European basketball season 2015/2016

LKL: Neptunas -5 (1.93)

Neptunas is just 12-12 SU overall and 7-5 ATS on the road in LKL but expect them to start winning and covering now when they are eliminated from the Eurocup. Pieno Zvaigzdas is just 5-10 ATS as an underdog in LKL, 8th in the standings. Revenge game for Neptunas after 6-point loss on November 14th at Pasvalys. Neptunas -5 (B)

A1: Kolossos Rodou -2.5 (1.91)

Arkadikos lost 8th in a row, Kolossos is also struggling - 2-5 SU in their last 7 games. During that stretch Arkadikos best opportunity for win happened against Koroivos (lost by 1 point) and AEK (lost by 4). Every other game ended with double digit loss. Kolossos Rodou -2.5 (C)

BSL: Büyükçekmece -3 (1.97)

Trabzonspor is struggling mightily and will be playing on very short 2-day rest at Büyükçekmece that is rested and is 7-1 ATS in their L8 games in Turkish league. Büyükçekmece stunned Trabzon 69:73 on the road back in October. Büyükçekmece -3 (B)

BBL: Frankfurt +4 (1.92)

Frankfurt is in the midst of yet another amazing win streak (13-game this time) and we're getting them well rested as 4-point underdog versus Ludwigsburg that just played in Eurocup two days ago (and was eliminated). Frankfurt won first meeting with Ludwigsburg by 5 (did not cover though as 5.5-point fave). Skyliners have 2nd best defense in Bundesliga. Frankfurt +4 (B)

ProA: Le Havre/Dunkerque Under 150 (1.94)

O/U is 0-3 in last three meetings. Dunkerque is ranked 2nd in DRtg in ProA. Le Havre scored just 63 points against Dunkerque at home in first meeting back in December. Both teams met recently in French Cup game on January 23rd - Gravelins won 62:63, total for that game opened at 150. Gravelins home court is tough place to play, home team will once again slow down Le Havre that is playing at the highest pace in ProA. Le Havre/Dunkerque Under 150 (B)

ABA: Cibona Zagreb/Krka Over 145 (1.93)

All last five Cibona games were high scoring. Zagreb's first meeting with Krka was high scoring game (176 points total scored). Cibona is 7-4 O/U at home in Adriatic League. Krka is 5-5 O/U on the road in ABA. Over 145 (C)
 
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Not the results I was hoping for - my Skyliners were missing tons of free throws - this should really be a win not a push and 4-2 day not 3-2-1.

Neptunas -5 - W
Kolossos -2.5 - L
Büyükçekmece -3 - W
Frankfurt +4 - P
Le Havre/Dunkerque Under 150 - L
Cibona Zagreb/Krka Over 145 - W

Feb.13th: 3-2-1 (+0.83u)

Season: 218-199-9 (+5.96)
 
Sorry no write-ups, its middle of the night and I'm too sleepy. Plus we have 156876127 ongoing games to watch in cbb AND All-Star weekend.

I think Milan and Torino look very solid, those are the strongest plays on my card (B-rated). Koszalin also should get the job done against garbage Lublin. I'm fading Joventud and Cedevita - both are very disappointing recently. Overall nice mix of favs and dogs. BOL

ABA: Metalac Valjevo +14.5 (1.98)

ACB: Valencia -6.5 (1.91)

ACB: Manresa +4 (1.97)

TBL: Koszalin -12 (1.95)

LegaA: Milano -4.5 (1.95)

LegaA: Torino +9 (1.93)
 
All three wins by half a point each. I don't even know how to comment on this. At the beginning it looked like Koszalin and Torino will cover easily but both teams fell apart in second half.

