CFB week 8-- live from vegas

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
Posted on CTG

31-31, +1025
__________________________________________________ _________

Nice week last week to get me in the positive after a rough start. Juiced out Saturday going 2-2 but hit my big play on Iowa.

In vegas this week, thus getting an early start on my research. As most know I rarely post until day of event. This week I'll document some of my thoughts as I go along and hopefully some will jump in to fill in the gaps..

This is a key week for me as being in Vegas with a large bankroll (see Cardinals season win bet) its important that I have all my plays and units lined up by Thursday--- due to other distractions;)

Here is what I am looking at.. All bets will be made at one of three places- Wynn (based there), Hilton and Ceasars. I will note where I made the bet as I lock them in.

(edit: change of plans, not getting to vegas until late Thursday now so some of these early plays are on-line)

Locked in plays:

TCU -1, -115; 4 units WIN
KU +20, -110; 4 units WIN

adds:

Iowa -4, -110; 2 unit.. Wynn WIN
KU +20, -110; 4 units ..Hilton (now on it for 8 units , see note on screen #60) WIN
Uconn +3, -120; 4 units.. WIN
Mi Ohio +9.5, -110; 4 units. Wynn WIN
Rice -2.5, -110, 2 units WIN


leans: (mostly dogs)

UConn ( played)
Kansas (played)
Miss St (likely play)
Michigan
Rice
Mizzu (now at 4, off and may consider TX)
Virg (off)
Baylor
Purdue (OFF)
Ole Miss
Wake F (off)
Akron
MTSU
FIU
Iowa (likely play but waiting for 3)
Iowa State
Mi Ohio
TCU ( played)
 
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Tee,

I am going to be in Vegas this weekend at the Palms for my bachelor party with a bunch of friends. Looking forward to a big weekend.

We got a cabana at the pool on Sat and will be watching all the games in the sun.

Look forward to your picks
 
Uconn and Wake! Uconn and Wake!

Have a great time bro, let me know if you're playing any bases! There are a bunch of dumb dumbs in the poker room there at The Wynn:)
 
Good Luck TeeDub . Still disgusted about those Texans . I need to get better organized when I do parlays rather then rushing them last minute . Seems to be the same deal every week take 1 tough loss and see 15-20 unit swings .

No research off the top of my head thoughts and I mean NO research !!

Anyway watching RU @ Cincy now t o get a handle on this RU team . So hard to pass on UConn . I know the line looks short but I think RU has built this perception up and its tough for bettors to get away from them especially seeing some ATS wins on the road . Huskies off a misleading loss which was off a misleading win . Thing is Huskies probably are cheap because I cant see how Louisville isnt about a TD better then RU at the moment . So that +3.5 for UConn there makes me think they have to be small favs so why did they leave it a tad short .

Updating __
Watching Rutgers for the most part defense is not there problem but one flaw I recall is the difference in 1st H defense vs 2nd H defense for them . Most of the time there defense has played very well in the 1st H and then either offensive adjustments or fatigue whatever have lead to alot worse play and production in 2nd H . Definetly an issue IMO vs Navy , UNC and Fresno . The offense same old shit either Teel misses Wide open WRs as he had a guy wide open clear past the secondary right before halftime and underthrew him badly w/o much pressure . Then he fires the next pass that would have been a 1st down to a WR just to high and hard possibly alittle behind the WR as well . Then you have the plague of drops from WRs . Its scary because the ability to score is still there but since that 1st H vs Fresno we see the same type shit . Missed WRs , poorly thrown balls and case of the dropsies which never ever get corrected as in NO improvement . Kordell Young adds some life to the running game and he threw a TD . There is some hope as its not a talent problem as much as execution issue IMO . Crazy thing was TD by Rutgers to start the 3rd only and 1st points of the year in the 3rd Quarter !! So they are struggling in 2nd Hs ....


Like Kansas plus those points as well . No real insight KU better then they get credit for and OU off the tough loss and some defensive injuries think its a test . Probably see the bounce back action on OU here but not sure its a great spot to bounce back with a 3 TD win . Sort of like KU as comparable to TCU with slightily worse defense but much better offense well passing game .

On the fence with Miss State . I faded the hell out of Vandy and due to some good timing had Miss State at +3.5 in that one. Just not that impressed with the win as Vandy is just a medicore team making plays every week to sneak by . They failed to make any big momentum changers and lost . The Vols defense has been very solid and at time the offense though usually off momentum changers moved the ball @ georgia . Significant improvement from previous game I thought and huge droppoff facing Vandy's lowest rated statistical SEC defense which has featsed on turnovers . Anyway type game where I can see Tenny winning by 10 like literally 10 points and making the Bulldog backers feel like they had the right side .

