European basketball season 2015/2016

Lega A: Capo D'Orlando TT Over 71 - 1 unit (1.93)

Even if Capo D'Orlando won't be able to cover as a home dog, they should at least score some points. Playing at home should definitely help. In last three games Orlandina scored 73 points (vs Cantu), 76 (at Venezia), 76 (at Bologna). Team total of 71 is not that big as it may seem at first glance. Home team has a very nice lineup, they are ranked 9th in Lega A in ORtg category at 101.3. Reggio Emilia is ranked 1st in ORtg but their defense isn't that good - Reggiana allowed 72, 68, 79, 92 and 82 points in all its games in Serie A and Eurocup combined. They are ranked 7th in DRtg in Italian league, lower than Orlandina. All Reggiana's games in Serie A went over the total. Capo D'Orlando is 3-0 ATS in its last three games. Capo D'Orlando TT Over 71.

BBL: Oldenburg/Bamberg Over 154.5 - 1 unit (1.97)

I'm expecting from Brose Bamberg to continue to play highly efficient offense they have played in first four games in BBL (3-1 ATS) and first two games in Euroleague (2-0 ATS). Brose fans will be fired up after an Euroleague win over Darussafaka, making Brose Arena even tougher place to play than usual. Oldenburg should be on top of their game if they don't want to be embarrassed. Oldenburg is 3-1 O/U in BBL and 3-0 O/U after loss (they are coming off a loss at Trento in Eurocup). Home team will be on very short 1 day rest, making it easier for Oldenburg to score (fatigue). Oldenburg/Bamberg Over 154.5.

ABA: MZT Skopje/Cibona Zagreb Under 148.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

For an over to hit it needs both teams to score and in this matchup only the home team has productive enough offense. Skopje offense is quite good - ranked 2nd in ORtg in Adriatic league. Skopje is 4-2 ATS and 4-2 O/U. Macedonian team is well coached by Ales Pipan. Cibona is struggling offensively, especially in road games (53 points at Zadar, 65 at Cedevita, 61 at Valjlevo. They have 2nd worst ORtg in ABA league. Croatian team is 1-5 ATS and 1-4-1 O/U. Recently they waived two starting guards and signed two free agents. Cibona is coming off a hard fought win over Partizan 63:57. The final score shows they are trying to win games by gritty defense rather than by outscoring opponents. Skopje/Cibona Zagreb Under 148.5

Some stats:
 
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Capo D'Orlando TT Over 71 - L
Oldenburg/Bamberg Over 154.5 - W
Skopje/Cibona Zagreb Under 148.5 - W

Oct.25th 2-1 (+0.92u)

Season YTD: 37-34-2 (+0.42u)
 
I'm backing two struggling teams today!

TBL: Ronesans TED Kolejliler -2 - 1 unit (1.95)

Kolejliler lost its first two games - vs Fenerbahce (on the road) and Usak (at home). Last season was very difficult for Ankara based club as Kolejliler recorded some ugly losing streaks, fired head coach and underperforming players. This year may look similar but on paper their lineup looks solid. Kolejliler will have a chance to bounce back after two straight losses in Turkish league. Their next opponent - Giresun is a team newly promoted to Super Ligi. Giresun has signed experienced players (Perkins, Hosley) who previously played in strong leagues like VTB. Kolejliler definitely will be challenged but home court advantage should help them to win and cover. Kolejliler -2.

Lega A: Sassari - 3 - 1 unit (1.94)

Sassari is disappointing in Euroleague like in last season. Sardinia, despite some really nice signings made during the off-season, is giving 80+ points to opposing teams on regular basis. They are 0-3 SU/ATS in last three games. Varese is an inconvenient opponent for Sassari and covering as road fav will not be as easy like it used to be but at some point this team has to find the solution to their issues. And Varese with their own issues (0-2 SU/ATS in first 2 games of the season) may be an ideal place to start with. I don't see Sassari getting embarrassed on nationally televised Monday game. Line opened at +3.5 and moved to +3, so clearly some (sharp?) bettors are on home underdog side. Later during the gameday line may hit +2.5 mark. Watch out for this. Sassari -3.
 
evalagoal said:
Moneyprinter.. Where are you getting these stats??
Click to expand...

Which exactly? That's my database with ATS records I'm keeping and managing myself.
Other information regarding opening lines, players, head coaches, budget is available for free on various websites.
 
Kolejliler -2 - W
Sassari -3 - W

Oct.26th 2-0 (+1.89u)

Season YTD: 39-34-2 (+2.31u)

Small sweep. I will post my Eurocup picks in the next 5 hours.
 
Those plays may look square but I do believe they are the right choices.

Eurocup: Gran Canaria -10.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Line opened at -12.5 and dropped to -10.5. Some bettors really do believe that Italian club will be able to cover on the road as double digit underdog against one of the most intimidating defenses in Europe. Ludwigsburg, who I rate higher than Brindisi, played really hard on Gran Canaria court a week ago but was crushed 95:75. I don't see Enel surviving and covering. Both teams will be on very short rest (home team - on 1 day, away team - 2 days). Gran Canaria has deeper roster though. Enel lost its last two league games and was 0-2 ATS in those. Enel has bad DRtg in Eurocup (110.3) and mediocre eFG% (.504). Gran Canaria has advantage in all major advanced statistical categories and is playing some stellar basketball recently. Enel advanced stats in Eurocup are worse than Ludwigsburg's, which means Enel actually may loose higher than German team. Gran Canaria -10.5.

Eurocup: Bilbao -3.5 - 1 unit (1.91)

Bilbao bounced back nicely after a loss at home vs Nanterre in Eurocup opener by beating Bonn on the road as -3.5 fav. Telekomm players didn't show up for that game, Bilbao made so many 3's on high percentage (six in first half) that Bonn simply had no answers. Five days later Bilbao easily defeated Gipuzkoa on the road as -4.5 fav. Now they continue their successful road tour. Oldenburg is a team to fade in this edition of Eurocup, as they are a replacement team, taking place left by other teams who had to withdrawn from competition. Oldenburg is not prepared for Eurocup and probably have no business in winning any games. Of course they will try hard but the Group A is looking strong. Oldenburg is on 1-day rest after physical clash with Bamberg on the road. Oldenburg had played 7 games in Eurocup and BBL and covered only once (1-6 ATS in all gm's). Bilbao -4.5.
 
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I forgot about one important injury - Brindisi point guard Scottie Reynolds is injured and may miss up to 20 days of action. This means Enel's reserve PG's Marzaioli and Cournoh (young and inexperienced) will get more minutes.
 
