CFL Syndicate 2025

digging into lines and cover teams a bit got to thinking.

Let’s talk teasers. They increase opportunities. The other thing that increases opportunities is cover fails but there are team limitations because the bottom team(s) are so dependent on the proper line or matchup week in week out they should only be played in certain games with line stipulations.

Okay I’m off topic a bit:

Premise: the future results I am looking for is teams off consecutive teasers fails. So I’ll dig into that. The other thing is in week 1 what if any team from the previous season excelled or failed using the extra points. What if a team the last 2 seasons were consistent bad or good in their teaser lines. In early weeks because the early season data base is slim this might be a benefit.

Be back in a few.
 
So going back 2 season the photo shows the teams that failed to their 6 point teasers. And the games highlighted are the number of times this failure occurred. The least amount of times means the team was really good and the opposite really bad. So we are going to find out if this has any meaning to the spreads and covers.
 

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As far as tonight both of these teams are the best the last 2 seasons. Who ever covers I suspect in week 2 will fail to cover.
 
Sometimes when your team lets you down for so long you start to underestimate them. I call it reverse homerism. You see it in Jets fans. I think maybe I'm guilty of that in my assessment of the Ticats defence.

So the DL is basically Howsare, Fox, Sayles & Garbutt. Its inyteresting to see Bagnah in the game. I didn't see him playing much as a rookie. And reading some Winnipeg beat writers article from LY has me thinking maybe Garbutt is going to be a really good end. We know Sayles is a top 3 DT. So this line might be substantially better than I expected.

At LB, Kyle Wilson is a stud, Dozier is a solid if unspectacular SAM and Wilborn is avg on the weak side. Call it a C+ group. #2 overall draft pick Devin Veresuk is on the roster and may see some reps. He looked more pro ready than I expected in preseason.

I may have underestimated the secondary too. On paper it looks better than I thought. Jamal Peters is an all-star corner. Destin Talbert showed some promise LY but needs to get better. Katsantonis is another all-star at safety. I totally forgot they pinched DeShaun Amos from Toronto. Thats a very solid DHB right there. And then you have Jonathan Moxey on the other corner. He really looked like a high-ceiling guy in his rookie year but since then he hasn't quite reached it.

They have a well respected new DC and I think this group could surprise.

The offence...well...what can you say. Unless Nathan Rourke goes nuclear, this would have to be the best starting offence in the league. Easily the best group of receivers in the league. Line is solid. If Bo can stay healthy, this team should be putting up 30+ points per game. If the defence is even average, they could be really good this year...maybe even grey cup good.

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Some interesting tidbits from the CFL game notes. All these trends reconfirm that totals are heading up. I may have more over this year than ever...especially in the early going.

Trends to Watch in 2025 Part 1: In 2024, there were many changes in the CFL game over 2023 noting the following core metrics
Scoring: Rose to 51.8 ppg in 2024, highest average per game since 2017.
 QB Performance: The combined Passer rating of 96.9 was the 2nd-highest in CFL history (98.3 in 2016).
 Sacks: The per game average of 3.99 was the lowest in 22 years back to 2002 (3.83 per game).
 Growing Net Offence: Games averaged only 664 net yards in 2021, then rose to ... 2022: 692 2023: 702 & 2024: 733. Up
10.4% since the 2021 return-to-play season.
 East-West: 40 inter-divisional games: East won 22 to just 16 by the West (2 ties). The 2nd year in a row for East dominance.
 FG %: Rose yet again to 87.2%, 2nd-highest in league history (88.3% in 2018).
 Parity/Competition: Eight of our nine clubs won at least 7 games and 49 of 81 contests were settled in the last 3:00.
 Penalties: Averaged just 13.6 per game lowest in the 50 seasons played since 1974. Frequency: Just 1 in every 11.5 plays.
 Return TDs: Fell to just 31 non-Offensive TDs in 2024 including just 11 on kick returns (2nd-fewest since 2011).
 Lead Changes: There were 135 in 81 games last year, up 24% from 109 in 2023.
 
