European basketball season 2015/2016

Yeah, I watched parts of that game, it was one of the weirdest basketball games ever - both teams looked like they were forced to play :clappy:. It shouldn't be like that. That's why I refused to bet yesterday and that's why actually don't enjoy Euroleague system with teams playing in made up groups. It's all too complicated and artificial and it directly leads to nonsense situations like in yesterday game.

Euroleague should abolish this nonsense and create a league for 16 or 24 teams with teams playing each other two times during the regular season and then best 8 or 16 teams should compete in play-offs for the title. Simple and effective. More games, more money for clubs and players, more entertainment for fans, more revenue for tv channels, more transparency and so on.
 
All right, I shouldn't bet on this but I just can't stay away. If Pau-Lacq-Orthez was able to cover as 9.5 point dog in Dunkerque, Dijon should be able to do the same. This should be a hell of a game. I won't be surprised though if Gravelins crush Dijon by 20 points.

ProA: Dijon +7 - 1 unit (1.91)

Winner of this game will take 3rd place in the standings of ProA. This should be a close game with each team having a real chance to win it. Dunkerque (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) is quite good as home fav (4-2 ATS), while Dijon (8-3 SU/ATS) is 4-0 SU/ATS in their L4 games and 3-0 ATS in their last three road games. Dijon is coming off a win and in that situation is 6-2 against the spread. Dijon +7 (C)
 
moneyprinter said:
Yeah, I watched parts of that game, it was one of the weirdest basketball games ever - both teams looked like they were forced to play :clappy:. It shouldn't be like that. That's why I refused to bet yesterday and that's why actually don't enjoy Euroleague system with teams playing in made up groups. It's all too complicated and artificial and it directly leads to nonsense situations like in yesterday game.

Euroleague should abolish this nonsense and create a league for 16 or 24 teams with teams playing each other two times during the regular season and then best 8 or 16 teams should compete in play-offs for the title. Simple and effective. More games, more money for clubs and players, more entertainment for fans, more revenue for tv channels, more transparency and so on.
Click to expand...

I guess you don't know that this is will be system from next season. 11 teams got the ticket to the league, one more will be Durasafuka and other 4 tickets are still open (probably Eurocup winner, Italy winner, Spain winner and one more team).

But the Final 4 stays for now...
 
I was mislead by stats and shouldn't really touch this Dijon road game, in previous season they also lost big in Dunkerque. It's a trend for sure, Gravelines simply have their numbers. Lesson learned.

Ludwigsburg +4 - W
Crvena Zvezda ML - W
Dijon +7 - L

Dec.18th: 2-1 (+0.55u)

Season: 128-113-2 (+4.96u)
 
I'm not sure why line in Tbilisi-Astana game moved by 15, maybe some players are unavailable, maybe it's an impact of signing C Natyazko.. I like to take points root for weaker teams.

VTB: Vita Tbilisi +36.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Taking a shot at bad underdog here. Vita Tbilisi is 0-3 ATS in their L3 games in VTB League but Astana is no better: 3-7 ATS overall, 2-4 ATS at home and 1-2 ATS as favorite. Astana is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games and haven't been double digit favorite in current season not to speak about being a 36-point favourite. Line opened at -21.5 and moved to 36 points. Tbilisi +36.5 (C)

BBL: Ulm -5.5 - 1 unit (1.92)

On Tuesday Mitteldeutscher (2-8 SU, 4-8 ATS) have won its second game in BBL. Mitteldeutscher is horrible against the spread this year: 1-5 ATS at home and 3-5 as dog. Ulm is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and they are playing good basketball recently. The signing of G Babb from D-League have strengthen their roster. Year ago Ulm won in Weißenfels by 4 points but that win was achieved against a team that have won 13 games, now Mitteldeutscher is considerably worse and Ulm has young and talented group of players that should get the job done. Ulm -5.5 (B)

ABA: Metalac/Skopje Under 145.5 - 1 unit (1.94)

Metalac is 2-5 O/U in home games and 0-4 O/U as home favorite. Skopje is 2-5 O/U as road dog and 0-4 O/U coming off a win. Both these teams have very mediocre eFG% (under .500) and solid defense as well as many tall players that like to bang under the basket. In October and November Skopje had an amazing 8-game under the total streak of games. Under 145.5 (B)

