European basketball season 2015/2016

My new rating system for picks - A is the strongest pick, B and C have medium value and D is close to a coin toss (I won't be posting any D here):

A - bankroll building play, a max play, highest chance to hit,
B - strong one unit play, not as good as A but better than C,
C - standard one unit play, most common,
D - half a unit play, recreational play.

I always bet flat 1 unit per bet. Plays rated A and B are basically 3 units plays and 2 units plays respectively. Bettors with small bankroll should use A and B type to build/expand their bankroll. I hope this helps.
 
Eurocup: Bonn/Ljubljana Over 158.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

Both teams are struggling recently. It seems Bonn head coach is losing his team - Bonn is 0-8 SU and ATS in last eight games in Eurocup and German league. Bonn is playing bad defense - 109.9 DRtg in BBL and 119.6 DRtg in Eurocup (ranked dead last among 32 Eurocup teams). Lubljana is also bad on D - 113.4 DRtg in Eurocup gives them 3rd worst record. What's interesting both these teams know how to score - they own ORtg around 110 which is a very good number. Bonn is 6-1 O/U in Eurocup, 3-0 O/U as home fav. Ljubljana is also 6-1 O/U in Eurocup and 3-0 O/U as away underdog. Bonn/Ljubljana Over 158.5 (C)

FIBA Cup: Energia Rovinari +7 - 1 unit (1.92)

It seems that Astana is an overrated, public team in this matchup. Astana won its last two games but is atrocious against the spread (0-5 ATS in FIBA Cup). Rovinari is very solid in FIBA Cup - 4-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS. Rovinari won with Astana 89:74 in Week 3. Rovinari is 3-0 as an underdog, while Astana is 0-4 ATS as favorite. Rovinari +7 (B)

FIBA Cup: Bakken Bears/Tajfun Sentjur Under 151 - 1 unit (1.94)

Bakken Bears won first game with Tajfun 72:68 at home. Danish team is ranked 3rd in DRtg in FIBA Cup (89.5), while Slovenian team is ranked 2nd in the same statistical category (85.2). All 8 Tajfun games at home in Adriatic League ended under the total. In 4 of them Tajfun was favored (0-4 O/U as fav.). It will be a battle of two teams that are very good defensively and it should end in an under result for bettors. Bakken Bears/Tajfun Sentjur Under 151 (B)

FIBA Cup: Gaziantep/Wroclaw Over 147.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Home team has bad defense (108.5 DRtg in FIBA Cup) and Gaziantep is ranked 6th in ORtg 117.8. First meeting was a low scoring affair but the team from Poland wasn't at full strenght and the second half was a total disaster. Gaziantep is 4-0 SU/ATS in L4 and 3-1 O/U. Gaziantep has covered against the spread in 6 games in a row in Turkish league and in FIBA Cup. Gaziantep will not have any problems scoring, and Wroclaw will have support of the fans. Gaziantep/Wroclaw Over 147.5 (C)

FIBA Cup: Chalon -6 - 1 unit (1.90)

Chalon is ranked number one in ORtg in FIBA Cup (crazy 128.7). With ORtg of 98.1 and DRtg of 114.4 and eFG% of .464 it will be very difficult for Lasko to cover against the spread. Chalon is 2-0 as away favorite in FIBA Cup. French team won first meeting by 33 points (86:53). Chalon -6 (C)
 
utfootball4 said:
Im looking at this dog Energia Targu Jiu on the ml.
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I watched some of the Astana games this season and I must say they are atrocious offensively. I rated this pick B because it will be the longest travel for Rovinari in this season (5.600 km via Istanbul and Tbilisi). Teams playing in Astana struggle sometimes and home team likes to take advantage of this fact by pushing the tempo up. Rovinari ML for 0.5 unit looks pretty good.
 
Adding A rated play.

