FCS vs FBS week 0 / week 1

s--k

s--k

Goodbye to Romance College Football
I am not tuned into any FCS football what-so-ever. Feel like some members here likely watched more than typical this spring with it being on stand alone.

Just going by Sagarin rating, here are some interesting ones. Anyone see FCS vs FBS closer games or upsets....or any weaker FBS teams that could lay it on their FCS opponent?

Some examples where ratings are close:
#84 South Dakota State at #100 Colorado State (SD St went 5-1 regular springs season and won 3 playoff games before losing to Sam Houston 21-23 in the Championship)

#130 Monmouth at #122 Middle Tennessee State (Monmouth went 3-0 regular spring season avg score 41-17, then lost 15-21 to Sam Houston State in playoffs)

#191 Holy Cross at #197 UConn (Holy Cross went 3-0 in spring Patriot League before being blown out by Sam Houston in playoffs - UConn hasn't played since 2019. The last 5 seasons vs FCS UConn has only beaten Wagner by 3, Rhode Island by 7,Holy Cross by 7, Maine by 3 and Villanova by 5)

Some examples of blowouts chances to lay the points?
#146 South Dakota at #104 Kansas
#203 Northern Colorado at #51 Colorado (UNC dnp in 2020/21 instead having just 2 spring scrimmages, 2-10 in 2019. UNC's HC is Ed McCaffrey w/ former Michigan QB Dylan McCaffrey)
#220 St Francis at #75 Eastern Michigan (St Francis did not play in 2020/21, 6-6 2019)
#229 Eastern ILL at #72 South Carolina (Will be game #2 for E ILL, went 1-5 in 2021 spring)
#237 Bethune Cookman at #162 UTEP (Bethune Cookman did not play in 2020/21, 7-4 2019. UTEP will be in game #2)
#245 Wagner at #71 Buffalo (Wagner was outscored 7-44 in their two spring games)
 
Jacksonville State +14.5 vs UAB?

Jax St 10-3 2020 (3-1 fall / 7-2 spring) with second round loss in playoff. HC Grass in 8th year has .764 winning percentage and QB Cooper will become school's all time passing leader as early as week 1 this year. Jax St has opened the season in Montgomery for 3rd time in 5 years. Team has 16 All Ohio Valley Conference preseason players, most in the league and have last year's defensive POY Safety Nicario Harper.

Last 5 games vs FBS going back to 2015

beat FIU 19-10
lost FSU 24-41
lost GT 10-37
lost LSU 13-34
lost Auburn 20-27 (OT)
 
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Kind of hard to go against UAB. Look strong once again. Their offense is just so uninspiring typically, kind of easy to discount UAB, yet the D is always nails.
 
Thursday games, lines 5Dimes

TimeGm#TeamScoreOpenerBookmakerPincle5DimesBovadaBOnlineSIA
09/02
07:00 pm		308911
308912		The Citadel
Coastal Carolina
54½u20
-35½-20
09/02
07:00 pm		308913
308914		Wagner
Buffalo
57½u20
-48½-20
09/02
07:00 pm		308915
308916		Long Island
Florida International
50½u20
-33½-20
09/02
07:00 pm		308917
308918		Western Illinois
Ball State
59½u20
-25½-20
09/02
07:30 pm		308919
308920		UC Davis
Tulsa
55½u20
-29-20
09/02
07:30 pm		308921
308922		Weber State
Utah
46½u20
-32½-20
09/02
08:00 pm		308923
308924		Houston Baptist
New Mexico
68½u20
-22½-20
09/02
08:00 pm		308925
308926		Tennessee Martin
Western Kentucky
39½u20
-15½-20
09/02
10:00 pm		308927
308928		East Washington
UNLV
67½u20
pk-20
09/02
10:00 pm		308929
308930		Southern Utah
Arizona State
55½u20
-44½-20
 
Friday games:

09/03
07:00 pm		308961
308962		St. Francis (PA)
Eastern Michigan
52½u20
-30½-20
09/03
08:00 pm		308963
308964		South Dakota
Kansas
58½u20
-15½-20
09/03
09:00 pm		308965
308966		Northern Colorado
Colorado
56½u20
-35½-20
09/03
09:00 pm		308967
308968		South Dakota State
Colorado State
-3½-20
53½u20
 
Houston Baptist did not play in spring.

