PIT/BUF
Steelers have a meh RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
Bills have a meh P/RB matchup.
Pickett has a meh ASR matchup, and N. Harris has a bad ALY matchup.
Singletary has a bad ALY matchup.
Steelers TTR is 23rd (/24).
Bills TTR is 1st (/24).
Pace of play is 3rd, O/UR is T-4th.
- Injuries - PIT - On D, no CB Witherspoon for 2nd week. 2 everydown defense also Q.
- BUF - On D, no S Poyer, no CB Benford (for 2nd week), LB Edmunds is Q, but didn't practice all week, would be a big loss (with poyer). On O, no Knox, Kumerow/Crowder.
- We have an interesting one here. Solid pace, solid O/U, bad DVOA matchups, and a big spread. You can easily look at PIT and avoid them, as they have one of the lowest point totals, but I think they're viable for one-offs/game stacks. Pickett, albeit a tiny sample size, already has a 50% airyards/attempt average on trubisky (6.4, compared to 4.2). He also showed he may now be a vulture to Najee, and also didn't target him once, hope that was an anomaly for yearlongs. I'm not advocating pickett, but just saying maybe the offense will be a bit better than the bottom (well, above fields..) For tomorrow, pass on Najee, pass on Pickett.... I still think pass on claypool, targets for diontae, and homeruns for pickens, but it was nice to see pickens get targetted more too, if that keeps up, he will have a pretty nice scoring range compared to others, but most will be bringing BUF stacks with Pickens, I think Diontae is the smarter pivot if going WR. The man I haven't mentioned yet is Friermuth, PIT ran a lot of 2 TE sets last week, Freier had 73% snaps to Gentrys 61%, but Frier is the pass catcher here, and dominated with a 36% target share, and the 2nd best aDOT/r on the team at 8.7. He's 4th in target share among TEs, and only 1 other is on the main slate. I think he can be played confidently as a gamestack bringback/one-off.
I don't know how I want to tackle buffalo. Singletary has a bad ALY matchup, but they're huge faves, top TT, and had his season high snap % at 88% last week. Despite that high %, he only had 16 possible touches (11 carries/5 targets), and we know Allen can be a TD vulture with his legs too. I'm sure he's cheap enough to consider though, and an ok pivot to get a piece of this offense while hoping for Allen to fantasy fail, idk if I can stomach it though. I'll say pass at TE with no knox, I know you can choose to punt it and get a 2.5K sweeney/morris (just a guess), as they'll probably outperform their price, but I don't see upside. Knox had averaged about 4 targets a game and just 2 total rz targets. Diggs and Davis are everydown WRs, and with no Knox, I'm sure that'll continue barring injury(s). If McKenzie can't suit up, we will have Khalil Shakir as a min price punt option in the slot. Wait and see approach here, but you can make arguments for them all. Just know Diggs has a solid 25.5% target share, at a 9.7 aDOT/r. That's roughly a 10~-100~ floor potential week to week.
HOU/JAC
Texans have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Jags have great RB matchup, and meh P matchup.
Pierce has a meh ALY matchup.
Texans TTR is 22nd.
Jags TTR is 7th.
Pace of play is 5th, O/URank is T-9th.
- Injuries - HOU - On O, no WR Chris Moore, or TE Jordan.
- JAC - On D, no DT Fatukasi, on O, Zay Jones is Q.
- Definite pass on HOU TE's, While Howard played 75% of snaps last week, it was without pharoah brown, and they rotated two others in too, he did have 5 targets, but I think that number is more likely to be lowered than attained again. Through weeks 2 through 4, when Pierce actually was on the field, Houston has given him about 20 possible touches a game, that's definitely solid, especially considering he hasnt had a truly positive script yet. So if you see a scenario that houston wins/leads for most of the game, fire him up. Otherwise, play accordingly. With no moore, 50% of snaps and 9% of targets goes elsewhere, I think dorsett sees the snaps, but Collins/Cooks gets the target share. Cooks sits at 26% for the season with an okay aDOT/r of 8.1, he's a solid ppr guy that can go 9~-70~. I still like collins too at 15% target share on this team, with an aDOT/r of 14, and a cheaper/lower owned figures. This game has a sneaky pace and they're projected to be playing from behind.