Think anything above 20 points is great value in Michigan . Just have to worry about this team playing a full game and executing . Off a sad loss to Toledo though one would hope Rodriguez has his team focused . Its hard to believe it could happen but this is just one of the spots where Michigan at +24 could just baffle with a possible SU win . Penn State off crushing win @ Wisky coming home riding high and Michigan off crushing low . Perfection example extremes probably skewing perception . Thinking in backwards term have Ill rated about -5 vs Michigan on a neutral field and Penn St hosted ILL as -15 so then -20 as the high end really makes sense to me ......How bout 31-14 game ?

Rice is gonna score alot and So Miss doesnt look like it can keep up but not a fan of a defense -less team laying points to an above avg defense in So Miss ...jury out on this still

Missouri now catching a TD looks great although I think Chase Daniel was kinda exposed for his inability to make some things happen when his team needed him to and the game positioned itself for a Missouri comeback .

I tend to lean Baylor as well as another reaction but not sure . Okie State could be in letdown mode just in terms of execution see more slopiness then any sort of flat feel to them . Especially returning home after a big upset win . Just baylor tends to look much better vs weak teams . OU game has me real concerned when looking at Baylor because of how they were exploited vs the pass . This should be a real high scoring game though as I wouldnt expect the same type defensive intensity from Okie State as @ Mizzou . Would expect around a 70(whether high 60s or tad more) total and expect 70 something points...Baylor defense my concern especially seeing how Okie State disposed of Houston or there AKA Baylor's big brotha .

I am sold on UVA but UNC just might be that good to win by a TD . UNC definetly better then ECU IMO and simliar spread but also just as good or better then Maryland who was DDS heer 2 weeks ago. So has the wins drained some UVA value . ECU has been spiraling since Tulane IMO . UNC did win 2 games they were outplayed in at home and lost a key WR as well . However have to think UConn and ND grade much higher then UVA does . Say that because one would expect UConn and ND to be around Pks to small favs say -3 hosting UNC and well see UVA as at least a TD worse then thos eprograms maybe good 10 points ...so -6 seems right on paper

Have to look at Purdue more can they fix the offense ? Northwestern was just ripe with there undefeated record but like Vandy had alot of wins vs medicore teams who could defeated NW with better execution IMO ...Purdue may have just went into coast mode with Tiller gone and Painetr struggling ...

What do you see in WF ? Though they looked terrible and could have lost any of there games since Baylor and possible 1 play away from losing all 4 . Think Maryland should be small favs IMO

Tough to pass on schitzo Ole Miss catching nearly 2 TDS . One issue is Ole Miss is sloppy and has to many turnovers so far playing one of the best defenses in the land . They could outplay Bama by a clear margin except have those momentum shifting turnovers that take away 3 and 7 pts from there end and give it to the Bama team . Seeing that happen 2 or 3 times would not suprise me .


Also Tee enjoy Vegas and BOL out there . Enjoy the Cards winnings:cheers:
 
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Oh, hey T, I know that this isn't one of your leans but as you're looking into stuff do me a favor and give me your thoughts on Pitt/Navy. Really like Pitt alot in this one and am a little concerned about the line as I thought it would have been higher (not sure what I am missing here). I know that they have been on a roll the last couple of weeks (impressive win over Wake in that run) but I think Pitt's defense gets it done. Let me know your thoughts if you have a minute. :popcorn:
 
Mags said:
Oh, hey T, I know that this isn't one of your leans but as you're looking into stuff do me a favor and give me your thoughts on Pitt/Navy. Really like Pitt alot in this one and am a little concerned about the line as I thought it would have been higher (not sure what I am missing here). I know that they have been on a roll the last couple of weeks (impressive win over Wake in that run) but I think Pitt's defense gets it done. Let me know your thoughts if you have a minute. :popcorn:
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Good Luck Mags . Love Pitt myself . I think Navy 3 straight wins adding to there strength in terms of the line. Think winning at WF very similiar to winning @ USF . One team was as a 14 pt dog the other 16 or 17 pt dog and would see that USF little better team so looks about right on the surface ....:cheers:
 
Mags said:
Oh, hey T, I know that this isn't one of your leans but as you're looking into stuff do me a favor and give me your thoughts on Pitt/Navy. Really like Pitt alot in this one and am a little concerned about the line as I thought it would have been higher (not sure what I am missing here). I know that they have been on a roll the last couple of weeks (impressive win over Wake in that run) but I think Pitt's defense gets it done. Let me know your thoughts if you have a minute. :popcorn:
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As you know I have been following Pitt all year but Navy is always tough for me to cap as they do things that most other teams don't do which makes their success or lack thereof hard to predict IMO... Especially their offense vs an opposing defense.. I usually look at situations when it involves Navy.. For example, if Pitt would have played So Fla and then have a short week to prepare for Navy I would definately have some intitial interest in Navy.. But the opposite is true. Pitt having 16 days to prepare is interesting..

