European basketball season 2015/2016

Winner League: Maccabi Tel Aviv -4 - 1 unit (1.91)

Maccabi Tel Aviv have parted ways with head coach Guy Goodes and signed Zan Tabak (this is official news from earlier today). After recent struggles in Winner League and Euroleague I'm expecting gradual improvement of Maccabi on court performances. Every crisis has to end at some point and Maccabi as a powerhouse club with big budget at their disposal is in a position to bounce back strongly. They already turned the first page with win over Ironi Nes Ziona as -9.5 home favorite on Saturday. New head coach should bring some energy and new hope and I'm expecting that Maccabi will be playing today at their normal level we are used to. Maccabi Tel Aviv -4.
 
Maccabi Tel Aviv -4 - L

Nov.16th 0-1 (-1.00u)

Season: 73-66-2 (+2.32u)

FIBA Europe Cup: Rovinari +6 - 1 unit (1.95)

Prishtina lost by 15 at Rovinari in Week 1 of FIBA Cup as -1.5 favorite. Prishtina line opened at +1 and moved to -6. Team from Kosovo is 1-3 SU and 2-1 ATS. Rovinari is perefect 3-0 SU/ATS. I have Romanian Liga Nationala ranked higher than Kosovar Super League and I think we got here the classic situation of wrong team favored. In the first meeting between these teams we also had wrong team favored (Prishtina at -1.5). Moreover square bettors are now pushing the line towards the sphere that has virtually no value. Even if Prishtina wins this game, six points may be enough for Rovinari to cover against the spread. I'm pretty sure bookmakers love this crazy line movement. Rovinari +6

Winner League: Maccabi Haifa -5.5 - 1 unit (1.97)

Nine days ago Maccabi Haifa lost 74:64 with Bnei as -2.5 road favorite. I'm expecting a strong bounce back from that loss. Haifa is 2-0 as home favorite and 2-0 ATS when coming off a loss. Israeli teams aren't that good on defense so 95.8 DefRtg may seem mediocre but is actually the best in Winner League. Hapoel Holon is having bad season (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS). One of their wins was a very lucky one point win over Bnei. Holon is especially bad on the road, having trouble covering the spreads (0-2 as away dog). Haifa is a good home team. Maccabi Haifa -5.5.
 
Those who were able to lock Pieno at -5.5, Kalev at +11.5 or Bucaresti at +11 have really big chance of cashing their tickets. Unfortunately the lines moved really quickly.

Big card today.

Eurocup: Besiktas -5 - 1 unit (1.95)

On October 26th Besiktas head coach Henrik Dettmann got fired and since then the team won 5 games in Super Ligi and Eurocup. Today they will be playing Lietuvos rytas Vilnius, a week ago (after lost road game with PAOK) Lithuanian club fired their head coach - Marcelo Nicola. Lietuvos is 1-6 ATS in last 8 games in LKL and Eurocup. The main problems for them is lack of scorers/finesse players needed in closing moments of games. Lietuvos can stay in games till the end but can't close them, which is resulting in painful losses. It will take some time for the new head coach to fix their problems. Besiktas bounced back nicely after 24-point loss at Petersburg by winning with Anadolu Efes and I expect another win today. Besiktas -5

Eurocup: Aris/Trabzonspor Under 148.5 - 1 unit (1.97)

At the beginning of the season Aris played some exceptional defense, which resulted in low scoring games - Aris first four Eurocup games went under the total. They played so hard that it seems now they are running out of gas as their record shows they lost last two games and are 0-4 ATS in their last four. Tranzonspor is also trying to play tough on defense - without much success though (Trabzon is 3-2 SU). Four out of five Trabzonspor Eurocup games went under the total. Aris/Trabzonspor Under 148.5

Eurocup: Reggio Emilia +1 - 1 unit (1.96)

Enel Brindisi lost first encounter with Reggio Emilia in Eurocup on the road 82:79. In last season Reggio Emilia won both games with Enel in LegaA rather easily. Enel is a little bit unpredictable this season - in Italian league they got some wins versus struggling teams (Bologna, Sardegna, Cantu, Venezia) but lost with teams that are solid this season (Pistoia, Trento, Pesaro). It seems Enel doesn't care for Eurocup - they lost all 5 games and covered against the spread only in the first game at Reggio Emilia. Enel is not yet officially eliminated but will be soon. Reggio Emilia +1

FIBA Ccup: Enisey Krasnoyarsk -1 - 1 unit (1.97)