Etienne and Robinson are just eating into each other, last week they were in a 5050 split, I can't stomach starting one to have the other be the leader. I know the matchup as a whole has a ton of positives, but I think I'm passing here. Pass on Engram, he's averaging 4 shallow targets a game. If Zay Jones is in, I still like Kirk, if Zay Jones is out, I kind of love Kirk. He's 9th at the WR position in terms of market share, with a good aDOT/r of 10.3, and has 8 redzone targets through 4 games... he has a solid floor, and TD equity. Sign me up.
ATL/TBB
Falcons have a good RB matchup, and bad P matchup,
Bucs have a great RB matchup, and a good P matchup.
Mariota has a meh ASR matchup. Algeier? has a great ALY matchup.
Brady has a great ASR matchup.
Falcons TTR is 19th.
Bucs TTR is 2nd
Pace of play is 11th in MS, 14th overall. O/UR is 2nd.
- Injuries - ATL - On O, no Pitts, no Patterson/Dam Williams.
- TBB - On D, no Logan Ryan for 2nd week, no Akiem Hicks for 3rd week. On O, no Bernard still, no Brate. Perriman/Julio are Q.
I feel like I hear people in the DFS scene not like Algeier, and they have a committee, and are big dogs, blah blah blah. He's averaging 5.3 YPC, its a small sample size, and without his longest rush he's at 4~ YPC. But he's playing on a team thats shown they want to run as much as they can in neutral/positive situations, they have the 2nd best ALY push, and he's cheap! He'll be in my player pool. I see there's no Pitts now, I think Hesse is a min punt play option if you want, as his expanded volume with beat his price for sure. I can't tell anyone not to play london, pitts had a 23% target share, and that'll be dispersed to all parties, if any go to London (it will), he will only stamp the 2nd highest target share in the league, at 34%. The problem is despite being 2nd in target share, he has the lowest targets of the top 10 WRs in target, because like mentioned earlier, they do not want to throw the ball. Either play him, or fade in DFS, there's arguments to both sides.
With Julio back, he probably fights into Gage territory, both are a pass. I'm happy to see godwin come back and step right into his role, he had 10 targets last week, but keep in mind, they were playing in a positive passing script the enitre game, he also had a weak aDOT/r of 4.9, Evans is the man to own, he shared the targets, but his aDOT/r was 10.8, and had 3 redzone targets, he's bradys preferred target there. With no Brate, Otton had 4 targets last week, 13 total targets to TEs, they obviously don't repeat that, but its a punt salary option that has 5-25-1 potential. Despite a terrible rushing performance (3 carries for negative yards in the first half), and his lowest snap % share of the year, I think fournette is a good play. The script of last week won't happen again, and he's still averaging 20~ touches a game despite that performance. They have the 2nd highest TTR, and are big faves. I'd debate Fournette + DEF + London, or Algeier + Evans, gives you two different scenarios, this of course doesn't include the punt options.
SEA/NOS
Seahawks have a meh P/RB matchup.
Saints have a great P matchup, and good RB matchup.
Kamara? has a great ALY push.
Seahawks TTR is 17th.
Saints TTR is 4th.
Pace of play is T-8th in MS, 9th overall. O/UR is 6th.
- Injuries - SEA - On D, no DE Johnson (was a limited player). On O, Goodwin/Walker are Q.
- NOS - On D, no PJ Williams CB, no DE Turner (limited). On OL, Throckmorton is out, but looks to get Peat back. No Thomas, probably no Winston, and Kamara/Landry are Q.
Pass catching options come down to just Lockett or Metcalf, they're virtually the same players in terms of Target share, and aDOT/r, but 1 (Metcalf) gets RZ looks, and would be my preferred option of the 2, but won't fault you for lockett. Seattle has been playing 3 TEs, if you want to take a stab on 1, go ahead, but I won't. Penny has been great, but there's 2 ways to approach this. If walker is out, its a huge boost to his 70% capped snap %, as well as his terrible 1 target/game average. That news may make me up his % owned in my lineups, otherwise I'll have a bit of him, his YPC is great, but if in a negative script, he has the potential to dud. But if we believe in Geno and this team, he can have 16~ carries 80+ yards with TD equity.