I might be taking the day off from pre-games today

Dogs are already struck out on the best week and the best day. That brings us to Saturday when the favorites play. People want to see these games and the leagues popularity is when the general public has days off.

Unders ??? which good Qb is good to fade? lol. It’s a long season as the old CFL is still missing. Favorites never in my memory went 2-0 to start the season

I’m 2-0 and I want to keep undefeated. I’m not in the mood for a battle today. The dogs probably do ok and or maybe I can get an elevated like.

Calgary at home or Elks on the road. Which one is exciting? This league is much more complex at the moment and I’m not seeing the easy wins I used to


Anyway I’m watching today maybe something shows up.

My friend likes both dogs today but Saturdays are such a fight. These dogs have to win and beat quality qb’s. I need to see the parody. In my head I’m thinking it’s not arrived yet.
 
Alright, my plays are spread over a couple of pages so bringing all previously posted plays into one post for week 1...

Week 1 bets
1* Saskatchewan ML -135
1.5* EDM / BC over 48.5 -110
1* Parlay Sask / BC +147
1* Hamilton TT over 26.5 -125
1* Parlay Montreal ML / BC Lions ML +107

Futures
0.5* Hamilton to win season series vs Toronto +200
0.25* Ottawa under 10.5 RSW -104
0.5* BC Lions to win Grey Cup +750
0.2* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +1000
0.25* Justin McInnis under 1200.5 rec yards
0.25* Shemar Bridges under 1050.5 rec yards
 
until I see different the CFL is a following along league. If points are happening resist the temptation to fade. I have ingrained ideals about the league that are influencing my perception.

I just used date to figure out that week one over games to not fall back they continue. These teams are made a certain way and the rules have changed to support overs and scoring. I think I need to focus on dogs and good teams that can cover as dogs and stay away from bad teams like the Elks and Argos.

That’s what I see right now and avoid the rest until a change is made or something else is clear.
 
Over teams are a standard 20-8 over the next week then I added some filters to come to this at 12-2 overs I’ll check back on this to see who qualifies
 

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Results through Week 1

Sides 1-2 -1.50*
Totals 0-3 -4.00*
Parlays 3-1 +2.75*

Overall 4-6 -2.75*

3-2 in week 1 for just over half a unit thanks to the 2 parlays. The 2 losses were so close I easily could have gone 5-0. BC/EDM was within 4 points of the total with 7 mins to go even after Edmonton's kicker had missed 2 FGs and an xp. BC was also stopped on 3rd and goal from the 2. This game should've flown over. Hamilton came within a half point of their team total and a failed 2pt convert in the 4Q would've gotten it over. Even after that they had 2 chances for garbage time scores. Anyway, I feel pretty good about how I'm seeing the league at the moment.

Nothing jumps out at me for week 2 yet but we'll see when the majors drop lines. Hopefully by tomorrow morning.

Futures
0.5* Hamilton to win season series vs Toronto +200
0.25* Ottawa under 10.5 RSW -104 - 0-1 after week 1
0.5* BC Lions to win Grey Cup +750
0.2* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +1000
0.25* Justin McInnis under 1200.5 rec yards - 45 yards through week 1
0.25* Shemar Bridges under 1050.5 rec yards - 26 yards through week 1
 
at this point in the early season we are still seeing overs. when those lines drop and like an over might want to get is.

Should see some dogs this week

Wpg home dog
Ticats home dog
ALS
CGY

Sask put the game away after the 2nd and 3rd qtr domination. Is it a concern thay Sask didnt score in the 1st and 4th qtr? Hamilton needs poits here and put pressure on Sask to keep pace. Usually home games are better defensive games. Well see if thats correct.
 
Week 2 early thoughts...

