European basketball season 2015/2016

FIBA Europe Cup Round of 16 Play-Offs

The Round of 16 Play-Off match-ups are as follows:

ASVEL (FRA) v Port of Antwerp Giants (BEL)
BK Ventspils (LAT) v Maccabi Rand Media (ISR)
Turk Telekom (TUR) v Enisey Krasnoyarsk Territory (RUS)
Elan Chalon (FRA) v Telenet Oostende (BEL)
Energia Targu-Jiu (ROU) v Khimik Yuzhne (UKR)
Juventus Utena (LTU) v BC Cibona (CRO)
Fraport Skyliners (GER) v Petrolina AEK Larnaca (CYP)
Openjobmetis Varese (ITA) v Royal Hali Gaziantep (TUR)
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Euroleague: Khimki Moscow +4.5 (1.98)

Khimki is 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog in Euroleague. Olympiacos is 3-3-1 ATS as fave in EL. Olympiacos too inconsistent at the moment to trust them as favorite - 3 losses in January already (vs Bamberg, at Kaunas, at Madrid). Khimki is scoring 99 ppg in their last 6 games. Khimki Moscow +4.5 (C)

BBL: Hagen +4.5 (1.94)

Braunschweig is 1-5 ATS as home fave in Bundesliga. Hagen is 9-4 ATS as an underdog in BBL. Hagen won last meeting with Braunschweig by 13 points (on January 3rd). Hagen +4.5 (B)
 
BSL: Yesilgiresun +8 (1.91)

Yesilgiresun is 8-3 ATS as dog and 5-3 ATS as road dog in BSL. Contrarian play - public is on Besiktas (line for home team opened at -7.5). Yesilgiresun +8 (B)

BSL: Buyukcekmece -1.5 (1.93)

Istanbul is 2-5 ATS at home. Buyukcekmece is 5-2 ATS as road team in BSL. Contrarian play - public is on Istanbul (line for home team opened at +2.5). Buyukcekmece -1.5 (C)

BSL: Banvit -1 (1.92)

Trabzon lost 3 in a a row, scored just 43 points in cup game against Pinar at home on Tuesday. Trabzon played 8 games in last 30 days and 3 in last week of January. Too much basketball. Trabzon is 3-3-1 ATS at home in BSL. Banvit -1 (C)

PRO A: Limoges -4.5 (1.93)

Limoges is 5-3 SU and ATS since Dusko Vujasevic took over as head coach (in ProA and Eurocup). Paris is 3-6 ATS at home. Paris is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS since Antoine Rigadeau stepped down as Paris head coach and his assistant Fred Fauthaux took over. Limoges -4.5 (B)

TBL: Szczecin -1 (1.95)

Szczecin won last 3 meetings with Sopot straight up. Sopot lost its last 3 games in TBL. Szczecin is shooting the ball better (.445 to .389). Home team has worst offense in Polish league - scoring paltry 66 ppg (ranked 17th). Szczecin -1 (C)
 
utfootball4 said:
Why so many avg plays? Why not pick 2-3 A-B plays?
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First two plays - Yesilgiresun and Buyukcekmece - were contrarian plays, so they were quite risky by definition (one cashed, other no) and three other - all favorites on the road (also quite risky) but 2 of them hit (Limoges was a major disappointment). Last 30 days were not good for me (minus 4 units in January), so I'm very cautious rating my plays - don't want to harm anybody. Of course I want to hit them all but it's difficult - lots of trades recently in all European leagues. Struggling teams are shaking rosters, cutting underperforming players, some good teams are tired, stumble against weaker teams... Teams eliminated from the cups are often performing better because now have more time to run drills, do heavylifting, video analysis and so on. It's all confusing plus season's long grind has negative impact on me - a two week break would be awesome.

I'm 1-5 on my last 5 underdog picks, lol not good. Not that I'm surprised - at this stage of the season (February-April) some favorites in certain spots will be mercilessly crushing dogs no matter how many points they get from bookmakers (I noticed this regularity last season). It will be like that until play-offs start (with some exceptions).
 