If Kamara is back, I think he can be a super low owned option pivot, people have been writing him off, and he still got 20~ total touches in the 2 games he was active. He has a great ALY push, good DVOA matchup, and the 4th highest TTR. If he's out, I'm passing on this backfield, Ingram has averaged 42% snaps in the 2 games kamara was out, how can we trust that, or the other backup (was jones once, murray another time). I still want to believe in Johnson, but he burned me, and Trautman has ate into his snaps. Pass at TE. I love Olave as much as anyone else, he had a 25% market share last week without Thomas, and maybe no Landry this week, he's 16th in target share among all WRs. Nobody without atleast 17 targets has a better aDOT/r of his minus Collins (21 T's) and Corey Davis (25 T's), he has 36 targets, and a 13.9 aDOT/R. That can be a 9~ 120~ range. He does have 4 RZ targets too. IF you wanted to pivot off of his ownership, I think Callaway can be interesting. He actually played 97% of snaps last week (to Olave's 68%), and had 1 less target (6), with a huge aDOT/r of 17. I think that can be smart.
LAC/CLV
Chargers have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Browns have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Herbert has the best ASR matchup.
Chubb has a good ALY push.
Chargers TTR is 6th.
Browns TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 6th, O/UR is 3rd.
- Injuries - LAC - On D, no Bosa for 2nd week. On O, OT Slater is out for 2nd week. WR Allen is out, Palmer is Q.
- CLV - On D, Bryan/Clowney are Q, and have missed past week(s), could be a good addition.
We have a close spread, healthy pace, and good matchups/O-U. Ekeler is a fine player to play, I don't like chasing past weeks, especially ones that involved 3 tds, but he has such a safe PPR floor with high upside (7+ target/g average with 1 rz target/g), he can definitely be considered. He's been capped around 60% of snaps too, but the chargers have really only had 1 game with a neutralish~ script, so maybe we can see that creep closer to the 65-70% range. Mike Williams gets the benefit of no Keenan Allen yet again, He has a 20% target share on the team, and an aDOT/r of 9.7 to go along with a 90%~ snap count, he is the obvious pair to herbert if you go that route. Having said that, if Palmer is out with Allen, Michael Bandy could be a min priced punt, he had 2 targets last week, caught both for an aDOT/r of 21.5. Just something to consider. I almost forgot, among TEs that matter (i'll say 20+ targets), Everett is 6th in aDOT/r at 7.5, and is 2nd among TEs playing in the MS.
I'm sorry Hunt, but I think you can only outscore Chubb with TDs. Chubb has better yards before AND after contact, gets 50%~ more total touches despite being in a 50/55-50% split. You know he's good for around the 24~ touch range, and I'll never talk anyone off of him. I really like DPJ over Cooper, he had a dud week, but aside from that, they're near equals in almost everything, and he has a better aDOT/r of 10.2 (over coopers 7.9). Both have RZ targets. I think either can beat the other, but if picking one, DPJ for me. I like Njoku, he has a good target share of 18.7%, but he gets shallow passes, and I see other TEs as better options.
CHI/MIN
Bears have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Vikes have a good RB matchup, and meh P matchup.
Fields has the worst ASR matchup. Herbert? has a good ALY push.
Cousins has a good ASR matchup. Cook has a good ALY push.
Bears TTR is 21st.
Vikes TTR is 5th.
Pace of play is 2nd. O/UR is 8th.
- Injuries - CHI - On D, 2 CB's are D. On O, Montgomery is Q, and missing OL Whitehair.
- MIN - Nothing really.