They have new OC (2nd year at school, WR coach last year, UNLV WR coach previous several years), new DC (1st year at HBU previous job was GA at Okla St who worked with LBs - there is a co-DC listed who has been on staff since 2012). HBU's previous OC is now at WKU. HBU's record setting QB Zappe (10,000+ career yards) is now at WKU as are HBU's top 3 receivers! HBU's backup QBs in 2020 attempted just 2 passes - one of them will take over, likely Soph Blaise Bentsen who attempted 16 passes in 3 games as a 2019 frosh.

HBU was picked 6th out of 6 teams by coaches preseason who are still left in the southland conference.

They will still run air raid, but will implement new defense.
 
Like the way this New Mexico Lobo defense is shaping up vs an inexperienced Houston Baptist QB, WR unit and first time OC. Plus 4 of the 5 OL who started their 2020 season finale, left with eligibility remaining (Burnett & Omerhinot transferred - Wilkins, Beveridge not listed in media guide)

We have defensive minded HC Gonzales and DC Rocky Long who's defensive pedigree is impeccable. It's year two of a system that wasn't able to be fully implemented last season and the D is deep beyond the starters!

DL returns all 3 starters (Noble [star of unit] - Gansallo [versatile] - Saltonstall [got better every week]) and players such as Langston Murray who has been with the team since 2017 but has now shedded almost 70 pounds to get under 300# while retaining strength and gained quickness and could be a new-found anchor in the middle. Justin Harris could be another surprise starter after not playing last year and only seeing limited duty in 2019 (Phil Steele projects him a starter in place of Saltonstall). It goes beyond those top five, 5th year Sr Yag is cited for his strength then there is 4th year Jr Bertram and rFr Santana saw action and can contribute. Not counting the other rFr and incoming Fr.

The first line of LBs will key what NM wants to do with their schemes. The top 4 for 3 spots include: Sanders [enters 3rd year at NM after JUCO], Leutele [played in all 7 as frosh best game vs Fres], Hannah [1 start, impact vs Wyo] and Hunter [2 starts, playing as tFr before injury]. Some questionable depth behind them, but the staff is high on a couple rFr plus a couple other role players.

Safety is another strong position led by All MWC S Jerrick Reed, he enters his 3rd season at NM after JUCO. Peek is entering his 4th season in NM after being at JUCO. Tavian Combs started all 7 at Lobo position last year as a true frosh! Then there are 3 depth players who all have prior starting experience, some of which were CB prior.

CB might be the most questionable position, atleast behind the top 2/3. Their statistical improvement in pass D last year in the second half of the season coincided with games vs AF, USU and WYO (whom avg'd 124 yards with below avg compl %) then Fresno passed for 350 on them in the finale so one should be cautious just looking at the pass D stats there. Donte Martin is their best and Collier and Hightower have started. After that it is a group of four second year players that have shown some flashes in camp. Assumption would be that some of the former CBs now at S (Hunt and Wilson) can fill in as needed.

The fear is that New Mexico's offense doesn't put up enough points early in the game and HBU comes in the back door in the second half to cover the 22.5 point number.

Lobo O should be much better this year with a guy like Terry Wilson at QB, who wasn't great at Kentucky, but we aren't asking him to play vs SEC defenses here.

@CPA-hole what do you think about your Lobos week 1?
 
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5Dimes (as shown on sportsbookreview) just moved their New Mexico line from 22.5 to 19.5 as I sit here!
 
LIU, Long Island University Sharks have only played two years of football as FCS! 2019 they went 0-10. 2020 they went 2-2 beating Bryant by 5 and Merrimack by 11 while losing combined score of 24-70 vs Sacred Heart and Duquesne. At FIU-33.5
 
LIU's 26 year HC Bryan Collins through div ll and the transition to FCS resigned in June of this year. 15 year QB coach now coach.

Need @bull to give insight on these FCS teams
 
St Francis did not play fall 2020 or spring 2021. They had a 6-6 record in 2019.

Since then they have lost 5 transfers: QB Jason Brown (who set the single season passing TD record in 2019 with 28), WR EJ Jenkins (who tied the single season receiving TD record in 2019 with 13), DB Dorian Jackson (16 PBU's in 2019, school record), starting OL Nawrot (allowed just 1 sack 2019....actually transferred to EMU), TE Casey Coll (transferred to Ball St)

Following the 2019 season, St Francis also lost the FCS TFL leader Da'Jon Lee (24.5) Da'Jon was also co-leader in sacks, their other co-sack leader Brian Lee is also gone. Both had 5 sacks each. Their #1 WR Ra'Shaun Henry caught 90 passes, just third player in program history to go over 1000 years - previously mentioned EJ Jenkins was #2 with 39 catches. 1st Tm All NEC OL Christian Eubanks, 1st Tm All NEC return specialist/2nd Tm DB Nick Rinella.