FIBA Cup started this week. It's a poor man version of Eurocup. Some really obscure clubs were invited to this new cup format. I'm expecting lots of value for smarter bettors and some really interesting angles, unseen in other leagues. We will have teams from VTB competing against teams from ABA or clubs from countries that have very shallow basketball traditions playing against more experienced ones. Club's budget discrepancies and uneven talent level should create some really interesting situations.

FIBA Cup: Elan Chalon -3.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

Chalon is probably the hottest team in French league right now (4-0 SU/ATS in L4). They beat some struggling teams (Le Mans, Nancy, Le Havre) but also some really good ones like Limoges. The core of Chalon roster is made of four solid US-born players. Rest of the roster is consisting of very talented young players aged 19-23 led by sharpshooter Kalinoski, who came from Davidson and is playing very well in France. Gussing Knights is number one team in Austrian league, representing Austria in European cups on regular basis. Knights won't be able to match the talent level Chalon head coach has at his disposal. Chalon -3.5.

FIBA Cup: KTP-Basket. +6.5 - 1 unit (1.92)

KTP is currently dead last in Finnish league standings. KTP played very poorly in last Eurochallenge season (only one win, quickly eliminated) but at least they had won an opening home game vs Biella. I think KTP and Radom are even when it comes to basketball talent. Oddsmaker making Radom a -6.5 point road favorite set a trap for square bettors. KTP as basketball organization has much more experience in international competition than Radom which will be playing for the first time in intl. cups and already as big favorite. This is pure nonsense, especially after Radom posted 0-4 ATS record in Polish league up to date (Radom is also 0-4 ATS as favorite). KTP-Basket. +6.5.

Eurocup: Volgograd -1.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Neptunas is disappointing this season. Lithuanian team played in Euroleague last season and had bigger budget. Having less money is hurting them now (3-4 SU, 2-4 ATS in LKL and 0-2 SU in Eurocup). Neptunas is also not playing well at home (0-2 ATS). Six days ago Volgograd parted ways with head coach Bolshakov (Dirk Bauermann has returned as Krasny Oktyabr head coach). Volgograd is 3-1 ATS in away games in VTB league. This VTB league team is accustomed to playing against much stronger teams than Klaipeda and I'm expecting them to be extra motivated for traditional rivalry game as always when a Russian team is playing a Lithuanian team. Volgograd -1.5.

Eurocup: ALBA Berlin +1.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

It's so weird to see such a good team as ALBA in an underdog role. Perhaps it's because Le Mans has finally turned their season around - they are 3-0 SU and ATS in last three games after loosing previous three. Those numbers may be misleading though as the wins were registered against not-so-good teams like Rouen, Brindisi and Dunkerque. ALBA is coming off a win at Giessen and ALBA is 3-1 ATS in such spot. Both teams are trending under - Le Mans is 0-3 O/U as home fav. and 1-4 overall (in ProA), Berlin is 1-2 O/U in road games and 2-4 O/U overall (in German league). Betting on total under 149 points might also be a good choice. Berlin +1.5.

Eurocup: Belgacom Spirou Charleroi +10.5 - 1 unit (1.92)

Charleroi - because of its depth and offensive prowess - is great in an underdog role, especially when oddsmakers are making them double digit dogs (3-0 ATS in such spot last season in Eurocup). I'm expecting them to cover versus Venezia like they did against Zaragoza. Venezia failed to cover in both its Eurocup games. Venezia also isn't that intimidating at home like they were last season and Belgian team should be extra motivated after losing both its games in Eurocup. Charleroi +10.5.
 
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Chalon -3.5 - W
KTP +6.5 - L
Volgograd -1.5 - L
Berlin +1.5 - W
Charleroi +10.5 - W

Oct.28th 3-2 (+0.78u)

Season: 44-36-2 (+4.95u)
 
Euroleague: Zalgiris +7 - 1 unit (1.95)

Zalgiris is having a great season so far - 8 wins and 5-3 ATS record in Euroleague and Baltic league combined. Their roster is looking like Lithuania's national team strengthened with some nice international additions (Hanlan, Motum, Vougioukas). They will be playing today without C Javtokas, who is having back spasms. Both teams have good defense and play on fairly slow pace which may help the underdog to keep the score close and to cover. If away team plays it smartly, they shouldn't have any problems covering. Zalgiris +7.

Euroleague: Panathinaikos TT O71.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

Panathinaikos played great in a win over Pinar a week ago. Team total of 71.5 seems in their range, although we may have to wait till last minute of 4th quarter to surpass that line. In previous EL season against Barcelona Panathinaikos scored 69 points on the road and 77 points at home. Now Greek side has better players and Barcelona is playing very subpar basketball, both on offense and on defense. After losing in EL season opener to Pinar, Barcelona barely won 78:72 at home vs Zielona Gora (as 20-point fav.). Barcelona is giving up 70+ points to opposing teams on regular basis. Panathinaikos TT Over 71.5.
 
Zalgiris +7 - W
Panathinaikos TT O71.5 - L

Oct.29th: 1-1 (-0.05u)

Season: 45-37-2 (+4.90u)

BBL: Tubingen +4.5 - 1 unit (1.96)

On week 2 of BBL Bayreuth was favored at home over Braunschweig by one point. They lost by 47 (!!). Now as a home team they are favored by 4.5 points over Tubingen, a team that has posted very similar numbers to Braunschweig's. Bayreuth is ranked 17th in BBL in both - DRtg and ORtg category. Tubingen is in the middle of the pack in BBL in those advanced statistical categories. Bayreuth won only one game as favorite (versus Mitteldeutscher, who is 0-6 SU). Tubingen has bad ATS record as road dog (0-2 ATS) but it can change after the game with Bayreuth. Tubingen +4.5

Adriatic League: Mega Vizura/Nikisic Under 149.5 - 1 unit (1.92)

Unders are hitting at unprecedented rate in Adriatic League this season. Betting on overs just doesn't make any sense in currrent situation. Vizura is known by many as good offensive team, full of young players that like to run and shoot but in this season Vizura is just 2-5 O/U. Only twice Mega Vizura passed 80 pts mark (vs Skopje and Zadar). Line was pushed from 145.5 to 149.5 and now it is looking over inflated. Home team is coming off a win at Sentjur and in that spot O/U is 1-3. Away team is coming off a loss at Aleksandrovac and in that spot O/U is also 1-3. Mega Vizura/Nikisic Under 149.5.

