Eastern Conference Finals discussion thread

It gets even stronger if you only look at 2006 or later. Home team, round 3, game 1, since 2006:
SU:13-2 (8.20, 86.7%)
ATS:8-7-0 (2.63, 53.3%) avg line: -5.6

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Heat -2.5 locked and loaded.

Haslem and Birdman will play a lot more this game and Miami can't go down 2-0 and expect to win this series. Heat have lost game one 4 times since LeBron joined and have come back and won game 2 each time.
 
Damn, 'The Kraken' aka Joe Crawford in Indy. Was hoping to see Ken Mauer given Dan Crawford officiated last night.

Dog is 8-2 ATS this postseason under Joe.
 
I think Pacers go to Miami leading 2 - 0 and it will become their series to lose (and they still will be capable of losing it).
 
I think Pacers go to Miami leading 2 - 0 and it will become their series to lose (and they still will be capable of losing it).

I can get into that. In the last 10 years the home team in round 3 hits around 60% in game 2, but that stat drops to around 54% after winning game 1. Still, the Heat during the LeBron era are only 5-9 SU at Indy, and have only won one game there since the 2011 season (1-7 SU L8). Yet the book still lines them as the favorite there. And the public lays the points.
 
Since the 2011 season, only one team - the Miami Heat - has been lined as the road favorite in round three or above. They are 2-5 SU in those seven games and 0-4 L4 (avg line 2.1). The margin of victory (or loss) in those seven games was -2, 19, 18, -7, -14, -10, -11.

In the two Heat wins, the Heat led by 13 and 14 at the half and went on to win those games by 19 and 18 points, respectively. In the five Heat losses, the margin at the half for them was 1, -1, -9, -10, -14.
 
Lebron James is 25-3 in playoff games officiated by Joey Crawford. 41-50 in all other playoff games. Guess who's on the whistle tonight?
 
At least one of those three losses was to the Pacers, in Indiana, where Joey gave him both fifth and sixth fouls. Both correct calls in my eyes, but both could have went the other way as well.
 
I suspect "good money" hit Indy earlier in the day with points of resistance around 2. After work lets out, we should see a flurry of Miami money roll in, and the line should get back up to 2.5 or even 3. At 3, we may see some resistance again.

It's a case of whether Miami's time may have come to an end. We all knew it would happen at some point with Wade's injuries and Bosh's play deteriorating over the years. The Pacers are a young team, and their youth showed over the stretch of games where they looked terrible. But perhaps they just got lax as they knew this is the only series that mattered until the Finals.

I watched much of game 1, and Indy simply looked bigger, faster, stronger, and more athletic. That game, to me, didn't seem like an anomaly. For Miami to win tonight, James will need to carry this team like always. What's different this year is that, even if James goes off, he still needs a second and third option for support. Wade and Bosh might not be those options anymore.

The play of Stevenson is absolutely stunning to watch. He's a complete player who can carry the load if George is having an off night. When him and George are both on, Miami has trouble matching their quickness and athleticism. Then, if Hibbert is playing even at 75% up to his standards, Miami has little depth in the front court. Chris Anderson appears to be on steroids, but even he is no match for Roy Boy.
 
That record is false.

After some more research, it looks like that record is false (and seemingly started making the rounds from a tweet someone sent out last year)...

It’s the word muttered most by fans when they learn Joey Crawford is officiating their team’s game. Fans don’t like him. Tim Duncan despises him. I can’t stand him.
For fun, I looked up the Miami Heat’s playoff record during the LeBron Era (2011-2013) when Joey Crawford blessed them with his presence, as will be the case tonight for Game 5 in Miami.
In the LeBron Era, the Heat are 7-6 (.571) in games Crawford has officiated. They are 39-15 (.722) in games he has not. One of those Heat wins also includes that magical Game 6 in last year’s NBA Finals against the Spurs. For the hell of it, I compared Crawford’s overall home/away win percentage from this same timeframe to Miami’s home/away win percentage with Crawford on the court.
[TABLE="width: 473"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 43"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 143"]CRAWFORD AVG[/TD]
[TD="width: 144"]MIA W/ CRAW[/TD]
[TD="width: 143"]DIFF[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HOME[/TD]
[TD]67.50%[/TD]
[TD]80%[/TD]
[TD]+12.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]AWAY[/TD]
[TD]32.50%[/TD]
[TD]20%[/TD]
[TD]-12.5[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
While the Heat have won about 13 percent more games at home with Crawford compared to his average home games, they won about 13 percent less games on the road with Crawford compared to his average away games — a wash. Remember, the sample is tiny, with just nine Heat home games and five away games.
For Heat fans, yes it’s true. The team has won a higher percentage of relative playoff games without Joey Crawford since LeBron James has taken his talents to Downtown Miami (approximately an hour walk to South Beach). But is there a statistical significance and some sort of anti-Heat bias? That’s pushing it.
Update: Miami won Game 5. In 14 playoff games from 2011-2014, the Heat’s record with Crawford at the helm is 8-6.
 