BC/WPG
-We now have a full game of Rourke looking like his 2022 self. He had better receivers & defence then but a worse OL. Their offence averaged 36.8ppg in his 9 starts.
-Short week for BC, only 1 practice. Might not matter in week 2 and no one got hurt in week 1.
-Collaros suspended, Streveler starts.
-Can WPG defence keep Rourke in check? They are still good but slowly declining with some losses and an aging core
-If they can't, no way Streveler can keep pace with Rourke. He's a gimmick QB, good at short yardage and special situations but can't sustain a passing attack


MTL/OTT
-ALs looked the best roster top to bottom last week. Stellar defence. After making Toronto's league best OL look bad in week 1, they will feast on the redblacks OL.
-Dru Brown might be playing hurt.
-ALs should be able to exploit Ottawa's secondary

CAL/TOR
-Who starts for Toronto, Arbuckle or Kelly? Its about a 4pt upgrade to Kelly IMO
-Calgary looked impressive last week but it was more a case of Hamilton falling apart. VAj looked decent but threw 2 bad picks and no TDs
-Toronto's new defence looked very average vs Montreal.

SSK/HAM
-Sask OL is now officially a mess after adding LT Peyton Collins to the injured list
-Sask also lost AJ Oulette, Rolan Miligan & KSB
-Hamilton should look better at home against a beat up opponent but Bo has looked wild for 3 games now so I can't trust him until he settles down and starts throwing with accuracy
 
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In bold what I love here. Do you keep track of this like notes? Damn impressive


BC/WPG
-We now have a full game of Rourke looking like his 2022 self. He had better receivers & defence then but a worse OL. Their offence averaged 36.8ppg in his 9 starts.
-Short week for BC, only 1 practice. Might not matter in week 2 and no one got hurt in week 1.
-Collaros suspended, Streveler starts.
-Can WPG defence keep Rourke in check? They are still good but slowly declining with some losses and an aging core
-If they can't, no way Streveler can keep pace with Rourke. He's a gimmick QB, good at short yardage and special situations but can't sustain a passing attack

Data says Wpg other past data fades Wpg. Over? Because Wpgs strength has been the secret sauce eternal-football recipe. Run the ball make first downs not a lot of mistakes play sound D and give the ball back to the offense. As you say some of the brick wall they build needs a renovation. Will that show here. If it’s under it will be Winnipegs offense

I lean over with a lot to look at while the game is played. I have many many questions




MTL/OTT
-ALs looked the best roster top to bottom last week. Stellar defence. After making Toronto's league best OL look bad in week 1, they will feast on the redblacks OL.
-Dru Brown might be playing hurt.
-ALs should be able to exploit Ottawa's secondary.

A sound team usually gets control this has the recipe to be ALs and under.

CAL/TOR
-Who starts for Toronto, Arbuckle or Kelly? Its about a 4pt upgrade to Kelly IMO
-Calgary looked impressive last week but it was more a case of Hamilton falling apart. VAj looked decent but threw 2 bad picks and no TDs
-Toronto's new defence looked very average vs Montreal.

It caught up with me what you said was 100% fact. I’m betting Calgary because these teams were top and bottom last year. The teeter toddler is reversing. Calgary need improvement but it seems this week they will benefit from the Argos gifts. It does depend on who is QB. Either one though I don’t like vulnerable favorites that my feeling here.

SSK/HAM
-Sask OL is now officially a mess after adding LT Peyton Collins to the injured list
-Sask also lost AJ Oulette, Rolan Miligan & KSB
-Hamilton should look better at home against a beat up opponent but Bo has looked wild for 3 games now so I can't trust him until he settles down and starts throwing with accuracy.

A bit of an Iffy game with a hungry home team that was a road favorite last week. I like dogs in these situations. The book gave them a tag as a good team last week making them a chalk. Now they get a home dog like. It’s a regression set up. It still has to play out nicely.

Favorite 3-1 last week I hope that evens out.
Thanks for taking the time to break it down.
 
ANY home dog that has a rematch in an away game the next week
29-18 ats and that’s over 60%. I can go even deeper into this to get the % higher but the base factor is already playable. It means the generic formula is a play and a strong on too.

The only draw back is the line at less than 2 if I can get +2 or more it is right where it needs to be. The lines can move or some strange news comes out and the line flips!? It’s a no play.