Euroleague: Strasbourg +8 - 1 unit (1.90)

Strasbourg is 3-0 SU/ATS since horrible defeat in Belgrade (81:59). Vincent Collet is once again proving he is a great head coach. Strasbourg is not only winning but winning big (by 11 points at Pau, by 21 vs Fenerbahce and by 18 vs Le Havre). Win over Fenerbahce was very impressive. Bayern Munich also likes to crush opponents, especially at home, so a 8 point handicap shouldn't be perceived as disrespectful. In many advanced statistical categories those teams are even, so 8 points may be enough to cover. Strasbourg +8 (bought half point).

 
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After yesterday reverse sweep (aaargh underdogs) I decided to ride some really hot teams. Giresun and Aris look particularly strong.

A1: Aris -5.5 - unit (1.95)

No need to overthink that. Aris is a better team and Lavrio will be playing fourth A1 game in its history. Aris is awesome against the spread (7-0 overall in Greek Cup, Greek A1 and Eurocup combined). They covered against some really solid teams like Trabzonspor, PAOK, Buducnost, Unics Kazan and AEK. Lavrio is 0-3 SU and 3-0 ATS but those ATS wins came against teams like Kavala, AEK and Kifisia. Aris will be on 2-day rest, while Lavrio will be after full week of preparations. Aris -5.5.

ProA: Antibes +1 - 1 unit (1.92)

Le Havre is having huge problems both winning and covering. Le Havre is the coldest team in ProA (0-5 SU/ATS). On Tuesday they won a game in FIBA Europe Cup against Kapfenberg (and covered). We shouldn't be making much out of this as Kapfenberg is on French ProB talent level at best. Le Havre and Antibes have similar budget size, the difference is Antibes is playing surprisingly well for a promoted team (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS). Antibes already covered against some decent teams like Monaco, Strasbourg, Orleans and Chalons. Antibes +1.

TBL: Yesil Giresun -3 - 1 unit (1.94)

Turk Telekom started the season 0-2 SU/ATS in Turkish Super Ligi. Last season they won 15 games and advanced to play-offs, so it looks like Turk Telekomm is underachieving. Giresun has stronger lineup from top to bottom. And their players are proving their value on the court. Turk Telekom has second to last DRtg in TBL (ranked 15th at 128.4). Giresun is ranked 5th in that category at 104.4. Both teams have played with Besiktas. Giresun scored 79 on them at home and have won, while Turk Telekom - also at home - had scored 65 and lost. This may serve as an indication of what is going to happen today. Giresun -3.0.

Scoore League: Oostende -11.5 - 1 unit (1.92)

Telnet Oostende won and covered in all 4 games after season opening road loss at Brussels. Oostende is on fire right now - the team is playing fast paced basketball and is scoring tons of points (80+ in each game they have played up to date), they have roster depth that let them compete with anybody in Belgium. Although Aalstar is having six US-born players, they will not be able to keep up with home team. Oostende has advantage in all key areas - roster strength, average height and experience. Aalstar is coming off a loss at Mons (84:78), Telnet crushed Mons three weeks ago by 41 points. Oostende -11.5.

PLK: Anwil Wloclawek -3 - 1 unit (1.94)

After winning 11 games last season Wloclawek signed some solid players who played in much stronger leagues than Polish league - in ACB, A1, TBL and those guys immediately proved they can be very productive. One of the new players - G Jelinek recently scored 39 points in a game. Anwil is on top of the standings after three wins against Zgorzelec, Radom and Ostrow. On Oct.22nd Wloclawek signed C Bristol, who previously played for Kifisia. Bettors are backing home dog (line moved from +4,5 to +3) but I'm skeptical that home team will be able to handle Anwil offensive pressure. My numbers are telling me Wloclawek is going to win by 15 points. Wloclawek -3.
 
Aris -5.5 - W
Antibes +1 - W
Giresun -3 - W
Oostende -11.5 - W
Wloclawek - L

Oct.31st: 4-1 (+2.73u)

Season: 49-41-2 (+4.63u)
 
ACB: Bilbao/Malaga Over 149.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

Both teams certainly have offensive capabilities but somehow they are both 0-3 O/U in ACB. Total of 149.5 points is at the lowest level in recent years. H2H history shows that when those two teams play they like to score a lot. Unfortunately Bilbao is ranked 12th in ORtg (101.2), Malaga is ranked 14th (98.6). Those numbers aren't impressive and may be misleading - it's only Week 4 of ACB. And sooner than later Bilbao and Malaga will be playing better bball than Manresa, Andorra, Murcia or Canarias, who all are ranked higher in ORtg category. Over 149.5.

BBL: Bamberg/Ulm Over 157.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

Week ago Bamberg won with Oldenburg and the game went over the total. I'm expecting similar outcome today, as Ulm plays similar brand of basketball as Oldenburg. Ulm players like to shoot and generally don't care about defense (Ulm is allowing opponents to score 83.3 points on avg.). Away team might be fatigued after Euroleague road game with CSKA. This will make life a little bit easier for Ulm on the offensive end. Home court advantage also should count for Ulm. Bamberg still has number 1 offense in BBL (ORtg 123.3). Over 157.5.

Lega A: Trento +3 - 1 unit (1.96)

Trento is 3-0 SU/ATS in L3 games (vs ok teams - Oldenburg, Brindisi, Nanterre). Trento is 2-0 ATS in away games and 3-0 ATS as underdog. Avellino is 0-3 SU in last 3 games and 0-3-1 ATS in last 4 games (vs Pesaro, Reggio Emilia, Milan and Pistoia). Avellino scored more than 70 points only once. Trento won its last three games by 11, 10 and 15 points which shows they are working on their defense. Trento +3.

VTB: Loimaa/Kazan Under 159 - 1 unit (1.93)

Finnish team is 1-4 O/U (0-2 O/U at home) in VTB league. They scored 62 vs Khimki, 69 vs Nizhny Novgorod, 70 vs Kuban. First five Kazan games of the season ended over the total. Since then, next two fall under the total (Kazan went 0-2 ATS vs Saratov and Aris). Perhaps Kazan players are slowly hitting the wall - for them today's game vs Bisons will be 10th game played in last 30 days. Kazan will be on 3-day rest, Loimaa players had only 1 day to prepare and rest after game with Vilpas in Korisliiga. Under 159.
 
Bilbao/Malaga O149.5 - W
Trento +3 - L
Bamberg/Ulm O157.5 - W
Loimaa/Kazan U159 - L

2-2- (-0.14u)

Season: 51-43-2 (+4.49u)
 
I'm backing dogs today. I'm not feeling very confident about those picks, but a 2-1 result would be ok, I think.

