European basketball season 2015/2016

Basketball is a team game. Team Offensive Rating means more from the handicapper perspective than than player X or Y scoring 21 points per game on average. Personally I don't care who's on the roster - bunch of no names can put numbers better than a starting five full of ex-NBA players just by playing harder on both ends of the floor. That's why I often pick teams like Nikisic or Sentjur. Nobody likes to be embarrassed in front of thousands of spectators and for players on weaker teams a game against superior team is always a great occasion for showcasing their skills and fight for the bigger contract, better job, more recognition... Fenerbahce started the season 0-3-1 ATS and it looked like this team was a complete bust but they fixed their problems in November and December and are reliable now. But the bettors who jumped on the bandwagon right after hearing info of signing Antic, Vesely and Datome paid the price. I'm not anti Fenerbahce, I like some of the guys on the team but I in case of powerhouse teams it's always more profitable to be on the bookie side against the public even if this means occasionally losing a bet or two.

Big teams are always worth looking at as a fade material, not because they are bad squads but bc the numbers the bookmakers are putting on the board are always inadequate.

Some strong trends from 2014/2015 season:

Real Madrid 4-13 ATS in away games in ACB (76%)
Barcelona 5-12 ATS in away games in ACB (70%)
Valencia 5-12 ATS in away games in ACB (70%)
Malaga 5-12 ATS at home in ACB (70%)

Anadolu Efes 5-10 ATS at home in BSL (66%)
Fenerbahce 5-10 ATS at home in BSL (66%)
Galatasaray 4-11 ATS at home (73%)

A bettor playing with the bookie against the public would have post 49-19 record simply by fading the 4 biggest clubs in Liga Endesa in certain situations and would have won +25.1 units. He will need only 68 bets to win 25 units. That's 72% winning record.
A bettor playing with the bookie against the public would have post 31-14 record simply by fading 3 biggest clubs in Turkish league when they played at home and would have won +13.9 units. He will need only 44 bets to win 14 units. That's 70% winning record.


This rule applies to every league in Europe. One day I will scan and post online my hand written notes I made during the summer after last season ended. After reviewing my data I was shocked how many strong trends existed. The only problem is: we don't know which teams will be profitable when next season kicks off and what kind of trends/situations will be in play for selected teams. I'm pretty sure last years trends are worthless now as each season is different.
 
Very entertaining games with 2 underdogs winning outright.

Kuban +6.5 - W
Crvena Zvezda +8 - W
Yesilgiresun +10 - W

Jan. 14th: 3-0 (+2.87u)

Season: 170-153-2 (+3.85u)
 
Very interesting approach mate... not sure I agree, but something worth thinking about.

You are saying that bookies take positions more often in Europe than in the NBA and if you manage to notice their positions and simply play with them, against the public - you will be in profit (and it's hard to argue with that). The main question though - are bookies taking position often in European leagues and cups...
 
divol said:
Very interesting approach mate... not sure I agree, but something worth thinking about.

You are saying that bookies take positions more often in Europe than in the NBA and if you manage to notice their positions and simply play with them, against the public - you will be in profit (and it's hard to argue with that). The main question though - are bookies taking position often in European leagues and cups...
Click to expand...

More often in domestic leagues than in cups but Euroleague may serve as example of cup competition in which bookies use this strategy also because majority of teams are big, public teams that will be heavily bet across continent (Real, Barca, CSKA, Khimki, Panthinaikos, Maccabi, all big Turkish teams, basically every team that has budget bigger than 10-15 mil €).

Leagues should be the first target for trend oriented bettors though. This statement applies also to small leagues like Baltic league, Adriatic, Polish, Belgian, Lithuanian, Czech, Ukrainian (awesome before war with Russia, collapsed since then).