Of their 9 post season All-NEC 1st or 2nd Team selections in 2019, only 1 returns for 2021.
 
Citadel +31.5 interest you? Coastal lost quite a few players and being in the spotlight last year and ranked to begin the season seems to add points to this. I dont think they hold the Citadel scoreless, so will likely need 45 or more to cover.....
 
@Rusty Trombone

I will have to look. These games I'm always trying to scramble like 20 minutes before KO to see if I have an opinion on them. But this year I'm finding unique interest in the matchups.

It's not normally my nature to find large favorites to play. Perhaps Fresno and the large MOV in the UTEP wins have inspired me to find week opponents. I should be looking for upsets, hard when the first thing I read about these FCS teams is literally the first thing I've ever known about them.

I'll see how Citadel strikes me later.
 
I don't know....glancing over Coastal for the first time this summer...they lost Marble at RB who was very good running and receiving for them, and they lost a DE to the NFL. Other than that, I don't see where they lost anyone significant?

Coastal returns QB, #2 and #3 RBs, top 3 receivers, 137 career OL starts, their top 6 tacklers are back and 18 of their top 19 tacklers overall (91.8% tackles return). Will see what Citadel looks like tonight. Only angle I could think of off hand is now that Coastal has "arrived" they might take a team like Citadel lightly? In state school Citadel is though?
 
Citadel 2-6 in the spring season.

Their LB Willie Eubanks was 1st Tm SoCon as was their Punter. OL Haden Haas made 2nd Tm O while DB Parrish Gordon made 2nd Tm D. It appears like all of those players are returning for the fall season.

Eubanks is former SoCon D POY.

Brockington and Storch made All Frosh on O and Hackett was named All Frosh on D.

Citadel does eat clock and win TOP all the time. So you could be on to something purely with the size of the number, if Citadel can grind it might limit opportunity for Coastal and we wouldn't expect Coastal to be playing their key players much into the 2nd H.

Their previous opening season games vs FBS:
2020 USF 6-27
2009 UNC 6-40
2006 aTm 3-35
2002 LSU 10-35
2001 GT 7-35

In other FBS games Citadel has won at GT 2019 27-24 (ot) and 2015 at S Car 23-22

Every major assistant coach has been there a couple years, no new coaches. The HC and OC are entering 6th season. So stability on the staff.

Based on their final spring 2021 depth chart, without checking the entire roster, it appear would appear they return everyone just based on remaining eligibility.

Yeah, they look decent for who they are.

That is one thing I was seeing with Houston Baptist and St Francis, those teams do not return much at all in the way of key players. Citadel looks pretty experienced and stable.

So how many points can they score? Like you say, they probably won't be shutout.
 
Speaking of Citadel…..I think Alabama didn’t cover against them like last year or 2 years ago. Alabama was big road favorite……call off the dogs 2H half…..read an article where Citadel school got paid almost 1 million dollars to play against Alabama.

liking the Big + spread in this game too…..maybe playing CC 1H and then Citadel full game?
 
Couple blurbs on Citadel from recent SoCon previews:

The Citadel – A lot of people though The Citadel would contend for the title in the fall. But they fell flat. They struggled to put a complete game together. They couldn’t score consistently and couldn’t keep the opponent off the board. That is a bad combination. They didn’t give up and did win two of their final three games.
Click to expand...

The Citadel (2-10, 2-6) – The Bulldogs’ triple option offense averaged 308.6 rushing yards against nine FCS opponents, but it still had the SoCon-best average (241.9) even when adding in three FBS losses. All-American Willie Eubanks III is a tackle machine, collecting nine or more in 10 of his last 13 games, and fellow linebacker Anthony Britton Jr. is coming off a breakout sophomore campaign with 104 stops.
Click to expand...

Offensive Formation: Triple Option
Defensive Formation: Multiple
Starters returning/lost: 25 / 1
Offensive starters - Returning/Lost: 13 / 1
Defensive starters - Returning/Lost: 12 / 0
Lettermen - Returning: 42

Key being the returning players on Citadel's team. They had no portal transfers that I found and 25 returning starters and consistency on the coaching staff and a clock eating offense should give them a chance to hang in the number which I see as 35.5.

One caveat, a story broke yesterday that Starting Captain CB Javonte Middleton was arrested on domestic violence.