LegaA: Juvecaserta +5 - 1 unit (1.94)

How a team which is 1-3 can be favored over a team that is 3-1? Both teams are 1-3 ATS in Italian Lega A. Both score on average 62 points. Opposing teams score 72 versus Bologna, while Juvecaserta is giving up only 66. Total posted for this game is at 142.5, which means that the underdog has really good chance to cover in low scoring game. Wrong team is favored - it should be Juvecaserta at -3 or close to pk, not Bologna at -5. Bologna is 0-2 as favorite, 0-2 when coming off a loss and 0-2 as home fav. Juvecaseta +5.

PRO A: Orleans +8 - 1 unit (1.93)

Backing Orleans on the road a year ago would be a bad idea but times has changed and Dunkerque is not that good at home anymore. Orleans is an improved team - with better than Dunkerque shooting percentage and rebound stats (Orleans is very good at crashing the offensive board which should result in additional possessions). They should be able to score and prevent Dunkerque from building the big lead. One thing that is worrisome is bad spot in which Orleans will find itself today - they are 0-3 ATS after a win. Eight points is worth taking though. If they do not cover it will be on Orleans players. Orleans +8.

VTB: Nizhny Novgorod +6.5 - 1 unit (1.94)

Nizhny Novgorod was able to cover vs CSKA and Volgograd (something Khimki has failed to do), so it should be possible for home team to cover against overrated and overpayed Khimki team. It is not easy to defeat Novgorod at home and even a team like Khimki may have some trouble to win by 7 or more. There is some kind of rivalry between those teams, so it should be a close game. Khimki is 0-2 ATS as away favorite in VTB and Eurocup. Nizhny Novgorod +6.5.
 
Juvecaserta +5 - W
Orleans +8 - L
Nizhny Novgorod +6.5 - W

Nov. 2nd: 2-1 (+0.88u)

Season 53-44-2 (+5.37u)

Two entertaining games and one big disappointment. I told you all, Caserta should have been favored. Tuesday picks coming soon.
 
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ABA: Partizan +13 - 1 unit (1.91)

Partizan waived F Milutinovic and C Kouzeloglou and replaced them with G Andjusic and C Jones. Team got little better but still failed to register a win versus Krka at home (one point loss). Crvena Zvezda has its own problems (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS in L4 games). That stretch includes loss at Aleksandrovac and home court loss vs Ljubljana. This team was unable to cover as 16 and 18 point underdog in recent Euroleague games and now we have them as 13 point fav. (line opened at -9.5). The line is overinflated. Yikes! Let's look at recent head-to-head record between those teams. Crvena Zvezda played with Partizan eleven times in 2015. Crvena won by 4, 3, 14, 10, 16, 8, 10, 9 and 9 points. Partizan won two games by 2 and 14 points. I think, in this matchup of struggling teams, Partizan have a really good chance to cover. Partizan +13.

Eurocup: Reggio Emilia/Le Mans Over 150 - 1 unit (1.95)

Le Mans fixed their problems as they are 4-1 SU/ATS in last four games in ProA and Eurocup. Le Mans not only improved its defense but is also better at scoring (92, 84, 73, 72, 79 points in L5 gm's). They posted those numbers vs good teams like Alba Berlin and on the road (at Chalons, at Brindisi). It's a good sign before the game at Reggio Emilia. Italian team is finally back at home after three road games. Reggiana is 3-1 O/U in Lega A and 2-1 O/U in Eurcup. They are also 2-0 O/U as home fav., as well as 2-0 O/U after a win. Reggio Emilia/Le Mans Over 150 points.

Baltic League: Kedainai Nevezis -1 - 1 unit (1.95)

If I'm correct line opened at pk, then moved to -1. No surprise here - Nevezis is better in all advanced stat categories, including eFG%, OREB%, AST%, ORtg, DRtg. Talinna Kalev will be trying to put up a fight against Nevezis, as home team is still looking for their first win in Baltic League (0-2 SU/ATS). Home court advantage may not be sufficient though. Nevezis -1.

FIBA Cup Europe: AEK Larnaca/ Rovinari Over 151 - 1 unit (1.91)

AEK Larnaca made some noise in Week 1 of FIBA Cup, when they lost on the road after aclose game in Astana against VTB team. Bookmakers immediately made them favorites in Week 2 versus Romanian club from Rovinari. I think in this case bookmakers are asking for Larnaca money. Basketball savants know that Rovinari is a solid team, and Romanian Divizia A isn't a bad league. Some Romanian clubs have bigger budgets and better players than other eastern European leagues. And to see Rovinari as an underdog versus a team from Cyprus is kind of weird. Rovinari is just 1-4 in Divizia A (I'm not sure why excatly), so I'm going to take a safer approach and bet on over as both teams like to score. AEK Larnaca/ Rovinari Over 151.

FIBA Cup Europe: Chalon/Den Bosch Over 151.5 - (1.94)

Chalon's offense is unbelievable - they scored 95 points vs Le Mans, 87 vs Le Havre, 99 at Nancy, 99 at Gussing and 87 at Rouen. If Den Bosch will be able to score at least 70 points, an over should hit easily. Chalon/Den Bosch Over 151.5
 
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Some really bad beats happened today (Partizan) and some bad decisions were taken (Over instead underdog in AEK/Rovinari game). I will regain those three units.

Partizan +13 - L
Reggio Emilia/Le Mans Over 150 - W
Nevezis -1 - L
AEK/Rovinari - Over 151 - L
Chalon/Den Bosch Over 151.5 - L

Nov.3rd: 1-4 (-3.05u)

Season: 54-48-2 (+2.32u)
 
Eurocup: AEK Athens -1.5 - 1 units (1.91)

This will be a clash of two teams which are 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three games. AEK has potential to compete with good teams - the win over Nizhny Novgorod proves it. Greek team is 3-1 ATS as favorite (in A1). AEK is playing some solid defense - currently is ranked 2nd in DRtg in A1. Hapoel is also having great season, like AEK they are 4-0 SU in their domestic league. The home court advantage will be decisive factor in this game. Hapoel is not playing well in road games - Israelis lost big in Russia and Turkey and I'm expecting another collapse in Greece. AEK -1.5.

Eurocup: Charleroi +7 - 1 unit (1.95)

Nancy is in huge crisis - 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS in ProA and Eurocup. It's a miracle Alain Weisz didn't lost his job yet. Nancy covered as 7 and 8 point underdog vs Valencia and at Venezia (respectively). Now we have them as 7 point home favorite over a team that is fighting for every point even when they are loosing by 20 (like in game vs Zaragoza). The problem with Charleroi is we are not getting them as double digit favs like before and they lost last two road games in a row (at Venezia and at Mons). So maybe Charleroi players are finally getting tired. They will be forced to play their third road game in 8-day span. Nancy is horrible defensively though and Belgium team has deep roster. Charleroi +7.