In european cups its more complicated, also for books because they struggle to put strict numbers on some games. When a 2 teams that play in different leagues and NEVER played in history are meeting for the first time in Euroleague or Eurocup there's no point of reference. If those teams had different, incomparable strengths of schedule it's even more complicated, not to speak about different sport level of their respective domestic leagues. In current season Bayern was +15 dog at Madrid, +13.5 dog at Khimki, Sassari (reigning Italian champion) was a +21.5 dog at CSKA, Bamberg (reigning German champion with vastly improved roster) was +16.5 dog at CSKA and +10 dog at Malaga, Crvena Zvezda (ABA champion) was +9.5 dog at Munich. All those spreads are examples of phony numbers put up against public teams - every of those underdogs cover, some easily. Bookies don't have anything except their greed, they are guessing the numbers like the bettors and are putting SOFT LINES that are pounded overnight - you can check it on Pinnacle. But bookies are also cunning. Bookies cover potential loses by making key public teams records against the spread EVEN.

Let's say a hot, undervalued team starts season 4-1 ATS at home like Usak did this year, bettors will finally notice Usak is covering at home and as soon as books start losing, they adjust the lines which is understandable - Usak is playing well, so let's increase the number from -3.5 to -4.5 and so on. That's the moment when trends even because Usak is what it is and they fail to cover in their 6th home game against Yesilgiresun, so their record against the number is 4-2 and in a couple of weeks it will be 5-5 or 6-5 or 7-8 and so on. The juice will eat up bettors winnings. Same old story every year. The only records that don't change are the small, non-public teams, often playing in small leagues that nobody bet on except pro bettors, gambling degenerates, local fans and basketball maniacs. Bookies don't care about those teams unless they don't loose too much money because of them. But once they take notice better be careful...

After looking at the trends in my database I noticed one thing -- the team main record after full season will look balanced like 17-17 ATS overall so after first look it will not have much value for a bettor but after looking deeper - at various SPLITS like home/road, fave/dog against teams with winning records/against the teams with losing records, after SU win/ after SU loss it is UNBALANCED. Thats the place when a bettor is finding VALUE and is able to actually predict/guess the most possible OUTCOME. If the team is in additional spot (schedule, rivalry, revenge, letdown after big win, lookahead before important game, bounce-back after big loss, head coach change, player transfer), the patterns (like teams overperforming or underperforming in certain spots) are repetitive and form structures that are known as TRENDS. It is possible also because majority of the teams have the same STYLE OF PLAY ie. Gran Canaria, Aris and Frankfurt play grit & grind, while Avtodor and Bayern Munich like to run the floor, PAOK loves to play slower half-court methodic offense and so on. Thats why I was pretty sure Crvena will cover at Panathinaikos today as +8 point dog like they did a year ago (Panathinaikos won 74:69 but did not cover as -9.5 fave). Their playing styles match-up well. Next year (assuming the clubs will meet again in Euroleague the spread will be around 7 or 6 points not 8 or 9 - bookies will try to even the trend, surprise bettors and win some money).

Of course it's all theory of gambling and it's always easier to say than to actually win.
 
Last edited:
BBL: Mitteldeutscher +16.5 (1.91)

Overinflated line. Wurzburg 81, Mittelduetscher 69.

Euroleague: Khimki -7 (1.98)

Khimki 98, Laboral Kutxa 89. Over 167.5 is probably better option than betting on spread but I don't like to bet on such a big number.

Euroleague: Bamberg +8 (1.93)

A loss can push back Bamberg to 6th or 7th place in Group F.

Euroleague: Olympiacos/Bambeg Over 146.5 (1.94)

Bamberg offensive numbers in EL: eFG%.569 (2nd), PPS 1.4 (2nd), ORtg 115.4 (3rd), Total S% 166.9 (2nd).

---

BUMS: Igokea (2.34), Nancy (2.35), Bamberg (4.30).
 
Great write up and explanation mate! I agree partially with what you're saying. It's known that public likes favorites and books know it. Furthermore, setting the lines, books should think about SU parlays as well. If you set clear favorites (CSKA, Real and Barcelona at home for example) as -8 favorites, as ML parlay, it will be about even money and a lot of the public will be on it.
But... Israeli league for example - the odds and the lines are often way off... Those small leagues like Israel, Finland, Denmark and so on... bookies set very low maximum bet and just waiting for public to make it right... I don't think they overinflate the lines intentionally. Obviously Jerusalem and Maccabi get big lines, but many times, for a very good reason as well...
 
Played Rishon +9 against Jerusalem. Just absolutely wrong and horrible line by the bookies. Rishon can easily win this one SU...
 