Good find guys!
 
New Mexico down to 18.5

UNLV at 9.5 (pk must've been error from earlier post)

Western Kentucky drop to 13.5

I'm not used to watching these kind of numbers. Are they generally volatile?
 
Here are the Saturday games (5Dimes lines):

09/04
12:00 pm		308971
308972		Holy Cross
Connecticut
53½u20
-2½-20
09/04
12:00 pm		308973
308974		Colgate
Boston College
52½u20
-50½-20
09/04
12:00 pm		308975
308976		Fordham
Nebraska
55½u20
-42½-20
09/04
02:00 pm		308977
308978		Lafayette
Air Force
49½u20
-42½-20
09/04
04:00 pm		308979
308980		Montana State
Wyoming
44½u20
-17½-20
09/04
04:30 pm		308981
308982		Northern Iowa
Iowa State
42½u20
-37½-20
09/04
06:00 pm		308983
308984		Campbell
Liberty
54½u20
-20½-20
09/04
06:00 pm		308985
308986		Gardner Webb
Georgia Southern
52½u20
-32½-20
09/04
07:00 pm		308987
308988		Norfolk St
Toledo
58½u20
-37½-20
09/04
07:00 pm		308989
308990		Southern
Troy
56½u20
-26½-20
09/04
07:00 pm		308991
308992		Nicholls State
Memphis
69½u20
-21½-20
09/04
07:00 pm		308993
308994		Missouri St
Oklahoma State
51½u20
-36½-20
09/04
07:00 pm		308995
308996		Monmouth
Middle Tennessee State
59½u20
-7½-20
09/04
07:00 pm		308997
308998		Eastern Illinois
South Carolina
58½u20
-43½-20
09/04
07:00 pm		308999
309000		Central Arkansas
Arkansas State
65½u20
-13½-20
09/04
07:00 pm		309001
309002		Abilene Christian
SMU
66½u20
-30½-20
09/04
07:30 pm		309003
309004		Northwestern State
North Texas
64½u20
-17½-20
09/04
07:30 pm		309005
309006		William & Mary
Virginia
49½u20
-33½-20
09/04
08:00 pm		309007
309008		Duquesne
TCU
56½u20
-49½-20
09/04
08:00 pm		309009
309010		East Tennessee State
Vanderbilt
44½u20
-21½-20
09/04
08:00 pm		309011
309012		Montana
Washington
54½u20
-23½-20
09/04
09:00 pm		309013
309014		Bethune Cookman
UTEP
51½u20
-19½-20
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Citadel +31.5 interest you? Coastal lost quite a few players and being in the spotlight last year and ranked to begin the season seems to add points to this. I dont think they hold the Citadel scoreless, so will likely need 45 or more to cover.....
Click to expand...
I actually have Coastal in my sights if BOL posts a line that is reasonable by the time they get around to them. I posted about this game as a potential play probably about a month ago, so just hoping that the line still has some value by the time it gets on the board.
 
s--k said:
Citadel 2-6 in the spring season.

Their LB Willie Eubanks was 1st Tm SoCon as was their Punter. OL Haden Haas made 2nd Tm O while DB Parrish Gordon made 2nd Tm D. It appears like all of those players are returning for the fall season.

Eubanks is former SoCon D POY.

Brockington and Storch made All Frosh on O and Hackett was named All Frosh on D.

Citadel does eat clock and win TOP all the time. So you could be on to something purely with the size of the number, if Citadel can grind it might limit opportunity for Coastal and we wouldn't expect Coastal to be playing their key players much into the 2nd H.

Their previous opening season games vs FBS:
2020 USF 6-27
2009 UNC 6-40
2006 aTm 3-35
2002 LSU 10-35
2001 GT 7-35

In other FBS games Citadel has won at GT 2019 27-24 (ot) and 2015 at S Car 23-22

Every major assistant coach has been there a couple years, no new coaches. The HC and OC are entering 6th season. So stability on the staff.

Based on their final spring 2021 depth chart, without checking the entire roster, it appear would appear they return everyone just based on remaining eligibility.

Yeah, they look decent for who they are.

That is one thing I was seeing with Houston Baptist and St Francis, those teams do not return much at all in the way of key players. Citadel looks pretty experienced and stable.