Eurocup: Alba Berlin/Gran Canaria Under 153 - 1 unit (1.95)

Alba Berlin and Gran Canaria are known for its stingy defense. Alba has best DRtg in BBL (94.0), while Gran Canaria has number one ranked defense in ACB (91.4). Alba is 2-4 O/U overall in BBL. Gran Canaria is 1-3 O/U in ACB. All three games Gran Canaria had played in Eurocup ended over the total but this time the final O/U result should be different. Under 153.
 
Another day, another bad beat.

AEK -1.5 - L
Charleroi +7 - W
Berlin/Gran Canaria Under 153 - L

Nov.4th 1-2 (-1.05u)

Season: 55-50-2 (+1.27)
 
Euroleaue: Strasbourg +17.5 - 1 unit (1.92)

Khimki Moscow is 1-4 ATS in last four games. They lost 3 of last 5 games (at CSKA, at Munich, at N.Novgorod). Russian club has one of the biggest budgets among European clubs but is underachieving. Strasbourg is awful on the road but they lost in places very tough to play - in Belgrade (by 22 points) and in Munchen (by 15 points). Khimki is not that good on defense, so for French team it should be a little easier to score. For the first time in this season Strasbourg will be double digit underdog. Struggling Khimki may have trouble covering such a big number. Strasbourg +17.5

Euroleague: Bamberg/Tel Aviv Over 155 - 1 unit (1.95)

Maccabi Tel Aviv is in huge crisis - they lost not only to CSKA and Malaga in Euroleague but also to Hapoel Jerusalem and Hapoel Holon in domestic league. Rumors are floating about possible firing of head coach Guy Goodes. Victor Faverani was recently waived. Maccabi desperately needs a win to turn around its season - this means they will score. Bamberg has highly efficient offense and is also going to score a lot like always when they play at home. This is going to be a shootout unless Goodes and Trinchieri came up with game plans that emphasize defense. Bamberg/Tel Aviv Over 155.
 
Strasbourg +17.5 - L
Berlin/Tel Aviv Over 155 - L

Nov.5th: 0-2 (-2.00u)

Season 55-52-2 (-0.73u)

Euroleague: Barcelona -5.5 - 1 unit (1.92)

Barcelona impressed at home against Panathinaikos. On Sunday they crushed Gipuzkoa 97:61. That was their 5th win in a row. Zalgiris is 3-0 in Euroleague and 7-0 in LKL. They are 3-0 SU and ATS in last three games. In previous season Barcelona won in Kaunas 72:83. Kaunas is having very successful season so far but the team lacks on-court leader / go-to guy and their point guards don't possess court vision necessary to compete with teams playing good defense. Lack of athleticism and slow pace of play is going to doom Kaunas at some point. With the right attitude and effort Barcelona shouldn't have any problems wining and covering. Barcelona won last 13 games with Zalgiris. Barcelona -5.5.

Euroleague: Panathinaikos -7 - 1 unit (1.98)

Panathinaikos will be looking to rebound from a tough road loss at Barcelona. Zielona Góra is 0-3 ATS in last three games, they are ranked 15th in DRtg in Polish league (!), Panathinaikos has budget at least 6x bigger. Anything other than double digit Panathinaikos win would mean something is wrong with this team. A loss may further complicate Panathinaikos situation in Group C (currently 5th place). Panathinaikos -6.5.
 
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Scooore League: Oostende -4.5 - 1 unit (1.92)

Telnet Oostende is 5-1 ATS in Belgian Scooore league. In October Oostende had fabulous stretch of 7 SU and ATS wins. They will be playing on short, one day rest after win vs Swedish team from Sodertalje in FIBA Europe Cup. They didn't cover as -13.5 points favs (lookahead spot before today game?) but Telner has very deep roster with 12 solid players, so Dario Gjergija will have many options. Telnet is 3-0 ATS as home favorite, 4-0 ATS after a win and 5-1 ATS as fav. Their oponent - Limbourg is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in Belgian league. They are 2-1 ATS in road games, 2-0 ATS as an underdog and 2-0 after a win. Those stats show that Limbourg is a dangerous team. For the first time in current season Oostende will be favored by less than 8.5 point. Oostende -4.5.
 
Barcelona -5.5 - W
Panathinaikos -7 - L
Oostende -4.5 - L

Nov 6th: 1-2 (-1.08u)

Season: 56-54-2 (-1.81u)

A1: Kolossos Rhodes -7 - 1 unit (1.97)

Kolossos Rhodes have started this season with three road games and it will be only their second home game. They are 2-2 SU and ATS. Last season Kolossos was above average against the spread at home (8-5 ATS). Arkadikos struggled mightily in its first four games in A1 (1-4 SU, 2-2 ATS), although a week ago they finally got their first win at AGOR Rethymno. Arkadikos is ranked last in eFG% and in rebounds avg. in Greek A1. Kolossoss should win this game in double digits. Kolossos -7.

ProA: Pau-Lacq-Orhez +9 - 1 unit (1.91)

Spread close to 9 seems a little too high, maybe bookmakers want to make sure Le Mans will not get their fourth ATS win in a row in ProA. What's interesting in all last four ProA games Le Mans was favored by exactly -1.5 point. Now line open at -8.5. That's a significant jump. Pau is not playing that bad. They had some very bad looking losses (at Paris-Levallois by 24 points) but overall team from Southern France is 3-3 SU nd ATS. Pau is coming off hard fought OT win vs Nancy (108:104). Home team will be on short 3 day rest after Eurocup road game in Reggio Emilia, while Pau had full week to prepare for this game. Pau-Lacq-Orhez +9

ABA: Buducnost Podgorica -3.5 - 1 unit (1.91)

Partizan Belgrade is 0-3 ATS in their last three games (2-6 ATS overall, 1-4 ATS as dog and 1-4 ATS after a loss. Those numbers sums up current state of the team. They are coming off embarrassing loss to Crvena Zvezda. Buducnost is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. They are 5-1 ATS as fav. and 3-1 ATS when coming off a win. A win over Kazan in Eurocup 3 days ago should boost team morale. A season ago Buducnost have won both games with Partizan - road game in Belgrade by 11 points (as 4.5 point underdog). Buducnost Podgorica -3.5

Scoore: Verviers/Mons Over 161.5 - 1 unit (1.92)

Verviers is 5-0 O/U (4-0 O/U as dog). Verviers has DRtg of 117.1 and ORtg of 113.3. Mons is also good at offense (ORtg of 115.5) and bad at defense (DRtg of 109.3). Both teams have high eFG% at 55%. Verviers is ranked 2nd in play pace in Belgian league. This numbers indicate it will be a high scoring game. Verviers/Mons Over 161.5

TBL: Demir Insaat Büyükçekmece +5.5 - 1 unit (1.92)

Büyükçekmece - like Giresun - is pretty impressive so far. They will be tested at Gaziantep. On October 24th Büyükçekmece won at Trabzonspor, which proves that this new team in Turkish league can play with anybody (except powerhouses like Efes, Fenerbahce, Galatasaray, etc.). Gaziantep is one of the worst teams in Super Ligi (1-3). They have posted very unimpressive numbers so far and playing midweek games in FIBA Cup takes away from them precious time and energy. Today Gaziantep will face a well rested and prepared team that is looking for another upset. Büyükçekmece +5.5.
 