Metalac +14.5 - W
Valencia -6.5 - W
Manresa +4 - L
Koszalin -12 - L
Milano -4.5 - W
Torino +9 - L

Feb.: 14th: 3-3 (-0.16u)

Season: 221-202-9 (+5.80u)
 
A1: Apollon +14.5 First Half (1.92)

Let's hope Patras will be able to survive at least first 20 minutes of this game. (C)
 
FIBA Europe Cup: Chalon -5.5 (1.93)

Both teams have been outstanding this season. Chalon (10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS) impressed in FIBA Cup with their unique offensive style (124.2 ORtg - best in FIBA Cup and 11.8 3-point shots made on 42%) while Oostende (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS in FIBA Cup) is number one team in Belgium. It will be very difficult for Oostende to stop this crazy up tempo Chalon offense at home (B)

FIBA Europe Cup: Lyon -11.5 (1.99)

Lyon-Villeurbanne 8-1 ATS as double digit favorite in ProA, FIBA Europe Cup and French Cup. This team has killer instinct - they not only like to win but like to win big. (B)
 
utfootball4 said:
You know booker is out.
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Yeah but without him Chalon scored 90 at Cantu, 101 vs Monaco, 111 at Chalons-Reims. Oostende has 4 bigs at 6'10'' or taller but they may become useless when Chalon starts to play super-fast small ball. These bigs can't guard on the perimeter or effectively play transition defense - the are too slow. This will put an extra pressure on Oostende guards and I don't trust them. Oostende has a chance to cover only if Chalon has bad shooting day but I don't see it - this is a team that makes three 3-pointers on average in every quarter on 42%, that's 36 extra points. Oostende is making 7 at 32% clip.
 
I will have one more play on Rovinari-Khimik game. Waiting for the line to move.

FIBA Europe Cup: Frankfurt/AEK Larnaca Over 141.5 (1.95)

Both teams thrive on defense (Frankfurt 2nd in DRtg in FIBA Europe Cup, Larnaca 13th in DRtg) but score on average 80 points during their last 5 games and the total is just 141.5. Frankfurt is 4-2 O/U at home, scoring 92.3 pts in their L3 in FIBA Cup. Frankfurt is committing 20.5 personal fouls per game while Larnaca 22.1. Because of stingy defense played by these teams there will a lot of free throws in this game. Over 141.5 (C)

A1: Aris -13.5 (1.97)

Aris is 8-1 ATS at home in Greek league. Aris won 6 of their last 7 games, five of those wins were by double digits. It will be a revenge game for Aris after they were stunned on the road at Amaliada on November 14th (65:67). (B)

A1: PAOK +4 (1.93)

Both teams are playing some awfull basketball recently - Kolossos is 2-6 SU in their L5 and PAOK is 1-7 in their L8. Home team is 4-1 ATS as home fave but these covers happened against the weakest teams in A1 - Rethymno, Arkadikos, Koroivos and Kavala back in October and November. Kolossos line opened at -1, is now at -4 and has no value now. PAOK is 4-2 as an underdog in A1. PAOK won 7 out of last 9 meetings with Kolossos. PAOK +4 (C)
 
Khimik number didn't reach 4 as I was expecting but at night +3.5 was priced at 1.99 at Pinnacle. Three of my 4 plays are against public.

FIBA Europe Cup: BK Khimik Yuzhne +3.5 (1.92)

Rovinari is 1-4-1 ATS as favorite in FIBA Europe Cup. Khimik won its first 10 games in international cups before losing next 2 road games at Mons and at Utena. Khimik had full week to rest while Rovinari played with Pitesti in Romanian Divizia A. Ukrainian team is ranked 3rd in DRtg in FIBA Cup, only Frankfurt and Nymburk are playing better on defense. Rovinari spread moved from -2 to -3.5. This is a contrarian play. Khimik +3.5 (B)
 
And here are Wed. results:

Frankfurt/AEK Larnaca Over 141.5 - W
Aris -13.5 - W
PAOK +4 - L
Khimik +3.5 - L

Feb.17th: 2-2 (-0.08u)

Season: 224-206-9 (+4.65u)
 
I'm going with the dogs today. Under 155.5 in AGOR/Lavrio game is probably better pick than +8.5.

A1: Apollon +7 (1.90)

Apollon is 8-3 ATS as an underdog in A1. Apollon 70, AEK Athens 74. (B)

A1: Lavrio +8.5 (1.93) (C)

Rethymno is 5-2 ATS as home fave. Lavrio is 6-4 ATS as away dog. Rethymno 79, Lavrio 71. (C)

Copa Del Rey: Gran Canaria +6 (1.92)

Interesting stat: Gran Canaria is 0-5 ATS as an underdog of 6.5-point or more in all competitions this season. Valencia though was in crisis till Sunday when they beat Joventud on the road. (B)
 
Copa Del Rey started on Thursday and other cups are starting today (French, Italian among many).