But to be honest bro, Don't think it will make my short list .. Very small lean with the Panthers but I don't even come close to playing games like this.. Too much like gambling;)

GL this week:cheers:

Never have played much poker in Vegas..If I did I would Probably be one of the guys you are talking about..
 
add Iowa to my initial lean list.. Really thought this may come out closer to a pick.. Really I think both teams are undervalued now, if that makes sense...

Iowa is going to be trouble for everyone left on their schedule IMO. Again, they are 9 points from being undefeated and getting better.. They now have established Hampton as a threat at RB in addition to NFL bound Shonn Greene.. Greene's style is brusing and wears down opponents but it also tends to ding him up throughout the game.. Now with the ability to bring in Hampton, fresh it is going to creat problems.. Both gained 100+ yards in Saturdays romp.. Stanzi settling in at QB and the defense as stout as ever..

This is a strength vs strength matchup.. Both are physical in the trenches but I would label Iowa physicality a little more athletic... This will be a pound it out affair and one must also give caonsideration to the under... I will have lots more on this... Check Greene's status.. Hard to figure Ferenz injury report though as Greene is on it every week.. We'll see if he practicing Wednesday.. That is info that can be had and usually is a good tell tell sign..
 
Like CB, I use a lot of local newspapers and blogs for my research.

Here is a good one on Chase Daniels.. He will have a lot to play for this week and situationally even without the "Texas snub angle" detailed below I think he is due for a huge bounceback after last weeks disappointment.. Also situationally, Texas couldn't be more ripe for a letdown IMO..

Not to mention, I believe Mizzo is the better team.. And getting a TD.. Likely play.

Southlake: At home with Daniel's family, in Tigers' camp
By Vahe Gregorian
ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH
Monday, Oct. 13 2008
SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS — Before he morphed into the face of University of Missouri
football and perhaps a pillar of the program for years to come, Chase Daniel
spent much of his life craving one identity more than anything else.

When Todd Dodge, his coach at Southlake Carroll High, asked what school he'd
like to recruit him "in a perfect world," the answer was almost redundant.

"Coach, my dream is to go to the University of Texas," Dodge recalled Daniel
telling him his junior year. "I've been a Longhorn all my life."

That idea was endorsed by Dodge, a native of Port Arthur, Texas, who had been a
Longhorns quarterback himself, and it would have thrilled the Daniel family.

"When you're from Texas, you want to be a Longhorn," Daniel's mother, Vickie,
said Sunday at their home. "He was born and raised in Texas. He's a Texan, you
know, and that's just all he knew. That's all he watched. That's all he heard."

Texas stood stonefaced on Daniel until the 11th hour, when it dangled the
possibility of a scholarship to Daniel only after another player reneged.

Yet when the fantasy he'd so long harbored was rekindled, Daniel declined.

He had made a commitment, after all, to Missouri, and the point of honor
trumped Texas' late inquiry about his interest.

"Everybody breaks commitments nowadays. Chase was always brought up to be a man
of his word," said Daniel's father, Bill, invoking his own father's teaching
that "your handshake's your bond.

"It doesn't take a written contract or anything like that, but it's the
qualities of being a real man that say you stand by your word."

The implications of Texas and Daniel's decisions will converge Saturday in
Austin, where the top-ranked Longhorns (6-0) take on No. 11 Mizzou (5-1). The
intrigue extends even to Daniel's counterpart:

Texas is led by Colt McCoy, who over the weekend supplanted Daniel as the
Heisman Trophy frontrunner and, essentially, was chosen by Texas over Daniel, a
Heisman finalist last season.

Yet if there were hurt feelings four years ago, perhaps feelings that linger,
Texas' judgment in fact was to the prosperity of all concerned.

"Chase and Colt were in the same class (McCoy redshirted his first season), and
one of them would have transferred if we got both of them anyway," Texas coach
Mack Brown said after the Longhorns toppled No. 1 Oklahoma on Saturday.

He added: "You never know when you choose a school if it's going to work out
great for you, but Colt went where he should have gone, and, obviously, Chase
went where he should have gone. Because it's been a magical career for him at
Missouri."

Daniel's parents, Dodge and no doubt Mizzou coaches and fans feel the same.

"Chase is exactly where he's supposed to be," said Vickie Daniel, echoing the
very words Dodge, now the University of North Texas coach, had spoken in Denton
earlier Sunday. "It couldn't have been scripted any better."

But there was a piercing aspect of the process.

While the Daniels and Dodge appreciated Texas' candor, telling them they didn't
plan to offer him a scholarship because he was shorter (about 5 feet 11) than
their prototype, they also didn't understand how they could label him so
coldly. Being told "he's as good as he's ever going to get," as Texas offensive
coordinator Greg Davis told Bill Daniel, had a certain gnawing effect. Davis
said Saturday he's "not surprised (Daniel) has gone on to have a great career."

But he wasn't alone in being skeptical then.

