Bowls? Why not?

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Alright. Many times in the past I've had great seasons only to follow it up with a lackluster bowl year, so maybe this year will be the opposite. I suspect I'll have time this year , so what I might do is in addition to writing up whatever plays I'm making, I'll just jot down my thoughts on why I'm not playing the games I'm holding off on. It occupies the mind if nothing else.

Games I've played:

Nevada +2.5 v Tulane: Win
Hawaii +10 v Houston: Win
Marshall +5 v Buffalo: Loss
Georgia State -3.5 v Western Kentucky: Win
UTSA +14 v Louisiana Lafayette: Win
Liberty +7.5 v Coastal Carolina: Win
Oklahoma State -2 v Miami: Win
Colorado +8.5 v Texas: Loss
Florida +7 v Oklahoma: Loss
Tulsa -2.5 v Mississippi State: ( Tulsa +1.5 available 12/31 AM, so I grabbed it): Loss
San Jose State -9.5 v Ball State: Loss
Clemson -7 v Ohio State: Loss
Indiana -8 v Ole Miss: Loss
Texas A&M -8.5 v North Carolina: Win (Somehow)




1. Nevada +2.5 v Tulane: I put this in last night at 2.5 but I see that the line has dipped to 2 in a lot of spots. This is a little risky because Tulane's schedule has been significantly tougher than Nevada's. Although I've always liked the Mountain West and it's predecessor the WAC, there are some dregs in that conference(Utah State, UNLV, New Mexico) that drags down Nevada's strength of schedule, and might inflate their stats a bit., and this is borne out in advanced metrics such as FEI, F+, etc. Having said that, I still see some major matchup issues for Tulane in this game. Tulane's major strength is running the ball, and although they had success, a lot of it came against teams like East Carolina, Navy, Southern Miss and Temple, and not the better defenses they faced. Even UCF, who nobody would accuse of having a stout run defense, held them to 3.3 yards per carry. If you look at their overall schedule, the 4 best teams on their slate(Houston, SMU, UCF, Tulsa) outgained them by an average of 257 yards per game. 3 of those 4 have good passing attacks, and the one who doesn't, Tulsa, is still giving me nightmares from their third string QB torching the Green Wave for 266 passing yards in 16 minutes to pull off a miracle cover and over. By all indications, Carson Strong and the Wolf Pack have a good passing attack, so they should be able to have success against this 110th ranked Tulane pass defense. Nevada has 2 great receivers in Romeo Doubs and Cole Turner and Carson Strong was the MWC player of the year, so I think that despite the MWC being down, we can conclude that this is a formidable passing attack. As for Nevada's chances to stop Tulane's run, they ranked 33rd in yards per carry against, and were successful against a traditionally solid San Diego State rush attack, so I think they can be competitive in that regard. Ultimately, Nevada fits the profile of the kind of team that Tulane has struggled to keep pace with this year. Unless the Green Wave find a competent pass defense, I like Nevada's chances in this one. They were embarrassed by Ohio on this field last year, so I think they'll bring a good effort.
 
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BYU VS UCF: Not gonna play this one, though I leaned BYU at -6. If it gets lower than that, I might play it, but probably not. Basically, these two offenses are pretty equal, but BYU figures to have a much better chance of stopping UCF's offense than vice versa. UCF ranks 100th against the pass, while BYU and Zack Wilson have thrown the ball pretty much at will all year. Having said that, BYU's defense ranks 10th overall in yards per play and 19th in yards per pass attempt, but they obviously have played some weak offenses, and caught a major break when Boise was limited to their incompetent 3rd QB in what would have been a measuring stick game for their defense. I just don't want to find myself in a position where BYU is constantly giving up yards because they have a cushion and then find themselves incapable of covering due to game situations, even though I'm pretty sure they'll be able to score at will. This one's a pass for me.
 
BOL Brass - like your take on Nevada. Note also CF #1 WR Marlon Williams opted out 71 catches 1039y 10 TDs. BYU has played a soft schedule and I am wondering if their pass defense can hold up against a solid passing team like UCF.
 