ACB: Tenerife Canarias TT Over 83 points - 1 unit (1.90)

Tenerife will continue its stellar play against the worst defense in ACB (124.0 DRtg). Gipuzkoa (1-9 SU, 0-10 ATS) at this point is not even trying to win. Gipuzkoa is allowing 92 points on avg in road games. With ORtg improved to 108.2 home team shouldn't have any problems with scoring. Tenerife TT O83 (B)
 
Adding:

ProA: Le Mans/Lyon-Villeurbanne Over 141 - 1 unit (1.97)

I believe this game will go over the total of 141 points. Le Mans has mediocre defense, losing 79 points on average in their last five games. ASVEL has .518 eFG% and ORtg at 112.0. Yes, Lyon is playing on the slowest pace in French league but the difference between fastest and slowest team in ProA is just 5 possesions. Last five Le Mans games ended with an over result. Le Mans is 3-1 O/U when coming off a win. With ORtg at 106.9 and home court advantage Le Mans should be able to score like they did recently against other good teams - Berlin, Reggio Emilia, Monaco and Strasbourg. Over 141 (C)
 
Tbilisi +36.5 - L
Ulm -5.5 - W
Metalac/Skopje Under 145.5 - W
Canarias TT Over 83 points - L
Le Mans/Lyon-Villeurbanne Over 141 - W

Dec.19th: 3-2 (+0.83u)

Season: 131-115-2 (+5.79u)
 
LegaA: Sassari -3 - 1 unit (1.94)

Torino fired Luca Becchi and his coaching staff on Monday, day after the road loss to Avellino. Frank Vitucci was named new head coach and no doubt he will have a hard time to resolve his teams problems because F Ivanov (13.5 PPG) has left Torino to sign in Turkey. Meanwhile Sassari struggling and finally eliminated from Euroleagiue is quietly doing well against the spread in LegaA - as road favorite Sassari is 5-1 ATS. Sassari new head coach Marco Calvani is 5-1 ATS in Italian league and Euroleague. Sassari is very good when favored by -3.5 or less (5-1 versus the spread in domestic league and Europe). Sassari - 3. (B)

BBL: Baunschweig +5 - 1 unit (1.92)
BBL: Bonn/Braunschweig Over 156.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

On Wednesday Bonn have lost another game in Eurocup at home to Nanterre. Nanterre scored 95 points. Bonn has no defense at all (111.5 DRtg in BBL). Bonn is on incredible 13-game losing streak and 5-0 O/U in their last five games in Germany and Europe. During that loosing streak bookmakers made Bonn a favorite six times and today they did it for the 7th time. Bonn is 2-6 ATS as favorite and 2-4 ATS at home in BBL. Braunschweig is 5-1 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games. Braunschweig is 5-2 ATS as an underdog and 4-1 ATS as road dog. Over 156.5 and Braunschweig +5 (B)
 
ABA: Crvena Zvezda TT Over 73.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

Crvena Zvezda scored over 74 points in 5 of their last 7 games. Crvena Zvezda players should be pumped up after Friday win over Bayern Munich in Euroleague. Yes, Podgorica is good at defending home court but the team from Belgrade is playing at a high pace (around 87.9), have .536% eFG% and is averaging 1.4 points per possesion. Crvena Zvezda TT Over 73.5 (B)

BSL: Konyaspor/Pinar Under 154.5 - 1 unit (1.97)

Torku Konyaspor plays at 3rd slowest pace in Turkish basketball league. Both teams are shooting just 44% from the field. Pinar have won last four meetings with Konyaspor and all the games were high scoring with two of them going into overtime. This time though both teams are playing bad basketball - Konyaspor is on five game losing streak during which they are scoring 72.6 points on avg. And Pinar is just 1-4 SU, shooting just 69.6 points per game. Under 154.5 (C)
 
Eurocup Last 32 Group Configuration.
The teams divided in 8 groups, the best two of each group will advance to the eight finals.

 
Damn OT made the Konya/Pinar game go over the total.