Numerous "college coaches all felt like he had no upside," Dodge said, shaking
his head even today. "I just felt like yelling from the mountaintop that that
was the exact opposite of what this kid was all about."

What he wanted to be all about evolved. Once, the Daniels' house brimmed with
Longhorns memorabilia, now boxed and put away, perhaps for good.

Now a Mizzou welcome mat sits on the front entrance, a stained-glass Tigers
helmet adorns a front window, and Bill and Vickie Daniel each come to the door
in Mizzou T-shirts. Their dog, Cookie, wanders the house in a Missouri No. 10
jersey, a baby-sized version of the one they have placed over a stuffed tiger
on their second floor outside Chase's room.

As they spoke Sunday, Bill Daniel walked to the front-hall closet and pulled
out a small Texas windbreaker, playfully saying, "That's the only thing left."
But a picture remains of Brown and Daniel in Chase's room.

"Chase likes him. He really does," Vickie said. "He was so very disappointed,
but it never was a bitter thing."

He had a last chance to soothe his disappointment. After hot-shot recruit Ryan
Perilloux reneged on Texas late in the signing period, Davis called Dodge to
try to gauge whether Daniel still might be available.

Dodge said he told him he didn't think Daniel would be interested but that he'd
let Daniel know he'd asked.

"Chase said, 'Coach, you know the answer,'" Dodge recalled. —"'I'm going to
Missouri. These people have been true to me.'"

And perhaps in the end all was true to what it should have been. After all,
Daniel has given Missouri something he never could have given Texas.

"Chase, yes, would have been successful at Texas," Vickie Daniel said.
"However, Texas has always been prominent. He is so, so happy there, and he
feels good that he helped bring the program back at Missouri."

Even if it wasn't the way he once envisioned it.
 
Iowa is going to be a play-- waiting on the number..

Don't think Wisky can run on Iowa and their unsettled situation at QB has to be a concern.

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[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]Losses have Badgers reeling[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]
By Andy Hamilton
Iowa City Press-Citizen [/FONT]Wisconsin resided in college football’s elite neighborhood and had a view overlooking the rest of the Big Ten in the national rankings at the beginning of conference play.

Three weeks and three defeats later, the Badgers have gone from ninth in the country to last in their league, from feeling good about the start of their season to wondering just where it’s headed after an epic collapse against Penn State, from rubbing shoulders with Texas and Alabama to crashing with Indiana in the Big Ten basement.

“It’s obviously tough, it’s not what we expected,” Wisconsin offensive lineman John Moffitt said Saturday night after the Nittany Lions blitzed the Badgers 48-7 in Madison. “We have goals and we have expectations of ourselves and we have expectations of our team, and I think those things aren’t being met right now. But the great thing about it is there’s always next week, and we have a lot more season left.”

The second half of the season begins Saturday for the Badgers (3-3, 0-3 Big Ten) with a trip to Kinnick Stadium and a meeting with an Iowa (4-3, 1-2) team feeling good about itself again after whipping Indiana 45-9 last weekend to end a three-game losing streak of its own.

This may be a return to his old stomping grounds for Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema. But it’s new terrain as a head coach for the former Iowa captain and assistant. The Badgers won 17 of their first 18 games under Bielema. They’re 7-7 since and trying to shake off the school’s most lopsided home defeat in 19 years.

“I told the kids on Sunday that if I had an issue with the lack of effort, the lack of desire, the lack of toughness in any phase of our game, we would be going through a pretty intense drill period out on the field, we’d be going through an intense film session,” Bielema said. “But what I saw in all phases of the game was attention to detail. We were doing enough things before the snap that created negative situations that prevented us from winning the football game or having a chance to score points or stop them from scoring points.”

The Badgers couldn’t see this coming before they ran into Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. Wisconsin has 16 starters back from the squad that finished 9-4 a year ago and made its fourth straight January bowl appearance.

“I know we have a large majority of seniors in our starting lineup, guys who have been through some adversity, guys who understand tough times bring about tough people, and tough people are the ones who last,” Bielema said. “I know we’re in a difficult situation where we are.”

Wisconsin starts the week with uncertainty at quarterback. Senior Allan Evridge completed just 2 of his 10 passes for 50 yards with an interception against Penn State. He was replaced by junior Dustin Sherer, who went 9-of-17 for 115 yards with a pick.

“How they handle this week will determine what happens on Saturday,” Bielema said.

EXTRA POINTS: There were no major changes or notable absences on the depth chart Iowa released Monday. Tight end Brandon Myers and defensive end Adrian Clayborn, who left the Indiana game with injuries, are both listed as starters. Tight end Tony Moeaki, who sat out against the Hoosiers with a leg injury, is not listed on the two-deep. … Iowa junior Shonn Greene is the only running back in the country to rush for at least 100 yards in seven games this season. Greene needs 63 yards to reach the 1,000 mark.
 