I suspect "good money" hit Indy earlier in the day with points of resistance around 2. After work lets out, we should see a flurry of Miami money roll in, and the line should get back up to 2.5 or even 3. At 3, we may see some resistance again.

It's a case of whether Miami's time may have come to an end. We all knew it would happen at some point with Wade's injuries and Bosh's play deteriorating over the years. The Pacers are a young team, and their youth showed over the stretch of games where they looked terrible. But perhaps they just got lax as they knew this is the only series that mattered until the Finals.

I watched much of game 1, and Indy simply looked bigger, faster, stronger, and more athletic. That game, to me, didn't seem like an anomaly. For Miami to win tonight, James will need to carry this team like always. What's different this year is that, even if James goes off, he still needs a second and third option for support. Wade and Bosh might not be those options anymore.

The play of Stevenson is absolutely stunning to watch. He's a complete player who can carry the load if George is having an off night. When him and George are both on, Miami has trouble matching their quickness and athleticism. Then, if Hibbert is playing even at 75% up to his standards, Miami has little depth in the front court. Chris Anderson appears to be on steroids, but even he is no match for Roy Boy.

Very good write up.....but let's not discount the heat just yet (for the record I can't stand the heat,biggest bunch of crybabies in the nba) even with wade hobbled somewhat and bosh as inconsistent as he is they have enough to make this a series....Indy played a flawless offensive game on Sunday and Miami just couldn't match them....if Miami plays with intensity tonight and Indy regresses a little then we will probably see a different outcome...all that being said Indy is probably the better group and barring a meltdown or Silva interfering they should win the series with superior rebounding and a more energetic defense
 
I expect the Heat to come out with some energy tonight
took over 46 1st half and 1st half game 91
 
Pacers play one game, their best of the playoffs and now they're the team to beat in the East. One good game doesn't win a championship and prior to Game 1 the Pacers were the most inconsistent team in the league. I have faith the Heat will adjust, their playoff record speaks for itself. Most concerning thing for me is the Kraken reffing.
 
I expect Miami to win tonight. Pretty much everything went the Pacers way on Sunday (started out like 6-7 from 3 land and hit every long jumper they took). Still, despite Indy's offense looking a ton better than it has looked at any point this year (37 free throws didn't hurt), the Heat had a chance early in the 4th to make it a legitimate battle until Chalmers handed them 3 free throws.

I believe it was the worst 3 point shooting performance from the Heat all year (?) and has to be one of the best from Indy.

To me, Indy should have won by 25 on Sunday.
 
the pacers are built to beat miami, its simple x's and o's....if the heat arent forcing turnovers and speeding the game up, i don't think the team is very good matchup wise against indy... joey c is going to have to get some pacer big men into foul trouble early...

idk why everyone thinks there is no way the heat can go down 0-2... its not like they are playing at home, a series doesnt start until a team loses at home and i could see this very well going to 7
 
Pacers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 when Joey refs

http://truschoolsports.wordpress.com/2014/05/15/lebron-james-actual-playoff-record-with-and-without-joey-crawford/

Lebron with Joey 12-11
Lebron no Joey 83-41
 
2nd best coach??? Please tell me yoy are kidding.....If he did not have Lebron he would be an assistant some place

2nd best coach off a loss.... Whatever that means. He's never coached anywhere else. You are betting on Lebron. Take his prop instead. Highly doubt the heat win without him scoring 30
 
the pacers are built to beat miami, its simple x's and o's....if the heat arent forcing turnovers and speeding the game up, i don't think the team is very good matchup wise against indy... joey c is going to have to get some pacer big men into foul trouble early...

idk why everyone thinks there is no way the heat can go down 0-2... its not like they are playing at home, a series doesnt start until a team loses at home and i could see this very well going to 7


I dont see see it with all due respect. If they can hit 3s over 4 games vs Miami and draw 35 freebies per game, Indy can take my money
 
Steven Stevens to Pirelli and staff: "Alright guys. We got a big one tonight. The play is Indy Pacers +3 (and buy the hook). Indy has Lance Stephenson, and his name sounds like mine. Ya heard? It's that simple! ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT WINNER."
 