Yesilgiresun +8 - L
Buyukcekmece -1.5 - W
Banvit -1 - W
Limoges -4.5 - L
Szczecin -1 - W

Feb. 6th: 3-2 (+0.80u)

Season: 203-187-7 (+2.86)
 
Here's my revenge on Cedevita which cost me two units recently. And all together lets pray for struggling Malaga and road dogs that couple of days ago looked dead.:prayer:prayer

ABA: Ljubljana +3 (1.94)

What a weird team Cedevita is - on January 21st won big game vs Anadolu Efes in Euroleague (84:80). It seemed that they are serious about competing in Euroleague TOP16 but then three luckluster losses came (at Fenerbahce, at Mitrovica and vs Panathinaikos at home). Cedevita is now pure fade material - Cedevita players seem tired, uninterested, not having interest at all in playing basketball or winning. Olimpija is not a great team but at least they compete - won 3 of 4 after 5 game losing stretch ended. Ljubljana +3 (B)

VTB: Saratov +9 (1.96)

Kuban is playing very well recently, clearly aiming at winning as many games in Euroleague as possible but this comes at expense - underperforming in VTB league during weekends (2-point win at Astana on Feb. 1st, 5-point win over Riga on Jan.11th). Saratov lost 5 in a row but finally broke out of loosing funk with road win over Hapoel Jerusalem. Kuban is very good as home fave (5-0 ATS in VTB) but Saratov is also good as a road team (5-2 ATS in VTB). Line for home team opened at -10, moved to -9. I must agree with the market. Saratov +9 (C)

ACB: Malaga -3.5 (1.92)

Malaga lost with Kuban in Euroleague on Thursday and that was Malaga's fourth loss in their last five games! I expect them to bounce back against Tenerife team that is just 2-6-1 ATS at home. Malaga won last 5 meetings with Tenerife. In 2015 Tenerife lost to Malaga at home as 5.5 dog by 18. Malaga -3.5 (C)

ACB: Joventud +5 (1.94)

Zaragoza is in three-team tie in Group N of Eurocup before final round of meetings that will take place on next Wednesday. Zaragoza, Sassari and Galatasaray all have 3 wins and a chance to advance. Today's meeting with Joventud is big lookahead spot for Zaragoza. Joventud won last four meetings with Zaragoza. Home team is 4-4 ATS at home and 2-3 ATS as home fave and is playing on shortened week (3-day rest). Joventud won 2 in a row and is rested (full week). Joventud +5 (A)

Lega A: Capo D'Orlando +11.5 (1.99)

Capo D'Orlando was very active on the market after team from Sicilia lost 8 in a row in December and first three weeks of January. Orlandina signed F Nankvil from VEF Riga and prospect F Stojanovic. Two wins followed immediately (vs Venezia, vs Bologna). Expect rejuvenated Orlandina to put up a fight against Reggio Emilia team that is still busy in Eurocup, competing in TOP32 stage. Huge lookahead spot for Reggio Emilia for whom next game on Wednesday at Pinar Karsiyaka may be the last in Eurocup (if they loose it). Capo D'Orlando +11.5 (A)

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More teams in lookahead spot before final round of Eurocup TOP32 to consider: Bilbao (big game ahead of them at Banvitspor; -4.5 home fave vs Murcia today), Zielona Góra (-17.5 fave vs Starogard before road game at Venezia), Galatasaray (+6.5 dog at Anadolu Efes and 3 days away from final game vs Sassari).

What's the situation of Valencia (eliminated or still having a chance? Valencia is playing with PAOK on Wednesday and is 2-point underdog at Vitoria today)
 
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utfootball4 said:
Rio Natura Monbus looks kinda good
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Number of home teams covering against the spread in Spanish ACB today: 6.
Number of road teams covering against the spread in Spanish ACB today: 3.

It happens too often for my taste and it's the main reason I dislike betting on ACB.
It reminds me of VTB League where the big spenders (=favs) always get the cake at expense of smaller clubs.
 
Joventud +5 - L
Malaga -3.5 - W
Saratov +9 - L
Capo D'Orlando +11.5 - W
Ljubljana +3 - L

Feb.7th: 2-3 (-1.09u)

Season: 204-190-7 (+1.77u)
 
utfootball4 said:
BC Khimky Moscow line says BC win.
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It's not that I try to overthink think this but its complicated - my numbers are saying Khimki outright, gsm is projecting this as CSKA by 2 (Khimki covers). Public is on CSKA (substantial line move). The problem is - its revenge spot for CSKA (2-point loss at Khimki on Dec.29th in Euroleague). CSKA won 4 of last 5 meetings with Khimki too. It's always very risky to bet against CSKA but the number is not small and Khimki has home court advantage (in theory - both teams share the same arena - supporters of both sides will present and active). Will the refs be so biased like the ones that whistled phantom calls in these teams recent Eroleague meeting?