Crvena Zvezda TT O73.5 - L
Konyaspor/Pinar U154.5 - L

Dec.21st: 0-2 (-2.00u)

Season: 132-119-2 (+2.71u)
 
ACB: Andorra +6 - 1 unit (1.90)

Andorra won previous two games with Joventud. Home team is on 5 game losing streak. Joventud is 1-4 ATS after a lost game in ACB. Andorra is 4-1 ATS as road dog and 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Both teams will be on very short 1-day rest. (A)

ProA: Pau-Lacq-Orthez +9.5 - 1 unit (1.99)

Lyon can crush opponents at home and they are big public team with budget at the same level of Limoges and Strasbourg (over 6 mil €). Lyon is just 3-4 ATS as home favorite in ProA. Pau is one of the best road underdogs in French league with 5-2 ATS record. Pau is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. They were able to cover on the road against very good Gravelins on Sunday. Pau is also 5-1 ATS when coming off a loss. Pau-Lac-Orthez +9.5 (B)

ABA: Tajfun Sentjur +7 - 1 unit (1.95)

Tajfun Sentjur is 5-3 SU in games against Krka (all played in 2015). Tajfun won four meetings in a row with Krka. Krka is mediocre as home favorte (2-3 ATS in Adriaatic League). Line moved from -5.5 to -7 which means that now Krka has to win this game by 8 points or more. This will be a slow tempo, low scoring game and because of that the underdog has a shot at covering. (C)
 
utfootball4 said:
Surprise you not on Herbalife or le mans
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I spent like 30 minutes looking at Gran Canaria-Malaga game. And I backed off - this is a rivalry game and in recent meetings Malaga owned Gran Canaria. I saw Gran Canaria TT Over 73.5 on Pinny - it looked tasty except the fact that Gran Canaria in recent games had scored versus Malaga: 67, 68, 60, 63, 70, 67, 65, 60 points and so on. And I said 'No, Thank you' :nonofinger:

Regarding Le Mans I went to my local bookie and bet on teased down Le Mans team total (O68.5) parlayed with 1H Grizzlies -4.5 (also teased). I had to do it after I have read in ESPN's Philadelphia-Memphis game preview that Sixers players believe they have a shot at winning with Memphis tonight. I was laughing for good five minutes after reading this.

At the moment Le Mans is much better on offense in away games than at home. Right now LeMans is for me an auto play on TT over in away games.

Basically all the games I watched today were very entertaining - ALBA struggled, Pau covered by a half point, Tajfun players shoot themselves in the foot. The only boring and predictable league in Europe is still VTB.
 
That sneaky Pau backdoor cover was nice but the Tajfun meltdown was.. meh. Krka robbed me from going 3-0. I will be back with vengeance LOL.

Andorra +6 - W
Pau-Lacq-Orthez +9.5 - W
Tajfun Sentjur +7 - P

Dec.22: 2-0-1 (+1.89u)

Season: 134-119-2 (+4.60u)
 
Locked plays, write-ups coming later, it's 3 A.M. at me and I'm too tired to write.

So many interesting games... Milan, Frankfurt, Koroivos, Lavrio, Metalac, Gdynia definitely worth looking at..

Scoore: Limburg -3.5 - 1 unit (1.92) (C)

BSL: Istanbul BB TT Under 81.5 - 1 unit (1.95) (A)

BSL: Kolejliler -1.5 - 1 unit (1.95) (B)

BBL: Tubingen +3 - 1 unit (1.94) (C)

BBL: Oldenburg +3.5 (1.92) (C)

ACB: Bilbao +14.5 - 1 unit (1.98) (B)
 
Dogs to look at
[TABLE="width: 594"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Walter[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]EWE[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD]Varese[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tenerife[/TD]
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</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
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utfootball4 said:
Dogs to look at
[TABLE="width: 594"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Walter[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]EWE[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Varese[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tenerife[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Click to expand...

Yes, they will bark for sure. It looks like I failed to to provide write-ups. I was busy all day.
 
