European basketball season 2015/2016

Bakken Bears +6 (1.95)
Gran Canaria -6.5 (1.92)
Trabzon +6.5 (1.93)
Chalon +2.5 (1.99)
Oostende -9.5 (1.99)
Bilbao -3 (1.94)

write-up's coming soon
 
Chalon won outright and we are 1-0 today. Here are my FIBA Cup picks.

FIBA CUP: Bakken Bears +6 (1.95)

Bakken impressed in first round of FIBA Europe Cup by winning its first five games in some style. Bakken defeated Nymburk (VTB League team) and Tajfun Sentjur (ABA team) twice - at home and on the road, which proves that Bakken is a legit team. The key to Bakken success in European cups is defence (90.7 DRtg). Juventus won just 3 games in first stage. Although Lithuanians have posted 3-0 ATS record as favorites it was achieved against lesser opponents (Engomi - twice and Tartu/Rock). Bakken +6 (B)

FIBA CUP: Oostende -9.5 (1.99)

Śląsk Wrocław have resolved the contracts of 5 US players after the team won just 2 games in Polish league in the autumn. That decision left the club with basically 3 legit players - F Williams, C Kovalenko and veteran G Chanas. The rest of the Wrocław roster consists of players that have played in lower leagues and 19-20 years old kids with zero international experience. The club did not sign any replacement players yet. Oostende will bring its 114.6 ORtg against Wrocław DRtg of 110.3. This should be a double digit win for Oostende. Let's hope the Oostende players will show up for this. Oostende -9.5 (B)
 
Eurocup: Bilbao -3 (1.94)

Bilbao is having some issues with winning in Spanish ACB but in Eurocup its another story - Bilbao is on 6-game win streak and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Eurocup. Bilbao won rather easily with other German teams - Bonn (twice) and Oldenburg (twice) and the same should be expected against Ulm. Bilbao is 3-0 ATS as road fave in Eurocup. Ulm's DRtg of 110.0 is not going to stop them. Bilbao -3 (C)

Eurocup: Trabzon +6.5 (1.93)

The last four meetings between Trabzon and Pinar were decided by 3, 4, 2 and 4 points. This is a rivalry game and another low scoring, close game is expected. Pinar is 2-5 ATS at home in Turkish BSL. Trabzon is 4-1-1 ATS in BSL as road underdog. Trabzon +6.5 (C)

Eurocup: Gran Canaria -6.5 (1.92)

Gran Canaria is a typical home court team. The Spaniards were 4-1 ATS in home games in the first stage of Eurocup and 6-2 ATS as favorites (excellent 8-2 ATS overall). Strasbourg fans had great hopes for this season but the team was a major disappointment in Euroleague (3-7 SU, 2-9 ATS), finishing 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games. Strasbourg was also 0-5 ATS as road underdog. Now Strasbourg will continue its struggle in Eurocup against a teams that often have budgets and players no worse than their own. Gran Canaria -6.5 (C)
 
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Plays that didn't made my card but are worth looking at:

Gussing +10 (was +11.5)
Nymburk/Lukoil Under 159 (was 161.5)
Frankfurt +4 (was +5)
Rovinari -3
Krka +3.5

(all in FIBA Cup)
 
moneyprinter said:
Sodertalje DRtg 111.8 (horrible)
Radom DRtg 102.1 now (was under 100 some time ago).

Radom also has an advantage in ORtg (112 to 105). Sodertalje may win this game as they are good at home but I like Radom bc of defence.
Click to expand...


I never look into stats trends or lineups esp with this overseas shit... Looking into finland league right now.
 
utfootball4 said:
I never look into stats trends or lineups esp with this overseas shit... Looking into finland league right now.
Click to expand...

I dont't care about lineups too, actually I don't even know who's the leading scorer is for each team. I look at TEAMS ADVANCED STATS, I'm looking at the opponents each team had played (strenght of schedule), numbers the oddsmakers posted on the board, then I compare this data with my numbers and trends and bet accordingly.

This Sodertalje team was favored only 2 times in FIBA Cup (1-1 ATS) and in both cases against teams much weaker than Radom team that is playing hard and disciplined basketball.

I tend to fade young (22.8 yrs/avg) and short (195cm//6'5'' avg) teams in a matchup vs taller (197//6'6'') and older (27) teams.
 
moneyprinter said:
I dont't care about lineups too, actually I don't even know who's the leading scorer is for each team. I look at TEAMS ADVANCED STATS, I'm looking at the opponents each team had played (strenght of schedule), numbers the oddsmakers posted on the board, then I compare this data with my numbers and trends and bet accordingly.