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Kolossos -7 - W
Pau +9 - W
Podgorica -3.5 - L
Büyükçekmece +5.5 - L
Verviers/Mons Over 161.5 L

Nov. 7th: 2-3 (-1.12u)

Season: 58-57-2 (-2.93u)

ACB: Bilbao +1 - 1 unit (1.95)

Bilbao loss in Eurocup against Olimpia Ljubljana was just an accident. Bilbao is 3-1 ATS in ACB (2-0 ATS away) and before loss to Slovenian team Bilbao was on 5-0 ATS streak. Road wins against German teams - Bonn and Oldenburg should give Bilbao players extra confidence. They will bounce back vs Murcia which is also 3-1 ATS. Murcia got their first win at Sevilla and can find itself in possible letdown spot. None team has an advantage in stats, this will be a very close game in which spot/psychology may be decisive factor. Bilbao +1.

ACB: Zaragoza/Joventud Under 154.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

Only once in recent history of meetings between Zaragoza and Joventud total of 155 points was reached. Both those teams are bad on defense but they are also so-so at shooting (eFG% around 50%). They are among the tallest teams in Europe at 6'7'' / 201cm avg. The combination of length around the rim and mediocre shooting percentage should result in low scoring game. Zaragoza/Joventud Under 154.5

ProA: Limoges -2.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Nancy have lost 10 consecutive games in ProA and EuroCup. Nancy is 2-8 ATS in last 10 games. It's mind blowing how inept this team has become. Nancy detailed record against the spread in ProA is brutal: 0-6 ATS, 0-3 at home, 0-4 as favorite, 0-2 as dog, 0-5 after a lost game. Combination of washed up players and inexperienced youngsters is killing this club. Usually rosters constructed around mix of experience and youth have leadership issues and the locker room is often deeply divided between groups of players. Limoges will have a chance to strongly bounce back after bad looking loss in Piraeus. Limoges is 3-0 after a loss in ProA. Limoges -2.5

Super Ligi: Yesilgiresun +10.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

Darussafaka is playing slow tempo basketball and it will be difficult for them to cover as double digit favorite. Darussafaka failed to cover as -6.5 fav vs Gaziantep and as -7.5 point fav. vs Usak. Both those teams should be ranked lower than Giresun. Darussafaka will be on short 2 day rest after Euroleague game with CSKA. On Thursday Darussafaka will play with Maccabi Tel Aviv in Euroleague. Today's game is a potential lookahead spot for the home team. Yesilgiresun +10.5
 
Bilbao +1 - L
Zaragoza/Joventud Under 154.5 - W
Limoges -2.5 - L
Yesilgiresun +10.5 - W

Nov.8th: 2-2 (-0.10u)

Season: 60-59-2 (-3.03u)

VTB: CSKA -4.5 - 1 unit (1.90)

Lokomotiv Kuban is one of the few Russian teams that managed to beat CSKA in last two years. They did it 4 times and in four other meetings Kuban has lost but by less than 5 points, which means they covered. Are they really that good or it was just luck? Kuban covered in first game a season ago because they started their campaign red hot 4-0 ATS. And they won second game with CSKA because team from Moscow was on 1 day rest after an overtime game with Nizhny Novgorod. So I would say Kuban took advantage of CSKA slow start to the season and the challenging schedule. Khryapa injury shouldn't be a problem for CSKA as they have depth - Vorontsevitch, Fridzon, Korobkov and Kurbanov will spend additional minutes on the court. Yes, CSKA failed to cover as road favorite twice but they are also 3-1 ATS after a win (in VTB). CSKA Moscow -5.

LegaA: Sassari - 1.5 - 1 unit (1.90)

Bookmakers were overreacting when they made Avellino so small dog against struggling Sassari. They're creating false impression that mediocre team like Avellino can compete with top teams in Italy. I successfully backed Sassari against Varese when they found themselves in similar spot after big loss in Euroleague to CSKA. Now they are coming off another horrible beat down at Malaga. And I'm expecting them to rebound one more time. Today's game like the one against Varese will be also on TV - Sassari players are perfectly aware of this, there won't be any letdowns. Sassari is 2-0 as road favorite. Three weeks ago Avellino was a +4.5 home underdog to Milan and they lost 60:83. Sassari -1.5.
 
CSKA -4.5 - W
Sassari -1.5 - W

Nov. 9th: 2-0 (+1.8u)

Season: 62-59-2 (-1.23u)

Eurocup: Nizhny Novogrod +9.5 - 1 unit (1.94)

Galatasaray is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in Eurocup. They slipped at Usak in Turkish Super Ligi (73:71) on Saturday. Before that loss they have covered in six straight games. Galatasaray roster is looking very impressive. Nizhny Novgorod failed to cover in its last two games (vs Neptunas, vs Volgograd) but they were almost double digit favorites in both those games and the line wasn't balanced. Novgorod has at least two quality wins this season (CSKA, Khimki), so this is not a bad team and as double digit dog they are worth looking at, even on the road at Istanbul. For a several hours it was possible to bet on them at +11. Keep an eye on the line before the game, it may have some more value. Nizhny Novogrod +9.5

Eurocup: Gran Canaria -9.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

This pick may look square but Gran Canaria at home is a special team. Once they build a lead, they're not going to let it slip out. Home team will be without F Kuric who had brain surgery recently. I would like to remind that other Italian team - Brindisi - have lost there by 27 points and Ludwigsburg have lost by 20 points. I put it that way - Gran Canaria players are feeling uncomfortable if they don't win in double digit at home and their fans always appreciate those kind of outcomes. Reggio Emilia players have to show up at their finest, otherwise Gran Canaria is going to beat a living crap out of them. Reggio Emilia isn't a good road team - they have lost in Lega A at Capo d'Orlando and Cremona (two teams which, like Gran Canaria, like to play tight D). Gran Canaria -9.5.