So how many points can they score? Like you say, they probably won't be shutout.
Click to expand...
I think Citadel is gonna have all sorts of problems getting past the DL leading to a bunch of 3 and outs....They were pretty bad in the first quarter the last couple of years, so if Coastal gets up early like 14-0 in the first, Citadel will have to change things up a bit and I could see turnovers coming into play. I was thinking something like 52-10 or 45-7, but again, until the line comes out at BOL, just speculation at this point.
 
s--k said:
Here are the Saturday games (5Dimes lines):

09/04
12:00 pm		308971
308972		Holy Cross
Connecticut
53½u20
-2½-20
09/04
12:00 pm		308973
308974		Colgate
Boston College
52½u20
-50½-20
09/04
12:00 pm		308975
308976		Fordham
Nebraska
55½u20
-42½-20
09/04
02:00 pm		308977
308978		Lafayette
Air Force
49½u20
-42½-20
09/04
04:00 pm		308979
308980		Montana State
Wyoming
44½u20
-17½-20
09/04
04:30 pm		308981
308982		Northern Iowa
Iowa State
42½u20
-37½-20
09/04
06:00 pm		308983
308984		Campbell
Liberty
54½u20
-20½-20
09/04
06:00 pm		308985
308986		Gardner Webb
Georgia Southern
52½u20
-32½-20
09/04
07:00 pm		308987
308988		Norfolk St
Toledo
58½u20
-37½-20
09/04
07:00 pm		308989
308990		Southern
Troy
56½u20
-26½-20
09/04
07:00 pm		308991
308992		Nicholls State
Memphis
69½u20
-21½-20
09/04
07:00 pm		308993
308994		Missouri St
Oklahoma State
51½u20
-36½-20
09/04
07:00 pm		308995
308996		Monmouth
Middle Tennessee State
59½u20
-7½-20
09/04
07:00 pm		308997
308998		Eastern Illinois
South Carolina
58½u20
-43½-20
09/04
07:00 pm		308999
309000		Central Arkansas
Arkansas State
65½u20
-13½-20
09/04
07:00 pm		309001
309002		Abilene Christian
SMU
66½u20
-30½-20
09/04
07:30 pm		309003
309004		Northwestern State
North Texas
64½u20
-17½-20
09/04
07:30 pm		309005
309006		William & Mary
Virginia
49½u20
-33½-20
09/04
08:00 pm		309007
309008		Duquesne
TCU
56½u20
-49½-20
09/04
08:00 pm		309009
309010		East Tennessee State
Vanderbilt
44½u20
-21½-20
09/04
08:00 pm		309011
309012		Montana
Washington
54½u20
-23½-20
09/04
09:00 pm		309013
309014		Bethune Cookman
UTEP
51½u20
-19½-20
Liberty, Ga Southern and UVA are three others that I am keeping an eye on for the BOL lines...
Click to expand...
 
carolinablue said:
I think Citadel is gonna have all sorts of problems getting past the DL leading to a bunch of 3 and outs....They were pretty bad in the first quarter the last couple of years, so if Coastal gets up early like 14-0 in the first, Citadel will have to change things up a bit and I could see turnovers coming into play. I was thinking something like 52-10 or 45-7, but again, until the line comes out at BOL, just speculation at this point.
Click to expand...

I don't hardly know shit about Citadel other than what I've posted.

But one thing, I'm not sure they change it up. Were down a quick 14-0 vs Clemson and 5 of their next 6 plays were runs. Were down 28-0 end of 1st Q and them guys just kept running. They were down 49-0 at halftime and they only passed the ball 3 times the entire half compared to 22 runs in the half. I think it is just what they do regardless.
 
Vs USF last year, 1st Q they ran 16x for just 60 yards, attempted 2 passes. 2nd Q they ran 17x for 76y, attempted 7 passes. They got down 20-6 by the end of the 3rd Q and they just kept running...12x for 34y and just 2 pass attempts. In the 4th Q, down 27-6, they did start passing more. 7 passes vs 9 rushes in the 4th Q.

Hard to say exactly what they will do, but looks like they are pretty content running even if they aren't getting good gains out of it all while falling further behind.
 
s--k said:
I don't hardly know shit about Citadel other than what I've posted.

But one thing, I'm not sure they change it up. Were down a quick 14-0 vs Clemson and 5 of their next 6 plays were runs. Were down 28-0 end of 1st Q and them guys just kept running. They were down 49-0 at halftime and they only passed the ball 3 times the entire half compared to 22 runs in the half. I think it is just what they do regardless.
Click to expand...
They had all closed practices according to the local papers so was wondering if they were up to something…
 
sleepy said:
I think EWU beats UNLV outright.
Click to expand...

That's not a bad pick!