Will be against you on this one Tee. Will put my thoughts on this game in your thread if you dont mind. Love the Badgers as a dog in this one
 
signalcaller said:
Will be against you on this one Tee. Will put my thoughts on this game in your thread if you dont mind. Love the Badgers as a dog in this one
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Don't mind at all.. :shake:You will have a lot of company on the Badgers.

To be honest, I can't find one thing that puts me on the Badgers. They are emotionally a wreck, and this is the wrong team and wrong place to play with that state of mind.. They look like a team that is ready to quit on the season to me.. Iowa, on the otherhand, is hungry and eager to establish themselves.

Situational..

Forget for a moment that Wisky was highly ranked earlier.. They have been nothing short of a huge disappoinment and when you lay an egg at home like they did LW and then travel to play a very physical team--- I just don't see it, but listening:shake:
 
add to my lean list:

Iowa State
Mi Ohio

Get some detail on these two later.. I'll whittle this down by Friday. Think ISU is probably a play..

Probably boring some people but this is my weekly process.. Aim small, miss small.. Probably get 4 or 5 plays off this list..

Really like this weeks card and the timing is right..

Someone from Nebraska give me a reason why they should be laying nearly a TD on the road against a team that had a much better team than Neb (KU) on the ropes two weeks ago..Bad spot for Neb IMO
 
Nebraska found their offense this past week. Nebraska outplayed tx tech and probably should have won the game. Nebraska played walk ons at LB last week due to injuries. Their best 2 LBers did not play. Both practiced this week and will play. Ricky Thenarse, the best defensive special teams player and a backup safety didn't play either. He's back as well. Husker D showed some serious improvement in the second half. You could see the confidence growing.

Nebraska really simplified the offense. Pelini got much more involved with the offensive game plan and had Watson, the OC, focus on what Nebraksa does well. This is much more zone read, rollout passing. Basically, it's the same offense that Nebraska ran the last 3 games of last year when Ganz threw for a ton of yardage against KU, CU, and KSU. Ganz had a phenominal game last week other than the INT on the last play in OT. Not sure why they didn't do this sooner, but it's mostly b/c they wanted to turn themselves into a power running team.

Huskers have lost 3 in a row and are very hungry for a win. Ames is only 2.5 hours away from Omaha, so it's usually not too much of a homefield advantage for the Clones. I'm pretty high on Huskers -6 this week.

Also, I don't think KU is a much better team than NU. In fact, I think Neb will be favored when they play next month.
 
cubsker said:
Nebraska found their offense this past week. Nebraska outplayed tx tech and probably should have won the game. Nebraska played walk ons at LB last week due to injuries. Their best 2 LBers did not play. Both practiced this week and will play. Ricky Thenarse, the best defensive special teams player and a backup safety didn't play either. He's back as well. Husker D showed some serious improvement in the second half. You could see the confidence growing.

Nebraska really simplified the offense. Pelini got much more involved with the offensive game plan and had Watson, the OC, focus on what Nebraksa does well. This is much more zone read, rollout passing. Basically, it's the same offense that Nebraska ran the last 3 games of last year when Ganz threw for a ton of yardage against KU, CU, and KSU. Ganz had a phenominal game last week other than the INT on the last play in OT. Not sure why they didn't do this sooner, but it's mostly b/c they wanted to turn themselves into a power running team.

Huskers have lost 3 in a row and are very hungry for a win. Ames is only 2.5 hours away from Omaha, so it's usually not too much of a homefield advantage for the Clones. I'm pretty high on Huskers -6 this week.

Also, I don't think KU is a much better team than NU. In fact, I think Neb will be favored when they play next month.
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Excellent post.. Thanks.. Got me thinking..:shake:

Sidenote-- no disrepect meant but if Neb is favored over KU , I will be on KU large (assuming no injuries between now and then..)
 
Like that Iowa game too, but have not seen my book come off 3.5 - would obviously much rather get 3

Any thoughts on Arkansas get 10 at KY? Loving the hogs here - they are getting better every week
 
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Streakin said:
Like that Iowa game too, but have not seen my book come off 3.5 - would obviously much rather get 3

Any thoughts on Arkansas get 10 at KY? Loving the hogs here - they are getting better every week
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Crossed it off early due to injuries, but I'll swing back and look at it..:cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
Excellent post.. Thanks.. Got me thinking..:shake:

Sidenote-- no disrepect meant but if Neb is favored over KU , I will be on KU large (assuming no injuries between now and then..)
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I think over the next few weeks you'll see that these two teams are very even. It will be interesting to compare how KU does this week vs. how NU does in a few weeks when they also play @ OU.
 
Blue_Chip said:
I'd like to hear your reasoning on Mizzou being a better team than Texas. GL this week and have fun in Vegas.
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Not a huge difference but yes on a neutral field Mizzu is better IMO. Texas guys won't agree but Daniels is by far the better QB mostly because of his experience and because he has superior down field threats. Maclin changes field position on nearly every special teams play as well..