FIBA Cup: Frankfurt +2.5 - 1 unit (1.91)

Frankfurt is 5-0 SU/ATS in last 5 games played in BBL and in FIBA Cup. Frankfurt is on unbelievable 12 game winning streak. German team has 111.3 ORtg and .547 eFG% in FIBA Cup. Porto is surprisingly good in FIBA Cup (4-1 ATS) but they have no necessary experience and depth to win with teams like Frankfurt, even at home. Porto lost first meeting on the road by 8 points. Frankfurt will wear them down and win outright. Frankfurt +2.5 (A)
 
Bonn/Ljubljana O158.5 - W
Rovinari +7 - W
Bakken/Sentjur U151 - W
Gaziantep/Wroclaw O147.5 - L
Chalon -6 - L
Frankfurt +2.5 - W

December 2nd: 4-2 (+1.70u)

Season: 103-87-2 (+8.76u)
 
Sorry for late update, I was busy all day long.

Euroleague: Adnadolu Efes -4 - 1 unit (1.95)

With 116.3 ORtg and .578 eFG% in Euroleague Anadolu Efes has nothing to worry going to Zagreb for a meeting with Ceditia. Efes is scoring 86 ppg in last five games. Two week ago Olympiacos without three players won with Cedevita on the road 70:83 and Efes is capable of repeating this result even without Krstic and Huertel (both are injured and unavailable for this game). Anadolu Efes -4 (C)

Euroleague: Brose Bamberg +5.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

Bamberg is having fantastic season - in Euroleague they are 5-2 SU and perfect 7-0 ATS. Bamberg is 14-3 ATS in BBL and EL combined. Bamberg lost first encounter in Moscow 83:77. The Russians and their coach were clearly frustrated in that game because they couldn't build big lead. CSKA is just 1-4 ATS in last 5 Euroleague games. Home team has 4th best defense in EL. CSKA is ranked number one in ORtg category in EL. CSKA will be without F Khryapa and G Jackson. Bamberg looks like a reliable home underdog. Brose Bamberg +5.5 (C)
 
utfootball4 said:
I think Maccabi Tel Aviv finally gets a Win, thoughts?
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First I need to see them covering against the spread vs good teams / in hostile territory. Maccabi is just 1-4 ATS under new head coach - Zan Tabak. Too early to back them. And Sassari is also after head coach change (too unpredictable at the moment).
 
I'm on 11 win streak at fansunited. I even build big green wall yesterday :rofl:
+96 units in basketball in three months at that site.
December is going to be wonderful for me.

 
Euroleague: Unicaja Malaga +2 - 1 unit (1.95)

After four straight wins Darussafaka lost three consecutive games - with Galatasaray, Bamberg and Banvit. There are some signs that the club management is not satisfied with team leaders. Bad atmosphere around the team may cause additional pressure on favorite. Turkish team needs another win to separate itself from the surging Maccabi Tel Aviv. Malaga won first encounter with Darussafaka 81:69. Spanish team is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in Euroleague. Unicaja Malaga +2 (C)

Euroleague: Barcelona -2 - 1 unit (1.92)

The question is: is Panathinaikos a team that we should trust to. It seems the Greens are winning every second game in Euroleague and cover against the spread very sporadically (3-4 ATS overall). Barcelona, after early struggles (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS after their first two games in EL) is playing very well since then (5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS). Barcelona possess significant advantage in ORtg (118 to 101). Barcelona won last 9 games with Panathinaikos no matter where they were played. This streak dates back to 2013. Barcelona -2 (C)

Pro A: Dijon +2 - 1 unit (1.97)

Paris-Levallois is 3-7 SU and ATS in French Pro A. They started season poorly, loosing and not covering in all of their first four games of the campaign. Paris is coming off a loss at Dunkerque and in that spot they are 2-4 ATS. Dijon is 6-2 SU and ATS. Dijon won two straight games (at Pau-Orthez, vs Cholet) after consecutive losses at Lyon-Villeurbanne and at Antibes. Dijon won both meetings with Paris-Levallois in 2014-2015 season - by 19 points (on the road) and by 12 points (at home). Dijon +2 (C)

Pro A: Chalons +3 - 1 unit (1.94)

Chalons is 5-5 SU and ATS in Pro A. Chalons is 4-1 SU/ATS in last four games. Home team is on 6 day rest, while Nanterre is on short 2 day rest after OT loss to Trento in Eurocup. Nanterre is ice-cold right now - 0-5 ATS in their last five games in ProA and Eurocup. Nanterre is 1-3 ATS in away games and 1-3 ATS after a loss in ProA. Chalons +3 (B)
 
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Bad day for Spanish clubs.

