CFL Syndicate 2025

[spottie2935]

digging into lines and cover teams a bit got to thinking.

Let’s talk teasers. They increase opportunities. The other thing that increases opportunities is cover fails but there are team limitations because the bottom team(s) are so dependent on the proper line or matchup week in week out they should only be played in certain games with line stipulations.

Okay I’m off topic a bit:

Premise: the future results I am looking for is teams off consecutive teasers fails. So I’ll dig into that. The other thing is in week 1 what if any team from the previous season excelled or failed using the extra points. What if a team the last 2 seasons were consistent bad or good in their teaser lines. In early weeks because the early season data base is slim this might be a benefit.

Be back in a few.

 

[spottie2935]

So going back 2 season the photo shows the teams that failed to their 6 point teasers. And the games highlighted are the number of times this failure occurred. The least amount of times means the team was really good and the opposite really bad. So we are going to find out if this has any meaning to the spreads and covers.

 

[spottie2935]

As far as tonight both of these teams are the best the last 2 seasons. Who ever covers I suspect in week 2 will fail to cover.

 

[spottie2935]

Away favorites that failed to cover a teaser last 2 games 11-4 ats and the away dogs are 43-35 55%

 

[Hulu]

Sometimes when your team lets you down for so long you start to underestimate them. I call it reverse homerism. You see it in Jets fans. I think maybe I'm guilty of that in my assessment of the Ticats defence.

So the DL is basically Howsare, Fox, Sayles & Garbutt. Its inyteresting to see Bagnah in the game. I didn't see him playing much as a rookie. And reading some Winnipeg beat writers article from LY has me thinking maybe Garbutt is going to be a really good end. We know Sayles is a top 3 DT. So this line might be substantially better than I expected.

At LB, Kyle Wilson is a stud, Dozier is a solid if unspectacular SAM and Wilborn is avg on the weak side. Call it a C+ group. #2 overall draft pick Devin Veresuk is on the roster and may see some reps. He looked more pro ready than I expected in preseason.

I may have underestimated the secondary too. On paper it looks better than I thought. Jamal Peters is an all-star corner. Destin Talbert showed some promise LY but needs to get better. Katsantonis is another all-star at safety. I totally forgot they pinched DeShaun Amos from Toronto. Thats a very solid DHB right there. And then you have Jonathan Moxey on the other corner. He really looked like a high-ceiling guy in his rookie year but since then he hasn't quite reached it.

They have a well respected new DC and I think this group could surprise.

The offence...well...what can you say. Unless Nathan Rourke goes nuclear, this would have to be the best starting offence in the league. Easily the best group of receivers in the league. Line is solid. If Bo can stay healthy, this team should be putting up 30+ points per game. If the defence is even average, they could be really good this year...maybe even grey cup good.

 

[Hulu]

Some interesting tidbits from the CFL game notes. All these trends reconfirm that totals are heading up. I may have more over this year than ever...especially in the early going.

Trends to Watch in 2025 Part 1: In 2024, there were many changes in the CFL game over 2023 noting the following core metrics
 Scoring: Rose to 51.8 ppg in 2024, highest average per game since 2017.
 QB Performance: The combined Passer rating of 96.9 was the 2nd-highest in CFL history (98.3 in 2016).
 Sacks: The per game average of 3.99 was the lowest in 22 years back to 2002 (3.83 per game).
 Growing Net Offence: Games averaged only 664 net yards in 2021, then rose to ... 2022: 692 2023: 702 & 2024: 733. Up
10.4% since the 2021 return-to-play season.
 East-West: 40 inter-divisional games: East won 22 to just 16 by the West (2 ties). The 2nd year in a row for East dominance.
 FG %: Rose yet again to 87.2%, 2nd-highest in league history (88.3% in 2018).
 Parity/Competition: Eight of our nine clubs won at least 7 games and 49 of 81 contests were settled in the last 3:00.
 Penalties: Averaged just 13.6 per game lowest in the 50 seasons played since 1974. Frequency: Just 1 in every 11.5 plays.
 Return TDs: Fell to just 31 non-Offensive TDs in 2024 including just 11 on kick returns (2nd-fewest since 2011).
 Lead Changes: There were 135 in 81 games last year, up 24% from 109 in 2023.

 

[Hulu]

You know what...

0.2* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +1000

Because why the hell not?

 

[spottie2935]

You know what...

0.2* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +1000

Because why the hell not?

I’d love to see it. Just like I loved to see Winnipeg. Now I’m tired of them.

 

[spottie2935]

I might be taking the day off from pre-games today

Dogs are already struck out on the best week and the best day. That brings us to Saturday when the favorites play. People want to see these games and the leagues popularity is when the general public has days off.

Unders ??? which good Qb is good to fade? lol. It’s a long season as the old CFL is still missing. Favorites never in my memory went 2-0 to start the season

I’m 2-0 and I want to keep undefeated. I’m not in the mood for a battle today. The dogs probably do ok and or maybe I can get an elevated like.

Calgary at home or Elks on the road. Which one is exciting? This league is much more complex at the moment and I’m not seeing the easy wins I used to


Anyway I’m watching today maybe something shows up.

My friend likes both dogs today but Saturdays are such a fight. These dogs have to win and beat quality qb’s. I need to see the parody. In my head I’m thinking it’s not arrived yet.

 

[Hulu]

Alright, my plays are spread over a couple of pages so bringing all previously posted plays into one post for week 1...

Week 1 bets
1* Saskatchewan ML -135
1.5* EDM / BC over 48.5 -110
1* Parlay Sask / BC +147
1* Hamilton TT over 26.5 -125
1* Parlay Montreal ML / BC Lions ML +107

Futures
0.5* Hamilton to win season series vs Toronto +200
0.25* Ottawa under 10.5 RSW -104
0.5* BC Lions to win Grey Cup +750
0.2* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +1000
0.25* Justin McInnis under 1200.5 rec yards
0.25* Shemar Bridges under 1050.5 rec yards

 

[jimmymo]

LFG Hulu......GL this year