FIBA Cup: Rovinari +3.5 - 1 unit (1.94)

Rovinari is underrated in my opinion and Astana is a public team. And the public may already forgot that Astana had played with Rovinari in Eurocup in February and lost to them on the road. Astana is playing some horrendous basketball - they failed to cover in 6 straight VTB and FIBA Cup games before they finally lost straight up to struggling Riga by 1 point and covered as +6.5 point road dog. Now we have them as road favorites (!) versus Romanian Rovinari who is in FIBA Cup 2-0 SU and ATS (versus Prishtina and Larnaca). Astana played with both those teams and failed to cover in both cases. Rovinari +3.5.
 
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Eurocup: Aris +6.5 - 1 unit (1.91)

Aris streak of 8 ATS wins has ended when they failed to cover vs Steaua (in Eurocup) and Trikala (in Greek A1). I wouldn't made much out of those ATS losses as bookmakers made Aris in both those games double digit favorites. Currently Aris is still on 7 win streak in all leagues/cups they are taking part. Aris will be +6.5 road underdog at Banvit. Aris is 3-1 ATS after a win, 2-0 ATS in away games (both in Eurocup and A1) and 2-0 ATS as dog in Eurocup. Banvitspor is not playing good basketball. The club located in Bandirma is just 2-5 SU and ATS in Eurocup and Turkish league. They played some really good teams though - Kazan, Fenerbahce, Efes and Trabzonspor (twice). This line is not balanced, Banvitspor may have problems covering this spread. Aris +6.5.

Eurocup: St.Petersburg -2 - 1 unit (2.00)

Zenit St.Petersburg roster may look mediocre on paper. The players Zenit has signed during the off-season are not well known yet but those guys have already establish themselves in other leagues as distinctive, high upside type of players (SF Timma) or simply entering their prime (G Dowdelll, G Toolson, C Landry). And the Russian players Zenit has currently on its roster were chosen using the same quality & efficiency criteria. The effects of roster build that way are amazing up to date - Zenit is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in VTB and 4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS in Eurocup. This team is in all top advanced stats categories in VTB. The only issue remaining is the defense, they definitely need to work on that aspect of the game. Besiktas is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in last five games in Europe and Turkey. But all those wins were registered against mediocre and simply struggling teams. Besiktas have lost to Saratov at home 79:103 in Week 2 of Eurocup. Zenit have defeated Saratov on the road 90:85 in Week 1 of the Eurocup. The line the oddsmakers have put seems soft. St.Petersburg -2

Eurocup: Lietuvos Rytas -1.5 - 1 unit (1.94)

PAOK is having terrible season. Club from Thessaloniki is 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS overall in Eurocup and A1 (1-3 SU and ATS in Eurocup). PAOK has 113.7 DRtg, opposing teams are scoring 83.8 points on average against them. PAOK has roster full of slow and old players who have no idea how to play defense or are too lazy to play D. Avtodor Saratov dropped 90 on them, Besiktas dropped 100 on them (on the road!). +1.5 point they are getting today will not be enough to cover if they don't fix their attitude. Lietuvos is also 1-3 SU/ATS in Eurocup. Lithuanian team is having trouble trying to figure out how to close a basketball games - they have lost two games in Europe by 4 and 5 points. The good thing is Lietuvos can score (87 vs Besiktas, 89 at Szolnoki, 81 vs Saratov). Lietuvos is 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS overall and 5-1 ATS as favorite in LKL). Lietuvos Rytas -1.5
 
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Eurocup: ALBA Berlin -3.5 - 1 unit (1.99)

ALBA Berlin players are playing exceptionally good on defense. They embraced Sasha Obradovic system so quickly that I'm a little bit worried if it is not too early - it's still five months to beginning of the play-offs in BBL. ALBA is 5-0 SU/ATS in last 5 games. Club detailed record is looking really impressive - in BBL they are 5-2 ATS overall & as fav., 3-1 ATS as away fav., 4-1 ATS after a win. In Eurocup ALBA is 3-1 SU/ATS. Enel Brindisi is a double identity team - good in Lega A at 4-2 SU/ATS but very bad in Eurocup (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS). Maybe Group B is too tough for them or the club doesn't care about winning outside Italian league. ALBA Berlin -3.5

FIBA Cup - Maccabi Rishon +1 - 1 unit (1.96)

Maccabi went head-to-head with two VTB teams that are playing in FIBA Cup - Kalev/Cramo and Enisey Krasnoyarsk. Maccabi have won with Kalev 81:92 on the road and lost 68:72 a close one with Enisey. This is a good sign, clearly Maccabi takes seriously games in Europe. Lukoil have lost to Enisey by 7 and won with Kalev by 2. Rishon is slightly better as advanced stats are showing Rishon has advantage in ORtg, eFG%, PPS (1.4 points to 1.2) but the sample may be too small after just two games. Maccabi Rishon +1
 
Such a pity Aris has collapsed in 4Q. Lietuvos proved one more time they can't win close games. At least I regained what I have lost previously. It's still two weeks to generate some pfofit in November.

Aris +6.5 - L
St.Petersburg -2 - W
Lietuvos Rytas -1.5 - L
ALBA Berlin -3.5 - W
Maccabi Rishon +1

Nov. 11th: 3-2 (+0.95u)

Season 67-62-2 (+0.60u)
 
Euroleague: Olympiacos +3 - 1 unit (1.98)

Efes needs a win after two consecutive losses in Euroleague. Cedevita Zagreb stunned them at home on October 29th and then they lost after OT at Vitoria on Nov. 5th. Efes won its last game in BSL vs Pinar at home but didn't cover as -6 point home favorite (a lookahead spot before today game?). Today they will be favored over last season's Euroleague finalist - Olympiacos. Greek team have won it's last 5 games. They went 4-1 against the spread in those. Whenever Olympiacos is in underdog role, it's always worth to look at them especially when they face inconsistent opponent. I would like to remind that Olympiacos went 7-2 ATS last season as an underdog and they have won 6 of those 9 games straight up. That's pretty impressive result. Olympiacos +3.
 
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All five underdogs have coverad today in Euroleague games. Too bad they decided to bark when I have limited myself to just one play.