Malaga +2 - L
Barcelona -2 - L
Dijon +2 - W
Chalons +3 - W

Dec. 4th: 2-2 (-0.09u)

Season: 106-90-2 (+8.62u)
 
ABA: Ljubljana +5 - 1 unit (1.94)

In November Ljubljana had a weird stretch of games when they went 0-5 SU/ATS and in their last three Slovenian team is 3-0 SU/ATS. During a basketball season teams are getting cold and hot like that and there is nothing surprising in that. Partizan is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Adriatic League. Partizan is 1-3 ATS as home fav. Serbian team is coming off a road loss to Cedevita Zagreb and in such spot they are 2-5 ATS. Ljubljana +5 (C)

ProA: Lyon-Villeurbanne -1.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

Chalon is 6-4 SU/ATS in ProA and 2-0 as home dog. Everything is going well for Chalon - team advanced to next round of FIBA Cup and is on the right track to play play in the play-offs in ProA. Lyon is having even better season (8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS overall). Lyon is a good road team -3-0 ATS in French basketball league. Lyon won 11 of their last 12 games in PRoA and FIBA Cup. Lyon-Villeurbanne -1.5 (C)

ProA: Le Havre +3.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Cholet fired Laurent Buffard and named Jerome Navier a new head coach. It happened just a day before game with Le Havre. Both these teams are struggling - Cholet is 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS and Le Havre is abysmal 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS. Cholet is on 8 game losing streak. They are also 1-3 ATS as home favorite and 3-5 ATS coming off a loss in ProA. Le Havre is 2-5 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in ProA and FIBA Cup. Le Havre is at least trying to turn their season around - they covered against the spread in 4 straight games. At some point Le Havre will win a game in domestic league and today they will have a shot at it because Cholet is in bad spot after the head coach change. Le Havre +3.5 (C)

A1: PAOK -3 - 1 unit (1.90)

Apollon is 1-7 SU and 4-4 ATS in Greek basketball league. Apollon is 4-1 as an underdog but in two of those meetings Apollon was in the role of double digit dog, so the stats may be misleading. Apollon can't match PAOK roster strenght, especially after the three signings PAOK had made during the autumn (G Hatcher, F Mavroeidis and C Schortsanitis). PAOK is playing better basketball after acquiring these players. Recently PAOK registered wins over teams like Besiktas or Lietuvos. I'm expecting the line to reach -4 mark sooner than later. PAOK -3 (B)
 
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Ljubljana +5 - W
Lyon-Villeurbanne -1.5 - L
Le Havre +3.5 - W
PAOK -3 - L

Dec. 5th: 2-2 (-0.11u)

Season: 108-92-2 (+8.51u)
 
BBL: Oldenburg +3.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

After Wednesday loss in Eurocup to Ljubljana Bonn record in last 9 games is standing at 0-9 SU and ATS. Nine straight! Bonn is losing everything no matter with whom they play with. And the bookmakers were so cynical that they made them favorites in five of those games. I'm pretty sure there were some square bettors backing Bonn during that horrifying stretch. Oldenburg +3.5 (A)

BBL: Frankfurt +2.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Frankfurt is on 13 game winning streak. I repeat: on 13 game winning streak. Frankfurt covered against the spread in their last six straight games. Frankfurt is 5-0 ATS as an underdog in BBL. And today we're getting them as home underdog. I'm not sure what happened to ALBA - the team from Berlin is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games in BBL and Eurocup. Frankfurt +2.5 (A)

BSL: Kolejliler +4 - 1 unit (1.99)