Eastern Washington with a winning pedigree, occasional history of upsetting FBS teams vs perennial doormat that doesn't yet know how to win games.

But it goes beyond that.

They enter 2021 season ranked anywhere from 8th - 19th in various FCS presason polls (average rank 13th).

In the FCS spring season they went 5-2 while losing in the first round of the playoffs to ND State. EWU led the FCS in total offense (524.9 ypg) and 8th in scoring (37.7)! The defense was not as steller, 65th out of 97 allowing 382.7 ypg and 56th scoring D allowing 26.9.

EWU returns all 22 starters including three 7th year seniors and four 6th year seniors. 14 of their players have received all conference recognition at some point. 3 players are preseason FCS All-Americans: QB Eric Barriere, OT Tristen Taylor and WR Talolo Limu-Jones.

QB Eric Barriere was runner-up for Walter Payton Award! Barriere is 20-9 as a starter and has accumulated 10,102 total yards in his career. He's a 60.3% career passer with a 75-21 ratio. Barriere is EWU's all time leading rusher at QB and EWU is 19-1 with Barriere rushes for atleast 21 yards!

EWU has lost 3 straight vs FBS (+7 2017 at Texas Tech 10-56) (+20.5 2018 at Washington State 24-59) (+22.5 2019 at Washington 14-47). Those Wazzou and UW teams were pretty good however, '18 Wazzou went 11-2 and '19 UW went 8-5 with 4 of 5 losses coming by 1 score. 2017 Texas Tech wasn't very good, neither was EWU that season going just 7-4 (first season after losing HC Beau Baldwin).

Their last win came in 2016's opener when they beat Washington State 45-42 (+27.5). They also knocked off a ranked Oregon State team in 2013 49-46 (+27).

EWU is 58-0 wince 2010 when they've won the turnover margin! UNLV had a -4 turnover ratio last year in 6 games.

This looks like a good pick. Experienced and talented team getting over a TD (8.5 current?) vs a team that rarely ever favored. UNLV infamously lost to Howard as a 45 point favorite and has lost 7 games outright in their last 13 roles as a fav.

According to Jeff Sagarin Eastern Washington ranks 129th (54.24 rating). UNLV ranks 124th (55.65 rating).
 
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Who the hell is Monmouth! LOL...

In the first round of the 2021 FCS spring playoffs they lost to eventual champion Sam Houston State. But Monmouth held them 254 yards BELOW their offensive average (lost 15-21, did trail 0-21). Monmouth outgained them 398-257 (158-115 yard edge at halftime)!

Middle Tennessee State has Bailey Hockman as a transfer QB. The last 3 seasons MTSU has seen a QB lead the team in rush attempts, Hockman is not a runner, so this is a big change in offense for MTSU. MTSU's new OC was at Kansas last two years, as if that inspires any confidence? MTSU has lost to teams like North Texas, Rice and Charlotte as favorites the last two seasons.

Monmouth is picked to win the Big South according to the preseason coaches poll. One preview clip:

1. Monmouth (3-1, 3-0 Big South) – On a 10-game Big South winning streak, the Hawks return 21 of 22 starters for coach Kevin Callahan’s 29th season, including three preseason All-Americans and 15 players who received preseason all-conference honors (tripling Kennesaw State’s second-best five picks). Quarterback Tony Muskett (1,039 passing yards, nine touchdowns against two interceptions) played with poise as a freshman.
Click to expand...

Monmouth returns 10 starters on O and 9 starters on D (would've been higher but 2 players were hurt in camp). They start 4 graduate players on OL and another 4th year SR. In fact every player on their O is a Jr or older, only their QB was a first year starter last year as a frosh. The D is equally experienced with 8 of the 11 starters graduate seniors or regular seniors, the other 3 a top their depth chart are Jr's. Their RB Farri was Conference O POY. Their WR Moore is 2x All Conference, their other WR Greene led the league in receptions, yards and TDs. Their C is the FCS Remington Award winner. They have six 1st Tm All Conference starters on D, LB Massy is 2x All Conf, CB Terry is 3x All Conf and FS Budd is the Big South preseason D POY. Monmouth is led by head coach Kevin Callahan who enters his 29th season, he is Monmouth's first and only head coach is is 5x conference coach of the year including spring 2021. Monmouth is 0-4 vs FBS teams.

MTSU is just a 7.5 point favorite. Let's go Hawks!
 
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Oh boy, I'm really going down the rabbit hole on FCS teams and I like it!




