannot take the human element out of anything and in that regard, we cannot overstate the euphoria a team feels when they finally clinch a playoff spot after such a long and grueling schedule.

On Sunday, the Astronauts with Justin Verlander on the hill, clinched the AL West crown and there was a big celebration that probably lasted well into the night. When the Astros traded for Justin Verlander less than three weeks ago, they envisioned days just like that. Verlander struck out 10 over seven innings in his first home start for Houston in what the media is referring to a storybook clinching game. The Astros acquired Verlander from Detroit on Aug. 31, just minutes before the deadline for players to be eligible for postseason play. He had made two starts on the road before his Minute Maid Park debut. After a clinching win that was both emotional and celebratory, the Astronauts had a day off yesterday to digest it. They may need another day or two to get back into focus, as an emotional letdown is almost inevitable.

We also like the pitching matchup here, as Colin McHugh is average on his best day while Lucas Giolito is the South Side’s ace of the future and has not looked a bit out of place in his first five MLB starts (2.56 ERA). Giolito is the real and this is both a great spot and price to bet against the Astronauts. The White Sox have been hot with the bats recently, averaging 5.5 runs per game with a .821 OPS in September.
A lot of that is true. Then we look at the description of McHugh.
Well I guess I should be polite.
 
No way I stay up long enough to see ump in SF so no bet there. What would I bet. Among other things Cueto on 6+ this season 7.59 ERA, Colorado deliberately dumped their last game vs Padres partially because they Love to screw Giants. Some problems with the Colorado starter vs Giants but I expect them to win
 
Regarding Bench playing Miami over. Lugo was a good pitcher. Team still gives him good support but due to injuries it is hard for him to stop anyone. Miami pitcher off and on. Could see it flying
 
0 idea about Toronto. Sick day of week but Ian has been So bad no idea.
Yanks game. Berrios would actually be reasonable if he had not lost 9 in a row on the road
 
Miller not great as a ump to fade Washington as Scherzer has good history but small bet. Scherzer fairly bad history with Atlanta who is seriously steam
 
Sorry 19-2 Days is a play especially with that starter for Baltimore.
Angels fine with me,
 
JBJ and Fred Lynn saved game for Bosox with their amazing D last night. Love that outfield so much. Buck hates them, they tried hard to win.
 
Yank game today is a problem. I like Bartolo but he is getting very old. 7.20 day ERA . 6-2 with home ump 2.25 lifetime ERA. Severino 14 innings 1.93 ERA. Cederstrom is a strong home ref. Large chalk last 2 years has been dominate. NY has been a killer at home recently smashing Boston 3-1 for example by large margins. Their pen advantage increased with the Minn pitcher leaving after 3.1
Going with Yanks minus 2.5 1 unit 1.5 2 units. Probably a sisy bet
 
Skipping Miami game. Urena looks good but last 2 years 0-8 in home divisional rivals. Mildly homer ref--just not enough time to think about it.
 
Skipping to Houston. Ump seems a little shaky.
Shields is on 5 0-3 7.32 ERA. bad at night 2-4 5.37
Last games vs Houston 2015
Played well at Houston good but limited history with ref.
Peacock on best rest one poor start with ump.
Houston Wednesdays 14-9 WS 5-16
Uncertain
 
Locking in Colorado. Chatwood on best rest, very good history based on 13 innings with ref very good history with SF; Moore decent guy with bad history with Colorado. Negative SF a little better on Wednesdays.
 
Average bet on Philadelphia ml
Reasoning
bullpens available
4.05 Philadelphia
3.36 Dodgers but in actual fact the Dodger bullpens has been doing an awful job 8.37 ERA last 3 games
And Whitson the ump is 19-7 for the home team and is 5-2 for home dogs this season
Starters
last 3 Thompson has been better
Played ml plus 220 and plus 1,5 plus 30
 
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Colorado seems to be going down. A little surprised, Moore was on 6+ rest which had been rather bad
MOORE is 1-3 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 9.64 and a WHIP of 2.213.
 
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tuck referencing the yanks gm from this afternoon. books didnt post a line until some where around 10 am. I know they won't post a line if a pitchers is uncertain. but last nt we knew it was bartolo vs severino. when they do post a line its -320. in my experience ( a lot less then yours) when a book does this they are trying to limit there exposure and for me is a dead give away as long as other factors line up as well.
 
Bet under 9 minus 20 cents in Pitt
Strong under ref and with Milwaukee starting a series with the Cubs tomorrow I am certain they want a peaceful game
 
1.5
2.5
Tampa might be a play Reasoning both pitchers are good on 6+ but the ump a huge over has a over 5 ERA with Lester and Cubs and Milwaukee are both looking at each other
Padres ? major trend for Arizona off 3 losses. Lamet a bit worse on 6
I could see Padres anyway. Thinking part of Arizona problem might be PEDs over use
Will put something small on Tampa.
Boston at Baltimore could drive me crazy if I intended to bet on it which I will not
Leaning Cleveland
 
tuck referencing the yanks gm from this afternoon. books didnt post a line until some where around 10 am. I know they won't post a line if a pitchers is uncertain. but last nt we knew it was bartolo vs severino. when they do post a line its -320. in my experience ( a lot less then yours) when a book does this they are trying to limit there exposure and for me is a dead give away as long as other factors line up as well.

Like dodger game today?
 
The umpire in the Houston game is rather interesting. Barber. Covers shows him umpiring 2 games where Dallas got blasted, Baseball-referance shows 4 innings 18 ERA
 
Not a pick but on a glance would have to like Cubs today.
Logic based on Arieta being very good on 6+ and the fact that they have seen Davies so much. Also Cubs used zip from pen yesterday while Brewers used 7 reasonable pitchers from their pen last night
 
Small ML add on Philadelphia
Dodger starter used 31 pitches first inning to 14 to Philadelphia.
Dodger pen???
 
Regarding Angel game. There are some technical arguments for Angels.
Salazar bad in the day poor on 5 good history with ump and another huge Day of Week for Cleveland. Need to think if I want involvement
 
Real interest in Reds today.
Bailey this season on 5 days rest 1.23 ERA based on 14.2 innings.
Martinez this season has a ERA of 7.15 vs Reds
He has almost no history with Gorman who is a major over. Bailey has experience middle 4 ERA. Plus 160 first half. Will look at lineups to determine if this bet will be made. Cardinals do very well as 75 cent favs so a first half win is fine
Cards are also a little interested tomorrow in a divisional matchup with Pitt
 
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This is by the way Dallas's second best spot 4 days and at night but some of my enthusiasm falters looking at the ref
 
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