Leaders Cup: Chalon +3.5 (1.94)

Chalon is not in the best spot here just three days after FIBA Cup game against Oostende. Now when they are playing important play-off games in international cups it will be better for them to be quickly eliminated from Leaders Cup so they could rest their players a little bit before next game in FIBA Europe Cup. It's tough to pass on such value though - Chalon is +3.5-point dog against Le Mans whom they defeated by 18 points 4 month ago. Previously injured F Booker is back (played against Oostende and scored 20 points). Chalon +3.5 (C)

Leaders Cup: Monaco -1 (1.90)

Nanterre without their injured go-to-guy G Robinson (13 ppg). Nanterre thin rotation of 8 players will be extra-thin today - it is confirmed that Nanterre will have only 7 players registered for this competition. Without Robinson Nanterre lost to Dijon by 20 in ProA a week ago. Pascal Donnadieu was very concerned in pre-game interview when asked about problems caused by Robinson injury. Monaco -1 (A)

Polish Cup: Włocławek/Kutno Over 139.5 (1.94)

Very low total number for a two teams in very good disposition - Włocławek is 8-1 SU in their L9 and Kutno is 5-1 SU in their L6. Over 139.5 (C)
 
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Italian Cup picks. Interesting trend - all games played in Italian Cup last year ended under the total except for the final Milan-Sassari. I think this situation may repeat this year. Contending teams will be playing in back-to-back-to-back scheme, so saving energy, limiting minutes of key guys and slowing down the tempo/pace of the game will be a key for winning the tournament.

Italian Cup: Milano/Venezia Under 152.5 (1.94)

Both teams are an 'under' type of teams in LegaA. Venezia had problems surpass 70-point mark in recent games. Milano is still without their injured go-to-guy G Gentile. Projected score: Milano 79, Venezia 69. Under 152.5 (B)

Italian Cup: Sassari -2 (1.90)

On January 17th Cremona won with Sassari 73:72. How about some revenge? Before that game Sassari was 5-0 SU against Cremona. Average win margin was 9 points (if we don't count a 34-point blowout). Sassari -2 (A)

Italian Cup: Avellino +1 (1.94)

Avellino seems unstoppable now, winning 7 straight against Italian top teams (Milano, Reggio Emilia, Trento, Pistoia, Venezia). Reggio Emilia is struggling in last 4 games (1-3). Avellino +1 (B)
 
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moneyprinter said:
Copa Del Rey started on Thursday and other cups are starting today (French, Italian among many).

Leaders Cup: Chalon +3.5 (1.94)

Chalon is not in the best spot here just three days after FIBA Cup game against Oostende. Now when they are playing important play-off games in international cups it will be better for them to be quickly eliminated from Leaders Cup so they could rest their players a little bit before next game in FIBA Europe Cup. It's tough to pass on such value though - Chalon is +3.5-point dog against Le Mans whom they defeated by 18 points 4 month ago. Previously injured F Booker is back (played against Oostende and scored 20 points). Chalon +3.5 (C)

Leaders Cup: Monaco -1 (1.90)

Nanterre without their injured go-to-guy G Robinson (13 ppg). Nanterre thin rotation of 8 players will be extra-thin today - it is confirmed that Nanterre will have only 7 players registered for this competition. Without Robinson Nanterre lost to Dijon by 20 in ProA a week ago. Pascal Donnadieu was very concerned in pre-game interview when asked about problems caused by Robinson injury. Monaco -1 (A)

Polish Cup: Włocławek/Kutno Over 139.5 (1.94)

Very low total number for a two teams in very good disposition - Włocławek is 8-1 SU in their L9 and Kutno is 5-1 SU in their L6. Over 139.5 (C)
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Who you have winning this kutno gm?
 
utfootball4 said:
Who you have winning this kutno gm?
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Włocławek on paper looks stronger - big name players (Oguchi), veterans, one guy who played in ACB (Jelinek) one who played in Greece (Bristol), some former Polish NT players. Kutno much younger, inexperienced but having three solid Americans could certainly help. Kutno is a typical home team - good at home but having trouble winning on the road. Bear in mind that the game will be played on neutral venue, so Włocławek has small advantage in that aspect. The pointspread seem a little too big though. On December 30th Włocławek won with Kutno on the road 54:58. My raw numbers (L5 avg) - Włocławek 74.4, Kutno 76.4. I doubt Kutno will be able to win outright but cover is possible. Be careful though.