Limburg -3.5 - W
Istanbul BB TT Under 81.5 - W
Kolejliler -1.5 - L
Tubingen +3 - L
Oldenburg +3.5 - L
Bilbao +14.5 - W

Dec.23rd: 3-3 (-0.15u)

Season: 137-122-2 (+4.45u)
 
ACB: Sevilla +5 (1.92)

Estudiantes is a bad home team - team from Madrid is only 1-5 ATS at home and 0-2 ATS as favorite at home. Madrid is also 3-6 ATS coming off a loss. Sevilla has started the season 0-4 SU but is 5-3 SU since then. Sevilla is 3-2 ATS as road underdog in ACB. Sevilla +5 (B)

ProA: Dunkerque -9.5 (1.95)

Dunkerque is the toughest team to beat at home in entire ProA. Dunkerque is 5-2 ATS as home fav at home and is easily covering double digit spreads as home fav. Gravelines stumbled recently on the road at Le Havre, loosing straight up and against the spread, will be certainly looking to bounce back at home where is 6-1 SU. A week ago Gravelins replaced G Tsintsadze with G Brazelton who came from Konyaspor. Opposing teams are scoring just 63 points in games played at Dunkeruqe court. Dunkerque -9.5 (B)

BBL: Giessen +7 (1.94)

It will be just the second game for Carsten Pohl who replaced coach Mattias Fischer who's been fired 7 days ago. Bonn under Fischer have lost 13 games in a row. Bonn is 2-5 ATS at home and 2-4 ATS as home favorite. Giessen 49ers is 5-1 ATS as road underdog and 4-1 ATS when coming off a win. Giessen +7 (C)

TBL: Gdynia/Szczecin Under 148 points (1.96)

Asecco Prokom Gdynia has the best DRtg in Polish league (90.7). Their defense is so effetive and offense so ineffective that all 6 games played on Gdynia home court ended under the total (perfect 0-6 O/U). Szczecin, playing on Gdynia court, will have all kinds of trouble on offense. Under 148 (C)

BSL: Banvit -4.5 (1.95)

Pinar is not a good team versus the spread - in last 11 games in Turkish league and Euroleague Pinar is just 1-10 ATS. Banvit is also having trouble covering but is 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS in December in domestic league and Eurocup. Banvitspor -4.5 (C)
 
Sevilla +5 - L
Dunkerque -9.5 - W
Giessen +7 - W
Gdynia/Szczecin Under 148 - W
Banvit -4.5 - W

Dec.27th: 4-1 (+2.80u)

Season:141-123-2 (+7.25u)
 
Lega A: Trento +4 (1.98)

Venezia is 1-6 SU and 2-4-1 ATS in their last 8 games in LegaA and Eurocup. It seems that Reyer players are slowly hitting the wall. It will be their 8th game in December, they are playing every 3-4 days since the beginning of the month. Venezia is 3-3 ATS as home fave and 3-4 ATS when coming off a loss. Trento was on 6-game winning streak but they lost their last two road games (at Cantu, at Bilbao) and are 0-2-1 ATS in their last 3 games. Trento is still 4-2 against the spread as road dog and 5-3 ATS when coming off a win (in LegaA). Unfortunately for us the line moved from +5 to +4. Trento +4 (C)

ABA: Skopje +2 (1.95)

Skopje is 3-0 SU/ATS in their last 3 games with wins over Ljubljana, Metalac and Partizan Belgrade. Skopje won just 7 games in Adriatic League last season but is 7-9 SU and 10-5-1 ATS at the end of December. Skopje is 6-3-1 ATS as underdog and 5-1 ATS when coming off a win. Mega played well in October and November but is 1-4 SU and 2-2 ATS in this month's games. Mega is 4-3-1 ATS as favorite in ABA. Skopje +2 (C)

I will be looking at the lines tomorrow, trying to add a play. I'm thinking about taking Besiktas +8 (Galatasaray should win this by 20 points but they are not playing any D recently).
 
Next stage of Euroleague starts today.

Euroleague: Olympiacos -2 (1.91)

Olympacos is 3-1 straight up in last 4 meetings with Barcelona. Before 2015 though it was Barcelona who dominated the series (5 straight wins). So, it seems that the Greek team finally found a way to play with Catalan team. Barcelona will bring to this game its 107.4 DRtg and it may not be enough to stop Olympiacos sharphooters from scoring, especially at home. Olympiacos -2 (B)

Euroleague: Olympiacos/Barcelona Under 147 (1.97)

In all of the last five meetings between Olympiacos and Barcelona the total stayed under 150 points. Both teams prefer to play slow tempo basketball (ranked 5th and 6th in pace in Euroleague). For both teams defense will be a key factor - this means no easy buckets and careful playmaking. Olympiacos/Barcelona Under 147 (B)