Big sweep.:money:

Mitteldeutscher +16.5 - W
Khimki -7 - W
Bamberg +8 - W
Olympiacos/Bambeg Over 146.5 - W

Jan 15th: 4-0 (+3.76u)

Season: 174-153-2 (+7.61u)

---

BUMS: 3-0 (+6.99u)
 
Be caruful when tailing, some of the picks are quite risky. Always shop for the best lines - PAOK opened as -1.5 fave, Retymno was +4.5 underdog.

A1: PAOK -2.5 (1.99)

Revenge game for PAOK. PAOK won 6 straight with AEK before team from Athens beat PAOK at home on October 10th. (C)

A1: AGOR Rethymno +3.5 (1.99)

Rethymno is dominating Apollon in recent years. Getting veteran G Delinikaits should help the team from Crete cover on the road. (C)

LKL: Nevezis +8.5 (1.96)

Pieno Zveigzdas is just 2 days away from an overtime win over Rovinari in FIBA Cup. Nevezis is 5-3 ATS as road dog in LKL. (C)

LKL: Lietkabelis +6.5 (1.93)

Fading Neptunas after big Eurocp win over ALBA Berlin. Klaipeda is 2-7 ATS at home in LKL. Lietkabelis is 11-2 SU since the beginning of December in LKL and Baltic League. (C)

Pro A: Chalon -2.5 (1.96)

Letdown spot for Nanterre after huge, 32-point win over Strasbourg. Chalon is 4-1 ATS as home fave, Nanterre is 3-5 ATS on the road in Pro A. (B)

Scoore League: Limburg -7.5 (1.92)

Leuven is just 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS in Scoore League. They have lost their last 6 games (some by really big margin). Limburg is 4-2 ATS on the road. (C)
 
Last edited:
That was terrible. It ended up 12 only, but it was 20 points for 2.5 quarters. Honestly have no idea why Rishon looked that bad...
It was one of the bets I felt the most sure about for a long time. I thought Rishon would win it SU or keep it really close. Shocked I was that off...
 
divol said:
That was terrible. It ended up 12 only, but it was 20 points for 2.5 quarters. Honestly have no idea why Rishon looked that bad...
It was one of the bets I felt the most sure about for a long time. I thought Rishon would win it SU or keep it really close. Shocked I was that off...
Click to expand...

Rishon form is up and down in January - nice wins over Lyon and Bnei but also loss to Holon, not to speak about Kataja game in which they were loosing.

H. Jerusalem after the game with Rishon is 7-0 ATS as home favorite (in Israeli league). You were betting against one of the best home teams in Israeli league (if not the best). BTW Maccabi Tel Aviv is 6-2 ATS as home favorite. I should have warn you earlier.
 
Regress (not that I wasn't expecting that...).

PAOK -2.5 - W
AGOR Rethymno +3.5 - L
Nevezis +8.5 - L
Lietkabelis +6.5 - W
Chalon -2.5 - L
Limburg -7.5 - L

Jan.16th: 2-4 (-2.08u)

Season: 176-157-2 (+5.61u)
 
No write-ups, sorry.

Lega A:Varese +5 (1.98)
A1: Aris +13 (1.98)
BBL: Ulm +1 (1.95)
ACB: Manresa/Bilbao Over 153.5 (1.98)
Torino +14 (1.95)

BUMS: Varese (2.99), Sassari (2.27), Pärnu (2.76), Nes Ziona (2.27).
 
moneyprinter said:
Rishon form is up and down in January - nice wins over Lyon and Bnei but also loss to Holon, not to speak about Kataja game in which they were loosing.

H. Jerusalem after the game with Rishon is 7-0 ATS as home favorite (in Israeli league). You were betting against one of the best home teams in Israeli league (if not the best). BTW Maccabi Tel Aviv is 6-2 ATS as home favorite. I should have warn you earlier.
Click to expand...