Enisey won with Lukoil at home 75:68. Enisey is 5-1 in last 6 games and in current form Russian team shouldn't have any problems winning in Sofia. A week ago Lukoil was a -1 favorite over Maccabi Rishon and lost by 14 points. Enisey Krasnoyarsk -1

FIBA Cup: Le Havre -5 - 1 point (1.98)

Le Havre is having horrible season so far. Normandie-based club lost all 7 games in ProA and failed to cover in all of them. In FIBA Cup they are 2-1 SU/ATS tough. Le Havre won first meeting with Kapfenberg 70:57 at home. The -5 point spread shouldn't be much of an obstacle even for a struggling team like Le Havre. They won't be playing any weaker teams than Kapfenberg, which I rate at the level of French ProB clubs. Other French team, Chalon which is also playing in FIBA Cup, have won recently with top Austrain team Gussing Knights on the road by 24 points. Le Havre -5
 
Horrible day to forget.

Besiktas -5 - L
Aris/Trabzonspor Under 148.5 - W
Reggio Emilia +1 - L
Enisey Krasnoyarsk -1 - L
Le Havre -5 - L

Nov.18th: 1-4 (-3.03u)

Season: 75-70-2 (-0.76u)
 
Euroleague: Olympiacos Piraeus +1 - 1 unit (1.98)

I already wrote this in my Efes-Olympiacos write-up: Olympiacos was 7-2 ATS last season as an underdog in Euroleague. And after a win over Anadolu Efes they are 8-2 ATS as dog, winning majority of those game outright. This is one of the most dangerous underdogs in European basketball. Greek team won with Zagreb 76:61 at home a month ago. Croatian team never won a game vs Olympiacos in recent history in any kind of competition (in last 5 years). Greeks are on a 7 game win streak in A1 and Euroleague. They have covered against the spread in 6 out of those 7 games. Cedevita is also on a win streak - 6-0 SU/ATS in last 6 games. It should be noted though that at least 3 out those wins came against struggling teams (Tajfun, Milan, Ljubljana). Cedevita opened as +5.5 home underdog and a big move caused by very optimistic bettors pushed the line to -1 (!), making the home team a favorite over Final Four finalist. In my opinion the opening line was more balanced than current number on board. Sudden Zagreb improvement is kind of Cinderella story but I'm not going to invest my money in emotions and I would rather trust the numbers. Olympiacos Piraeus +1

Euroleague: Pinar Karsiyaka +14 - 1 unit (1.92)

The number is where it should be. I handicapped it at -14 for home team using median and adjusting for home court advantage (-13.5 was the opening line). Yet, I have a serious doubt about Barcelona covering against the spread. Sure it's a revenge game for club from Catalonia as they lost in Izmir 71:62 a month ago. Barcelona won last 8 games in a row in ACB and Euroleague, so they are a hot team, no doubt. The main problem is the spread: -14 means the bookmakers see Pinar on the same talent level as other teams that Barcelona played with -- Zaragoza (-16.5 Barcelona's ATS L), Sevilla (-12.5, ATS W), Gipuzkoa (-18.5, ATS W), Andorra (-11.5, ATS W), Monbus (-16.0, ATS L). I believe Pinar is better than each of those teams. The second problem is: on Sunday Barcelona will be playing a game in ACB at Laboral Kutxa Vitoria, so today they need to manage their energy and save some of it for the upcoming ACB meeting. Today's game looks like a lookahead spot for Barcelona. Pinar Karsiyaka +14
 
Olympiacos Piraeus +1 - W
Pinar Karsiyaka +14 - L

Nov.19th: 1-1 (-0.02u)

Season: 76-71-2 (-0.78u)

ABA: Tajfun Sentjur +10.5 - 1 unit (1.94)

Partizan is 1-4 SU/ATS in L5. They are coming off a loss and in that spot Belgrade is 2-4 ATS in ABA league. Opening line of -8.5 had little value from the very beginning and now at -10.5 it is better to take the points. Tajfun is playing much better now. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games. Tajfun won 3 out of 4 previous games although those games were against bad (Hibernia) and struggling teams (Ljubljana). Tajfun Sentjur +10.5
 
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Rather easy win - this Partizan Belgrade line was total nonsense, bookmakers made ton of money on square bettors who were pounding the Partizan spread for two days. I really like those small bball teams like Tajfun that nobody heard of (at least general public). This will be my only play today (no Euroleague today for me). I was very busy in my private life and haven't much time to handicap during the week, so the recent results are not that good. I will update my spreadsheets and look at tomorrow's board.

