Carolinablue Week 10 Plays and Discussion

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Just got back from Charlotte and have to say that it is a pretty incredible city to say the least. For those interested, I nailed the interview and got offered the job, so more than likely we will be moving down there in early January after my wife has our first child in December.

Charlotte has one of the biggest UNC Alumni Groups in the country with 14,000 active members, so needless to say I am excited at the opportunity to make my way back to North Carolina in a few short months.Didn't mean to bore you guys with that stuff, but figured some of you were interested in how things went.


YEAR TO DATE CONFIRMED POSTED RECORD 39-27 59.1%
 
Clemson -16

I know Duke has been feisty this year, leading to a number of late covers, but the one dimensional aspect of this team is starting to wear on them as we get deeper and deeper into the season. They have no rushing game whatsoever, as they are #118 out of 119 teams in 1-A, and their passing attack is only 58th in the country, even though they pretty much have a one tiered offensive attack each game. Their defense has actually been solid in the red zone, holding teams to a 76% conversion rate inside the 20, but Duke's 105th scoring offense has not been able to put enough points on the board to keep them close vs the big boys, as Duke is converting less than 1 out of every 3 3rd down attempts, and they also have only connected on 20% of their FG attempts this year.

Clemson on the other hand, is a team that is really beginning to click on all cylinders behind a balanced mixture of running and passing on the offensive side of the ball. Clemson piled up 250 yards rushing against the Terps last weekend, and I expect more of the same this week vs the Blue Devils. The thing with the Tigers though is that they have a strong enough passing game to keep defenses from loading up in the box, so the 108th passing defense of the Blue Devils are gonna be in for a long day as they should get torched for a number of big plays as Duke tries to pack it in up front to stop the Tigers' rushing attack.

When laying points, I always like to look at red zone performance, and Clemson's is a stellar 91%, so I look for them to score early and often in this one, with more 6's going up on the board than 3's. The other important point to consider in this one is Clemson is a Top 20 team in turnover margin, so look for a couple of INTs as the Tigers drop 8 guys back to dare the Devils to try and run the ball.

This is a great matchup for Clemson that couldn't have come at a worse time for Duke, as I don't expect the Tigers to take Duke lightly, because you know they have been reminded all week of the fact that Duke's last ACC win came at home vs the Tigers back in 2004. Clemson has a killer instinct right now and I expect them to keep laying it on even when they are up big in this one, just like they did vs CMU a few weeks back.
 
CB, glad to see you back. Kind of interested on your thoughts of UNC this weekend. As maryland and UNC are going in two opposite directions this season. UNC looks to improve on their record while the maryland coaching staff is quite pessimistic about there chances for the rest of the season.

GL
 
First of all Cb , congrats on landing the job. It's great to be going 'home' at this crucial and wonderful point in your life. One's firstborn is an unforgettable experience. I'm elated for you.
LMAO last week as those Missouri St scores kept mushrooming up and up.
No I didn't play them because I checked in when the number was 31 1/2 and I just didn't want to lay that much. But I did think of you last Saturday afternoon. My FCS bets were a very satisfactory 3-1.
Can't say the same for my majors slate - a big one- I had 3 games go OT and lost all 3. On to this week, and good luck. I have to take a look at Clemson, I guess.
Cheers
bull
 
LA TECH -2.5

I have to admit this was a tough one as my numbers favor La Tech, but I really had to hold my nose before hitting submit, since it is asking a lot for the Bulldogs to cover the spread here, when they haven't won consecutive games since November of 2005, and they finally got their first road conference win in 2 years by beating the hapless winless Utah State Aggies last week by only 10 points at that.

Admittedly, these two teams are fairly evenly matched, and Idaho does have the HFA, but let's be honest here, the Kibble Dome hasn't exactly been an intimidating place to play for opponents of the Vandals, as they are only 2-9 at home vs 1-A opponents over the last 3 years.

The biggest reason I am on the Bulldogs this weekend is because of their rushing attack, as I think the La Tech rushing game will win the battle vs the Idaho rush defense. Idaho's rush defense gave up over 150 to SJSU, almost 200 to Nevada and almost 300 on the ground to Fresno. La Tech's resurgent rushing attack gained almost 300 against Utah State, which I know isn't saying much, but keep in mind that Idaho's rush defense stats aren't that much better than those of the Aggies.