I'm 0-6 in February betting on underdogs against Euroleague and Eurocup teams LOL (lost vs Panathinaikos, Olympiacos, Besiktas, Zaragoza, Kuban, Cedevita)...
 
VTB: Khimki Moscow +4.5 (1.95)

A1: PAOK +10.5 First Half (1.95)

ProA: Pau +6 (1.96)

BSL: Darussafaka +8.5 (1.91)

TBL: Koszalin +13.5 (1.91)
 
moneyprinter said:
It's not that I try to overthink think this but its complicated - my numbers are saying Khimki outright, gsm is projecting this as CSKA by 2 (Khimki covers). Public is on CSKA (substantial line move). The problem is - its revenge spot for CSKA (2-point loss at Khimki on Dec.29th in Euroleague). CSKA won 4 of last 5 meetings with Khimki too. It's always very risky to bet against CSKA but the number is not small and Khimki has home court advantage (in theory - both teams share the same arena - supporters of both sides will present and active). Will the refs be so biased like the ones that whistled phantom calls in these teams recent Eroleague meeting?

I'm 0-6 in February betting on underdogs against Euroleague and Eurocup teams LOL (lost vs Panathinaikos, Olympiacos, Besiktas, Zaragoza, Kuban, Cedevita)...
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Crazy line move, was 4.5 -200 then ml went up to 205 before dropping to 4-165. Over could be the best play.
 
After Monday I'm 1-8 in February betting against good teams in fave role.

Play-offs are starting in Baltic League. Lublin is a garbage team but they're getting 5 to 8 points more than usual when playing on the road, so I'm taking the shot. Radom is erratic at times.

Baltic League: Jekabpils -2.5 (1.97) (C)

Lega A: Pesaro +5.5 (1.95) (B)

TBL: Lublin +18.5 (1.95) (C)
 
Baltic League: Rakvere/Liepaja Under 156 (1.97)

Two teams with decent defense and mediocre offense. Liepaja is 1-4 O/U away in Baltic League, Rakvere is 3-3 O/U at home in Baltic League. It's a play-off game - teams are supposed to be playing D! Under 156 (B)

Baltic Legue - Jurmala +5.5 (1.96)

Lietkabelis is just 2-2 ATS as road fave, Jurmala 3-2 ATS as home dog. If Jurmala finds a way to slow down Lietkabelis productive offense they have a chance to cover. Playing on home court can only help them. Lietkabelis won regular season meeting with Jurmala at home by 10. Jurmala +5.5 (C)
 
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Eurocup: Milano/Aris Under 151 (1.95)

Aris is perfect 0-7 O/U in Eurocup when playing at Alexandreio. Milan is 0-2 O/U on the road in Eurocup. Milano/Aris Under 151 (A)

Eurocup: Nizhny Novgorod +8 (1.95)

Both Maccabi and N.Novgorod have a chance to advance, so it should be a close game. Maccabi, since David Blatt stepped down as head coach is having the worst season in recent club history. Club dumped Blatt successor and some players during the season but it didn't helped. Maccabi is 4-11 ATS in Euroleague and Eurocup combined. Nizhny Novgorod +8 (B)

Eurocup: PAOK +10 (1.91)

Limoges chances to advance to next Eurocup stage are slightly better than PAOK's - the French need to win, while the Greeks need to win at Limoges and Valencia to win at home with Oldenburg (probable). So it's a do or die situation for both teams and 10 points PAOK is getting today is a lot in Eurocup. PAOK won first meeting with Limoges easily by 13. Limoges is just 2-4 ATS at home and 0-2 ATS as fave in international cups. PAOK though is on very short 1-day rest after Monday game at Olymiacos. PAOK +10 (B)
 
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Weird results today - Milano and Aris were on 180 points pace at the half but the total landed on 151 and there was a rare draw result (88:88) in Jurmala/Lietkabelis matchup (winner of 2nd leg will advance in this pair). PAOK was 7/29 in 2pt FG% (24%).