Tajfun Sentjur +10.5 - W

Nov. 20th: 1-0 (+0,94u)

Season: 77-71-2 (+0.16u)
 
Nice job so far mate, good luck!

If you need help with Israeli league/ teams - talk to me...

I'm Israeli and so far, been hitting around 80% on this league...
 
Big card like always on Saturday. Four dogs and one small fav. I won't be surprised if some of the dogs win outright. Cibona is the strongest pick imho. I have a small lean on Chalons -7 (ProA), Pieno Zveigzdes +4.5, Juventus +6.5 (in LKL), Dąbrowa Górnicza +8 (Polish league), H.Eilat +8.5.

A1: Aries Trikala +4.5 - 1 unit (1.97)

Two teams on 5 game loosing streak will be clashing on Saturday afternoon in Greek A1. The difference between those teams is A.G.O.R. Rethymno can't do anything both on offense and on defense, while Trikala at least can score some. Rethymno is 1-5 ATS in L5 games, Trikala is 2-3 ATS in their L5. Home team (Retymno) is 1-4 ATS after a loss. Trikalla is 2-1 ATS as road underdog. We have wrong team favored here. My prediction: Rethymno 70, Trikala 73. Aries Trikala +4.5

BSL: TED Kolejliler Ankara +4.5 - 1 unit (1.99)

Kolejliler Ankara started this season really badly and is now 1-5 SU. Their schedule was difficult - they played with two Euroleague teams (Fenerbahce, Darussafaka), former EL team (Galatasaray), solid Torku and surprising newcomers Giresun. Most of the Kolejliler's road games were blowouts but games played at home were ofter decided by single digit margins. Another loss would push Kolejliler close to the bottom of the table. Banvitspor will be on 2-day rest, home team had the whole week to prepare for today's meeting. It looks like Banvit is now concentrating on Eurocup games, as they failed to cover in their last three games in Turkish Super Ligi. I got this matchup at pk'em. TED Kolejliler Ankara +4.5

ABA: Mega Leks Vizura +4 - 1 unit (1.97)

Union Olimpia Ljubljana is currently in the state of free falling - Slovenian club is 1-8 SU and ATS in their last nine games in Adriatic League and Eurocup combined. Before the bad streak started Ljubljana was 4-0 SU/ATS, so they were decent. It will be Olimpia's 6th game in the month of November, while for Mega Vizura it will be just 3rd game. The short 2-day rest after a game at Trento may be not enough to regain energy. The young and energetic Vizura squad will be looking for heir 7th win in last 8 games. Mega Leks Vizura +4

ABA: Cibona Zagreb +4.5 - 1 unit (1.90)

After losing 4 of first 5 games in ABA, and acquiring three new players Cibona is 6-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in Adriatic League and FIBA Cup. Croatian club is 3-3 as road dog and 4-2 ATS after a win. Krka is 1-3 ATS as home favorite in ABA. This will be a low scoring, rivalry game in which the underdog will have a real shot at covering the spread. The chance that the underdog will win this game outright is pretty high as I handicapped it using median and adjusting for home court advantage at: Krka 68, Cibona 77. Cibona Zagreb +4.5

ProA: Pau-Lacq-Orthez -2 - 1 unit (1.96)

Pau won last three meetings with Dijon. Pau is 2-0 ATS as home favorite. Pau has only two big advantages over Dijon - rebounding, specifically offensive rebounds. Rebounding and home court advantage should be decisive factors in this matchup. After winning 4 of 5 games in ProA, Dijon lost two in a row (at Lyon, at Antibes). Dijon stayed idle since November 6th because of schedule and terror attacks in France (that's 14 days of rest), it's possible that Dijon players will be rusted. This will be also their 5th road game in L6. Dijon won only one road game during this streak. Pau-Lacq-Orthez -2

ACB: Canarias +4 - 1 unit (1.99)

Canarias had fired Alejandro Martinez on November 5th and hired Txus Vidorreta and the team started to play better. Canarias players challenged Malaga on the road and forced an overtime, the team lost but covered against the spread. In second game under Vidorreta, Canarias won rivalry game with Gran Canaria 65:63. If Canarias players can sustain the level of intensity displayed in first two games under new head coach, the four points they are getting against Fuenlabrada should be enough to cover. Week ago Canarias added to their roster C Jones who had previously played for Zaragoza. This addition should help. Canarias +5
 
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So close to 6-0...