I know their record (but lost the cup game - the one that really matters) - bit still... Rishon actually pretty easy to figure out. I was fading them in Holon and it was obvious they will get a split with Herzlia, playing them in the league and then in the cup. Palmer was a great addition to the team, while Ben Shimol's injury is not that important, when you got so many good Israelis on the roster and Hanochi with Gut that can play his minutes at guard position.
They started the game well and Jerusalem usually either starts the game on fire in the league or struggles the entire game. But suddenly, Jerusalem had good stretch on defense, Rishon lost all of their confidence and refs made 3 - 4 phantom calls on them it was 26 points between them...
 
What is going on with Aris, first that horrible game with Milano then this...

Varese +5 - W
Aris +13 - L
Ulm +1 - W
Manresa/Bilbao Over 153.5 - L
Torino +14 - W

Jan.17th: 3-2 (+0.88u)

Season: 179-159-2 (+6.49u)

BUMS finish 2-2 with 2 games lost by 1 point (it could have been sweep).

Will skip tomorrow Olympiacos game and post some picks an hour before the start of TTU/Atyrau game. I need a break.
 
Lega A: Pesaro/Avellino Under 152 (1.92)

Pesaro 2-5 O/U and 4-11 O/U overall in Lega A. Avellino is 3-3 O/U in away games in Lega A. Pesaro ORtg 97.9, Avellino ORtg 101.7. Projected score: Pesaro 74, Avellino 73. (C)

BSL: Konyaspor +14.5 (1.99)

Efes is 0-5 ATS as home fave in Turkish league. Line should be -9.5 not -14.5. Value is on the Konyaspor side. Konyaspor is 4-2 ATS as road dog in Turkey. Lookahead spot for Efes before Thursday game with Cedevita Zagreb in Euroleague. Efes 83, Konyaspor 74. (B)

Winner: Kiryat Gat +3 (1.91)

Wrong team favored supposedly. Projected score: Kiryat Gat: 80, Ir. Nahariya 72. Kiryat Gat is 4-3 ATS at home, Nahariya is 0-3 ATS as fave in Winner League. (C)

Winner: Bnei Hertzeliya +5.5 (2.01)

Bnei won last 4 meetings with Haifa. Haifa is 4-2-1 as home fave in Israeli league. Bnei is 4-3 ATS as away dog. Haifa 79, Bnei 76. (C)

BUMS coming in a moment...
 
Last edited:
Agree with both plays in Israel. Played them both small. Don't see a lot of value in the games, but small value no doubt is in both dogs...
 
divol said:
Agree with both plays in Israel. Played them both small. Don't see a lot of value in the games, but small value no doubt is in both dogs...
Click to expand...

Good to know. I think Under 155.5 in Haifa game is very probable. O/U in Haifa home games is 1-8 up to date.
 
Haifa is Grit and Grind team. The Memphis Grizzlies of Israel :)

But I hate betting U/O in Israel. Overall, Israel is known as a league that is loved by foreign players, because it inflates their stats before going to the next stop in Europe, but Haifa is different.

Eilat with Katash, ex Hapoel TA, who was fired this season, will be in TA tonight... should be interesting...
 
divol said:
Haifa is Grit and Grind team. The Memphis Grizzlies of Israel :)

But I hate betting U/O in Israel. Overall, Israel is known as a league that is loved by foreign players, because it inflates their stats before going to the next stop in Europe, but Haifa is different.
Click to expand...

Yes, I noticed this. I have an eye for this kind of teams no matter in which league they are playing. Easy to bet on them also.
 
When a team is yielding 100, 98, 88 points generally it means the players didn't show up.

Pesaro/Avellino Under 152 - L
Konyaspor +14.5 - L
Kiryat Gat +3 - L
Bnei Hertzeliya +5.5 - L

Jan 18th: 0-4 (-4.00u)

Season: 179-163-2 (+2.49u)
 
Tough luck in Hertzeliya... Crowford drained a three with a buzzer to send the game to OT, going coast to coast. Haifa tried to foul him (and there was half court violation).

Eilat won easily as was expected.

Good luck today!
 
[TABLE="width: 574"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 574"] BK Valmiera vs BC Lietkabelis interesting game.....[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
utfootball4 said:
[TABLE="width: 574"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 574"] BK Valmiera vs BC Lietkabelis interesting game.....[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Click to expand...