Some strong trends:

Kutno is 6-3 ATS as road underdog.
Włocławek 10-4-2 ATS as fave in Polish league.

BOL
 
I never liked to bet on domestic cups but actually I find it easier than domestic leagues. Saturday card will be posted in next 3-4 hours, in the meantime go and read this piece about Eurocup.

Chalon +3.5 - W
Monaco -1 - W
Włocławek/Kutno Over 139.5 - W
Milano/Venezia Under 152.5 - W
Sassari -2 - L
Avellino +1 - W

Feb. 19th: 5-1 (+3.66u)

Season: 231-208-9 (+9.16u)
 
I couldn't decide, so I'm sticking with the teams I know well and I respect. Plus I'm taking a shot at Holon.

Leaders Cup: Chalon ML (1.90) (B)
BBL Pokal: Frankfurt +4.5 (1.95) (B)
Copa Del Rey: Gran Canaria -3.5 (1.91) (B)
Coppa Italia: Trento +4.5 (1.95) (B)
Winner: Holon +7.5 (1.95) (C)
 
Sportsbetting is so unpredictable. I thought it was a weak card but it ended with a sweep. Sometimes it just comes to the gut feeling.

Chalon ML - W
Frankfurt +4.5 - W
Gran Canaria -3.5 - W
Trento +4.5 - W
Holon +7.5 - W

Feb.20th: 5-0 (+4.66u)

Season: 236-208-9 (+13.82u)

11-2 in L3 days.

 
Copa Del Rey: Gran Canaria +9 (1.94) (B)
Leaders Cup: Chalon +2 (1.94) (A)
Coppa Italia: Avellino +11 (1.95) (B)

Winner: Hapoel Tel Aviv +9.5 (1.91) (C)
 
Chalon +2 - L
Gran Canaria +9 - W
Avellino +11 - W
Hapoel Tel Aviv +9.5 - W

Feb.21st: 3-1 (+1.80u)

Season: 239-209-9 (+15.62u)

14-3 in L4 days.

 
Winner: Ironi Nes Ziona +2.5 (1.92)

Nes Ziona is back at home after three straight road games. Haifa is 3-6 ATS as road favorite in Winner league. Nes Ziona +2.5 (B)
 
utfootball4 said:
Feel weird about the Nymburk gm, smell a upset.
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I took Nymburk because Riga beat them at home, so it was supposed to be revenge game for Czechs, also Riga looked awful in the last couple of weeks and Nymburk won 5 in a row... but Latvians are kicking their as***...
 
Patras +2 - L
Lavrio/Kolossos Under 149 - L
Nymburk -2.5 - L
Nes Ziona +2.5 - W

Feb.22nd: 1-3 (-2.08u)

Season: 240-212-9 (+13.54)
 
Small report before Wednesday Eurocup play-offs.

I looked into my 2014/2015 database before tomorrow play-off games to check how teams performed in Eurocup 1st leg meetings last season.

There were 8 games. Majority of point spreads was in 1-5 point range with favs and dogs nicely balanced. Here are the results:

Home favorites 2-3 ATS
Home underdogs 2-1 ATS
Away favorites 1-2 ATS
Away underdogs 2-3 ATS

Faves finished 3-5 ATS.

This year is different - its home favorite heavy (only one home dog), point spreads are in 1.0-5.5 range (in 7 of 8 matchups).

The only home underdog - Zielona Góra (+7.5) will play with Kazan. Zielona Góra is former Euroleague team, that has already registered 2 wins against very good Russian teams during this season (at St. Petersburg and at Kuban).

O/U was 4-4 in 1st leg games and 2-6 (!) in 2nd leg games in previous Eurocup play-off edition, so clearly there was much more defense during 2nd leg games.

Four teams that have played in Eurocup play-offs 2015 will play also in 2016. The most experienced ones are: Gran Canaria, St. Petersubrg, Karsiyaka, Munich, Kazan, Banvit. These teams were 4-2 ATS in 1st leg but only 1-5 (!) ATS during 2nd leg. Gran Canaria, St.Petersburg, Banvit, Kazan covered in 1st leg (Gran Canaria won outright as +1 road dog at Cedevita and is +1 road dog at Limoges today). Teams that failed to cover (as road dogs) in 2015 1st leg: Pinar, Munich.

