European basketball season 2015/2016

I'm fading this week Euroleague big winners (Barcelona, Laboral Kutxa) - they must be tired/emotionally exhausted, don't they? And on Thursday and Friday they play another round of games in EL: Real with Olympiacos, Barcelona with Vitoria... Didn't took Malaga because of their horrible ATS record as road team in ACB (1-8 ATS).

ACB: Valencia +6 (1.90)

Barcelona is 2-5 ATS as home fave in ACB. Valencia is 6-1 ATS on the road in ACB. Barcelona is in a letdown spot after Thursday big road win over Real Madrid in Euroleague. Valencia lost its Eurocup game against Limoges on Tueasday, a game in which Valencia players weren't playing on 100% - Valencia was clearly in lookahead spot before today's game with Barcelona. (B)

ACB: Andorra +12 (1.94)

Andorra is 6-1 ATS as road underdog in ACB. Today we get them as big double digit dog. Laboral Kutxa will find itself in letdown spot after Thursday big, emotional win over CSKA in Euroleague. Tired Laboral Kutxa on short rest versus good and rested road team... (B)

VTB: Riga +4.5 (1.94)

Riga is 5-2 ATS as road underdog in VTB. Enisey is 2-3 ATS as home favorite in VTB. Riga won both meetings with Enisey last season and lost first meeting with Krasnoyarsk in October by 2 points. (C)

Lega A: Brindisi/Bologna Under 150.5 (1.93)

Bologna last 3 games stayed under the total. Bologna is 4-12 O/U (3-6 O/U at home) in Lega A. Both teams have bad eFG% (below .500) and bad ORtg (around 100 or lower). (B)

BUMS: Riga (2.74), Nikisic (2.73), Cibona (2.49) Bnei (2.13).
 
Valencia +6 - W
Andorra +12 - P
Riga +4.5 - L
Brindisi/Bologna Under 150.5 - L

Jan. 24th: 1-2-1 (-1.10u)

Season: 188-170-3 (+3.81u)
 
A1: Panathinaikos +6 (1.92)

Olympiacos was struggling mightily in their last 2 games. Their main problem is they are relying too much on Spanoulis performance. Other Olympiacos players are underperforming, they are passive, always looking at their leader to assist or to shoot in key moments and the opponents are perfectly aware of that, so everything they do is to throw a lock-down defender at Spanoulis and watch how fast Olympiacos offense is collapsing. That's the strategy Brose Bamberg and Zalgiris Kaunas was employing in their big wins over Pireaus. Also: without sharpshooter Lojeski it's a different team. With every game Panathinaikos is getting better. I won't be surprised if they win this game outright. (B)

Winner: Ashdod/H. Tel Aviv Over 161 (1.91)

Ashdod scored 96, 91, and 94 points in their last three games. Expect the same today - they will force Hapoel Tel Aviv to do the same, that is to score a lot if they don't want to lose this home game. (C)
 
Hapoel usually takes pride in their defense. Don't know what's wrong with them lately... I like them more SU/ ATS than on Over.

Good luck!
 
utfootball4 said:
Don't see Loko covering 14.
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I did handicapped it in the morning at: Kuban 83, Nymburk 75. Kuban should be 8-point favorite not 14.5, line is overinflated - no doubt. Value is on the Nymburk side but they are not playing well recently (dunno why). Kuban will have a game in Euroleague on Friday (Cedevita), so a small lookahead spot also for them. Too bad if they decide to make a general rehearsal before Cedevita game and win by 15 or more... it's always possible, they have awesome roster.
 
divol said:
Hapoel usually takes pride in their defense. Don't know what's wrong with them lately... I like them more SU/ ATS than on Over.

Good luck!
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True, but they are also scoring at home 84 points on avg in their last 3 home games and 78 points on average in their last 5 gms. Ashdod will make it to 80 for sure, they are fearless - they just dropped 96 on Maccabi Tel Aviv.
 
divol said:
Maccabi are terrible on defense...
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True but still - let's look at H2H. Last 5 meetings between Ashdod and H.Tel Aviv - Totals: 177, 181, 172 (without points scored in OT), 163, 173. All those games were played in 2015 and 2014. O/U is 5-0 in last 5 between them. That's a VERY strong trend.
 