Kolejliler is playing better and better with every game. Kolejliler is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in last three games in Basketbol Super Ligi. In all these games Kolejliler was an underdog and the team record in that role is 4-1 against the spread, so backing them at home makes a lot of sense. Pinar Kariyaka is struggling recently (2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS in domestic league and Euroleague combined). Pinar is playing every 3-4 days and simply have no time to practice, not to speak about resting after tough Euroleague games. I would recommend backing peaking Kolejliler against out of sync Pinar which has next game in Euroleague scheduled on Thursday. Kolejliler +4 (A)

VTB: Bisons Loimaa +10 - 1 unit (1.92)

Nymburk is returning home after very long road trip. During 11 days Nymburk have played 4 games (at CSKA, at Aarhus, at Saratov, at Dublin) and won only one - against Hibernia, one of the worst teams in FIBA Cup. Ronen Ginzburg - Nymburk's head coach - was visibly frustrated with his team inability to win games. After going 5-2 in VTB League, Nymburk is 0-3 SU and ATS. In all of the last three games Nymburk was an underdog and failed to cover against the spread. Expecting from Nymburk to win by 11 points may be too unrealistic in the current state of the things. Bisons are 5-5 ATS in VTB league and 2-2 ATS as road dog. Finnish team won and cover ATS in their last two games vs Riga and vs Minsk. Bisons Loimaa +10 (B)

ABA: Mega Leks -2.5 - 1 unit (1.99)

Metalac Valjevo (4-8 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games. Mega Leks (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) is on three game winning streak although Mega had some problems covering in their L4 games (1-2-1). In Adriatic league Mega is 4-2 ATS in away games. Metalac at home is not an easy opponent but Mega Leks have advantage over Metalac in all key statistical categories. Mega Leks -2.5 (C)
 
thoughts on these games

[TABLE="width: 594"]
<colgroup><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]Enel Brindisi vs Betaland Capo D'Orlando[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Estudiantes vs CAI Zaragoza[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia vs EA7 - Emporio Armani Milano[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Took K.Gat +14. Jerusalem plays third game in 5 days and has Athens on Wednesday. K.Gat with two new players and it should be an even game, especially since K.Gat lost the last two in the final seconds.
 
utfootball4 said:
thoughts on these games

[TABLE="width: 594"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Enel Brindisi vs Betaland Capo D'Orlando[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Estudiantes vs CAI Zaragoza[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia vs EA7 - Emporio Armani Milano[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
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I have now a subscription plan on cappedin.com and I have a pending premium play on that Milan/Reggio game.

Estudiantes are no bueno but Zaragoza is 0-5 ATS in L5 and this team is after head coach change so no play for me.

I love Capo D'Orlando at home (I generally love teams that play hard on D) but Orlandina is 1-5 SU and 0-5 ATS in their L5 games. Enel is 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in L4. This is will be a blood bath. Piero Bucchi was resting some of his players in recent Eurocup game. Are they at full strenght today?
 
moneyprinter said:
I have now a subscription plan on cappedin.com and I have a pending premium play on that Milan/Reggio game.

Estudiantes are no bueno but Zaragoza is 0-5 ATS in L5 and this team is after head coach change so no play for me.

I love Capo D'Orlando at home (I generally love teams that play hard on D) but Orlandina is 1-5 SU and 0-5 ATS in their L5 games. Enel is 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in L4. This is will be a blood bath. Piero Bucchi was resting some of his players in recent Eurocup game. Are they at full strenght today?
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Im leaning Milano win su out of those 3, capo close second....
 
Took also Nes Ziona -1 for today (bigger bet than K.Gat - but not max). Good team that went through bad period. Tal Dan is back for today, new coach for the team and Nahariya gets too much respect mostly because they won both Jerusalem and Maccabi in Nahariya, but both teams came to Nahariya, thinking about their European season and paid for it. Nes Ziona will be really focused today...
 
divol said:
Took also Nes Ziona -1 for today (bigger bet than K.Gat - but not max). Good team that went through bad period. Tal Dan is back for today, new coach for the team and Nahariya gets too much respect mostly because they won both Jerusalem and Maccabi in Nahariya, but both teams came to Nahariya, thinking about their European season and paid for it. Nes Ziona will be really focused today...
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dont do it.
 