Munich-ALBA Berlin is a fierced rivalry game - 2 days ago ALBA won with Munich in German Cup Final 67:65. Revenge spot for Bayern today. Total for that cup final game was at 160.5, for today's Eurocup game open at 157.0. Previous 4 meetings between ALBA and Munich were high scoring affaires. During last 12 meetings only once road team won outright. Average win margin in last 6 games ALBA Berlin played versus Bayern at o2-World Arena was 11.8 (with three big dd wins, some of them really humiliating for Bavarians).
 
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Winner: Ashdod -2.5 (1.96)

Ashdod is back at home after 3-game road trip and will be looking to take advantage of tired Maccabi Rishon players on short 2-day rest after their big road play-off win against Ventspils in FIBA Europe Cup. Rishon is 2-5-1 ATS on the road in Winner League. Ashdod -2.5 (A)
 
Big card. I'm not sure if I will find time to write some analysis. I'm a little bit concerned about St.Petersburg, Gran Canaria, Trento and Milano - all are on very short rest because of domestic cup games played during past week-end. Trento, Oldenburg and Berlin might be the best bets.

Eurocup: Banvitspor/Milano Under 156.5 (1.93)

Milano is 6-9-1 O/U in international cups. Under is 3-0 in Banvit L3 games. Under 156.5 (C)

Eurocup: St.Petersburg +3 (1.96)

St.Petersburg is 5-2 ATS on the road in Eurocup. St.Petersburg +3 (C)

Eurocup: Berlin -3.5 (1.95)

Berlin is 6-1 SU in their L7 games against Munich at home. Berlin -3.5 (B)

Eurocup: Trento +5.5 (1.95)

Trento is 5-1 ATS as road underdog in Eurocup. Trento +5.5 (B)

Eurocup: Gran Canaria +3 (1.94)

Gran Canaria is 7-1 ATS on the road in Eurocup. Gran Canaria +3 (C)

Eurocup: Oldenburg +5 (1.95)

Oldenburg is 5-3 ATS as road dog in Eurocup. (B)
 
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My FIBA Europe Cup play-off card. I have no time to do full write-up's, so I will just post a little bit of trends from my spreadsheet.

FIBA Europe Cup: Rovinari Targu +15 (1.95)

Khimik have lost their last two cup games in bad style. Team from Ukraine is 6-3 ATS as favorite in international cups. Rovinari is 4-2 ATS on the road and 6-0 ATS as an underdog in FIBA Cup. Rovinari +15 (C)

FIBA Europe Cup: Juventus Utena -6.5 (1.97)

Juventus is 5-1 ATS at home in FIBA Cup and 7-0 ATS as favorite in FIBA Cup. Juventus -6.5 (A)

FIBA Europe Cup: Frankfurt Skyliners -8 (1.98)

Frankfurt is perfect 9-0 ATS in their L9 FIBA Cup games. How about that? Frankfurt Skyliners -8 (B)

FIBA Europe Cup: Chalon +4.5 (1.95)

Oostende is 2-5 ATS at home and 4-6 ATS as fave in FIBA Cup. Chalon +4.5 (B)
 
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These are turbulent times for Energia Targu-Jiu as the players staged a protest at the weekend and the club had to field the youth team in the Romanian league game at BCMU Pitesti, leading to an inevitable 108-40 loss.
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I didn't know this when I picked Rovinari.

source
 
Not a bad day - Ashdod half point loss was painful, Zenit and Juventus were the biggest disappointments. Underdogs were covering at very high rate: 6-1-1 ATS in Eurocup today!

Ashdod -2.5 - L
Banvit/Milano U156.5 - W
St.Petersburg +3 - L
Berlin -3.5 - L
Trento +5.5 - W
Gran Canaria +3 - W
Oldenburg +5 - W
Rovinari +15 - W
Juventus -6.5 - L
Frankfurt -8 - W
Chalon +4.5 - L

Feb. 24th: 6-5 (+0.70u)

Season: 246-217-9 (+14.24u)
 
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