This Sodertalje team was favored only 2 times in FIBA Cup (1-1 ATS) and in both cases against teams much weaker than Radom team that is playing hard and disciplined basketball.

I tend to fade young (22.8 yrs/avg) and short (195cm//6'5'' avg) teams in a matchup vs taller (197//6'6'') and older (27) teams.
Click to expand...


Major line major line movement from +1 to -2.5...
 
last group of games i kinda like [TABLE="width: 84"]
<colgroup><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]trento[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]alba[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]reyer[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Another bad day. Trabzon will become soon my favorite team to fade. I can't stand the dumb style of basketball they are playing. And the Danish Bears... well they probably had eaten too much honey during the holidays :enraged:

Bakken Bears +6 - L
Oostende -9.5 - W
Bilbao -3 - W
Trabzon +6.5 - L
Gran Canaria -6.5 - L

Jan.6th: 2-3 (-1.07u)

Season: 155-138-2 (+4.52)

BUMS: 1-3 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YdFAyF940gfyctP0Y-KKRxCQ_HLZR2WNtZcLV2rh1Lc/edit#gid=0
 
Euroleague: Real Madrid +8 (1.98)

In 2015/2016 season only Malaga won at CSKA Moscow court and only 2 other teams (Sassari and Bamberg) lost by less than 8 points (both those teams have lost exactly by 6 points and covered against the spread). Real Madrid, although weakened by injuries (G Fernandez, F Llull) is still a strong team, stronger than Sassari or Bamberg. Rarely a powerhouse team gets so many points but we should remember that CSKA Moscow will be looking to bounce back strongly after an egg they have laid down against the local rival Khimki. Status of C Vorontschevitch who plays for the home team is unknown (he did not play in his team last two games). Madrid +8 (B)

TBL: Szczecin/Starogard Gdański Under 155.5 (1.94)

Both Starogard and Szczecin are very mediocre on offense - Szczecin posted 105.2 ORtg and .499 eFG%, while Starogard posted 96.4 ORtg and .445 eFG%. Both teams are also in the middle of the pack in Polish TBL in pace (ranked 10th and 8th respectively). The total stayed under the total in Starogard's last 3 games. The total of 155.5 seems too big, all we need to win an under bet here is one low scoring quarter, which is probable when these two teams are meeting together. Under 155.5 (B)
 
Real is a trainwreck at the moment. Random 3 point shot 15 seconds before the end of the game ruined my under bet In TBL.

Real Madrid +8 - L
Szczecin/Starogard Gdański Under 155.5 L

Jan7th: 0-2 (-2.00u)

Season: 155-140-2 (+2.52u)

No BUMS yesterday.
 
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I'm not feeling good about those picks, I will probably finish 0-2.

Euroleague: Crvena Zvezda/Fenerbahce Over 154 (1.99)

Crvena Zvezda is 4-1 ATS in Euroleague at home and 2-1 ATS as home dog. During this season Belgrade already won with some really good teams (Real Madrid, Khimki and Bayern Munich). At home Crvena is tough to beat and Serbs will find the ways to score against this Fenerbahce team that sometimes has tendency to play softly on defense. Crvena is scoring 94 ppg in their last 3 home games in Euroleague but has bad 111.7 DRtg. Over 154 (C)

Euroleague: Brose Bamberg/Zalgiris Kaunas Over 150 (1.97)

The Euroleague trends are indicating an under type of game in Bamberg as the home team went 2-3 O/U as home team and Zalgiris finished first round 1-2-1 O/U as road dog. Bamberg is scoring 86 ppg at home in Euroleague, while Kaunas is scoring 66 ppg on the road. Kaunas low number may be misleading as Lithuanians have played mostly with low tempo & good defense teams (Karsiyaka, Kuban, Zielona Góra, Panathinaikos). Bamberg tough is playing completely different brand of basketball - very effective, high octane type of offense (DRtg 112.5), so if Zalgiris gets to 70 points, an over should hit. Bamberg/Zalgiris Over 150 (C)
 
One point loss, yes sure, why not?!:Angry6:

Crvena Zvezda/Fenerbahce O154 - L
Bamberg/Kaunas O150 - W

Jan. 8th: 1-1 (-0.03u)