Rakvere/Liepaja U156 - W
Jurmala +5.5 - W
Milano/Aris U151 - P
Nizhny Novgorod +8 - W
PAOK +10 - L

Feb.10th: 3-1-1 (+1.88u)

Season: 211-195-8 (+3.42u)
 
Eurocup Eightfinals confirmed - The Round of 16 will start on February 23

The Round of 16 Play-Off match-ups are as follows (best of two):

ALBA BERLIN VS BAYERN MUNICH
LIMOGES VS GRAN CANARIA
STRASBOURG VS OLDENBURG
BANVIT BANDIRMA VS EA7 MILANO
CAI ZARAGOZA VS DOLOMITI ENERGIA TRENTO
NIZHNY NOVGOROD VS ZENIT ST. PETERSBURG
STELMET ZIELONA GORA VS UNICS KAZAN
PINAR KARSIYAKA VS GALATASARAY ISTANBUL
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So we have German team vs German team, Russian team vs Russian team and Turkish team vs Turkish team, interesting from the gambling perspective but not from fan/sport pov.
 
Euroleague: Fenerbahce Team Total Over 80.5 (1.95)

Fenerbahce won 11 games in Euroleague and BSL in a row, whatever their problems were, they are resolved. Fenerbahce is scoring on average 87.3 pts in their last six Euroleague games. Malaga lost their last three games in Euroleague. Spanish team DRtg is at 110.5 (16th among all EL teams). Kuban, Efes, Real Madrid and Crvena Zvezda all scored +80 points recently against Malaga. Fenerbahce TT Over 80.5 (B)

TBL: Koszalin/Tarnobrzeg Over 153.5 (1.94)

Very low total - last four Koszalin-Tarnobrzeg meetings ended over the total of 150. In 2014/2015 sesason totals opened well above 160 and 170 points. Koszalin is 4-5 O/U at home, while Tarnobrzeg is 3-5 O/U on the road. Koszalin/Tarnobrzeg Over 153.5 (B)
 
utfootball4 said:
Why
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Last time Real played at Khimki Spaniards were favored and ml odds were at 1.85. For today's meeting ml opened at 2.50 an is now at 2.92 (+0.65 and +1.07 increase respectively). The spread opened at -3.5, is now -5. If the game was played on neutral venue it would be close to a pk. Is really +3.5 points worth +0.65 in the odds? I do believe there is some value here - Real although has some players injured is still a good team capable of winning on the road. And when we look at the standings we'll see that 5th place Real need this win badly (another loss will throw them to the bottom of the table, while a win can put them back in the play-off picture (3rd or 2nd place in Group F). Khimki lost its last two (vs CSKA, at Olympiacos) - maybe it's a sign of some problems that team has (like fatigue)...
 
I feel the opposite. 10-16-15 they played and the ml was -111 aka pk now same situation they are 225. Also RM defense really scares me vs a high power offense in a tough venue.. Don't care much about value, only winners.
 
Real won - it was my system play (BUMS). Khimki players looked like they were out of energy in the 2nd half. They really look tired, especially Shved and Dragic. Besides that Dragic and Koponen had only 5 points each, Davis 7. Real have made 14 threes on 41% and shoot 62% for 2.
 
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Fenerbahce half point loss meh..

Fenerbahce Team Total Over 80.5 - L
Koszalin/Tarnobrzeg Over 153.5 - W

Feb.11th: 1-1 (-0.06u)

Season: 212-196-8 (+3.36u)
 
I'm working on next season sheet (v3). I have some cool ideas to implement. I have been working on game module recently - the most important part of the sheet. I want to achieve two goals:

1. to automate process of inputing data as far as possible,
2. add new criteria/splits/math formulas helpful to gaining advantage over bookmakers.

Early version of module:



Anyway, I'm not good at excel and I need help with functions. I can send clean, full, working version when its done to everyone who help me with this.



The idea I have is - I want to manually input 4 numbers:

1. team A score
2. team B score
3. opening home team spread
4. total for game

That's it!