Olympiacos +3 - W

Nov. 12th: 1-0 (+0.98u)

Season: 68-62-2 (+1.58u)
 
Euroleague: Unicaja Malaga +12 - 1 unit (1.94)

CSKA have crushed Maccabi Tel Aviv and Sassari when they played with them at home. We all know how bad those two teams are in this season - Sassari is a total mess and Maccabi just fired their coach (they lost at home yesterday). When a good team comes to Moscow though - it's a different story. Brose Bamberg covered rather easily as double digit dog and if a team from Germany could have covered, it shouldn't be a problem for a team from Spain. 12 points that is a lot at this level of competition. CSKA will be without F Khryapa and after very physical road game with Kuban. On Sunday CSKA will be playing with Kazan in VTB and three days later another road game in Euroleague. Do they really have to win by more than 12? Malaga is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three Euroleague games. Unicaja Malaga +12

ProA: Antibes -1.5 - 1 unit (1.99)

Everything is going smoothly for Antibes Sharks. They have 5-2 record and went 6-1 against the spread in French ProA. They are perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in last three games. Antibes is 4-0 ATS at home and 3-0 ATS as favorite. Not playing in any kind of competition outside ProA is a good thing for them as they have more than enough time to rest and prepare for every game. It can't be said about Le Mans though. Not only they had problems maintaining quality of the game, they simply couldn't catch a breath trying to win some games in Eurocup. Le Mans is coming off a OT home loss vs Ludwigsburg. They will be on short 2-day rest. Le Mans is 0-3 ATS in last three games and 1-5 ATS in last five games. All those ATS losses came against very solid teams (Berlin, Reggio Emilia, Pau-Orthez, Ludwigsburg). Antibes will be challenged at home but is in beter spot to cover than Le Mans. Antibes -1.5

ABA: Metalac Valjevo + 2 - 1 unit (1.94)

Tajfun Sentjur have covered in last three games. They shocked Olimpija Ljubljana on the road, beat very weak Hibernia in FIBA Cup and lost at Bakken Bears. Before they went 3-0 ATS they were on cold 0-7 ATS streak. Tajfun is coming off a loss and in that spot they are 2-6 against the spread. Metalac Valjevo is having OK season with SU record at 4-5 and 4-4-1 ATS. They were able to defeat Cibona, Krka and Zadar. Metalac is 2-2 ATS as road dog in Adriatic League. They are also 4-0 O/U as away underdog, which means they are not afraid to play home favs and are always looking to upset them. I like this kind of attitude. This will be a close, low scoring game, maybe unwatchable. Tajfun will be on short 2-day rest, Metalac had almost full week to prepare for this game. Metalac Valjevo + 2
 
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ProA: Lyon-Villeurbanne -4 - 1 unit (1.98)

Lyon won 7 games in a row in ProA and FIBA Cup. In ProA Lyon is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS. Lyon is coming off a win and in that spot they are 7-2 ATS in France and Europe. Orleans has made a big surprise in Week 7 when they won with Strasbourg. Orleans is 0-4 ATS when coming off a win. Both teams will be 'in their spot' today. Lyon-Villeurbanne -4

ProA: Nanterre -5 - 1 unit (1.90)

Nanterre registered bad stretch of four SU/ATS losses - two of those lost games were played in Eurocup and two other in ProA. Since then Nanterre is 2-0 SU/ATS. Nanterre somewhat resolved their problems. On Tuesday they crushed Bonn 101:78 in Eurocup. Le Havre is among the worst teams in ProA (0-7 SU and ATS overall, 0-3 ATS at home, 0-5 ATS as dog, 2-6 ATS after a loss. Le Havre is out of luck as they will be hosting a team that just regained its confidence and is rolling. Nanterre -5.

A1: Nea Kifisia +2 - 1 unit (1.91)

Kavala have lost last four games, they covered against the spread only once. And this result was achieved during the easier part of their schedule. Nea Kifisia has played with stronger teams and registered at least two valuable road wins against PAOK and Trikala. The team from Athens is already 2-0 ATS away and 2-0 ATS as an underdog. Kavala is 0-3 as home favorite. Nea Kifisia +2.

VTB: St.Petersburg -6.5 - 1 unit (1.94)

Zenit St.Petersburg is going to Finland for its 10th straight win. They are 8-1-1 ATS since the season has begun. Zenit is 3-0 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS as favorite. Last season Zenit have won both games with Bisons Loimaa by 15 and 13 points. Zenit is a hot team right now and a team to ride for bettors. St.Petersburg -6.5.
 
All today's games in French ProA were canceled due to recent terrorist attacks in Paris. What I have heard on tv there is a possibility that next basketball games will be played in France at earliest on Thursday or Friday. Not sure what is going to happen with Lyon, Nanterre and Chalon home games in Eurocup - all are scheduled for Tuesday.

Lyon -4 - P
Nanterre -5 - P
Nea Kifisia +2 - W
St.Petersburg -6.5 - W

Nov. 14th: 2-0-2 (+1.85u)

Season: 71-64-2 (+2.37u)
 
I'm going with the dogs today..

LKL: Siaulai +12.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

Siaulai is 0-2 as home underdog in Lithuanian LKL league. They failed to cover versus Zalgiris (lost by 14 as +13.5 dog) and Neptunas (lost by 7 as +5 dog). Those numbers are showing they were a little bit out of luck. Now they are getting almost 13 points today and it looks that this time they will cover. Siaulai is 2-0 SU/ATS in last 2 games. Lietuvos is 0-3 ATS in last three games (vs St.Petersburg, Prienai and PAOK). Recent losses might shaken Lietuvos Rytas players confidence. Home team should be pumped up after big wins over Inter Bratislava and Lietkabelis. Lietuvos doesn't really need to win today by 13 points, they just need to win - on Wednesday they will be playing in Eurocup with Besiktas on the road. Siaulai +12.5

LegaA: Juvecaserta +6 - 1 unit (1.95)

Very quietly Juvecaserta (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) have established themselves as the number 1 ranked defense in LegaA. Their DRtg is at 92.5, they have advantage in rebounding over Pistoia which is 5-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. Pistoia will be playing without F Thornton who is injured and will be out till mid-January. Caserta is 2-1 ATS on the road as an underdog (they covered at Varese and at Bologna and almost did it against Cremona). Juvecaserta +6

VTB: Vita Tbilisi +39 - 1 unit (1.93)

None other team is losing so many games in VTB league and none other is covering against the spread so easily like the Vita Tbilisi. Their current record is 0-7 SU and 4-3 ATS. Vita is 4-2 ATS after a loss. Usually they are underdogs in the range of 20-30 points but clearly the oddsmakers think that it will be not enough and installed them as +32.5 dogs. And then bettors pushed the line to +39 (yes, a 7.5 point swing). It means that Enisey - to register ATS win - has to win both halves of todays game by 20 points on average or each quarter by 10 points on average. Enisey has won 5 games up to date in VTB and FIBA Cup - vs Kalev by 7, vs Loimaa by 24, at Maccabi Rishon by 4, vs Lukoil by 7 and at Riga by 2 points. Enisey also already lost 4 games. Vita Tbilisi +39
 
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