Wpg+
 
Thursday home dogs that are under 2 points are 2-8 ats

Turn the line into 2 or more and it’s 32-14 ats

Obviously last week might establish some new data trends but this week could also be a bounce back for the dogs.

I check my hard rock app for lines futures and other odds. BC is listed 5th highest at just over 5-1 to win the cup. I think it’s off but I do think that this week it’s a WPG win in a battle.

I really love that WPG isn’t getting respect here. Because the respect and over inflation could occur in future games if they do win here. I love to see a dog win then fail as favorites. Thats been the mantra of the league in my perspective.
 
.5*/.5* BC Lions -2.5/ML -110/-140
I am taking a flyer here that the Bombers defence will have taken a half step back from last year and will struggle to keep Rourke and co in check. With BC's offence in full flight, Winnipeg's offence simply won't be able to keep up with Streveler at the helm.

1* Montreal ML -105
I didn't like what I saw from Ottawa last week and although they will likely get better, Dru Brown may be playing hurt and this Montreal defence will feast on Ottawa's banged up OL.
 
Hulu said:
.5*/.5* BC Lions -2.5/ML -110/-140
I am taking a flyer here that the Bombers defence will have taken a half step back from last year and will struggle to keep Rourke and co in check. With BC's offence in full flight, Winnipeg's offence simply won't be able to keep up with Streveler at the helm.

1* Montreal ML -105
I didn't like what I saw from Ottawa last week and although they will likely get better, Dru Brown may be playing hurt and this Montreal defence will feast on Ottawa's banged up OL.
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One of my concern is the Elks hung with BC until the 4th Q and that was home. I agree with also having concerns with Winnipeg but at least Winnipeg is not laying points. I'D like to see WPG +3 and take my chances.

It’s Wpg's week 1 and the Lions played the bad Elks so again it’s a little hard to get a grasp. If BC gets a game like they did in the 4th Q? look out I’m dead.

Not my best game of the week but I need WPG to win and this game to establish future line elevation and future fade opportunities. If WPG wins this with Strevler what happens to the lines with Collaros?
 
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I get a little bent out of shape at times when someone is against me so if my opposing arguments offend just say so. In this case I do think this is the best game either team do win or lose I really don’t mind a loss.


The preseason I don’t pay attention too much but as far as the stats, the Winnipeg defense did pretty okay against the 2 Sask back up QBs. Even the Sask back up quarter backs with short passing, the pass catchers could have escaped the line of scrimmage for big plays. It seems like that didn’t happen. I do want the over here and Winnipeg to show signs of vulnerability that’s for sure.

So yea the main thing and future betting I want Winnipeg to look bad, just not too bad because of the line impact that might have.

When Collaros returns those tge lines again will inflate.
 
spottie2935 said:
I get a little bent out of shape at times when someone is against me so if my opposing arguments offend just say so. In this case I do think this is the best game either team do win or lose I really don’t mind a loss.


The preseason I don’t pay attention too much but as far as the stats, the Winnipeg defense did pretty okay against the 2 Sask back up QBs. Even the Sask back up quarter backs with short passing, the pass catchers could have escaped the line of scrimmage for big plays. It seems like that didn’t happen. I do want the over here and Winnipeg to show signs of vulnerability that’s for sure.

So yea the main thing and future betting I want Winnipeg to look bad, just not too bad because of the line impact that might have.

When Collaros returns those tge lines again will inflate.
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I never have a problem with disagreement so long as it is presented respectfully. That's half the reason I do this thread is to hear dissenting viewpoints that help shape my own. I appreciate the info you post, even when (especially when) it contradicts my own.
 
Week 1 had 3 home favorites. All those less than -3 and more than -7 meaning not as high at -7. All favorites covered and the only dog was a home dog.


In my opinion, that is More reasons to like Montreal. away favorite or away dog isnt bad either way.