I'm not saying you're wrong. As I said, I hate playing totals in Israel. 90% of my bets there are ATS... This season, it's 100% ATS picks... Good luck!
 
divol said:
I'm not saying you're wrong. As I said, I hate playing totals in Israel. 90% of my bets there are ATS... This season, it's 100% ATS picks... Good luck!
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I didn't feel it that way. I just think O/U has better value than ATS. 161 line is beatable unless bad shooting night dooms some team. I had Ashdod winning by 5 points (outright) but the problem is - their recent numbers were so good that they may be deceiving a little bit, but still good enough to result in an over.
 
FIBA Cup: Antwerp/Ventspils Over 159.5 (1.93)

Ventspils won first meeting 97:80. I'm expecting similar outcome today when it comes to totals. The second game should be much closer though. (B)

Eurocup: Nizhny Novgorod/Ljubljana Under 157.5 (1.95)

Nizhny Novgorod won first game at Ljubljana 73:79. Both those teams are scoring 77 points on average in their last 5 games. Team from Slovenia is scoring 71 points per game in their last 7 road games in Eurocup and Adriatic League. This is not a great offensive team when playing on the road. Ljubljana head coach Gasper Potocnik is perfectly aware of his team drawbacks and in road games he likes to slow down the tempo of the game by playing mostly half-court offense just to keep his team in the game as long as possible. This strategy worked to some extend in game with Maccabi Tel Aviv (9 point loss) and Oldenburg (2 points win). I'm expecting the same type of game plan today and it should result in an under result. Home team will be on short 1-day rest, road team on 2-day rest, traveling 2.700km (4-5 hours flight). (B)

BUMS: Khimik Yuzhne (3,16).
 
Antwerp/Ventspils Over 159.5 - L
Nizhny Novgorod/Ljubljana Under 157.5 - W

Jan. 26th: 1-1 (-0.05u)

Season: 190-172-3 (+3.67u)
 
I was handicapping Wednesday games in Eurocup and FIBA Cup and found some line value (I hope so...). Of course these numbers are totally sheer and I think that many of the top teams from the list will have trouble covering the spread. Numbers, especially raw, may be very misleading. Let's don't forget that many teams have made important upgrades to their rosters recently and that many teams participating in the int. competitions are aiming to take 1st or 2nd place in a group they are playing, while some teams are in the bottom of the standings, being already eliminated - those teams will not show up to play today and let's not forget that some venues they will be playing are particularly tough (like Thessaloniki, Munich, St.Petersburg, Cantu, Lyon, Varese).

Public is on: Saratov (-2.5), Aris (-3.5), Zielona Góra (+8.5), Bilbao (+7.5), Strasbourg (+3.5), Sassari (-1.5), Trento (-1.5) (Eurocup). No line movement in other matchups yet.

Let's hope I did not made any math errors (pm me if so). In brackets: projected W or L and point diff. All numbers are RAW - you need to work with them, adjust using your own power rankings, trends and so on...

Best Line Value found for Home Teams:

Eurocup:
+8.5 line value for Munich (W by 14 over Bilbao)
+5.5 line value for Kazan (W by 14 over Maccabi)
+2.5 line value for Jerusalem (W by 6 over Strasbourg)
+0.5 line value for Saratov (W by 1 over Gran Canaria? - is it possible?)
0 line value for Banvit (W by 1 over Ulm?)