In addition to the running game, I also give the turnover edge to La Tech, as they are #33 in the nation in turnover margin, while Idaho is #80. When you have two teams so evenly matched, often times it comes down to who causes the turnover at the crucial point of the game, and throughout the season, La Tech has been the better of these two teams in making this happen, and I expect the same thing to occur on Saturday.

The last point in this one is that Idaho gets absolutely no pressure on the QB at all, as they are in the bottom 10 in terms of quarterback sacks, so that should help the Bulldogs put together some semblance of a passing game against the Vandals, although to be honest, neither team is very good there, regardless of who they put behind center.

This one is definitely not for the faint of heart, but it is hard to feel bad about fading a 1-8 team that has lost 7 straight, especially when you see how they failed to play the full 60 minutes vs Nevada last week, as from what I saw on gameplan, they basically gave up on the last play of the game when the Wolfpack got the garbage TD at the end.
 
Congrats on landing the job CB.

GL this week - Clemson definitely matches up well with Duke.

Hope to see you in the CBB forum for discussions/plays as the season gets underway soon.
 
carolinablue said:
LA TECH -2.5

I have to admit this was a tough one as my numbers favor La Tech, but I really had to hold my nose before hitting submit, since it is asking a lot for the Bulldogs to cover the spread here, when they haven't won consecutive games since November of 2005, and they finally got their first road conference win in 2 years by beating the hapless winless Utah State Aggies last week by only 10 points at that.
Click to expand...

If it is any comfort, La Tech dominated the game and the final margin could have been worse. Utah St. didn't do much on offense, and about a third of their total yards came on a 82 yard TD pass where LT blew the coverage. Utah St's other two TDs came late in the game when the game was firmly in hand.

LT also missed a FG and blew an opportunity inside the 5, turning it over on downs.
 
frankiegotti said:
CB, glad to see you back. Kind of interested on your thoughts of UNC this weekend. As maryland and UNC are going in two opposite directions this season. UNC looks to improve on their record while the maryland coaching staff is quite pessimistic about there chances for the rest of the season.

GL
Click to expand...

It's interesting that everyone and their brother seems to be on my Heels this week, and I have to say that I can see why when you look at how decimated the troops on the Terps' offensive side of the ball is these days. I believe they are getting 2 or 3 guys back this week, but who knows how effective they will be, since they probably won't be 100%. If the Heels' defense is gonna have that breakout game that many are anticipating, it will probably happen this week, since the Maryland OL is a mess right now. I also think that if there is ever a week where the Heels are gonna get 100 yards rushing, it will be this week as well, as the Terps were bullied last week on the ground vs the Tigers.

The only reason I am not on this one is because Maryland for whatever reason seems to always have our number. I don't know the actual numbers, but I think they have covered something like 7 or 8 in a row against us, with at least 5 or 6 of those being wins in the series.

I actually think we break that trend this weekend, but it will be a no play for me as Maryland needs this win to stay in contention for bowl eligibility, and I hate playing against desperate teams that still have something to play for. Again though, I think the Heels are a solid play nonetheless, although they won't be on my card. (Boy, do I sound like Dr Bob playing both sides of the fence or what haha)

Hope that helps at least a little...
 
Dmoney416 said:
If it is any comfort, La Tech dominated the game and the final margin could have been worse. Utah St. didn't do much on offense, and about a third of their total yards came on a 82 yard TD pass where LT blew the coverage. Utah St's other two TDs came late in the game when the game was firmly in hand.

LT also missed a FG and blew an opportunity inside the 5, turning it over on downs.
Click to expand...


Thanks for the perspective Dmoney, greatly appreciated. I try to watch as many degenerate specials on gameplan as I can, so that I can have a better than average read on these under the radar games, but I honestly didn't catch a minute of that one as I think I was watching the Sunbelt game at that time.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Congrats on landing the job CB.

GL this week - Clemson definitely matches up well with Duke.

Hope to see you in the CBB forum for discussions/plays as the season gets underway soon.
Click to expand...