I continued to get burned by trying to get cute with a chicago WR. When will I learn. St. Brown and Mooney lead in snap share, and Mooney has a 25% target share, but thats acquired on 4 targets a game... that's gross, despite that, he does have a solid aDOT/r of 13.1, St, browns is 15.3, but that's only on 8 and 4 TOTAL CATCHES THIS YEAR. You'd think in this positive passing script he will finally be used, I'm not saying I'm not doing it, but I'll keep it to myself until monday. Kmet is an everydown TE, but is even more gross than the WRs. He has 8 targets through 4 games and a shallow 4.2 aDOT/r. Ugh. To make matters worse, Montgomery may be back, and I don't think he will go back to being a 70% snap count, atleast not at first. So do we trust either one? I don't really, if montgomery sits, Herbert can be played as a good value.
So we have a solid pace, a solid TTR, a good ALY push, and the best defensive ASR matchup. I think we may be able to play Cook at a sneaky low owned play. Most people will be scared of mattisons increased usage (rightfully so, as Cook had his worst snap count at 61-62% last 2 weeks), but he is still seeing 20~ touches a game, has been the much more efficient runner, and has about 3~ targets/g, and a 60-40 split being the worst situation it is still better than most of the leagues backs. Pass at TE. At WR, its a 3 man ring, Osborn is obviously last on the pecking order, and should be avoided. Thielen and Jefferson are extremely similar, but Jefferson gets a shit ton more targets and is obviosuly 1A, he (or both) can be considered weekly. They have a combined 14 RZ targets on the season too.
TEN/WAS
Titans have a great P matchup, and bad RB matchup.
Commanders also have a great P matchup, and a bad RB matchup.
Henry has a meh ALY push.
Wents has a meh ASR matchup, and Gibson? has a meh ALY push.
Titans TTR is T-11th.
Commanders TTR is 18th.
Pace of play is 12th /12 in MS, 16th overall. O/UR is 11th.
- Injuries - TEN - Ummm, the Titans are without 5 LB's and a S, that has to be worrisome. On O, no Burks.
- WAS - On D, w/o a LB/S, weren't to important. On OL no Cosmi now, and they've been without Roullier for 3rd week now. Dotson is out. Thomas Q.
Another scenario where we have a defense that is ranked 7th in ASR (TEN), going against a meh QB/OL, I'm not sure how to feel about the injuries on D though, but if they get in a positive script, it could be a Henry+D scenario, but even without the defense, Henry is getting 20+ touches a game, with 3 of it being targets. The only thing that upsets me is he has been capped at 70%~ snaps despite playing with a lead in his 3 healthy games. I know 70% is good, but not to long ago he was much higher than that, and used to be good for almost 25 (closer to 30) touches a game. No 3rd WR on TEN had more than 5% snap count. LOL. with no burks, that obvisouly changes, and it should belong to Westbrook-Ikhine, I guess he is a min priced punt option. Woods is the man to own if you play this game, but do no, the pace is bad, the OU is bad, and they may be playing with a lead.
I'm not touching the washington backfield until further notice. I don't know robinson's role yet, or if it'll be a 3 man committee the first week, but once he establishes himself, I'll reconsider. We don't know Logan thomas health, but I'll pass either way. Which brings up 2 options Samuel, and McLaurin. Samuel is such a shallow receiver, at 3.4 aDOT/r, and maybe with robinson his 1/2/3 carries become 0/1? I'm passing here. With no Dotson and his 13% target share, it will filter to all pass catches. Give me McLaurin and his 12.6 aDOT/r in a game where I think they'll be playing from behind. I think he's closer to the 7+/100+ range this game.
MIA/NYJ
Dolphins have a great P matchup, and meh RB matchup.
Jets have a great P matchup, and bad RB matchup.
Teddy has a good ASR matchup. Edmonds? has a bad ALY matchup.
Z. Wilson has a good ASR matchup. Hall? has a bad ALY matchup.
Dolphins TTR is T-9th.
Jets TTR is 16th.
Pace of play is T-8th in MS, T-9th overall. O/UR is 7th.
- Injuries - MIA - a TON of Q's we need to wait for.
- NYJ - On D, 2nd week w/o LB Williams. On OL, 2nd week without Fant, and 1st week without Mitchell.