Anyone know how mr mad money steve stevens been doing..... Quite amazing to see what some of those guys make esp Perelli n skip watched a buncha episodes
 
Steven Stevens to Pirelli and staff: "Alright guys. We got a big one tonight. The play is Indy Pacers +3 (and buy the hook). Indy has Lance Stephenson, and his name sounds like mine. Ya heard? It's that simple! ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT WINNER."

Anyone know how mr mad money steve stevens been doing..... Quite amazing to see what some of those guys make... Perelli n skip

I can't watch that Money Talks show (even though it's like a train wreck that you can't look away from), but I watched about 10 minutes of one of the shows and couldn't believe the BS they try to peddle. Their "client" that day was the owner of a strip club (they said it was the biggest or 2nd biggest in the state or whatever)....and he and they were stressing about $3500 bets. Come the fuck on...if you're going to make this fake show and act like you are ballers and that your clients are ballers, why not use higher fake money amounts? Like the dude who owns a multi-million dollar strip joint is going to go ape shit fucking crazy if he loses a $3500 bet. That show is so ridiculous and unbelievable, I'm still amazed that a station like CNBC lets it air on their network.
 
Dude makes cheese when he sleepin'...

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/r46gub9r61g" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
 
Anyone know how mr mad money steve stevens been doing..... Quite amazing to see what some of those guys make esp Perelli n skip watched a buncha episodes

He's on a terrible run. Can't confirm his play. Pirelli posted Pacers, but not sure if that's Stevens pick.
 
i know but looks like they are starting haslem which should help miami a lot

[h=1]Greg Cote: Miami Heat needs Udonis Haslem — and better effort[/h]

fALUk.St.56.jpeg
Miami Heat forward Udonis Haslem shoots against Pacers center Roy Hibbert in the second quarter of Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Sunday, May 18, 2014. Al Diaz / Staff photo

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WEB VOTE How concerned are you following the Heat's Game 1 loss to the Pacers? <form name="poll_responses" method="post" action="/survey-bin/tabulate_poll.cgi?mi_pb_cache=1"> <label><input name="poll_response" value="14673" type="radio"> Very concerned</label> <label><input name="poll_response" value="14674" type="radio"> Somewhat concerned</label> <label><input name="poll_response" value="14675" type="radio"> Not concerned at all</label> </form>