Aries Trikala +4.5 - W
TED Kolejliler Ankara +4.5 - W
Mega Leks Vizura +4 - W
Cibona Zagreb +4.5 - W
Pau-Lacq-Orthez -2 - L
Canarias +4 - W

Nov. 21st: 5-1 (+3.82u)

Season: 82-72-2 (+3.98u)
 
BBL: Frankfurt +4 - 1 unit (1.95)

Frankfurt is playing fantastic basketball. On Wednesday Skyliners their won 9th game in a row. In their last two Bundesliga games Frankfurt won outright as an underdog against German top teams - Munich and Bamberg. Frankfurt is 6-2 ATS overall and 4-0 ATS as dog in German BBL. On Friday Gordon Herbert's (Frankfurt head coach) contract was extended through 2017. Bonn is on verge of disaster as they are 0-5 SU and ATS in L5 gm's. Bonn is returning home very fatigued (and presumably unprepared) after three tough road games at Nanterre, Byreuth and Oldenburg. Frankfurt +4

LegaA: Trento +7 - 1 unit (1.92)

Reggio Emilia is returning home after four straight road games. They went 0-4 SU and ATS in those. Apparently Reggiana players got tired. It was visible in recent game in Eurocup vs Enel Brindisi - Reggio Emilia players were repeatedly settling for 3's and long 2's instead of taking the ball to the hoop. On defense they couldn't stop dribble penetration. Trento is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last nine. Trento is 3-1 ATS as dog in LegaA. The opening line is not balanced properly. Regio Emilia 84, Trento 89. Trento +7

LegaA: Torino -4 - 1 unit (1.94)

Torino is just 1-3 ATS at home and 2-5 ATS overall, so they are not good when it comes to covering the spread. But Torino has three wins which is decent result and they just signed G Dyson. Their opponent is 0-3 SU/ATS in last three games. Capo d'Orlando failed to score 70 points in every of their last four games. Capo d'Orlando is very good defensively (ranked 2nd in LegaA) but may face too big obstacle in strengthened Torino. Capo d'Orlando 66, Torino 81. Torino -4

ACB: Unicaja Malaga -5 - 1 unit (1.91)

Nine days ago Malaga stunned CSKA on the road as double digit dog and then they lost two in a row at Sevilla and at Bamberg. Game in Andorra will be their 4th road game in a row. Like Reggio Emilia, Malaga was traveling and playing basketball too often recently. They need some rest, then some light workout in the gym and they will be fine. Malaga has deeper roster than Reggio, so there is a chance that they will avoid loosing 3rd game in a row. Malaga is capable of beating current number on the board. Andorra won just two games in ACB - both against struggling teams (Tenerife, Zaragoza). Andorra is 2-4 ATS and 0-3 ATS at home. Malaga -5
 
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Lega A: Pesaro +11.5 - 1 unit (1.92)

Ugly season continues for Sardegna Sassari. Sassari is 1-6 SU and ATS in last 7 gm's played in LegaA and Euroleague. Sassari players are very frustrated and unhappy. During the game with Bologna I saw some of them ejected for arguing with referees. Their head coach - Romeo Sacchetti was fired four days ago, after 6th straight loss in Euroleague. Marco Calvani, who replaced him will have a high task ahead of him and he has no time. Pesaro is 2-5 SU and 5-2 ATS. Pesaro is of course aware of Sassari problems and will try to stun weakened Sassari like Venezia and Bologna did recently. Pesaro +11.5

VTB: VEF Riga -1 - 1 unit (1.95)

Loimaa Bisons is 1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS in VTB league. They lost outright and didn't cover in last three games. Finnish team is 1-3 ATS as home dog. They try to compete with other VTB teams but they do not possess the budget the other clubs have at their disposal. Last season VEF Riga won both games with Bisons (63:88 on the road and 78:62 at home). Loimaa 73, Riga 83. VEF Riga -1

Winner League: Maccabi Kiryat Gat +9 - 1 unit (1.92)