Season: 156-141-2 (+2.49u)
 
A1: Aris Thessaloniki -4.5 (1.97)

Aris is 10-3 ATS in Greek A1. Line of -3.5 should be considered as a gift. (B)

A1: Trikala +4.5 (1.97)

Apollon is 1-3 ATS as home favorite, Trikala is 4-2 ATS as road underdog. Wrong team favored - Apollon 74, Trikala 76. (A)

BSL: Ankara Kolejliler -3 (1.95)

Gaziantep is on 2-day rest versus a team that is 5-2 ATS at home. (C)

ProA: Monaco -6 (1.91)

Team on 4-game losing streak and 2-day rest vs a team on 14-day rest. (B)

ProA: Dunkerque +1.5 (1.98)

Limoges head coach Philippe Herve resigned on Thursday after a loss to Oldenburg in Eurocup. Gravelines are 10-5 ATS in ProA. (C)

TBL: Dąbrowa Górnicza +14.5 (1.95)

Zielona Góra is 3 days after tough Eurocup road game at Ludwigsburg. Home team in letdown spot. (C)
 
First 1-5 day since the beginning.

Aris -4.5 - L
Trikala +4.5 - L
Kolejliler -3 - W
Monaco -6 - L
Dunkerque +1.5 - L
Dąbrowa Górnicza +14.5 - L

Jan. 9th: 1-5 (-4.05u)

Season: 157-146-2 (-1.56u)
 
ABA: Sutjeska Nikisic +7.5 (1.95)

VTB: Saratov +10 (1.96)

ACB: Bilbao +2.5 (2.01)

BSL: Yesilgiresun +10 (1.91)

BSL: Konyaspor +2.5 (1.97)

Baltic League: Jekabpils -1.5 (1.94)

---

BUMS: Bilbao (2.20), Konyaspor (2.22)
 
It would be a 5-1 day if only Konyaspor covered (half point loss).

Jekabpils -1.5 - W
Bilbao +2.5 - W
Saratov +10 - L
Konyaspor +2.5 - L
Yesilgiresun +10 - W
Nikisic +7.5 - W

Jan 10th: 4-2 (+1.81u)

Season: 161-148-2 (+0.25u)

BUMS: 1-1 (+0.20u)
 
Eurocup: Neptunas Klaipeda +3.5 (1.96)

Neptunas will be looking to even its record with win over ALBA Berlin. Neptunas is 3-1-1 ATS at home in Eurocup.

Eurocup: Trento +4.5 (1.94)

Trento is 3-1 ATS as away dog in Eurocup.

Eurocup: Bilbao -6 (1.92)

Banvit was 1-4 ATS on the road in the first round of Eurocup.

Eurocup: Saratov +3.5 (1.97)

Saratov is 3-0 ATS as road dog in the 1st round of Eurocup. Strasbourg can't find any consistemcy - after big road win over Gran Canaria, on Sunday SIG lost to Nanterre by 32 points.

FIBA Cup: Boras -1.5 (1.93)

Wrocław is still weakened after recent purge. Boras should win this game in double digits.

Baltic League: Jekabpils +7.5 (1.97)

Jekabpils won 4 in a row and today will seek out revenge after 18-point loss to Prienai on October 14th.


BUMS: Klaipeda (2.44), Sassari (2.26), Nizhny Novgorod (2.59), Turk Telekom (2.29).
 
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Rodstew said:
Hi! Where do you get all the info you use for capping?


Regards
Click to expand...


You mean trends? I'm keepeing current records in my database. Look at first two pages of this thread. Here's my basic list of websites usefull for capping:

Scores, schedule and standings:
http://www.flashscore.com/basketball/
http://basketball.realgm.com/international/scores

News:
http://www.sportando.com/en/
http://www.talkbasket.net/

Rosters:
http://www.eurobasket.com/

International transactions:
http://basketball.realgm.com/international/transactions

Team Stats (Standard & Advanced):
http://basketball.realgm.com/international/team-stats

Euroleague:
http://www.euroleague.net/

Eurocup:
http://www.eurocupbasketball.com/eurocup

FIBA Europe Cup:
http://www.fibaeurope.com/

Eurobasket and National Teams:
http://www.eurobasket2015.org/en/default.asp

Video analysis and breakdowns, video scouting reports, NBA Draft Workouts:
http://www.draftexpress.com/index.php