[h=3]By Greg Cote[/h] [h=3]gcote@MiamiHerald.com[/h] INDIANAPOLIS -- A little less than a year ago, a humbling 36-point Heat loss at San Antonio put Miami down 2-1 in the NBA Finals and facing the next two games in Texas.
Coach Erik Spoelstra sat in his hotel room late at night breaking down film. “I was despondent,” he recalled. “Beside myself.” There was a knock on the door. Club president and sage Pat Riley was there carrying three bottles of wine.
Or maybe it was two bottles of wine and a bottle of wisdom.
The men broke down the film together. Riley may have snuck in a subtle suggestion or two, but mostly he calmed Spoelstra down and lifted him up. Soon after, a parade, champagne replacing wine.
Fast forward to this week, Heat down 1-0 and facing another game in Indianapolis on Tuesday night.
“We drove back together after the [Sunday loss] and barely talked about the game,” Spoelstra said Monday following his team’s practice. “That’s reassuring.”
It indicates that down after one game in the Eastern finals is not as dire as down after three in the Finals. It indicates that vibes-reader Riley knows Spoelstra is neither despondent nor dependent the way he might have been even one year ago.
It also reminds us there are no magic pills. There is no wand Riley can hand to his protégé.
The Heat just needs to play better in Game 2. A lot better.
“There can be a danger of over-adjusting and over-thinking,” as LeBron James rightly put it.
Popular thought on the adjustment front after Sunday’s 107-96 Heat loss was that Spoelstra erred by not starting Udonis Haslem over Shane Battier. Putting on the 20/20 hindsight goggles, he did. Haslem fits better against Indiana’s front-court size and should start Tuesday night.
The Heat should go bigger with Haslem starting because he has proved he is up to the task of defending 7-2 Roy Hibbert, even giving up six inches. And also because that would allow LeBron to be a perimeter defender again and not spend so much defensive energy inside on David West.
West is one of the few NBA players who might be stronger physically than LeBron.
Asked who else might be on that short list, James smiled, thought a moment, then said, “Probably Shaq and Zeus.”
The Heat ask enough of LeBron all over the court, all over the game, to not tack on the added responsible of defending a Greek god.
Making the switch to Haslem would be Spoelstra admitting he erred in Game 1, but it makes sense.
Again, though, that simple adjustment would be the magic pill that turned out to be placebo, a mind trick — if the Heat deosn’t simply play better in Game 2. A lot better.
Yes, Haslem not in the starting lineup Sunday was a surprise. James had said before the game he’d expected a heavier, from-the-opening-tip dose of the popular captain teammates call “U.D.” Pacers coach Frank Vogel had even surmised Haslem would get the call.
Haslem not only matches up better against this opponent, but him in the starting five looks and feels normal, what Chris Bosh called “classic Heat” and “what’s natural for us.” Haslem brings a comfort level; he’s a security blanket.
“We have a tougher frontcourt out there. Bigger,” James said of the Heat when Haslem is on the wood. LeBron wasn’t lobbying, exactly, although he made his leaning pretty clear. “He has that warrior mentality and heart. That definitely helps us.”
But Spoelstra, not revealing who will start Game 2 alongside the Big 3 and Mario Chalmers, made a pretty fair point in downplaying the Haslem-or-Battier question by noting, “It doesn’t matter who we play. Big or small, we just have to consistently get to our defensive identity.”
The TV over-analysts and the age of micro-analytics tend to over-complicate things.
In Game 1, the Heat generally played like [bleep]. That’s all.
Now it had better play like itself at its best to get Micky Arison’s cruise ship unstuck and moving forward again.
Must win Tuesday?
“Yeah,” Bosh answered. “Down 2-0 is not a very good situation.”
No Heatnik seemed overly concerned by the Game 1 defeat, partly because, as LeBron said Monday, “We’re a team that gets better as a series goes on.”
It may be subliminal, but I sometimes think this Heat team relishes what a loss brings. The challenge. The doubt. The feeling all around Tuesday night’s game.
It takes massive gumption to believe you can turn it on when needed, but if a two-time reigning champion doesn’t have that, who would?
Troublingly, it’s as if it all starts with mind-set, effort and passion with the Heat.
One of the most disturbing phrases heard in the NBA — and you don’t hear it in other sports — is when players talk about the need to “match the intensity” of the other team.
The Heat clearly fell short Sunday. Now the Pacers speak as if they’ll have to turn up their game to mirror Miami’s expected response.
“I’m confident we can match whatever level they bring,” Paul George said Monday.
Added West: “We know they’ll be more aggressive.”
Begs the question: Why did the Heat fail to bring their A-game in Game 1? Was an Eastern Conference finals opener, on the road, against a bitter rival, not enough to merit the Heat’s full attention and intense effort?
Miami must show a defensive tenacity that speeds up the Pacers’ thought process and forces the misguided passes we know as turnovers.
Miami must get to the free-throw line more — that starts with LeBron and Dwyane Wade — and let the Pacers there less.
Miami must shoot a lot better from three-point range than Sunday’s abysmal 6-for-23.
Miami must get much better performances from Bosh and Chalmers.
Mostly, Miami must bring the good desperation Tuesday night.
That isn’t the kind that has any fear in it.
That’s the kind that has no doubt it will remind you who the champions are.


Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/05/20/4125445/greg-cote-miami-heat-needs-udonis.html#storylink=cpy
 
I took George o2.5 3's +110 because he has hit 3 threes in each of his last four home games versus the Heat and in 5 of 8 home playoff games this season.
 
I can't watch that Money Talks show (even though it's like a train wreck that you can't look away from), but I watched about 10 minutes of one of the shows and couldn't believe the BS they try to peddle. Their "client" that day was the owner of a strip club (they said it was the biggest or 2nd biggest in the state or whatever)....and he and they were stressing about $3500 bets. Come the fuck on...if you're going to make this fake show and act like you are ballers and that your clients are ballers, why not use higher fake money amounts? Like the dude who owns a multi-million dollar strip joint is going to go ape shit fucking crazy if he loses a $3500 bet. That show is so ridiculous and unbelievable, I'm still amazed that a station like CNBC lets it air on their network.


he wasnt owner of club he was one of the managers..... and he was already down 2 games.... just saying
 
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