Euroleague: CSKA -4.5 (1.93)

CSKA is 4-1 straight up in last 5 meetings with Khimki Moscow. CSKA have swept Khimki in last year VTB League Finals in June 2015 (CSKA was 3-0 SU/ATS in the series). In the Finals Khimki was underdog of +8.5, +11.5 and +10.0 points. Today's line is just +4.5. No need to overthink this - CSKA is still a better team and signing of G Shved doesn't matter that much. CSKA has better DRtg (91.7) in comparison to Khimki's (103.2) and better ORtg (123.5) to Khimki's (118.6). CSKA is on 13-game win streak (with last loss on Nov.13th in Euroleague vs Malaga). CSKA will be on 2-day rest while home team had 5 days to prepare for this game. CSKA has roster depth and coach Itoudis will manage his players minutes well as usual. CSKA -4.5 (B)
 
BBL: Ratiopharm Ulm +1.5 (1.98)

Two teams playing good basketball will met today in Braunschweig. Braunschweig is 4-1 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games and Ulm is perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in their last 6 games. Braunschweig is just 2-6 ATS at home and 1-4 ATS as home favorite. Ulm is 3-3 in away games and 0-1 as road dog but during their 6-game win streak they have defeated some solid teams (Frankfurt, Nancy on the road and Oldenburg) while Braunschweig wins came against struggling/bad teams (Gottingen, Tubingen, Mitteldeutscher). Ulm +1.5 (B)

TBL: Gdynia -5.5 (2.01)
TBL: Starogard/Gdynia Under 149 (1.97)

Starogard (2-10 SU, 2-8-2 ATS) will be hosting Asecco Gdynia (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS). Starogard is really bad recently - 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. Home team is 2-6 ATS coming off a loss. Gdynia has brutal defence that is wearing opponents out. As favorite Gdynia is 4-1 ATS in Polish league. After a won game O/U in Gdynia games is 2-5. Gdynia -5.5 & Under 149 (B)

adding:

TBL: Trefl Sopot +9 (1.90)

Radom is the hottest team in Polish TBL (7-1 SU, 8-0 ATS) but they are three days after emotional overtime win against Euroleage team - Zielona Góra, so a small letdown is expected. Now that line has moved to -9 it means that Radom has to win by 10 points on the road against Sopot (5-8 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) that is 3-1 ATS as home dog. Radom is certainly a solid team but as road fav is just 2-2 ATS. This will be a low scoring game because both teams play solid defense, have mediocre eFG% and because they play on a shortened week. The underdog has a chance to challenge favorite and cover versus the spread. Sopot +9 (C)

Euroleague: Cedevita/Kuban Under 147.5 (1.97)

Cedevita finished TOP24 stage with 0-3 SU/ATS record but qualified to TOP16. It doesn't matter now as each team starts new phase with 0-0 win/loss record. A fresh start is much needed in Zagreb. Kuban exhibited some exeptional defense in their last three meetings in VTB league - stopping Kazan at 58 points, Enisey at 73 points and Minsk at 50 points. We should expect similar effort today. Kuban prefers to play slow tempo basketball, while Zagreb is middle of the pack team in that area (Kuban pace - 83.7, Zagreb pace - 86.7). Cedevita had .506 eFG% in first 10 games in Euroleague. Under 147.5 (B)
 
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divol said:
Played Nes Ziona +7 - should be a decent bet (though not amazing one).
Click to expand...

Good one. This will be my pick also.

I lean Ashdod +4 and an under in Rishon/Bnei game but the numbers are scary low, so no play.
Maccabi Tel Aviv should cover - poor Holon is 1-8 SU in their L9 and 1-6 ATS as dog (1-4 ATS as road dog).
 