There is no strong data on the Ticats this week usually there is strong data on past away favorites or up coming away favorites. There usually is a strong case for a team if they are considered to lined as away favorites but this week the data is 50/50

To me it boils down to how Elite is Sask? They were only -3,5 to mistake prone Ottawa. I dont believe Ottawa is ever an Away favorite. With that said and only speaking about lines and reactions:

Ottawa is not a road favorite very often ! well the TiCats were, now the TiCats are home dogs that A possible line reaction

Sask only -3,5 last week now about the same at the TiCats ? Hard to give the TiCats too much Credibility at this point, but I can make a case this is a reaction to last week Not getting too much credibility is probably a good thing.

TiCats are getting a few extra in my opinion but is a few extra enough ? With a bad D maybe not. This has the potential for OVER but can Sask hold a potentially Shakey Bo Levi? Does Bo settle in at home?

Toronto could very well just be a bad team, no matter who is QB. 10 points last week. That could mean an O' line problem. All the issues that come with only scoring 10 points. Is it coaching and game plan? The coach knew it Was Arbuckle. Run the ball Keep it simple but stretch the field at times. Wr's make a big run after Catch The Concern is how much or how strong is Montreal? How vulnerable is Calgary after their lined home dog game last week? Home dogs even if they win are vulnerable teams and with Toronto only scoring 10 points this line could be way off. Montreals D is a bear to deal with and that could mean more Argo opportunities. Then dump Arbuckle and this game could have a whole different flavor.

After seeing last week and reacting to it, the play is the Argos. On the other hand it could be the following week at home against Sask that the Argos put it together. Id like to see the Argos as a home dog after another bad performance. If they perform 2 times is a row poorly thats a conformation that week 1 was how bad they are The Argos as a dog interest me not as chalk. They need this loss for me to get on them.

Lean Calg

Also this would make the home favorites 4-0 as the previous games this week dont qualify. I will assume that Montreal is a pickem or small road favorite and Winnipeg remains a home dog.
 
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Daily injury reports just released...

BC will be getting a couple of projected starting OL back that missed week 1, Anu Una and Tyler Packer.
WPG may have some OL issues as Eric Lofton is out and Pat Neufeld is listed as questionable. Collaros will be out with a 1 game suspension.

MTL looks pretty healthy overall. RB Stevie Scott who missed LW will be available. Not sure if he starts over STE or not.
OTT has Dru Brown listed as "limited" for the second straight day. DBs Howell and Lamont that missed week 1 still not practicing and safety Alonzo Addae also listed as DNP. OL still a mess with Zack Pelehos and Sam Carson (who started at LT in week 1) not practising.

CAL looks ok from the early report
TOR Chad Kelly still listed as limited, no word on whether he will start this week or if we will see Arbuckle again. LBs McManis and Rutledge listed as limited but that could just be a veteran rest day

SSK In additionan to their already banged up OL, they have star DB Rolan Miligan listed as limited. WR Kian Schaffer-Baker and DB Kosi Onyeka listed as DNP also
HAM looks mostly the same as last week.
 
Adding one more for week 2...

.75*/.25* Hamilton +3.5 / ML -114 / +156

Its hard to bet the cats with the way BLM has looked through preseason and week 1 but Sask is a bit of a MASH unit right now with a very thin OL, their #1 DB possibly out and their WLB CJ Avery just put on the 6gm. This is a chance for the cats to show they are more than the embarrassing display they put on in week 1. Call it a gut feel but I think the tabbies keep this one close and maybe even pull out the win at the end.
 
Hulu said:
Can't believe none of the major books I use have put up lines yet. Last week we had them on Monday.
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The locals and some sportsbooks here in WNY/ southern Ontario have been slow with lines and stingy with betting limits. maybe it's a coincidence, but I wonder if they've gotten their asses kicked or are tired of being middled , or bettors looking to arbitrage..

Of course it just could be the major books slow rolling waiting for a clearer picture of injuries etc ...
 
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BC has been overrated the past 2 seasons. Probably because QB injuries and performance issues. They lead the league in failed 6 point teasers since 2022. In my opinion failing a lot of teasers can sway betting opinions and until they consistently cover at least an extra 6 points more than the other teams.