We have question marks all over. With uncertainty of Hill or Waddle, plus how will teddy play? But they have a great matchup, and good ASR matchup. if 1 of the 2 miss, I think you can happily play the other. If both are in, idk, this game is just on the bottom half of pace/OU, and I can kind of see a back being a 2+td option but thats to unpredictable. I will note, Mostert had his best snap share of 72% last week (edmonds had 28%), so it may be the changing of the guard and no more splitski's. I think I'd one-off him in a lineup just incase thats the new norm and resulted in 18~ total touches, in a game that was neutral script at best last week. Tua never used his TE's, but maybe Teddy does, pass for now, as I like others, but to note for future week(s).
My gut says I wont NO part of this jets backfield while missing 2 OL too. But like mostert, I see Hall gaining ground in snap %, with a season high of 66%, finished last week with 23 total opportunities, with 6 of them being targets. On the year, he's averaging almost 7 a game, has 5 redzone TARGETS, and he's CHEAP! I'm talking myself into it, with a TD, he can finish with 20+ points. I've been a corey davis one-offer for a couple weeks now, he was also Wilsons favorite target last year, he tied for a team high last week in targets, and had a solid aDOT/r of 11.6., for the season its 14.3, IMO he's the homerun hitter to have here if any at all. I think Conklin is a decent PPR option, but 1 thing worth noting, with flacco, his aDOT/r was a putrid 2.4, with wilson last week, it was 9.3.... if that keeps up, he can be a solid TE for yearlongs, and sneaky option for DFS for some weeks.
4PMs/Main Slate Cont.
SFO/CAR
49ers have a good P matchup, and meh RB matchup.
Panthers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Garop has a great ASR matchup.
Baker? has a bad ASR matchup. CMC has a meh ALY push.
49ers TTR is T-11th.
Panthers TTR is 24th /24.
Pace of play is T-8th in MS, T-9th overall. O/UR is 12th /12.
- Injuries - SFO - On D, No LB Shaair for 2nd week, no DE Armstead, still no S Moore, no DT Kinlaw for 2nd week, On OL, still no Williams, and now no McKivitz.
- CAR - On D, no S Chinn for 2nd week. couple Q's. On O, still no Darnold/Shenault.
I don't like how Wilson had no targets last week, and outside of the TD run, he had a 2.47~ YPC. I'm actually going to avoid him here despite being faves, and people watching him on primetime last week. He's now missing down another OL man too. I think fading his ownership is the smarter play but if you want to pair him with SFO D, I see why. I know Deebo can take anything to the house, as seen last week.... but he had a pathetic 1.7 aDOT/r, his season numbers are at 2.8, he's getting 7 targets/g, but 80% of his yards come after the catch. You can take Kittle if you'd like, he is one of the few TE's how can get to 100+ yards on any given sunday, but going to pace here, as I like other options more.
I can't trust these WRs with baker at the helm. Moore/Anderson are out there almost all the time and Smith is at 75%, they have 64 total targets between the 3 of them, only 33 were deemed catchable. The big 2 do have a 45% target share between them, but they have the worst TT, worst OU, and on the bottom side of the pace. Pass, that includes TEs too. CMC is the only thing worth mentioning. He has a solid snap count between 80 to 90%, and it looks like they are starting to check down to him more too. He has a solid PPR floor, and with a TD or two can always be the RB1 for the week.
DAL/LAR
Cowboys have a great P matchup, and bad RB matchup.
Rams have a great RB matchup, and bad P matchup.
Rush has a good ASR matchup.
Stafford has a bad ASR matchup.
Cowboys TTR is 20th.
Rams TTR is T-9th.
Pace of play is 7th. O/UR is T-9th.
- Injuries - DAL - On O, OL Peters is doubtful. Ferguson/Pollard/Lamb all Q.
- LAR - On D, no S Fuller, CD Durant, a couple Q's. On O, OL no allen for 4th week, and now no Shelton.