Monmouth football has national championship aspirations
Stephen Edelson
Asbury Park Press

It was a preseason smorgasbord for Monmouth University at Tuesday’s Big South Media Day in Charlotte, North Carolina.
The Hawks sat atop the poll when it was unveiled, favored to make it three straight league titles, while redshirt junior running back Juwon Farri was named as the Preseason Offensive Player of the Year and redshirt senior safety Anthony Budd picked up the same honor on the defensive side.
And it’s not just conference rivals who are impressed.
Monmouth heads into training camp ranked No. 10 nationally in the FCS Coaches Preseason Poll, after falling short in the final minute of a 21-15 FCS Playoff loss at Sam Houston State, the eventual national champion, in April.
Monmouth running back Juwon Farri tries to elude a Sam Houston State defender during an FCS Playoff game in Huntsville, Texas on April 24, 2021.


Put it all together and it means the most important season of football ever in West Long Branch is upon us. Because 28 years after Kevin Callahan launched the program, the only head coach the program’s ever known has a team capable of winning a national championship.

'We can win in games like that'​

“What the Sam Houston game did show us is that now we belong on that level. We belong in that top-10 conversation,” Callahan said. “In 2017 when we played Northern Iowa, or in 2019 when we played James Madison in the second round, we didn’t come away from those games being able to say the same thing.


“I think we came away from the Sam Houston game being able to say, ‘hey, we deserve to be in that conversation now.' And I think it instilled a sense of confidence in our team that not only can play in games like that and compete in games like that, and we can win in games like that.”
After losing those postseason games to FCS powers Northern Iowa and James Madison by a combined score of 112-28, Monmouth had a first-and-goal at the Sam Houston 9-yard-line with just over a minute to play against the No. 2 seed. Sam Houston ended the season 10-0, beating top-seeded South Dakota Stake in the final.
“It showed how many steps we’ve taken as a program,” said Budd, credited with eight turnovers, including seven interceptions, over his last 17 games. “We competed well with one of the top programs in the nation so I feel like it shows how good a defense we have and how good a team have.”
Monmouth University Head Football Coach Kevin Callahan times plays during Monmouth University football practice on August 15, 2018 in West Long Branch, NJ.


Lots of returning starters​

The Hawks, who landed 14 players on the Preseason All-Big South first team, return all but one starter from the spring, with that team returning 17 starters from the 2019 squad that gave the program its first FCS playoff win.
“In my mind, there is no substitution from having experienced players, who have been in competitive situations and succeeded in those situations on the field,” Callahan said. “If you look at the continuity of our coaching staff over the last 20-something years, we’ve been together for a long time. Now we have a team that’s been together for a long time. There’s going to be no surprises. They all know what the expectations are.”

Now come the expectations. Monmouth won’t sneak up on anyone, with the target squarely on them this fall as the Big South welcomes some new teams. Chief among them is North Carolina A&T, a former MEAC school that went 9-3 in 2019, the last time the Aggies took the field.
“We’re going to be everyone’s go-to team to beat, so we’re going to get the best out of everybody,” said Farri, a finalist for last season’s Walter Peyton Award, given to the FCS’s top offensive player.
Click to expand...
 
s--k said:
Kind of hard to go against UAB. Look strong once again. Their offense is just so uninspiring typically, kind of easy to discount UAB, yet the D is always nails.
Click to expand...

I’m seeing -16.5/51.5 at the moment. One thing to keep in mind is that the coaches are really good friends. If Clark is up 14 late and you need a score to cover, I’d be very afraid he’d knee the ball. There is no way in hell he’ll try to embarrass Grass. Obviously who knows the likelihood of that scenario actually coming into play. Also of note, 70% chance of showers. The one thing I’m concerned about with my gamecocks is the young receivers. Has someone stepped up to fill the void of Berry and Pearson leaving? If not, the Blazers D will be able to stack the box and then it will turn into a long night. I think the Jax St D will hold their own, but historically they’ve been prone to giving up the big play and tend to give up plenty against a good O. I’m just not sure we’re calling the Blazers O top tier. I’ll hold tight hoping for a 17 and it will be a small play no matter what. I’m a fan of both teams and am happy for the exposure for both programs.
 
www.argusleader.com

South Dakota State football seeks second win over FBS opponent when it visits Colorado State

South Dakota State is 1-9 all-time against FBS teams, but have yet to face group of five opponent. SDSU faces Colorado State on Friday.
www.argusleader.com www.argusleader.com

South Dakota State is the only favorite over an FBS team in Colorado State.