On the other hand Rourke can change this quickly. If he can remain healthy they are a team trending north for sure
 
When fan duel opened their lines(looks like none of us have fan duel?). Anyways Toronto opened -5.5 now -2.5

In my opinion the best way to deal with getting the best opportunity is with wait until the game starts and see if a better opportunity presents itself or play the 1 st quarter on Calgary just in case they jump to an early 1st quarter lead and the ticket already cashed

Mist often I play first quarters for .25 unit (sometimes something is better than nothing). If the first quarter fails I decide how much I believe in what I see. My standard bet side if I lose the first qtr then becomes.75 to complete 1 unit but I can adjust the full game unit size or wait or just pass on the game lose the .25


Since the overs are the default now and this hasn’t been tracked by myself. If one waits for in game and the clock is ticking the over line keeps dropping

To address this same as above .25 pregame bet and .75 when the line hits the target. At some point in these games the scoring dies. The max points in typical games are about 60 and a very rare outcome last season of 80.


I’m not sure if this is the best strategy but I wanted to share some thoughts
 
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spottie2935 said:
When fan duel opened their lines(looks like none of us have fan duel?). Anyways Toronto opened -5.5 now -2.5

In my opinion the best way to deal with getting the best opportunity is with wait until the game starts and see if a better opportunity presents itself or play the 1 st quarter on Calgary just in case they jump to an early 1st quarter lead and the ticket already cashed

Mist often I play first quarters for .25 unit (sometimes something is better than nothing). If the first quarter fails I decide how much I believe in what I see. My standard bet side if I lose the first qtr then becomes.75 to complete 1 unit but I can adjust the full game unit size or wait or just pass on the game lose the .25


Since the overs are the default now and this hasn’t been tracked by myself. If one waits for in game and the clock is ticking the over line keeps dropping

To address this same as above .25 pregame bet and .75 when the line hits the target. At some point in these games the scoring dies. The max points in typical games are about 60 and a very rare outcome last season of 80.


I’m not sure if this is the best strategy but I wanted to share some thoughts
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I do look at the FanDuel lines but don't bet them since I am limited to <$50 there. I try not to look until I have made my own lines so I don't bias my usual process.

Its painful watching these lines slowly get beaten into shape while I can't get any serious money down. Having FD open so early with low limits has killed any advantage I used to be able to get hitting early lines.
 
I personally think that they are aggressive opening early lines because they limit exposure by tagging and limiting winners like you. Open lines early. Winner make bets. Those winners are tagged limited and or disposed of. Then all they have remaining is bettors betting later lines and losing bettors. Bet a lot, and lose as much as you want. Win? Move on and move out. They set you free. They want to discover the “winners “and “advantage “players.
 
I was living in Vegas before all the app and phone betting and yet I was still betting online. It was right before Pinny banished USA customers. I bet one football MGM parlay card a week 11 teamer wins 140k. One week I missed one game because I didn’t stick to my guns. I let something penetrate my decision. The punt return TD killed me.

Another time I did all the homework in CBB conference tourney’s and early rounds 64 tourney betting. Cashout 20gs some placed didn’t blink an eye. Station casinos were documenting me and profiling me. Surveillance photos and all.

I worked at the Wynn Encore and I would listen to customers talk. Some big sports betters were denied because they didn’t have casino betting history. These casinos don’t mind losing in the sports book if you take in the money and have a losing history playing back all the money in the casino. Player only bets sports? If not stealthy one will be limited. William hill is famous for that.


South point was also a famous book for locals. Most books were shut down over nigh to do the accounting. However they did it early and Saturday night/ Sunday morning would open at 4 am instead of 6 or 7 am They cornered the market on night/swing shift workers wanting to get all their NFL parlays in. Otherwise if they didn’t bet before Sunday they would have to wait 2 or 3 hours to get their action. 7 am opening windows also had 30 minutes wait times standing in lines unless one got their early to get a better position in line.