Definitely looking forward to cbb season. As part of the deal this week, I got them to throw in 2 tickets to the NCAA tourney games in Charlotte this year, plus 2 tickets for 2 UNC home basketball games of my choice (excluding Duke...hey I am a good salesman, but not that good haha). I will probably have to focus on the weekend games though since it would be hard to swing a weeknight trip to Chapel Hill and back.

Haven't even checked out the schedule yet to be honest, so gonna do that right now to see what games I want to pick. The tough thing is all the games prior to Feb are pretty much out since we will be moving in Jan, so gonna focus on the weekend ACC games in mid Jan through Feb. to see what is on the schedule.
 
Congrats on your new job, cb. You must be working for one of those banks down there.

I've been waiting all week for you to post your plays because I had a feeling you'd be on Clemson. Boy was I glad to see that it's your first listed play this week. Clemson is relatively large bet for me this week and I agree with your writeup 100% and I'm very pleased that one of the best fave players is on my side. I am a little bit worried that Jacoby Ford is out but I think there's still far enough speed between Davis and Spiller to put 40+ on Duke, and I feel there's a very good chance Clemson's defense will hold Duke under 24. Good luck to you this week and congrats again on the job.
 
YourMomIsLovely said:
Congrats on your new job, cb. You must be working for one of those banks down there.

I've been waiting all week for you to post your plays because I had a feeling you'd be on Clemson. Boy was I glad to see that it's your first listed play this week. Clemson is relatively large bet for me this week and I agree with your writeup 100% and I'm very pleased that one of the best fave players is on my side. I am a little bit worried that Jacoby Ford is out but I think there's still far enough speed between Davis and Spiller to put 40+ on Duke, and I feel there's a very good chance Clemson's defense will hold Duke under 24. Good luck to you this week and congrats again on the job.
Click to expand...


Actually no, not working for one of the banks, but good guess, considering that they pretty much rule things down in Charlotte. Best of luck this weekend and thanks for taking the time to post the kind words!
 
CB congrats first off.

Charlotte is a great city, always said while I was at USC if I ever moved to the Carolinas it would be to Charlotte.

Regarding LaTech. I like this game a lot as well. I had to pinch myself to make sure I was really bout to lay road chalk with them 2 weeks in a row but like you said the selling point for me is LaTech's ability to rush the ball, Idaho's inability to stop it, LaTech ability to stop the rush, and Idaho's ability to do nothing else on offense. HFA should be minimal here. LaTech has looked far more impressive in conference as well. Have to say I like this play a lot.


GL
 
I nailed the interview and got offered the job, so more than likely we will be moving down there in early January after my wife has our first child in December.

I love it. Congrats.

And, as always, good luck this week.
 
:cheers:

Congratulations, CB, I just started a new job myself, although I am not moving far from home or back home like your case.

As for NCAAF this week, I expect a small card for myself as nothing stands out to me.
 
Good luck this week CB and congrats on the offer bro.:cheers: La Tech was a strong lean for me after running down the card but have decided to play others to this point. After reading your write up on clemson I actually looked at the game and your right on. Went ahead and added a medium play for myself.

<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
><st1:State><
<st1:place>Idaho</st1:place></st1:State> off loss at <st1:State><st1:place>Nevada</st1:place></st1:State> to go to 0-8 and la tech road win at <st1:State><st1:place>utah</st1:place></st1:State> state<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
<st1:State><st1:place>Idaho</st1:place></st1:State> offense 89<o:p></o:p>
La defense 66<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
<st1:State><st1:place>Idaho</st1:place></st1:State> rushing 56<o:p></o:p>
La rushing d 24<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
<st1:State><st1:place>Idaho</st1:place></st1:State> passing 94<o:p></o:p>
La passing D 105<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
La offense 84<o:p></o:p>
<st1:State><st1:place>Idaho</st1:place></st1:State> defense 84<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
La rushing 41<o:p></o:p>
<st1:State><st1:place>Idaho</st1:place></st1:State> rushing d 64<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
La passing 93<o:p></o:p>
<st1:State><st1:place>Idaho</st1:place></st1:State> passing d 98<o:p></o:p>
<st1:State><st1:place>Idaho</st1:place></st1:State> 111<SUP>th</SUP> in turnovers. La tech 43<SUP>rd</SUP> in takeaways and 9<SUP>th</SUP> in int’s.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
La Tech49<o:p></o:p>
<st1:State><st1:place>Idaho</st1:place></st1:State> 57<o:p></o:p>
 
WOW thanks for bringing the clemson play to my attention cant believe I missed that one!!!!!