Ulm +1.5 - W
Gdynia -5.5 - L
Starogard/Gdynia U149 - W
Sopot +9 - W
Cedevita/Kuban U147.5 - L

Dec.30th: 3-2 (+0.85u)

Season: 147-126-2 (+8.93u)
 
Winner: Nes Ziona +7 (1.91)

Ironi Nes Ziona is 4-2-1 against the spread at home. Hapoel Jerusalem is constantly disappointing in Winner League as road team (3-5 ATS) and road favorite (2-5 ATS). Hapoel is only 2-4 ATS when coming off a loss. It's typical for Hapoel to let the lead slip away from them during the games - it happened multiple times in Eurocup and Winner League games. With the right attitude Nes Ziona should be able to cover the spread. Nes Ziona +7 (B)
 
Holon signed Bradley and are looking for other names to add. Wanted to add Gates, but he chose Germany. Still looking for good players. Ashdod is a very tough game to call. I think Eilat win this one and since all of Ashdod games are close, it's very hard to go with the favorites in Ashdod games...
 
That was some display by Jerusalem... They don't like me betting against them I guess. 1 - 2 in games betting against them and I think I lost all season only one more bet in Israeli league, so 66% of my losses were betting against Hapoel...
77 - 109 bet lost. This one was lost at tip off already... Jerusalem simply exploded on Nes Ziona, that couldn't stop them at all.
 
Unfortunately for us Hapoel players decided to finally show up for a game just when we have decided to fade them. What an irony. Sports betting is a funny hobby. Oh, welll we will bounce back as always.
 
A1: Rhodes +2.5 (1.95)

Nea Kifisia (4-7 SU and ATS) is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Athens based team is 0-4 ATS as home favorite. Kolossos Rhodes (5-6 SU, 8-3 ATS) is 3-2 ATS as road dog. Rhodes is coming off an overtime loss against AEK Athens and in this kind of spot they are 4-1 ATS in Greek A1. Nea Kifisia opened as 3.5 point fave. Rhodes +2.5 (B)

BBL: Giessen -3.5 (1.95)

Gottingen (3-12 SU, 3-11-1 ATS) is in free fall mode. Gottingen lost its last 4 games and is 0-3-1 against the spread. Gottingen is 2-7 ATS as an underdog. Giessen (7-8 SU, 9-6 ATS) is one of the best bets as road dog in German Bundesliga (6-1 ATS) but in Gottingen they will be away favorite for the first time in this season. Giessen is a strong team when coming off a win (5-1 ATS). Line moved from +3.5 to +2.5. Giessen -3.5 (B)

BSL: Buyukcekmece +8.5 (1.97)

Pinar Karsiyaka (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) is 2-4 against the spread as home fave in Turkish basketball league. Pinar is coming off a loss and in that spot is 3-5 ATS. Büyükçekmece is 6-6 SU and ATS and as road dog they are 3-2 ATS (5-3 as dog overall). Buyukcekmece is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. Pinar's bad defense will let the road team to keep up with Pinar until the very end. Pinar is 1-3 ATS when favored by 8.5 points or more this season. Buyukcekmece is 4-1 ATS in the underdog role of 8.5 points or more. I'm expecting the line to hit 9 at some point during the day. Buyukcekmece +8.5 (B)

BSL: Turk Telekom/Galatasaray Under 160.5 (1.97)

Turk Telekom is having problems on offense and is averaging paltry 67.6 points in their last three games. This may not be enough for an over to hit even if Galatasaray scores over 80 points. Turk Telekom is 0-3 SU and ATS in their last 3 games. O/U is 0-4 in Turk Telekom games after a loss. O/U is 2-6 in Galatasaray games after a win (nice correlation). O/U is 1-4-1 in Turk Telekom games when the total is set at 160 points or more. For Galatasaray it will be the highest total of the entire season in BSL. Take the under. Turk Telekom/Galatasaray Under 160.5 (B)
 
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BUMS - Basketball Underdog Moneyline System

I was surprised how often some of my underdogs were winning outright in the past two months. I decided to run a small experiment. I will be picking 2 to 4 ml dogs daily that in my opinion have the highest chance to win outright (based on stats, trends, spots, fatigue and other important factors).

I will be tracking ml underdogs for the next five months. I was doing similar thing last season in MLB with limited success (some months were very profitable like September 2015: +12u and some ended with a loss (July: -5u, August: -8u).

If I pick 2 ml dogs everyday and finish 1-1 for +0,10u gain or +0,15 gain and will be able to sustain my hit rate around 42,45 or 48% then there's a possibility that at the end of each month I will generates some small profit (depends from the odds of course).