I used Suncoast, South Point, Silverton, M Redort and Tuscany. Then like I said Friday night was a stop in to the Luxor for my 11 teamer. All these different hotels I listed had different corporations ownership.

The problem with Vegas back in the day was time, missing lines driving to the books and gas money. I could get at Wynn if I wanted but not a good idea if I won of a problem with a game of ticket occurred. Didn’t want that mess.

I have several casino stories from there as well being a decent enough dice dealer came with adversity and good and bad memories.


Much like the Phil Ivey Baccarat scam they let big players adjust the rules a little bit as long as the bottom line was for deposit only. If the big player won the management job was to review the tape to make sure every card and every chip and all the hand were played exactly by the procedures. We signed documents when we hired on.

My biggest tip, 50k. and of course it’s split thru all dealers 24 hour period split.

The Wynn collected tips on a typical Saturday night North of 150 k. 300 to 450 each. That was in the poker boom 2006 to before the housing crash. That’s when I moved over to Encore for the opening.

Delt face to face with so many ex and current athletes, coaches, movie stars, musicians. John Tutor of Tutor Perini corp was pretty big time. He bet 17k on the 5,8 and 24k on the 6,8 depending on the point. Remember back in the day the post season awards being at the Wynn Theater. I didn’t get to see many but a few of the guys were around.

I still have friends dealing there and I’m sure I could get a part time gig there if a spot opened up. Part of the Problem with Vegas it is California's little brother and they buy up what the casino workers can’t afford. A lot of celebrities have residences there because no state tax. Dealing in Vegas isn’t easy to get a good paying job. It’s still who you know and getting your foot in the door with the mgrs that do the hiring.




Fun times.
 
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Of course I took some early stabs on:

Montreal -1.5

recently I booked WPG +3.5 conflict game but I can resist the line info from last week to this week
Asssuming (at least from recent history) WPG is better than BC’s last week opponent Elks. Bc -4.5 last week in a home game vs arguably the bottom team Elks. Until they broke free in the 4th it was close now BC on the road against arguably and unseen this year WPG. It’s an overreaction to the blowout last week and collared out.

Montreal-1.5
WPG +3.5

No action on the Saturday games but the Argos line -1.5 ? Interesting for sure

The a nice line for the TiCats on Saturday too.

Sask is better this year do this may not hold water but 2024 Sask was a dog or a favorite greater than -3 14 out of 20 games. Now already -3.5 on the road against arguably potentially higher scoring team.

Lean Ticats and probably should submit a pick at +3.5 actually going to get something down in a second as I convincing myself as I type

Montreal-1.5
Wpg +3.5
Ticats +3.5

Waiting on Argus line movement to settle in. Probably an in game play.

Over Ott Montreal 45.5 Ottawa sets up as an over team that provides MTL some scoring opportunities, but Montreal could dominate the game on defense. With scoring being up and rule changes in place to elevate these low goals the CFL has to be exciting. This game just can go under from a league stand point. Maybe I’m off my rocker for making a bet from this stand point but I like the way Ottawa plays and a low line it has the potential to be over at half time. I’m not saying will but it could.

Either way the sluggish 3 quarters for bc last week and streveler QB ing this week unless CFL Madness takes place I’ll roll under here after all that’s why a 45.5 total is the next game Friday night.


WPG +.3.5
Bc/WPG Under48.5
Montreal -1.5
Over 45.5
Ticats+3.5

Record 2-0 last week as I shut down betting due to brain fog. Nothing seemed clear on Saturday. Looking back the under should have been played with BC and Elks. Missed that one
 
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Imagine dealing to a million dollar player with 3 million in cheques in from of him and in the bank roll there us 5 million in 25k cheques and 10 million in 5k cheques. The millionaire I was dealing to is nuts. I mean crazy old guy about 70 with a 40 year old ugly Asian wife. when he 7’s out his requested amenity table has a few bananas and 2 ice buckets with towels. Out of frustration grabs a banana and squeezes the Sh!t out of it and makes a complete mess in the back ground. Cleans up with the towel starts a new game. At this time he is down to his last 300k from 3 million. Starts catching rolls and ends up +4 million. 20k come bets full odds (60k,80k, 100k odds) and cashed out. Paid 4 million in an envelope check.