Mostly though BC I like the situation.. Can't be a better spot for Mizzu or a worse spot for Texas.. The fact that Mizzu dropped in the polls so much also helps.. Catching a TD.. yep
 
UConn
Kansas
Miss St (likely play)
Michigan (likely play)
Rice
Mizzu
Virg
Baylor (likely play)
Purdue
Ole Miss
Wake F
Iowa
Iowa State
Mi Ohio
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All over Mizzou and Iowa. Pretty much same sentiments.

Starting to like Kansas too. Would like to hear thoughts.

Thats a large number on Michigan. Reason its tough for me to consider is this is a decades worth of frustration for PSU finally coming to an end. Not sure if they go soft in second half provided they are up by a comfortable margin.

GL this week, enjoy your vegas vaca<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->
 
B.A.R. said:
Starting to like Kansas too. Would like to hear thoughts.
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Think LVSC opened KU up at +14,, was +18 a couple days ago and now I see +20 all over the place..

Two reasons BAR and I'll add color later as this will almost definately be a play now.

1) KU scores 30 on everyone and Okie will be no different IMO. Sometimes they score it early (at USF) and sometimes they do it late (at Iowa State) but you can count on 4 TD's minimum from this offense.
2) because KU controls the ball so much, Okie is not going to drop half a hundred on 'em, I just don't see it. Okie blows out teams with vastly inferior offensive talent because they can three and out you to death, wear out the opponents defense and then really roll late..

I can see a KU straight up victory to be honest but I am very comfortable with nearly three TDs of wiggle room. And if Okie goes up big early, I am also quite comfortable a backdoor cover will be in the picture to the very end..

I need to check to make sure I am not missing an injury but this one will be locked in soon.. Anyone think it jumps to 21? I don't think so but probly no harm in waiting a bit.

Michigan getting 24 points is also insane BAR.. Question is can Michigan score enough and especially late in a 35-10 type game.. This is why I like KU so much more is I have no question they will score.. Michigan, I like but worry about them getting to 20..

Right now KU is much closer to a play than Michigan but they both might make the final list at different unit amounts.

KU is possible top unit material..
 
I assume everyone knows about the loss of Okie LB and leading tackler last week.. If not, here is the info.. Significant loss and with KU improved running game up next it reinforces my belief that KU will have some success controlling the clock and keeping their defense off the field.

__________

DALLAS -- Losing middle linebacker Ryan Reynolds didn't just rip one of the primary playmakers out of Oklahoma's defense.

It also opened the gates for a late Texas rushing boon and a run of late Sooner penalties after the junior middle linebacker was lost with a season-ending torn anterior cruciate ligament early in the third quarter.

Reynolds appeared to try to continue for several snaps before hobbling off the field. He limped to the sidelines and returned before the end of the game with the leg immobilized.

The shell-shocked Sooners never recovered as Texas charged to a 45-35 victory. After Reynolds' injury, the Longhorns erupted on a 25-3 run to finish off the upset.

"Any time anybody gets injured it will affect your defense or your offense," Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops said. "Ryan has been a major force and is a leader. It impacted us."

The injury affected how Stoops called plays late in the game. The Sooners' unsuccessful fake punt late in the third quarter was called to help give his team a boost of momentum after the injury, Stoops said.

Injuries are obviously a part of football. But they also have a big part of the overall success of a team. When the Sooners won the 2000 national championship, they sustained no major injuries that kept players out of the lineup for extended periods.

Texas players could discern a difference in Oklahoma's defense after Reynolds' departure. It was also no coincidence that Texas' rushing game started clicking as soon as he left the game.

"Ryan is the heart and soul of their defense," Texas quarterback Colt McCoy said. "When he went out, it didn't change anything for us. Their secondary backed off a little bit and that allowed us to use (Texas tailback) Chris [Ogbonnaya] to get a couple of big runs. It was a big momentum changer for us."

Reynolds was coming off the best game of his career. He graded out with a perfect score last week in the Sooners' victory over Baylor -- the first time that Oklahoma defensive coordinator Brent Venables had ever had one of his players notch that score.

"I don't know how it affected us out there," Venables said. "Obviously, you feel terrible for him having to go through that. He is a big part of what we do. He gets guys lined up for our checks and those kinds of things."

It represented the third serious knee injury that Reynolds had suffered in less than three years. He tore the left anterior ligament during the spring of 2006 and the lateral collateral ligament in the same knee last spring. And it will mean the third major rehabilitation that Reynolds will face as he tries to return to the lineup.

"This is his third ACL injury," Oklahoma defensive tackle Gerald McCoy said. "How many times does this have to happen to one guy? I feel bad for Ryan, more than for us. We'll be OK, but I'm more worried about Ryan."

Stoops will be left with several playing options for the rest of the season. Sophomore Brandon Crow was inserted into the lineup for most of the game after Reynolds' injury. But a more likely scenario might be that talented redshirt freshman Austin Box will be moved into the position.