Rules:

- only moneyline bets
- only underdogs with odds higher than 2.0 (+100)
- Pinnacle odds
- max 2 picks on regular basis
- max 4 picks on busy days like Wednesday, Saturday or Sunday when there's a lot of games
- flat stake of $2 per bet (=1u)

Let's see how is this going to end. Spreadsheet can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YdFAyF940gfyctP0Y-KKRxCQ_HLZR2WNtZcLV2rh1Lc/edit#gid=0

Today's picks: Konyaspor, Ludwigsburg, Trabzon, Rhodes.
 
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Like I said on twitter - shitty start of the year but BUMS went 3-1 (+3.16u). That's more than I was expecting.

Rhodes +2.5 - L
Giessen -3.5 - L
Buyukcekmece +8.5 - W
Turk Telekom/Galatasaray Under 160.5 - L

Jan.2nd: 1-3 (-2.03u)

Season: 148-130-2 (+5.90u)
 
TBL: Słupsk/Gdynia Under 145.5 (1.89)

Asecco Gdynia has the best DRtg in Polish basketball league although it is not a very good team. Gdynia has also very raw offense. Combination of good defense and bad offense resulted in many low scoring, ugly games and 0-7 O/U record in home games. Słupsk has decent offence but the home team will do everything it takes to prevent Słupsk players from running it. Line opened at 147 and is now unavailable. At some shops 145.5 is still on board. Słupsk/Gdynia Under 145.5 (B)

ACB: Manresa -1.5 (1.93)

Gipuzkoa have won last five games with Manresa but it was in previous two seasons when Manresa was really bad team and Gipuzkoa was playing better than now. Now the roles switched and Gipuzkoa is 1-12 while Manresa is 6-7. Gipuzkoa is one of the best options for bettors looking for a team to fade: 2-11 ATS in ACB. At home Gipuzkoa is 1-5 ATS and as dog 2-9 ATS. Manresa -1.5 (B)

Lega A: Varese +1 (1.92)

It looks like Varese is winning every second game they play in Lega A. This time they are coming off a loss at Reggio Emilia and they are ready to bounce back - Varese is 6-2 against the spread after a loss. Cantu can be dangerous at home but on the road, without the support of their crazy fans they are a very mediocre team (3-3 ATS in away games and as road underdog). Cantu is coming off a win and in that spot they are 2-4 ATS. Varese +1 (C)
 
Adding:

ACB: Andorra +5 (1.99)

Monbus is the coldest team in Spanish ACB league, losing 5 straight games (1-3-1 ATS in L5). Monbus is 4-2 ATS as home fave but they registered their last win in late November vs Joventud. Andorra is 4-1 SU/ATS in their L5 games. Andorra is very good as road dog: 5-1 ATS. Andorra is also 4-2 ATS coming off a win. Andorrra +5 (C)
 
So-so day but BUMS are exceeding my expectations. It's a small sample though.

Słupsk/Gdynia Under 145.5 - L
Manresa -1.5 - L
Varese +1 - W
Andorra +5 - W

Jan.3rd: 2-2 (-0.09u)

Season: 150-132-2 (+5.81u)

---

BUMS:
Today: 2-2 (+0.82u)
YTD: 5-3 (+3.98u)
 
Some of you are aware of this but man, Valencia is on ridiculous 26-game win streak in ACB & Eurocup (Valencia is 11-3 ATS in ACB and 5-5 ATS in Eurocup according to my database).
They just covered against Malaga as 7.5 fave. It's a covering machine. The play-offs in ACB will be special this year.

 
Yesterday Efes almost lost to Kolejliler at home and failed to cover as 12 points favorite, let's see if Giresun can challenge Fenerbahce in their lookahead spot before Euroleague game with Crvena Zvezda.