Maccabi Ashdod is 4-0 SU/ATS in L4 gm's. Current streak started after three straight losses at the beginning of the season. My problem with Ashdod as favorite is they were only once favored (-7 vs Ironi Nahariya and didn't cover) and not by a number so high like today's. How do we know this team will cover, if they never have been favored by so big number (they won big outright as underdog but that's psychologically a different situation). Kiryat Gat has bad ATS record: 1-4 as dog, 1-3 as away dog but they are decent against the spread after a loss (2-2). Four days ago the club signed F Tucker who played for Nancy. Away team needs more wins to stay in Winner league, they will be barking today in Ashdod as nearly double digit dog. Maccabi Kiryat Gat +9
 
FIBA Cup: Nymburk -4 - 1 unit (1.93)

Nymburk is 9-4 ATS in VTB and FIBA Cup. Team from Czech Republic is 3-1 ATS as favorite in both leagues. Those numbers were posted against much stronger teams than Danish team. Bakken won first game on the road 64:66 - it is revenge game for Czechs. Nymburk -4

FIBA Cup: Lyon-Villeurbanne -3.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Lyon is on 9-game winning streak (7-2 ATS during that streak). Mons is 0-3 SU/ATS in last three games. Lyon-Villeurbanne -3.5

FIBA Cup: Cibona Zagreb +10 - 1 unit (1.99)

Cibona Zagreb is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games in Adriatic League and FIBA Cup. Antwerp is on 1-day rest after Sunday meeting with Brussels. Cibona Zagreb +10
 
Reverse sweep thanks to some lackluster performance from my road teams.

Nymburk -4 - L
Lyon-Villeurbanne -3.5 - L
Cibona Zagreb +10 - L

Nov.24th: 0-3 (-3.00u)

Season: 85-79-2 (-0.23u)
 
I'm going with three road underdogs (I'm stubborn) that are good on D.

Eurocup: ALBA Berlin +3.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

ALBA Berlin is 0-2 ATS after winning previous 8 games and covering against the spread in 7 of them. ALBA will be an underdog just for the third time in current season. ALBA went 2-0 ATS as dog at Le Mans and vs Gran Canaria. Reggio Emilia is 0-5 ATS in L5 games in LegaA and Eurocup. They lost and did not cover at Berlin as five-point underdog (82:76).

Eurocup: Aris Thessaloniki +5 - 1 unit (1.98)

Aris is 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS in L11 games Greek A1 and in Eurocup. Buducnost Podgorica is 0-5 ATS in L5 games in Eurocup and ABA. In four of those games they were favored. Aris won first meeting with Podgorica thanks to some stellar defense. Aris is ranked 7th in DRtg in Eurocup (out of 36 clubs) and 2nd in A1 (DRtg - 91.5). Aris +5.

FIBA Cup: Frankfurt +1 - 1 unit (1.92)

On Sunday Frankfurt extended their winning streak to 10 wins. Frankfurt is 3-0 ATS in L3. They are 5-0 ATS as dog and 5-0 ATS after a win (in German BBL). Krka is playing decent basketball but Slovenian team has tendency to letdowns after wins - Krka is 2-4 ATS after a win in ABA. Frankfurt won first game at home 67:65. Frankfurt +1
 
utfootball4 said:
Look at AEK ml.
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I'm sorry I was away the whole day and couldn't respond. I wouldn't touch AEK I saw on tv how they disregard Hapoel Jerusalem and almost lost at home. I don't trust this team and Galatasaray is more like an Euroleague team than Eurocup team - they are really good this season. Galatasaray played on Monday with Darussafaka very light, they were clearly saving energy for the Greeks. I had a feeling that Turkish team will cover and it happened.
 
Euroleague: Anadolu Efes/Milano Over 153.5 - 1 unit (1.94)

Milan is bad on defense, it's not a coincidence this team has lost 5 of 6 games in Euroleague. Milan is also 0-6 ATS in EL. Anadolu Efes is averaging 87 points per game. This game can easily go over the total of 154 points. Anadolu Efes/Milano Over 153.5

Euroleague: Unicaja Malaga -4 - 1 unit (1.95)

Maccabi has new head cooach - Zan Tabak's record with Maccabi after 3 games is 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS. Maccabi is 1-5 SU and ATS in Euroleague. They are 0-2 ATS in away games, 0-2 ATS as an underdog and 1-3 ATS after a loss. Malaga is 0-3 SU and ATS in last three games but all those games were played on the road and the team traveled across continent back and forth. Malaga had no time to practice and to rest. Home court advantage is in this case very valuable. It's time for Malaga to break out of this slump. Unicaja Malaga -4
 
moneyprinter said:
I'm sorry I was away the whole day and couldn't respond. I wouldn't touch AEK I saw on tv how they disregard Hapoel Jerusalem and almost lost at home. I don't trust this team and Galatasaray is more like an Euroleague team than Eurocup team - they are really good this season. Galatasaray played on Monday with Darussafaka very light, they were clearly saving energy for the Greeks. I had a feeling that Turkish team will cover and it happened.
Click to expand...