Oldenburg +3.5 - w
Frankfurt +2.5 - L
Kolejliler +4 - W
Bisons Loimaa +10 - L
Mega Leks -2.5 - L

Dec.6th: 2-3 (-1.08u)

Season: 110-95-2 (+7.43u)
 
ProA: Dunkerque +5 - 1 unit (1.92)

Strasbourg is 0-6 ATS in L6 games in ProA and Euroleague. As home favorite Strasbourg is 2-3 vs the spread and 1-3 ATS when coming off a loss. Gravelins are 8-2 SU and ATS, 4-1 ATS as away team, 3-1 ATS as road dog. What's more important Dunkerque is 5-0 SU/ATS in L5 games. Away team is red hot with best eDiff in French league and number one ranked deffense (94.2 DRtg). There's a reason why Dunkerque's last seven games stayed under the total. Strasbourg in the current form is a mess. Dunkerque +5 (B)

Winner: Ironi Nahariya +2 - 1 unit (1.95)

Ironi Nes Ziona is 2-7 SU, 2-6-1 ATS. Team from Nes Ziona is on four game losing streak (1-4 SU, 1-3-1 ATS in L5). Home team is also 2-4 ATS after a loss. For Nes Ziona it will be just the second game under new head coach Ofer Berkovitz. Ironi Nahariya is red hot 6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS overall and 4-1 ATS as away dog (7-1 as dog overall - which is very impressive). Nahariya is coming off a win and in that spot the team is 4-1 versus the spread in Winner League. Ironi Nahariya +2 (B)

TBL: Wroclaw/Zgorzelec Under 160 - 1 unit (1.92)

I'm not sure why total for this game is so high. Both teams are ranked in the middle of the pack in Polish league in ORtg and in DRtg. Wroclaw is 4-5 O/U in domestic league and 1-3 O/U at home. Zgorzelec 5-3 O/U and 2-2 O/U on the road. For a home team it will be the second highest total of the season, 10 to 14 points bigger than usual when they play at home. Away team last four games went over the total (O/U 4-0). There is ongoing heated rivalry between Wroclaw and Zgorzelec - thats why high scoring outcome is possible but also one low scoring quarter could easily prevent an over. Wroclaw/Zgorzelec Under 160 (C)
 
divol said:
It was a good pick, but Jerusalem just destroys them so far.
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It was good analysis unfortunately for us Kiryat Gat players forgot to show up to play. That's why backing underdogs in euro basketballl is tricky and not every dog is worth the money.
 
utfootball4 said:
I hate monday euro hoops, shady shit takes place and dogs usually take over.
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Monday is my favorite day for betting euro hoops - less games, more time to cap, games are on tv (which is good for betting overs and team totals) also additional rest for teams playing in cups and at the same time lookahead spots for those teams...
Weekends are the worst in my opinion - lots of phony lines set as traps for public bettors unaware of nuances of betting euro bb.
 
moneyprinter said:
Monday is my favorite day for betting euro hoops - less games, more time to cap, games are on tv (which is good for betting overs and team totals) also additional rest for teams playing in cups and at the same time lookahead spots for those teams...
Weekends are the worst in my opinion - lots of phony lines set as traps for public bettors unaware of nuances of betting euro bb.
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Complete opposite here, weekends are my fav. Been tracking Mondays over the past 2yrs and dogs rule... I need loko right now!!!
 
Nes Ziona won. Too much was going against Nahariya, the win over Maccabi, the fact that Alfasi and Berkovich (the player) were chosen as coach and player of the month, both from Nahariya, the fact that Nes Ziona changed coaches. Nes Ziona also simply better team, with Damon Simpson, Top 5 player in Israel, outside of Maccabi TA and Hapoel Jerusalem.
 
divol said:
Nes Ziona won. Too much was going against Nahariya, the win over Maccabi, the fact that Alfasi and Berkovich (the player) were chosen as coach and player of the month, both from Nahariya, the fact that Nes Ziona changed coaches. Nes Ziona also simply better team, with Damon Simpson, Top 5 player in Israel, outside of Maccabi TA and Hapoel Jerusalem.
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I would say the decisive factor was what had happened in home team's locker room during the halftime. Nahariya was in total control of the game before halftime and came out flat after the break and Nes Ziona came out pumped up and extra motivated. This s*** happens all the time in basketball games and unfortunately it's not possible to handicap it in any way. Anyway, congratulations to Berkovitch for inspiring his players.
 