FIBA Cup:
+8.5 line value points for Bakken (W by 3 over Utena - does not make sense as Juventus crushed them by 24)
+5 line value for Frankfurt (W by 12 over Gaziantep)
+4 line value points for Le Havre (W by 10 over Rovinari)
+0.5 line value for Oostende (W by 23 over Wrocław)

Best Line Value found for Away Teams:

Eurocup:
+8.5 line value for Berlin (W by 5 over Aris - does not make sense but Aris is struggling mightily)
+8.5 line value for Zielona Góra (L by 1 at St.Petersburg? Don't think so...)
+4.5 line value for Trabzon (L by 2 at Reggio Emilia)
+2.5 line value for Zaragoza (L by 1 + cover at Sardegna? Probable, Zaragoza made some roster moves and is playing better.)
+2 line value for Galatasaray (W by 11 over Szolnoki? Galatasaray is shaky on the road)
+1.5 line value for Pinar at Trento (L by 1 at Trento?)
+0.5 line value for Ludwigsburg (L by 3 at Venezia, coin toss)

FIBA Cup:
+19.5 line value for Kataja (W by 14 over Krka - point difference and projected road win for Kataja makes no sense at all)
+17.5 line value for Boras (L by 1 at Ankara - highly doubtful)
+14 line value for Lukoil (W by 3 over Nymburk - does not make any sense - Nymburk seems too strong at home)
+9.5 line value for Tartu (L by 5 at Cantu - Tartu may not survive the wild atmosphere at Cantu venue)
+8.5 line value for Rishon (L by 1 at Lyon - this number may be deceiving)
+7 line value for Pieno (L by 1 at Cibona?)
+5.5 line value for Sodertalje (W by 1 over Radom - is road win for Sodertalje possible at all?)
+4.5 line value for Minsk (W by 11 over Gussing - Minsk is not a good road team and Gussing is unpredictable)
+2.5 line value for AEK Larnaca (L by 6 at Varese - highly doubtful)
+1.5 line value for Enisey (L by 6 at Chalon and cover?)

Picks coming later...
 
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Eurocup: Kazan -7.5 (1.94)
Eurocup: Jerusalem -2.5 (1.90)
Eurocup: Munich -7 (1.94)
FIBA Cup: Frankfurt -7 (1.99)
FIBA Cup: Varese -8.5 (1.95)
 
Trento beat Pinar on the road recently, they have good ats record at home, Pinar is bad on th road (last win Dec.18th). Spread is very small, easy to beat.

Zaragoza is playing better since the club fired head coach Joaquin Ruiz, F Kanacevic and G Diener. Zaragoza signed 2 new players (F Swing, C Kravtsov). Yes, they lost on Sunday to Fuenlabrada (which was shooting tons of threes on crazy percentage). I think in that game Zaragoza was in lookahead spot before today's game. I'm expecting better performance and Sassari is very unpredictable, home side may stumble.
 
I got Sopot at 69 and Dabrowa Gornicza at 73. Sopot has good home ats record, Dabrowa Gornicza is typical home team, very mediocre on the road. Sopot is 1.5-point home dog now at Pinnacle.
 
moneyprinter said:
Trento beat Pinar on the road recently, they have good ats record at home, Pinar is bad on th road (last win Dec.18th). Spread is very small, easy to beat.

Zaragoza is playing better since the club fired head coach Joaquin Ruiz, F Kanacevic and G Diener. Zaragoza signed 2 new players (F Swing, C Kravtsov). Yes, they lost on Sunday to Fuenlabrada (which was shooting tons of threes on crazy percentage). I think in that game Zaragoza was in lookahead spot before today's game. I'm expecting better performance and Sassari is very unpredictable, home side may stumble.
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I'm leaning both dogs but need to see bet365 team totals first.
 
Another so-so day.

The French clubs (Limoges, Strasbourg) that were underperforming in Euroleague are now suddenly hot in Eurocup, it seems all they needed was to play against opponents at their level. Venezia, Reggio, Trento are looking solid. Some Turkish teams (Pinar, Trabzon) are pure fade material. AEK Larnaca, Khimik, Juventus Utena and Tartu Rock are under the radar teams worth looking at in the next round.