Yeh man, i dont know much about these teams... I been playing international hoops for about 3 yrs now and my system is either red hot/ice cold... Been ice cold the past couple days....
 
utfootball4 said:
Yeh man, i dont know much about these teams... I been playing international hoops for about 3 yrs now and my system is either red hot/ice cold... Been ice cold the past couple days....
Click to expand...

You're streaky like every bettor (including me). There's nothing special in it, I would say it's integral aspect of sportsbetting. Euro basketball is not easier than NBA or CBB, it is very easy to loose whole bankroll, but very often a disciplined and smart bettor can hit the book and win larger sum of money. Ie. yesterday game in Novo Mesto - it was evident that Frankfurt will handle home team and win outright, there was value on spread and on moneyline. And Alba Berlin was a good pick too, they just lost concentration at the end of the game (but still covered). So maybe betting 2 units on Frankfurt ONLY would be smarter money management than spreading 3 units across the board and still finish 1-2 on the day for a loss or 2-1 for small gain. The problem is PERCEPTION - before the games I thought Aris is a very strong pick, so you never know...

I should really grade my picks, so those who tail me could have better knowledge what is actually going to happen and what's the true value of plays. My English is very limited, and I don't have time to write long writeup's. I'm aware that flat betting is not helpful either, this leads to grinding rather instead of stockpiling units (which is and should be my only goal). I will start grading my picks from December 1st - I hope the new system will be much more useful.

And I will have something extra to show later on.
 
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No overthinking, no bad reads and the card reduced to two plays is the way to go, it seems.

Anadolu Efes/Milano Over 153.5 - W
Unicaja Malaga -4 - W

Nov.25th 2-0 (+1.89u)

Season: 89-80-2 (+2.53u)
 
Euroleague: Brose Bamberg +3 - 1 unit (1.93)

Brose Bamberg is one of the most profitable teams in Europe for bettors. Their combined record in Euroleague and BBL is 13-3 SU and ATS which is remarkable achievement. Brose won first meeting with Darussafaka by 10 points and covered against the spread as -3 home favorite. Brose is 3-0 ATS as an underdog and perfect 6-0 ATS in EL. Darussafaka has 4 wins and is solid against the spread but Brose is too hot to bet against them, even on the road. The line is low and it won't be easy for Bamberg to cover or win outright in Turkey. It should be a very good matchup for German team because of the slow pace the home team is playing. Bamberg +3

Euroleague: Pinar Karsiyaka/Panathinaikos Under 150 - 1 unit (1.93)

Panathinaikos first meeting with Pinar was pretty intense an ended in Greek's team win 85:73. Panathinaikos has improved it's defense and is currently ranked 5th in DRtg in Euroleague (DRtg 101.2). Both teams are mediocre on offense - Panathinaikos is ranked 16th (ORtg 101.6) and Pinar is 21st (97.9). They're also mediocre on pace - 14th and 12th respectively. Pinar's home games vs Barcelona, Kaunas and Zielona Góra stayed under the total - I'm expecting similar result today. Pinar Karsiyaka/Panathinaikos Under 150
 
utfootball4 said:
Not at all, started tracking those plays several weeks ago. After looking at the results I decided to give them a try.
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I was betting on quarters (NBA) two seasons ago. The results were very positive at the beginning of the season - during first two months of the season (I was winning). Then the things got very complicated as some teams made trades, head coaches made adjustments to their systems and in February some teams started to tank. And I started loosing money. This strategy requires lots of dedication, basketball knowledge and good eye for detail. But it's possible to win.
 
Bamberg +3
Pinar Karsiyaka/Panathinaikos Under 150

Nov.27th: 2-0 (+1.86u)

Season: 91-80-2 (+4.39u)

One losing streak has ended and one winning streak is ongoing...