"Losing a leader like him and the rock like he is, it's going to be tough for you," Oklahoma linebacker Travis Lewis said. "It gave another player a chance to make plays. We aren't making excuses, but it's tough losing a player like him."
 
tee*dub said:
Not a huge difference but yes on a neutral field Mizzu is better IMO. Texas guys won't agree but Daniels is by far the better QB mostly because of his experience and because he has superior down field threats. Maclin changes field position on nearly every special teams play as well..

Mostly though BC I like the situation.. Can't be a better spot for Mizzu or a worse spot for Texas.. The fact that Mizzu dropped in the polls so much also helps.. Catching a TD.. yep
Click to expand...

Oh I agree with the situation and likely a play for me as well, but I think Texas is the better team. Just wanted to hear your thoughts... now go back to the champagne room.
 
Just waiting KU to become available at 20 for me. Shouldn't be too much longer.

Already on Michigan, and Mizzou +7. Hopefully a 7 will pop up for you out there soon, because Mizzou will be a Dr. Bob play, and kill the line.
 
MISSOURI
ILLINOIS-------226-81 rushing, 323-451 passing, 2-2 TO’s
NEVADA-------132-181 rushing, 519-180 passing, 1-0 TO’s
BUFFALO------151-49 rushing 439-237 passing, 2-3 TO’s
NEBRASKA---201-79 rushing, 261-290 passing, 2-0 TO’s
OKIE ST--------64-187 rushing, 390-215 passing, 3-3 TO’s

TEXAS
FAU-------------232-32 rushing, 271-255 passing, 2-0 TO’s
UTEP----------122-145 rushing, 282-267 passing, 1-1 TO’s
RICE-----------259-17 rushing, 341-301 passing, 0-2 TO’s
ARK------------208-11 rushing, 213-180 passing, 2-1 TO’s
COL------------169-41 rushing, 262-217 passing, 2-2 TO’s
OKL-----------161-48 rushing, 277-387 passing, 0-2 TO’s

Rush offense, indiscernible, maybe edge Texas. Alot of cupcakes, but in Texas big game vs. OU they got 161 while Mizzou got 226 on Illini but only had 64 on Okie State. Defensively against the run, big advantage Texas. The difference in the Okie State - Mizzou game is that Okie State won the rushing battle 187-64. Mizzou had really dominated the rushing battles in their previous games. Pass edge to Mizzou, but Texas will be able to throw it around on this defense as well. The games Mizzou lost last year, both to Oklahoma, the run was shut down. OU won the rushing battle 118-57 and 166-98. No other games was Mizzou beaten like that in the rushing capacity last season. The Mizzou passing game gets all the pub but I think it’s clear the way to beat them is stopping the run. But 7 points with a very very good Mizzou squad that will never be out of it is not something I want to lay.
-----I’m really thinking the team with the best chance of knocking off Texas in this tough stretch is Texas Tech as Okie State can’t breath without the run. A dominant defensive line, IMO the most vital unit of a football team.
 
Love baylor, mizzou, ole miss. What about middle tenny st getting over 2 touchdowns? I know they lost to Fla Int but they've played a tougher schedule than the Ville and from what i have watched the Ville is absolute garbage imo. Lucky and undisciplined. I think MTSU hangs till the end and has a chance to win it. They don't give up, I know that much. (reference my FAU ML loss on the last second hail mary :( )
 
RambleOn said:
Love baylor, mizzou, ole miss. What about middle tenny st getting over 2 touchdowns? I know they lost to Fla Int but they've played a tougher schedule than the Ville and from what i have watched the Ville is absolute garbage imo. Lucky and undisciplined. I think MTSU hangs till the end and has a chance to win it. They don't give up, I know that much. (reference my FAU ML loss on the last second hail mary :( )
Click to expand...
:shake:
 
I'm in at 20 on KU.

And from what I understand, the Dr religiously subscribes to several situations, and consistently hammers them pretty hard.

I think a few weeks ago when you, I, VK, and everyone under the sun was on Iowa, that play fell into that system.

Its a road dog bounce back system.

He hammers the shit out of them.
 
hoopsstar22 said:
I'm in at 20 on KU.

And from what I understand, the Dr religiously subscribes to several situations, and consistently hammers them pretty hard.

I think a few weeks ago when you, I, VK, and everyone under the sun was on Iowa, that play fell into that system.

Its a road dog bounce back system.

He hammers the shit out of them.
Click to expand...

Interesting.. Don't follow him that closely to be honest. Thanks:shake:

KU at 20 is a very nice play IMO:cheers:
 
RambleOn said:
I think MTSU hangs till the end and has a chance to win it. They don't give up, I know that much. (reference my FAU ML loss on the last second hail mary :( )
Click to expand...