And I want my sheet to do couple of simple calculations after 1-4 are done:

a) substract team A score and team B score (B5)-(C5)
b) compare substracted number (D5) to spread (F5) (via logical or math function) and display: W for 'win', L - for 'loss', P - for 'push' in desired cell (F6)
c) add team A score (B5) to team B score (C5) and display the result in desired cell (E5)
d) compare the E5 number with game total (G5) (another function) and display: O for 'over', U for 'under' and P for 'push' (G6).

The ATS (F6) and O/U (G6) results will be part of other functions - so everything else could be automatically counted and displayed as betting trends via other functions.

As you can see I have done the simple part of task but my logical function/formula is not working properly. The main problem is function has to check out if favorite won and scored required amount of points and underdog won or lost and scored required amount of points.

Is this possible in excel? Can we do it in Google docs?

In my current version I do a lot of stuff manually which is time consuming.

In picture above I got logical function 'IF' in F6 (for ATS result) and G6 (for total result).
 
Euroleague: Kuban -9.5 (1.91)

Kuban is rolling - Russian team is 12-2 SU in their last 14 games in VTB League and Euroleague. Kuban is 5-2 ATS at home and 6-2 ATS as favorite in Euroleague. Darussafaka 3-4-1 ATS on the road and 2-4-1 ATS as away dog in Euroleague. Kuban is not afraid of Turkish teams - they won with Pinar by 19 as 9-point home favorite, won with Pinar by 10 as 4.5-point road favorite, won at home with Efes by 1 as 3.5-point favorite, lost by 6 at Fenerbahce as 6-point road dog. Fenerbahce crushed Darussafaka on Monday in BSL meeting by 20. The spread for Kuban-Darussafaka game may seem big but dd win is probable. It will require to bet against the public that is on Darussafaka side - line moved from -11.5 to -9.5. Kuban -9.5 (C)
 
Two strong plays on Cholet and Chalon.

ProA: Paris +1 (1.95)

Meeting of two struggling teams. Paris is 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS under new head coach. Rouen is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games. Rouen is not good as home fave (1-3 ATS in ProA). Public is on the Paris side after Paris surprisingly won over Limoges week ago. Paris +1 (C)

ProA: Cholet +4.5 (1.90)

Antibes is struggling after very good first two months in ProA. Club from Côte d'Azur is just 2-6 SU in L8 games and 1-4 ATS in their L5. Cholet is a silent killer of home favorites in French league -- a non-public team nobody bets on is 7-1 ATS in their L8 games (mostly as a dog)! Cholet is also 7-2 ATS on the road. Cholet +4.5 (A)

ProA: Chalon -3 (1.94)

Chalon is playing so well that couple of days ago coach Jean-Denys Choulet contract was extended to 2018. Chalon is 12-7 SU and ATS in ProA. Chalons-Reims is just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS in L8 games in ProA. Chalon -3 (A)
 
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nbafan88 said:
How do you see what the public is on? Website?
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Go to cappedin.com click on selected game, there will be a chart with the line movement (spread, totals). Unfortunately there's no website like sportsinsights.com for european basketball showing exact % of the bets on each team but in Kuban/Darussafaka game I'm pretty sure the general public is on Darussafaka side.
 
Here is my little rant after Darussafaka second in a row +20 point loss to Euroleague team in a week. Why to hell Jordi Bartolomeu has invited this garbage team to next year Euroleague (a league that will be reduced to 16 teams)? Besides of $$$ they are bringing in I see no reason to have Darussafaka in shrinked Euroleague while 54 mil French market will have only 1 team and 56 mil German market will also have only 1 team. 2016/2017 16-team Euroleague will have 3 teams located in Istanbul and 2 in Moscow. WTF is this? Nobody in France, Spain, Italy and Germany will watch games between those clubs. Nobody cares, nobody...

In my opinion creation of FIBA Basketball Champions League will lead to marginalization of Eurocup which I find more entertaining from the viewer perspective. Eurocup is also the easiest way to make money betting on euro bb, easier than Euoleague or FIBA Cup.

btw - great piece (1st in a series of articles dedicated to problems of european basketball) is on ballineurope.com - worth reading.
 
3-1 not bad, Antibes Sharks showed to play though. Saturday card coming in couple of hours.

Kuban -9.5 - W
Paris +1 - W
Cholet +4.5 - L
Chalon -3 - W

Feb.12th: 3-1 (+1.80u)

Season: 215-197-8 (+5.16u)
 
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