8 hours of stress. When paying out 140k a roll I can get fired if I mess it up. Good thing I have the box man pit boss and casino mgr right behind me oh a surveillance of course. As far as surveillance in a casino it’s really difficult for them to be completely diligent when a game is going. They have never dealt the games. They use calculators and everything they can because most of them are now as knowledgeable. The surveillance manager is damn good though. Usually most errors are caught by the casino mgr one of his major duties is to watch all the videos checking for foul play and errors. If it’s just a big error we get a week off no pay and a meeting and sign error documents of course. If it’s foul play no warning. Game over.
 
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Dru Brown ruled out for this week as well as safety Alonzo Addae, adding to Ottawa's secondary woes.

Matt SHiltz will get the start and I would make the line 5 with him in there combined with their secondary and OL issues.
 
Hulu said:
Dru Brown ruled out for this week as well as safety Alonzo Addae, adding to Ottawa's secondary woes.

Matt SHiltz will get the start and I would make the line 5 with him in there combined with their secondary and OL issues.
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Well that’s why it-3.5 and 45.5 I got over oh well. I guess I missed his injury last week.
 
The first 3 games this week all have QB issues. Toronto issue is a starter back in place. And all those teams with an issue are home teams. This is the CFL change ups and how they create variety within the rematch schedules.
 
Ok I have to do it...

.5*/.5* Toronto -1.5/ML -109/-128

I always say that week 2 is about not overreacting to week 1 and this line move is a major overreaction. Lets take a look at what happened last week.

Yes Calgary got an unexpected home win but didn't exactly look good doing it. VAj was 19/28 for 284yds with no TDs and 2 bad interceptions. That game was more a case of Hamilton looking like the worst defence in the league than Calgary doing anything great. Their defence which was constructed with 11/12 new starters, was made to look very competent vs a Hamilton QB who has been throwing wild since preseason. But its still a brand new unit and will need time to jell before looking that good against a competent offence.

Toronto OTOH had to travel to Montreal to face the best team and best defence in the league and was beaten in every phase. They had a lot of roster changes in the offseason too and need some time to come together, especially on defence. Their DL is a work in progress but their back 8 are still pretty good.

So we have a Calgary team off a home win vs a bottom dweller travelling to visit a Toronto team who lost on the road to the league's premier team. Its the classic setup for an overreaction and I think that's what this line represents.

I hate having a play on every game in a week but its not the first time and early in the season I am inclined to push a bit harder because the lines are the softest early on and by doing our homework we can take advantage.
 
I should add that although nothing is official, according to reports out of practice Arbuckle has been taking first team reps with Horn leading the second team. Kelly is present and in pads but not throwing or running.

I think there's an 80% chance its Arbuckle starting and that's ok.
 
I’m m watching the QB situation in Toronto my buddy clued me in its buckle again. I’m not sure if this but if it is I have to take the dog. Honestly favorites are 3-0 and if it’s Arbuckle this is an opportunity for a dog win.

I read that Rourke struggles against Wpg. Well that’s understandable BC might have a better team this season. He also has done very good weapons.

I read into the injury report. 5 BC linebackers were limited or out at practice so far this week. With Strveler does that mean more Olivera ? Teams /dogs with strong rushing attacks cover spreads. They can limit their opponents opportunities. Much like offensive zone time in NFL. Play keep away.

BC were the last and late game on Saturday not first out Thursday.

Bombers +3.5
in my head, this feels more peaceful.

Dru Brown is out?
Adding more to:
Montreal -1.5
Montreal -4.5
I got off the over here too


ArBuckle is starting ?
Stamps +113


WPG +.3.5
Bc/WPG Under48.5
Montreal -1.5
Montreal -4.5
Over 45.5 under 46
Ticats+3.5
Stamps +113
 
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