I'll start by saying Dallas D is cheap, and will be the most owned DEF. I agree with it, in tournaments, you may want to pivot in some lineups. Having said that, if Pollard is out, Zeke + D will be super popular, and its kind of something I liked with pollard in, as Zeke has been getting closer to 66% of snaps this year, and pollard has had 2 games under 40, and just 1 above 45%. Cowboys didn't have to throw last week, and my head says they probably don't need to this week... having said that, you can't be so sure, and vegas obviously has them as dogs. If you think it plays out this way, Lamb has been coopers favorite target by a mile. Weeks 2 to 4 he has a 36% target share on the team, with an ok aDOT/r of 7.5. Keep in mind he is Q though. With or without lamb, I thought brown was going to fall off last week with gallup coming back, but he didn't. In fact, he played more snaps, and had a 23% target share on the team, with a great aDOT/r of 16. I think he is the sneaky option on this team tomorrow. I'm not sure how many routes Schultz ran last week, but he immediately got to 90% snap count, which is faster and better than I thought it would have been. He only had 3 targets, but again it was a scenario where they led throughout. I think both won't coexist, I just like other TEs more, but keep him in mind moving forward.
I've touted higbee for a couple weeks now, the guy has the best snap count for a TE, and is seeing a ridiculous 25% of targets, good for #2 among TEs, his knock is his putrid 2.8 aDOT/r, and it's probably why I'll let others chase his game last week. Now Cooper Lupp on the other hand has a MASSIVE 36.2% target share on this team, his aDOT/r isn't great at 5.3, but it doesn't matter when you get 13-14 targets a game, with atleast 2 RZ targets a game, his floor is just insane with almost 20 points at 0 TDs. I will say, A-Rob has caught all of his deemed catchable balls, and despite a low 12% target share on this team, he has seen 7 RZ targets, and has a bit better aDOT/r... he will have a breakout game eventually, but I'm not dart throwing it this week Henderson and Akers are in like a 60-40,50-50 split, I don't really trust either as they're capped to 12~ opportunities max a game. I'd pass.
PHI/ARI
Eagles have a great P matchup, and meh RB matchup.
Cards have a good RB matchup, and bad P matchup.
Hurts has a great ASR matchup.
Kyler has a meh ASR matchup. Connor has a good ALY push.
Eagles TTR is 3rd.
Cards TTR is T-14th.
Pace is 1st, O/UR is 1st.
- Injuries - PHI - On D, DE Johnson is out, CB Maddox out for 2nd week. On OL, Mailata is doubtful.
- ARI - On D, LB Vigil is out, DT Lawrence is out for 3rd week. On OL C Hudson is doubtful, and first in line guard Garcia is out.
It feels like Sanders finally got his largest snap share, ever?, at 67%, which coincided with 27 carries and 3 targets... thats MASSIVE. Granted, it was a bad passing weather day, and after the 1st it was a neutral to positive script. The thing is, it project to be that way today too. If sanders keeps this type of snap/volume up, he can turn into a top 5+ back easy, but one problem is Hurts can vulture, and occasionally gainwell too, but I'd rather get on this train before others. Goedert plays a lot of snaps, while averaging 5 targets a game, but its all shallow with an aDOT of 2.3, pass. AJ Brown and Devonte remind me of Jefferson/Theilen. Both are almost the same but Brown has a much bigger target share, both have aDOTs around 10~, brown has more RZ targets... some weeks smith will win, most weeks brown will 1A to 1B. I won't talk anyone of hurts, its the fastest pace, best OU, their TTR is 3rd, and he can score both ways, I think I'd rather 1 off other positional spots, but will have a game stack or two.
Connor is getting about 15~ touches a game, but he was the king of 1 yd tds last year, that hasn't fallen for him, and I'm not rostering him this week. Ertz is an ok play because of his 8~ targets a game, but he also gets them shallow, the biggest plus is his 10 RZ targets through 4 games and 85-95% snap count last 3 weeks, he has TD upside. Ro. Moore coming back officially erased Dortch, but the only WR with upside is Hollywood, he's the only one getting deep targets (if you can call it that) with an aDOT/r of 7.8, but he owns a 26.6% target share, averaging 11+ targets a game, he will have a tougher matchup this week but 10+, 80+ isn't unreasonable.