SD State lost the FCS national championship this spring. They've made the playoffs 9 straight years (only 1 of 2 teams on such a run). They were picked among conference coaches to win the Missouri Valley Conference this season.

SD State returns 22 starters, although MWC O POY, Fr QB Mark Gronowski (1,565y passing 15-3 ratio and 577y rushing 7.0ypc) will miss this season with injury suffered in FCS spring Title game. That will leave USF and Samford QB Chris Olakokun as this year's likely starting QB. Last year's team had 9 1st or 2nd Tm All Conference players. The 5 starting OL started all 10 games together. The unit has 2 FCS AAs and they ran for 231.7 ypg last year, their highest since joining Div l in 2004! The top two RBs combined for 1500+ yards in 10 games. The DL is experienced and can run 3 deep at each spot. They bring back their top 2 tackling LBs. CB Don Gardner is 1st Tm AA while the other CB spot saw rotating players.

SD State HC John Stiegelmeier enters his 25th season and has had a few close games vs FBS schools. They only lost by 3 and 7 to Minnesota in 2009 and 2019 respectively and beat Kansas 41-38 in 2015. Not all their games have been close, losing by 18 vs TCU, 20 vs Missouri, 39 vs Nebraska, 14 vs Kansas in 2012, 53 vs Illinois, 14 vs Nebraska in 2010 and 27 vs Iowa State in 2008. Those were all Power 5 conference schools. Playing vs Colorado State marks their first game vs a Group of 5 conference school.

Tough game for CSU who hasn't had a winning season since 2017!

I actually like Colorado State's team with the exception of QB. Colorado State's run D should provide a tough challenge even for the experienced Jack Rabbits. CSU held teams like Wyoming, Boise and San Diego State last year all to 3.0 ypc or below and all of their first unit DL and LB players return (5 of the DL/LB players received some kind of All MWC recognition). I'm not sure SD State possess much of a passing threat that CSU shouldn't be able to handle.

CSU O has RB David Bailey coming in to join 3 of the BC OL transfers from last year. Rams also have a pretty solid WR-TE duo. It all comes down to QB, Todd Centeio which likely will be this team's achilles heel. I think if he turns in a good game, Rams should be good enough everywhere else to pull an upset.
 
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Lines out at BOL and I just took these two...

Thursday 9/2
308912 Coastal Carolina -34 115
308918 Ball State -25.5 130
 
New Mexico down to 14.5 (22.5 a few days ago)

Assuming it doesn't take much action to move these lines as books are likely sensitive to missing the mark and adjusting quickly.

So New Mexico sucked last year and Houston Baptist is perennial DD win team. Is that it?

Pretty safe I believe to foresee a good bit of improvement on UNM and then...am I putting too much on the transfers out of HBU?
 
South Dakota State dropped from -3.5 to -2.5. Think they stay favored by kickoff?
 
Holy shit these line moves are crazy. UNM 24.5 now? Went 22.5, 18.5, 14.5, 24.5! UNLV drops from 9 to 7.5 to 3.5
 
Western Illinois, I haven't read anything on them yet, but have heard from other MVC type previews, they must be pretty bad.
 
Last edited:
captjohn67 said:
I’m seeing -16.5/51.5 at the moment. One thing to keep in mind is that the coaches are really good friends. If Clark is up 14 late and you need a score to cover, I’d be very afraid he’d knee the ball. There is no way in hell he’ll try to embarrass Grass. Obviously who knows the likelihood of that scenario actually coming into play. Also of note, 70% chance of showers. The one thing I’m concerned about with my gamecocks is the young receivers. Has someone stepped up to fill the void of Berry and Pearson leaving? If not, the Blazers D will be able to stack the box and then it will turn into a long night. I think the Jax St D will hold their own, but historically they’ve been prone to giving up the big play and tend to give up plenty against a good O. I’m just not sure we’re calling the Blazers O top tier. I’ll hold tight hoping for a 17 and it will be a small play no matter what. I’m a fan of both teams and am happy for the exposure for both programs.
Click to expand...
Knew you'd chime in on Jax St...I want to take the points but it simply doesn't look like it's moving to 17, so might just play them 1h
 
s--k said:
Holy shit these line moves are crazy. UNM 24.5 now? Went 22.5, 18.5, 14.5, 24.5! UNLV drops from 9 to 7.5 to 3.5
Click to expand...
Funny I looked at New Mexico at 14.5 but I just didn't trust their offense enough...Figured it would go up but didn't think almost 10 points haha
 
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