Dunkerque +5 - L
Ironi Nahariya +2 - L
Wroclaw/Zgorzelec Under 160 - W

Dec. 7th: 1-2 (-1.08u)

Season: 111-97-2 (+6.35u)
 
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utfootball4 said:
Not surprise Dunkerque lost today based on the line movement. Everything that moved down favs won, anything up dogs won.
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Dunkerque loss has nothing to do with the line movement. Beaubois hit 7 threes, Strasbourg crushed the boards better (35-15 in REB) and generally home team was in a bounce back spot after embarrassing loss at home to Bayern Munich in EL. Gravelins couldn't hit a *$#& (21-46 for 45% FG%) and at some point started to question refs decisions which resulted in many calls against players from Dunkerque. It was a snow ball effect. Boxscore.

Every ats winning streak has to end at some point like the Frankfurt or Mega Leks streak on Sunday but I also remember last season Avtodor Saratov over the total games streak in VTB which ended 27-3 O/U (90%) or last season Atlanta Hawks in NBA...
 
ProA: Orleans/Lyon Over 143.5 - 1 unit (1.85)

Orleans recently is having some problems scoring and their last five games stayed under the total. The opening total of 143.5 is the lowest total for Orleans in current season. Lyon has productive offense (ORtg 112.5, 76.1 ppg avg). Both teams have eFG% above .520. Orleans 108.3 DRtg will not stop Lyon players from scoring. Lyon scored 86 points on Saturday at Chalon. Orleans/Lyon Over 143.5 (C)

LKL: Prienai +1.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

Both Siaulai and Prienai are playing really well this season. Prienai (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS in LKL) is 3rd in standings in Lithuanian League behind Zalgiris and Lietuvos Rytas and Siaulai (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS in LKL) is 5th. In recent years Siaulai beat Prienai regularly but in this season Prienai has an edge over Siaulai (114.2 to 109.1 in ORtg, 103.1 to 109.1 in DRtg, .560 to .494 in eFG%. Siaulai line opened at -1.5 but Prienai should be favored in my opinion. Prienai is 4-0 versus the spread as road team and 3-1 ATS as road underdog (in LKL). Prienai +1.5 (B)

Baltic League: Rakvere Tarvas -4.5 - 1 unit (1.98)

Rakvere Tarvas (3-5 SU, 5-1 ATS in Baltic League) lost its last two games in Baltic League back in November. It was back-to-back road games at Jurmala and at Liepaja, so we shouldn't be making much out of this losses. Since then Rakvere played 4 games in Estonian league and finished 3-1 SU. Rakvere is 3-0 ATS at home and 3-1 ATS as favorite in Baltic League. Jurmala is 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS in Baltic League. Latvian team can cause some trouble for Rakvere but the Estonian team should prevail. Both teams are on 2-day rest. Rakvere Tarvas -4.5 (C)
 
moneyprinter said:
Dunkerque loss has nothing to do with the line movement. Beaubois hit 7 threes, Strasbourg crushed the boards better (35-15 in REB) and generally home team was in a bounce back spot after embarrassing loss at home to Bayern Munich in EL. Gravelins couldn't hit a *$#& (21-46 for 45% FG%) and at some point started to question refs decisions which resulted in many calls against players from Dunkerque. It was a snow ball effect. Boxscore.

Every ats winning streak has to end at some point like the Frankfurt or Mega Leks streak on Sunday but I also remember last season Avtodor Saratov over the total games streak in VTB which ended 27-3 O/U (90%) or last season Atlanta Hawks in NBA...
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oK, believe that if u want. I adjusted my plays and cashed my big dog su. Cant trick me twice.
 
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