Kazan -7.5 - W
Jerusalem -2.5 - L
Munich -7 - L
Frankfurt -7 - W
Varese -8.5 - L
Trento -1 - W

Jan.27th: 3-3 (-0.16u)

Season: 193-175-3 (+3.51u)

My underdogs are not doing well - BUMS are 0-9 in L9.:beaten:
 
Euroleague: Crvena Zvezda +2.5 (1.97)

Crvena Zvezda venue is among toughest to play for visiting teams in whole Europe. Short list of good teams that already lost in Belgrade this season: Strasbourg, Real Madrid, Cibona, Khimki Moscow, Bayern Munchen, Unicaja Malaga. Kuban 76, Crvena Zvezda 79 (outright win). Crvena Zvezda +2.5 (B)

TBL: Toruń -4 (1.99)

Gdynia average age: 21.5, Toruń average age: 27.6. It will be men against boys type of game. Toruń is going to win in double digits - 64 to 77. Toruń -4 (B)

BUMS: Crvena Zvezda (2.25), Rouen (2.02)

Some leans (but no bet) - Over 151.5 in Pau/Paris game, Over 152.5 in Crvena/Kuban game, Malaga -2, Laboral Kutxa +8.

BOL
 
Parlay these 4:
Khimky M* -750 vs Zalgiris Kaunas
 Crvena Zvezda* +125 vs Lokomotiv Kuba
 Unicaja* -135 vs Anadolu Efes
 Panathinaikos* -500 vs Darussafaka
 
Toruń missed 6 free throws in 4Q (4 in last 90 seconds), this push tastes like a loss.

Toruń -4 - P
Crvena Zvezda +2.5 - W

Jan. 29th: 1-0-1 (+0.97u)

Season: 194-175-4 (+4.48u)
 
Pro A: Lyon/Strasbourg Over 143 (1.93)

Although those two teams have very good ORtg (around 110) there's still a small risk that we may not see 143 points on the scoreboard. Lyon is scoring 1.2 pps and is playing the on slowest pace in Pro A at 79.7. Lyon will not be afraid of Strasbourg though, it's a rivalry game and in the past Lyon had some big wins over Strasbourg. It will be a very intense, hopefully high scoring game. Lyon 77, Strasbourg 73 (B)

Pro A: Monaco +4.5 (1.96)

Monaco (13-5) is currently in the second place in Pro A standings and we're getting them as 4.5-point dog vs 5th place Nanterre. Monaco won first meeting with Nanterre by 2 (after an overtime). Both teams won 4 games in a row. Neutralizing Nanterre 3-point shot (9.6 three pointers made per game, 27.5 attempts on average) will be crucial for Monaco if they want to have a chance to win. Monaco 79, Nanterre 83. Monaco +4.5 (C)

A1: Lavrio/Nea Kifisia Over 149.5 (1.93)

Lavrio strengthened its roster and is now scoring 83.8 points on average in last 5 games. Nea Kifisia dropped 97 points on PAOK week ago. Nea Kifisia won first meeting 83:80. Nea Kifisia 80, Lavrio 86. Lavrio/Nea Kifisia Over 149.5 (B)

BUMS: Igokea (2.13), Strasbourg (2.69), Monaco (2.67), Dijon (2.17), Usak (2.29), Koszalin (2.01)

Early (sharp?) money was on: Igokea +3.5, Partizan +10, Ludwigsburg -6, Tubingen +5.5, Ostrów Wielkopolski +7.5, Kutno +1, Trikala +5.5, Dunkerque -5, Dijon +2, Limoges -12, Orleans +1, Haifa -3.5, Fuenlabrada -10.5, Zaragoza +5.5, Buyukcekmece -6.5, Yesilgiresun -2.5.

Looks like we have some true gems here worth checking. I like Kutno, Yesilgiresun, Le Mans, Andorra, Haifa. May add something later. BOL
 
Like I predicted - Nanterre made 9 3's and Monaco had no answer. Another bad day - a tactical foul and 2 free throws with 0:04 on the clock ruined my Monaco bet and turned 2-1 day into 1-2. January will be my first losing month this season unless I finish 4-0 tomorrow.