Free to air video feeds (FIBA Europe Cup and Bundesliga):
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtInrnU3QbWqFGsdKT1GZtg
http://www.laola1.tv/en-int/channel/german-basketball-bundesliga

Players database, trades, contracts, draft picks, prospects, rights held, free agents, charts, etc.:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...HYu62WIu5BjZGlEk_Ruh71kDI/edit#gid=1020885318

Twitter list - euro basketball:
https://twitter.com/PLCapper/lists/euro-hoops

Twitter list - euro basketball clubs:
https://twitter.com/PLCapper/lists/european-basketball-clubs

Regional leagues:

Baltic League - BBL
http://www.bbl.net/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Basketball_League

Adriatic League - ABA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABA_League

VTB
http://www.vtb-league.com/en/home/home.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VTB_United_League


Selected domestic leagues:

BE - Ethias League
http://scoooreleague.be/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball_League_Belgium_Division_I

CZ - NBL
http://www.nbl.cz/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Basketball_League_(Czech_Republic)

DE - Bundesliga
http://www.beko-bbl.de/de/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball_Bundesliga

ES - Liga Endesa
http://www.acb.com/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liga_ACB

FI - Korisliiga
http://korisliiga.fi/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korisliiga

ET - Korvpalli Meistriliiga
http://www.basket.ee/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korvpalli_Meistriliiga

FR - Pro A
http://www.lnb.fr/fr/Accueil/000011/Pre-Home
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LNB_Pro_A

GR - HEBA A1
http://www.esake.gr/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Basket_League

IS - Winner League
http://basket.co.il/default_eng.asp?lang=en
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League

IT - Serie A
http://www.legabasket.it/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lega_Basket_Serie_A

LA - LBL
http://basket.lv/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latvijas_Basketbola_Līga

LT - LKL
http://www.lkl.lt/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lietuvos_krepšinio_lyga

PL - Tauron Basketball League
http://www.plk.pl/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_Basketball_League

TR - Basketbol Super Ligi
http://www.tblstat.net/
http://www.bsl.org.tr/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Basketball_Super_League

UA - Superleague
http://www.superleague.ua/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Basketball_SuperLeague

---

Google Translate: https://translate.google.en/
 
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Klaipeda +3.5 - W
Trento +4.5 - L
Bilbao -6 - L
Saratov +3.5 - W
Boras -1.5 - W
Jekabpils +7.5 - W

Jan. 13th: 4-2 (+1.83u)

Season: 167-153-2 (+0.98u)

BUMS: 2-2 (+0.70u)
 
Euroleague: Kuban +6.5 (1.95)

Kuban is 6-0 ATS on the road and 5-0 ATS as an underdog in Euroleague this season (10-2 ATS overall). Fenerbahce is 3-1-1 ATS as home fave and 6-2-1 as favorite in Euroleague. This game will be a bloodbath - the winner will take the lead of the E Group. Kuban +6.5 (C)

Euroleague: Crvena Zvezda +8 (1.95)

Crvena Zvezda is one of the few teams able to keep up with Panathinaikos at their own court. Since 2012 Belgrade and Athens have played six times and Panathinaikos never won by more than 6 points. Serbs still have to show up for this game though. Crvena Zvezda +8 (B)

BSL: Yesilgiresun +10 (1.97)

Giresun have won both meetings with Usak in 2015 OUTRIGHT. Both teams played 2 days ago very tough games with Turkish powerhouses - Fenerbahce and Pinar. In these circumstances it's too unrealistic to expect double digit win from Usak over very solid Yesilgiresun. Usak 82, Yesilgiresun 76. (A)

no BUMS today
 
I like Fener tonight. Not sure I will play it, but Cuban is mostly luck I believe ATS wise.

CSKA has half their roster question mark and play in a new arena - not sure it's good news for them...
 
divol said:
I like Fener tonight. Not sure I will play it, but Cuban is mostly luck I believe ATS wise.

CSKA has half their roster question mark and play in a new arena - not sure it's good news for them...
Click to expand...

My numbers are telling me Fener will win but Loko will cover. Fenerbahce 89, Kuban 83.

Teams advanced stats are almost identical. Home court & strategy (head coach) will decide.

 
divol said:
I like Fener tonight. Not sure I will play it, but Cuban is mostly luck I believe ATS wise.

CSKA has half their roster question mark and play in a new arena - not sure it's good news for them...
Click to expand...

Cska is rolling, main reason why i never pay 2 shit about rosters etc.. That's how bookies get you...
 
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