 
Thank you all for the kind words. Here is my card:

BBL: Tubingen +3.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Mitteldeutscher is atrocious this season 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS overall and 1-4 ATS at home. Tubingen is 3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS overall. Tubingen's G Sanders is still injured and will not play today (Tubingen signed a player in replacement). Tubingen is 4-1 ATS in L5 games (ATS wins versus - Crailsheim, Bamberg, Hagen, Wurzburg). What can be better for a bettor than fade 1-8 team in the role of favorite? Tubingen +3.5

LegaA: Torino/Trento Under 156.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Opposing teams score just 72 points on average against Trento in LegaA. Trento s ranked 3rd in that category. Trento and Torino are both very mediocre when it comes to scoring - they're ranked 8th and 12th respectively in ORtg. Trento is 0-4 O/U at home, Torino is 1-3 O/U on the road. Torino/Trento Under 156.5

BSL: Giresun +4.5 - 1 unit (1.94)

Trabzonspor is a major disappointment this season. Tranbzonspor is just 1-5 SU on the road in Super Ligi and Eurocup. They are favored over solid Giresun. Line for this game should be close to pk. Home court advantage may be decisive factor here. What's interesting line for home team opened at -2 and moved to +4.5. Giresun +4.5

VTB: Nizhny Novgorod +7 - 1 unit (2.00)

Right now everything is going well for Kazan which is 6-2 SU and 5-2 ATS in VTB. Kazan have covered against the spread in all of their last four games. But Kazan is 0-3 ATS on their own court, so away team has a chance to cover. There is ongoing rivalry between these two Russian clubs, we should have a close game. A year ago Novgorod won with Kazan on the road by 11 points. Both teams will be on short 2-day rest after games in Eurocup. Nizhny Novgorod +7
 
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Back to reality.

Tubingen +3.5 - W
Torino/Trento Under 156.5 - L
Giresun +4.5 - L
Nizhny Novgorod +7 - L

Nov. 29th: 1-3 (-2.05u)

Season: 92-83-2 (+2.34u)
 
VTB: Volgograd +10.5 - 1 unit (1.96)

Astana is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in VTB league. Team from Kazakhstan was on four game losing streak before win over Prishtina in FIBA Cup. Astana is 0-5 ATS as single digit favorite in VTB and FIBA Cup and for the first time this season they will be double digit favs. Last season Astana was just 2-5 ATS as double digit fav and the last year team was actually better than this year squad. Krasny Oktyabr have lost head coach, four US-born players (including G Mitchel who averaged 27 ppg) and probably some sponsors (reduced budget). Currently there's no players from US or Western Europe on Volgograd roster. Volgograd is 4-2 ATS in away games though and clearly - even weakend - is able to cover against the spread (Volgograd in November registered ATS wins vs decent teams: Nizhny Novgorod - twice, Hapoel Jerusalem and Nymburk). Volgograd +10.5

ABA: Sutjeska Nikisic +17 - 1 unit (1.97)

Buducnost Podgorica has no business in winning the game with Nikisic by 18 points. Podgorica has scheduled home game in Eurocup with Trabzonspor on Wednesday. A win over Turkish club can put them in position to advance to the next stage in Eurocup. Buducnost made head coaching change last week - Igor Jovovic was replaced by Luka Pavicevic. It will be Pavicevic first game as Buducnost head coach. New coach had only 48 hours to introduce players to his system. Two days ago Buducnost signed G Lamb. Nikisic is 2-0 ATS in L2 games (at Krka, vs Crvena Zvezda), 4-4 ATS as dog and 3-3 as road dog. Podgorica is 0-2 ATS as double-digit fav in ABA. Sutjeska Nikisic +17

Lega A: Juvecaserta +10 - 1 unit (1.95)

Venezia is playing well right now. The team is 4-1 SU/ATS in L4 games. For the first time during this season Venezia will be favored by so many points. Venezia was single digit favorite five times during current Lega A season, they went 3-2 ATS in these games. Home team is on 3-day rest. On Wednesday Venezia will be playing at Charleroi in Eurocup. Italian team is 3rd in standings of Group C and has a chance to advance. Juvecaserta is still ranked 3rd in defense in Lega A. Caserta is 2-1 as away underdog. Caserta had full week to prepare for this game. Juvecaserta +10

TBL: Banvit +3 - 1 unit (1.92)

Banvitspor is heading home after two road games at Ankara and at Kazan. Banvit finished 0-2 SU/ATS in these. There's no particular trends, spots or statistical advantages for this game. Banvit will be playing as home underdog after 3-day rest, while Darussafaka will be on very short 1-day rest. Road team after winning four straight games is 0-2 SU/ATS in it's last two games (both were played at home). The line moved from +3.5 to +3. I believe Banvit is able to win this game outright. Banvit 79, Darussafaka 76. Banvit +3