Sorry to bug you man but any thoughts on the game tonight as well? Leaning on VT and the over. :cheers:
 
sportfanatic71 said:
WOW thanks for bringing the clemson play to my attention cant believe I missed that one!!!!!

Sorry to bug you man but any thoughts on the game tonight as well? Leaning on VT and the over. :cheers:
Click to expand...

To be completely honest, I haven't looked at it much as I decided to focus only on the weekend games since I had the short week to do my analysis.
 
Only 2 plays today but I am ok with that as I don't believe in forcing something that isn't there. I personally don't think today's card has much value, so I will stay locked in on my 2 plays and make sure I stay focused regardless of what happens early as the last thing I wanna do is fall into the trap of adding plays late. Best of luck to everyone on the early games. Again, hoops has some great discussion going for those of you who are interested in the 1-AA card, so be sure and check his thread out if interested.
 
Congrats CB on your job and soon to be family!! I was born and raised in Raliegh and trying to get back to NC myself. Im a WOLFPACKER but I always try to tailgate you, great picks and writeups.
 
congrats cb....charlotte def has a lot of heels fans. Will be good for you to get back and hang out with your brethren and watch some acc b-ball.

Only 3 or so hours away from chapel hill too so you could even go to a game.

Atlanta is a little far right now but i make 3 or 4 home games. Am working on the fiancee to see if she wants to move back to raleigh
 
CLEMSON = WINNER

Glad I was able to help out the board with the Clemson pick as it sounds like many jumped on board and got to start off the day with an easy winner. It's funny sometimes how people will talk themselves off of a pick because they think its a "trap" or some sort of "conspiracy" by Vegas or my favorite "the sucker bet of the day". This was one of the easiest plays on the board today so it was really amazing to read at other sites how that meant Duke was actually the play everyone was jumping on. Guess that's why I like it here at CTG so much. Anyway, getting ready to watch my Heels play at 3:45pm, so will be back on later to chime in on a few things.

Best of luck the rest of the way guys. And oh yeah, go La Tech at 5pm!
 
RJ Esq said:
Hey, CB, any thoughts on the MTSU-FAU tilt?
Click to expand...


Toss up in my opinion as this is a huge game for both teams. I don't see a distinct advantage for either side, so this is definitely a no play for me. The only team I was considering this week was Troy (I know easy for me to say that now, but you guys know my track record), but because I am not a dog player, I decided to lay off, because I just have a much better feel for favs, especially road favs, so I didn't wanna press my luck with the Trojans even though they have cashed for me multiple times this year.

Actually watching the Arkie State vs FIU game right now as I wait for my Heels to kickoff. I know, I am a true degenerate....and proud of it haha!
 
CLEMSON = WINNER +1.0 units
LA TECH = WINNER +1.0 units
1-AA PLAYS NOT POSTED IN HERE = -0.46 units

2-0 on the day but did lose -0.46 units on my 1-AA plays so actually only netted +1.54 instead of +2.00 units. Even though I didn't post them in here, I did play em, and I believe in always capturing the units on all plays I actually hit that submit button on, so that is why I am taking out the -0.46 units.

Just gonna sit back and watch the late games as it looks like we have a number of great finishes coming up.

Year to Date Record 41-27 60.3% +9.956 units

Now 18-9 on road favs this season, and actually 13-3 on road favs of 3.5 or more, so of course you know what I will be focused against the rest of the way.

Gonna take a withdrawal from the Greek tomorrow so that I can ensure myself a winning season this year. After the withdrawal, I will only be playing with extra profit at that point, so even if I lose from Week 11 on out, I will still end up with a profitable year.

With the crazy way this season as gone, I just want to bank my profit while I can, as I have hit my 2x starting bankroll goal that I set for myself at the start of the season, so that means its time to take that profit out and bank it with the money I already withdrew from 5dimes a week or two ago.
 
Hey Carolinablue,

Just want to say thanks for those winners today....Much appreciated. My first post but been following you for awhile.....Keep up the good work
 
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