Discussion - Thursday Night

I wonder how much work each team put into hosting the west coast teams last week, because this feels a lot more important than the result each team got in week one. This is the game I would have been preparing for during training camp.

Cats are now 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS their L9 games since last season and Rivera is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in his last six games on a short week (less than 6 days rest). I think I might trust Arians a little more in this spot. Thursday has been historically good for the home team, but Arians has literally had all summer to prepare for this one.
 
Arians doesn't have good memories of Bank of America Stadium. Visited three times. Lost all three games by double digits; lost the 1Q of those three games by combined margin of 41-0.
 
Just gonna watch this one and root for the fantasy guys. Never know which Bucs offense is going to show up.
 
Per BetLabs

Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2014 NFL season there have been 231 games where the closing line favored the home team by 6 to 8 points. In these games:

The team like Carolina won the game 169 times (73.2%)
The team like Tampa Bay won the game 61 times (26.4%)
The team like Tampa Bay did better against the spread,
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2016 NFL season there have been 248 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 0.5 points more than the opening line.

In these games, the team like Tampa Bay did better against the spread, going 125-108-15 (53.6% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.4 points.
 
Heard Pauly on VSIN yesterday regurgitating some Marc Lawrence info that TB games are 12-0 to the over when playing on fewer than 6 days rest. I haven't looked into it at all.
 
Last week I tweeted out "one of the cardinal rules of betting is don't bet games just to bet them; if you wouldn't bet a side if the game was Sunday at 1pm, don't bet it just bc its TNF or MNF." I then proceeded to bet on the Bears team total. I get it, its difficult, we want the action, and without action, this game will probably be boring and inconsequential. But I don't think you can make a case for true value on either side. Stay away and if you really wanna wager on something look at McCaffrey props; hes their offense

I do think Tampa is not as bad as they looked last week and Cam looks like hes playing through an injury, but nothing enough to bet a side here.
 
D-Woww said:
Last week I tweeted out "one of the cardinal rules of betting is don't bet games just to bet them; if you wouldn't bet a side if the game was Sunday at 1pm, don't bet it just bc its TNF or MNF." I then proceeded to bet on the Bears team total. I get it, its difficult, we want the action, and without action, this game will probably be boring and inconsequential. But I don't think you can make a case for true value on either side. Stay away and if you really wanna wager on something look at McCaffrey props; hes their offense

I do think Tampa is not as bad as they looked last week and Cam looks like hes playing through an injury, but nothing enough to bet a side here.
Click to expand...
Amen to that
 
D-Woww said:
Last week I tweeted out "one of the cardinal rules of betting is don't bet games just to bet them; if you wouldn't bet a side if the game was Sunday at 1pm, don't bet it just bc its TNF or MNF." I then proceeded to bet on the Bears team total. I get it, its difficult, we want the action, and without action, this game will probably be boring and inconsequential. But I don't think you can make a case for true value on either side. Stay away and if you really wanna wager on something look at McCaffrey props; hes their offense

I do think Tampa is not as bad as they looked last week and Cam looks like hes playing through an injury, but nothing enough to bet a side here.
Click to expand...

This is the absolute gospel. I wish someone told 18 year old me this info.
 
I might be a homer but I think the Bucs were blindsided by a top 5 defense last week in the 9ers. The pass rush was unreal and the secondary took advantage of that with 2 pick 6s. Also - Evans was nothing more than a decoy but I assume he's feeling better 4 days later from his sickness injury.

Bucs defense completely shut down the 9ers run attach. One of the better ones statistically last season. Maybe a gameplan coming in as GQ is still a bit rusty.

Arians is the better HC but I worry about his performances here in this building. Maybe the Bucs staff/players have better knowledge of which cleats to wear, etc. because Arizona always looked slow here.
 
Thursday Night Football trends show the home team has a stronger edge later in the season when injuries and fatigue become more of a factor:


Home teams are 26-12-1 ATS on TNF in Weeks 6-17 the last 4 seasons.

Home teams are 7-9-1 ATS in Weeks 2-5 during this same stretch.
 
I like the ydg prop on Godwin over 63.5 yds. Carolina has been poor defending the slot and Godwin has nice speed advantage on Elliot.
 
Bucs have two road wins during that time, both with Jameis injured and Ryan Fitzpatrick playing QB

he's overdue :cool:
 
My wife has Mike Evans(Ag) as one of her rcvrs.
I told her to sit him with Jamess as the qb.
I know shit about fantasy, but the guy keeps me off of every TB play that pops in my numbers.
 
which division hits the hardest on defense, traditionally? the NFC West? because that's hella scheduling right there. We're gonna schedule the Rams to come kick the shit out of you on Sunday, then have you turn around and play another game four days later. Make that a division game. You too, Bucs. Except you can have San Francisco come beat the crap out of you first.
 
Not seeing much Carolina love tonight anywhere.

I would’ve expected this line to be closer to 4.

I’m rolling with some degenerative action on the Panthers tonight...I think Vegas is telling us something with the line.
 
emg2525 said:
Not seeing much Carolina love tonight anywhere.

I would’ve expected this line to be closer to 4.

I’m rolling with some degenerative action on the Panthers tonight...I think Vegas is telling us something with the line.
Click to expand...


A few post for sure but we’re still looking at a very chalky 70% consensus on the Panthers.

I do agree though that it’s a strong line.
 
Jones II TD Anytime +175

If you can find Brate props. I would jump on them. I think Brate could score a TD Anytime.

I am looking around for Brate props. See none on BOL

Brate Over 18.5 rec yrds +105
 
To all our keystone state posters. Fox Bet PA giving $20 free for signing up.

I threw mine on Panthers D/ST 1st td +2000
 
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