BSL: Yesilgiresun +9 (1.91)

Line opened at +9.5 for Yesilgiresun and dropped to +9 which means that the general betting public is finally aware of what the minority of bettors knew from the very beginning of the season - that this Fenerbahce team is not worth backing with the money at least for now. Fenerbahce, a team with big budget and 5 ex-NBA players started the season 0-4-1 ATS in BSL and Euroleague. In their last 5 games in Turkey they are 2-2-1 ATS (slight improvement but still not enough). Fenerbahce is a mediocre team in the role of road favorite (2-3-1 ATS in Turkey). Yesilgiresun is 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games but they have played with some of the best teams in Turkey (Galatasaray, Efes, Banvit). Yesilgiresun is 2-0 ATS as home dog and 5-3 ATS overall as an underdog. They are also coming off a loss and in that spot Yesilgiresun is 5-1 ATS which means that this is a dangerous team. Let's see if Fenerbahce stumbles again. Yesilgiresun +9 (C)

ABA: Sutjeska Nikisic +2 (1.94)

Two bottom of the table teams will meet in Adriatic League today - Sutjeska Nikisic (5-12 SU, 8-9 ATS) will host Partizan (6-11 SU, 5-12 ATS). Partizan is in another 0-3 SU/ATS slump. Partizan is a bad road team (2-6 ATS) and is bad as fave (2-6 ATS). Partizan is 2-8 ATS coming off a loss in Adriatic League. Nikisic is 3-1 ATS as home dog and 4-4 ATS at home overall. Nikisic +2 (C)

BUMS: Nikisic (2.14)
 
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Yesilgiresun +9 - W
Nikisic +2 - W

Jan4th: 2-0 (+1.85u)

Season: 152-132-2 (+7.66u)

BUMS today: 1-0 (+1.14u)

YTD: 6-3 (+5.12u)

I will have some plays later today but close to game time rather than now. I'm too busy with CBB and NBA tonight. This should be a great night.
 
FIBA Europe Cup: Antwerp/Ventspils Over 155.5 (1.93)

This should be a high scoring game. Port of Antwerp Giants has 119.3 ORtg and .556 eFG% in Eurocup. Ventspils posted 114.5 ORtg and .525 eFG% in Eurocup. Antwerp's last 6 games in Belgium and Europe went over the total (6-0 O/U). Antwep is 5-1 SU/ATS in their L6 games, the road team will have a really nice chance to upset Ventspils. Over 155.5 (C)

Eurocup: Limoges/Oldenburg Under 151.5 (1.95)

Both team experienced some minor issues recently. Limoges had problems with scoring (72.6 ppg) which resulted in 2 losess at Pau-Lacq-Orthez and vs Strasbourg. As fave Limoges is 2-5 O/U in ProA. Limoges likes to play slow (ranked 4th in pace in ProA at 81.5). Oldenburg underperformed before holiday break and during it (losses to Wurzburg, Ljublajna and Ulm) but since then got 2 valuable wins against Giessen and Tubingen. Oldenburg likes to play fast but Limoges will not allow them to push the tempo. Home team is on 9-day rest, while Oldenburg had just 2 days to prepare for this meeting. Under 151.5 (C)

Winner League: Haifa +2.5 (1.91)

Maccabi Haifa is on a small win streak in Winner League and Isreal Cup (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS in their L4 games). Hapoel Tel Aviv so-so as a home team (3-4 ATS) and as home favorite (2-3 ATS). Before they defeated Ironi Nahariya on January 2nd they were on 4 game losing streak with 3 out of 4 of those losses registered at home (vs Maccabi Tel Aviv, Nes Ziona and Kiryat Gat). Haifa +2.5 (C)

more plays coming soon, just got back home
 
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Eurocup: Ludwigsburg -5 (1.95)

Ludwigsburg never played with Zielona Góra, so it's hard to tell what is going to happen in today's game. Some key facts: Zielona Góra is bad on the road (1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS as away underdog in Euroleague), 2-5 ATS on the road in Polish TBL league. Ludwigsburg is playing lights out recently (wins over quality teams: Brindisi, Bonn, Le Mans, Wurzburg, Bamberg, Berlin). Ludwigsburg aquired G Trice two weeks ago and now the team has a really deep roster with 12 good players. Ludwigsburg finished first stage of Eurocup with an impressive 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS record. Ludwigsburg is 9-3 ATS when coming off a win. Their eDiff at +10.7 (in Eurocup) and +6.1 (in BBL) looks impressive - Ludwigsburg is good at covering versus the spread. This team is hot and Zielona Góra is not. Ludwigsburg -5 (B)

BUMS: Antwerp (2,52), Nes Ziona (3,01), Haifa (2,16), Oldenburg (2,88).
 
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