TBL: Usak +8 - 1 unit (1.98)

Usak is 5-1 SU and ATS in last 6 games in Super Ligi. Usak is 3-0 in last three games and 4-1 ATS as dog. Usak is playing only in Turkish league once a week, so they are rested, prepared and can't wait to upset some good but fatigued team. Pinar players are putting almost all of their effort into Euroleague games and to their fans worry, they are losing most of them. Pinar will be on very short 1-day rest after lost game to Panathinaikos. Pinar is 0-3 SU/ATS in L3. Pinar failed to cover against the spread in 4 consecutive games. Usak +8
 
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Three month ago, just before the start of Eurobasket, I registered at fansunite as PLCapper. I was picking winners out of boredom and for fun. I quickly realized my basketball record was pretty good (around 60% at the beginning, than dropped to 55% and since several weeks it is stable at that level). Please do not pay attention to my baseball, am.football and ice hockey record - it's not good but basketball, well that's another story. I'm 493-380-13 - 55.39% / 9.03% ROI (I think it's big enough sample size). That's +80.34 units won in basketball alone. My picks on Fansunite are my leans, not my official plays - each day I take an early look at the board and if I'm seeing value, I'm just picking them without too much thinking/analysing. It's kind of funny that I have actually slightly better record with my leans, than with my official plays (maybe I'm overthinking them or something). Anyway if anyone is interested - go to my profile and take a look at my stats and selections. I'm going to post picks there till the end of the season. I hope this will be helpful.

Some screen shots:

Overall view:



Bet type and units distribution:



Sport:



League breakdown:



I'm number 1 ranked handicapper at FU in Basketball category (in last three months):

 
How about that? That last game (Nikisic) was like a cherry on the top, my team almost won outright as +17 points dog. I should develop some kind of system for betting underdogs on moneyline (0.5 unit per bet, one play daily maybe?).

Volgograd +10.5 - W
Nikisic +17 - W
Juvecaserta +10 - W
Banvit +3 - W
Usak +8 - W

Nov.29th: 5-0 (+4.78u)

Season: 97-83-2 (+7.12u)
 
Lega A: Cremona -1 - 1 unit (1.99)

Pesaro is 2-6 SU and 5-3 ATS. Pesaro covered in all home games up to date (3-0 ATS). Pesaro is 4-0 ATS following ATS loss. Pesaro can be dangerous at home but this team is playing bad defense - currently is ranked 13th in Lega A (DRtg 108.3). Cremona is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in Italian league. This is a solid road team (3-1 ATS on the road). Cremona is also very good in the underdog role (4-1 ATS). The line opened for home team at -1 but now Cremona is favored by -1. I must agree with this line movement. Cremona -1

VTB: Tsmoki Minsk -1.5 - 1 unit (1.94)

Loimaa Bisons line opened at +2.5, now is +1.5. A week ago Bisons pulled a one point win against VEF Riga. Loimaa is 2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS and 2-3 ATS as home dog in VTB league. Minsk won just 6 games in VTB last season but after two months Belarusian club is 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS and 3-1 ATS in away games (in VTB). I don't believe in another miracle in Finland. Minsk has much more efficient offense (ORtg 109.0) than Loimaa (ORtg 97.5). Tsmoki Minsk -1.5

I may add later a play or two.
 
FIBA Cup: Ventspils/Zgorzelec: Under 158 - 1 unit (1.97)

Ventspils has secured its place in second stage of FIBA Europe Cup. Ventspils won five games in a row and there's no need to win sixth - this is a meaningless game for Latvian club. Zgorzelec needs a win or Pieno Zveigzdas loss to advance to second stage. All Ventspils home games and all Zgorzelec road games in FIBA Cup stayed under the total. Zgorzelec has very mediocre offense - ranked 7th in Polish basketball league. Ventspils/Zgorzelec: Under 158

Eurocup: Trento +3 - 1 unit (1.95)

Nanterre is 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS in L4 games in ProA and Eurocup. Nanterre is 2-4 ATS as fav in ProA but 2-0 ATS as fav in Eurocup. Trento is having very successful season. Italian team is 4-1 SU and ATS in L5 games in LegaA and Eurocup. Trento won first meeting with Nanterre at home 70:55. We have two teams going in opposite directions - Nanterre is cold and Trento is hot. Trento +3
 
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