Lyon/Strasbourg O143 - W
Monaco +4.5 - L
Lavrio/Nea Kifisia O149.5 - L

Jan.30th: 1-2 (-1.07u)

Season: 195-177-4 (+3.41u)
 
ABA: Cedevita Zagreb -1 (1.94)

A year ago Cedevita was 4.5-point road favorite over Mega, won big and covered (55:81). Bookmakers were very generous making Cedevita 1-point dog for today game, sharp bettors quickly jumped on that. Cedevita is 4-1 SU in last 5 meetings with Mega. Home team will have a chance to win only if Cedevita players are rusty/fatigued after Thursday road game with Fenerbahce. Are they? Cedevita Zagreb -1. Cedevita -1 (A)

VTB: St.Petersburg -4.5 (1.95)

St. Petersburg is 5-0 SU in last 5 meetings with Riga. The smallest win margin was 5 points (St. Petersburg is favored by 4.5 point today). Riga is not playing well recently in VTB League - Enisey Krasnoyarsk crushed Latvians by 45 points. No need to overthink this. St. Petersburg -4.5 (B)

Lega A. Sassari +2.5 (1.99)

Both teams are struggling to find any consistency - Brindisi lost 4 in a row and Sardegna lost 3 in a row before a win vs Zaragoza in Eurocup on Wednesday. Enel is 2-5 ATS as home fave, Sassari is 6-3 ATS on the road in Lega A. Sassari +2.5 (C)

Lega A: Trento +3.5 (1.93)

Trento is 6-3 ATS as an underdog in Lega A. Pistoia is having good season but is just 3-3-2 ATS as home fave. Trento has slight advantage in some stat categories like offensive rebounds, steals and blocks. The 3.5 point Trento is getting may be enough to cover. Trento +3.5 (C)

ACB: Tenerife/Gran Canaria Under 154.5 (1.95)

Rivalry game between two teams from Canary Islands. Both meetings last season ended under the total of 148.5 and 156.5 points (79:64, 71:68). Expect the same today although Gran Canaria offense is greatly improved in comparison to previous season. Gran Canaria has Eurocup game scheduled at Strasbourg on Wednesday, home team will be looking to save some energy for later, so Tenerife at +9 may be the right play. Tenerife/Gran Canaria Under 154.5 (C)

BUMS: Bremerhaven (2.07), Sassari (2.36), Varese (2.29), Trento (2.40).
 
Cedevita -1 - L
St.Petersburg -4.5 - W
Sassari +2.5 - L
Trento +3.5 - W
Tenerife/Gran Canaria Under 154.5 - L

Jan 31st: 2-3 (-1.12u)

Season: 197-180-7 (+2.29u)
 
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Yes I'm aware that some of the teams I picked today already have qualified to next stage/round. I just can't pass on some spreads and hot teams.

Eurocup: Kazan -1 (1.95)

Kazan is 3-0 SU against Nizhny Novgorod in 2015. Kazan won 14 in a row.

Eurocup: Neptunas ML (1.95)

Neptunas 77, Aris 72.

Eurocup: Milano/Berlin Over 148.5 (1.95)

Milano 82, Berlin 76

FIBA Cup: Khimik +6 (1.94)

Khimik is 3-0 SU against Utena this season. Both teams have qualified to next round. Juventus 76, Khimik 74.

FIBA Cup: Frankfurt -1 (1.98)

Frankfurt won first meeting by 30. Frankfurt has already qualified and Radom is eliminated. The talent discrepancy is too big to expect Radom win. Frankfurt last road loss was at Bayreuth (December 23rd).

FIBA Cup: Chalon +6 (1.94)

Chalon 90, Cantu 80.

BUMS: Chalon (3.36), Khimik (3.21), Saratov (2.94), Gran Canaria (2.11)
 
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Kazan -1 - W
Neptunas ML - W
Milano/Berlin Over 148.5 - W
Khimik +6 - L
Frankfurt -1 - W
Chalon +6 - L

Feb.3rd: 4-2 (+1.83u)

Season: 201-182-7 (+4.12u)
 
I'm expecting over the total results in Zagreb/Panathinaikos game, Darussafaka/Crvena Zvezda and Malaga/Kuban.

Euroleague: Cedevita +4 (1.95)

Panathinaikos 76, Zagreb 78.

Euroleague: Crvena Zvezda +3.5 (1.94)

Crvena Zvezda 75, Darussafaka 78.
 
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