Crazy line movement - Valmiera opened as -1.5 fave, now is +3.5 dog. People are jumping on that Lietkabelis bandwagon but this team is only 2-2 ATS as road favorite in Baltic League (and 2-7 ATS as road team in Lithuanian LKL...). Lietkabelis has the best ORtg in Baltic League (117.9) and is scoring 1.5 pps but Valmiera is just behind Lietkabelis in DRtg. Tough call. Value gone.. as +1.5 dog Lietkabelis could have been an option.
 
moneyprinter said:
Crazy line movement - Valmiera opened as -1.5 fave, now is +3.5 dog. People are jumping on that Lietkabelis bandwagon but this team is only 2-2 ATS as road favorite in Baltic League (and 2-7 ATS as road team in Lithuanian LKL...). Lietkabelis has the best ORtg in Baltic League (117.9) and is scoring 1.5 pps but Valmiera is just behind Lietkabelis in DRtg. Tough call. Value gone.. as +1.5 dog Lietkabelis could have been an option.
Click to expand...

Im rolling with home dog ml. They closed at +4 145 ml in the final seconds.
 
Valencia's 30-game win streak finally comes to an end with an unexpected loss at home to Limoges.

Antwerp +3.5 - W
ALBA Berlin/Aris Under 147.5 - L
Limoges +17 - W

Jan 19th: 2-1 (+0.85u)

Season: 181-164-2 (+3.34u)

BUMS: 2-0 (+3.24u)

 
Lots of interesting games today but I'm limiting myself to 4 because I'm already on over 100 bets pace in January.

Baltic League: Jekabpils +3.5 (1.92)

Jekabpils is 4-2 ATS at home in Baltic league. Jekabpils won with Liepaja 4 days ago in LBL 90:88 (OT).

Eurocup: Kazan +4.5 (1.94)

Kazan is 5-0 ATS as an underdog in Eurocup and VTB combined.

FIBA Cup: Pieno/Le Havre Over 163.5 (1.96)

Both Le Havre and Pieno have very good ORtg and horrible DRtg which should result in an over.

Eurocup: H.Jerusalem/Strasbourg Over 157 (1.92)

Like above, both teams have DRtg & ORtg around 110. It will be a high scoring game.


BUMS: Reggio Emilia (2,59), Kazan (2,77), Cantu (2,20), Varese (2,76).
 
Jekabpils +3.5 - W
Kazan +4.5 - W
Pieno/Le Havre Over 163.5 - W
H.Jerusalem/Strasbourg Over 157 - L

Jan. 20th: 3-1 (+1.82u)

Season: 184-165-2 (+5.15u)

BUMS: 2-2 (+1.53u)
 
What a game in Vitoria. There was blood all over the court. It was awhile since a watched two teams playing so hard.

Missing De Colo certainly hurt CSKA. This is a deep team but only 2 players (Kulagin, Vorontsevitch) had positive +/- rating. Waiting for that scene to appear on YouTube when Teodosic tried to kill French ref with his deadly stare :rofl: It will be a classic.


Madrid/Barcelona Over 166.5 - W

Jan. 21st: 1-0 (+0.92u)

Season: 185-165-2 (+6.04u)
 
Euroleague: Olympiacos TT O75 (1.94)

Bounce back game for Olympiacos after home loss to Brose. Olympiacos rarely gets embarrassed on the road. The Greeks will be well prepared which means they will score. Zalgiris has bad 109.6 DRtg in Euroleague which may make things easier for Olympiacos. Zalgiris is also 0-3 ATS as home dog in Euroleague. Signing ex-NBA player F Papanikolau should positively impact Olympiacos morale. Pireus is scoring 82,5 points on average on the road in Euroleague. (B)

Euroleague: Bamberg +6 (1.96)

Bamberg is 6-1 ATS on the road and 6-2 against the number as an underdog in Euroleague (5-1 ATS as away dog). Khimki Moscow is 4-4 ATS as fave in Euroleague. (C)
 
Saras really so far does a very nice job with Zalgiris. Lost, but in a battle in Madrid, now trashed Oly...
 
LKL: Juventus -1.5 (1.92)
A1: Apollon +4.5 (1.95)
BBL: Braunschweig +7.5 (1.95)

BUMS: Apollon (2.76), Avellino (2.09).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top