Having a tough time with this one to be honest.. Give me something.. Backed them v. FIU and wanted off it very early.. the ville is scoring.
As you know I am a dog lover esp the 2 TD variety but this one just doesn't feel right for some reason..
 
tee*dub said:
Having a tough time with this one to be honest.. Give me something.. Backed them v. FIU and wanted off it very early.. the ville is scoring.
As you know I am a dog lover esp the 2 TD variety but this one just doesn't feel right for some reason..
Click to expand...

Teedub the Ville will score but so will MTSU.Louisville can't stop shit defensively.MTSU loves them little frickin screens and Louisville seems to struggle with a spread offense. No reason MTSU can't keep it close.You know all the squares will see LOUISVILLE just a 2 TD fave over little mtsu. Anyway I got this line at -9.I know for a fact it will move up over 14 and possibly to 15 before Saturday.Just a hunch.I have my eyeball on MTSU as a live dog. :cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
Think LVSC opened KU up at +14,, was +18 a couple days ago and now I see +20 all over the place..

Two reasons BAR and I'll add color later as this will almost definately be a play now.

1) KU scores 30 on everyone and Okie will be no different IMO. Sometimes they score it early (at USF) and sometimes they do it late (at Iowa State) but you can count on 4 TD's minimum from this offense.
2) because KU controls the ball so much, Okie is not going to drop half a hundred on 'em, I just don't see it. Okie blows out teams with vastly inferior offensive talent because they can three and out you to death, wear out the opponents defense and then really roll late..

I can see a KU straight up victory to be honest but I am very comfortable with nearly three TDs of wiggle room. And if Okie goes up big early, I am also quite comfortable a backdoor cover will be in the picture to the very end..

I need to check to make sure I am not missing an injury but this one will be locked in soon.. Anyone think it jumps to 21? I don't think so but probly no harm in waiting a bit.

Michigan getting 24 points is also insane BAR.. Question is can Michigan score enough and especially late in a 35-10 type game.. This is why I like KU so much more is I have no question they will score.. Michigan, I like but worry about them getting to 20..

Right now KU is much closer to a play than Michigan but they both might make the final list at different unit amounts.

KU is possible top unit material..
Click to expand...

Beautiful. And as I was discussing this game off-site with a few others the LB hit for OU is huge. We saw it in the 2nd half big-time on Saturday. I will be adding this as well, just hoping it floats a bit higher to a 21 or 21.5...
 
Tee..great thread as usual..I will be making a play on KU as well..but like BAR, waiting for it to get higher...they have the offense to keep up...kind of reminds me of Mizzou/okie state last week. You can never discount a good spread team out getting points.
 
Tee, I got 19.5 - should have waited, but oh well.

Do you see a big difference with that hook; I know 20 is not a key number, but I was just curious in your capping if you see a material difference or not.

Just curious.

When you getting to Vegas?

I am so ready to be there. Getting most of my plays in before I get there and get foolishly drunk.

Kill em again this weekend man.
 
Streakin said:
Tee, I got 19.5 - should have waited, but oh well.

Do you see a big difference with that hook; I know 20 is not a key number, but I was just curious in your capping if you see a material difference or not.

Just curious.

When you getting to Vegas?

I am so ready to be there. Getting most of my plays in before I get there and get foolishly drunk.

Kill em again this weekend man.
Click to expand...

20 is a pretty key number actually as that is a 2 TD 2 FG number but the higher you go up in spread the less key any number becomes.. A diminishing returns thing.. Read an article on it once but common sense suggests 10 is a key number but double 10 though still a key number is less so... if that makes sense..

Think you are fine-- put it this way I would not be making this near a top unit bet if I thought it were going to be anywhere near the number..

Getting out there late thursday going to put some plays in on line to make sure Dr Bob doesn't fuck me but a majority of my plays will be out there.. If 21 pops in Vegas I may go dark out there.. Trying to keep the disciplined approach that has served me well, but like all, I am still a sickened degenerate at heart and am tempted to put 20 units on this biatch.
 
If 21 pops in Vegas I may go dark out there.. Trying to keep the disciplined approach that has served me well, but like all, I am still a sickened degenerate at heart and am tempted to put 20 units on this biatch.
Click to expand...

Why is KU not top unit yet?
 
Blue_Chip said:
Why is KU not top unit yet?
Click to expand...

It will be just not sure the number of the last 2 units.. Got 4 units at my regular on-line place but won't be in Vegas until late Thursday p.m. and want to put the other 2 units out there (or more) and won't know the number until I get there.. I have a personal rule that I try not to bet on-line when I am out there as it gets complicated to do both.. Prefer to bet pure cash (pennies)out there but I am going to put a few in now so I don't get screwed by Bob tommorow.. Also sometimes I have to use on-line out there because most places I am at won't let you buy off key numbers.. As I have said Vegas is a fun place to bet but alot the rules are not in the bettors favor..

Long story..
 
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