Timh said:
BOL Brass - like your take on Nevada. Note also CF #1 WR Marlon Williams opted out 71 catches 1039y 10 TDs. BYU has played a soft schedule and I am wondering if their pass defense can hold up against a solid passing team like UCF.
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Yeah Timmy, the more I look at this game I am not considering laying with BYU. The ability to take significant points with an offense like UCF (even with the opt out) might be too enticing. It almost seems like BYU has to score every possession to cover, where even slight slip ups(a couple bad drives or too many FGs) kill their chances of clearing 7.
 
La Tech vs Ga Southern: On paper this one looks like a bit of a mismatch in Ga Southern's favor, but now that the line has gotten all the way to 6.5, I can't justify laying that much. On a per play basis, La Tech looks absolutely terrible this year. I mentioned this when I backed them a couple weeks ago vs TCU (naturally, they got blown out), but they are a team that overperforms their per play numbers. You actually have to take a close look at the play by plays in their box scores to figure out how they stay in games, but if you look close you see a couple reasons why. They have benefitted WAY more than the average team on opponents committing personal fouls. Actually, they are 5th in the country in "forcing" penalties on opponents. In addition, they have converted 87.5% of their 4th downs this year, and they go for them a lot. I counted 14 of 16 in just the past few games. La Tech is 125th in the country in yards per play, but they basically just grind out drives. Like I mentioned, if you line these teams up against each other on paper, Ga Southern has a major edge everywhere...they'll run on LaTech, they'll move the ball on them through the air when they pass and they'll stop the run and limit the pass. But if you look at the final scores of Ga Southern's games in which against similar competition to LT, you'll see wins of 7 or less. Also, Skip Holtz is one of the top ATS coaches in bowls (7-3). If this one was down around the 4-4.5 range I would probably lay it, but 6.5 is too high for me.
 
Memphis v FAU: No play on this one. If I went strictly by the matchups on paper in this game, FAU would be a pretty easy play. Defensively, they've been good all year, ranking 9th in the country in yards per pass play against and 15th in overall yards per play. Also, since stud WR Damontre Coxie opted out in October, Memphis just hasn't been the same on offense, and they can't run the ball to save their lives. In the past 5 games against FBS opponents, they've averaged 1.96 yards per carry, so chances are they won't be able to run it here. Their entire offense has been asleep recently, most alarmingly in their game against Navy 3 weeks ago in which they squeaked out a 10-7 win and couldn't move the ball on the worst defense Navy has had in a decade. Having said all that, now that the line has come down to 8, I can't in good conscience take the worst number with FAU. For them to cover here, you need Memphis to be disinterested and FAU to be sky high, and the Owls are coming off 2 terrible performances, including getting pretty much run off the field by Southern Miss in their last game. I've liked Willie Taggart in the past, but his recent history doesn't spark much hope of any ability to get a struggling team back on track. Although their pass defense has been good, the slate of teams they've played this year are among the weakest in the country. Based on FEI offensive efficiency, they faced the 128th, 125th, 113th, 101st offenses, and of the remaining squads, Marshall was the best at 68th. The only teams with even a semblance of a passing attack, (Charlotte and Southern Miss) averaged over 10 yards per attempt on them. Brady White, even with his recent struggles, will be by a country mile the best QB they've faced, so unless they get tons of pressure on him(which they might), they'll be vulnerable in my opinion, and their offense, which is among the worst in FBS, is not equipped to score. They have no passing game, and the coaches are so unenthused with their options at QB that they haven't even named a starter yet. Like I said, by the numbers, I'd like the dog, but the lack of value in the number plus what might be some misleading defensive numbers for FAU keep me off this one.
 
2. Christmas Even New Mexico Bowl: Hawaii +10 v Houston: I'm trying to figure out if there exists any evidence that would lead a rational person to lay double digits in this spot with Houston. I guess you could be skeptical of Hawaii stepping away from the island, but my goodness, who would want to lay double digits with either Dana Holgorsen or Houston as a program? Holgorsen is 1-6 ATS in bowls, not exactly a master motivator, and Houston has been on a bad run in recent years prior to his arrival. (2-4, including what might be the most embarrassing bowl performance in history against Army a couple years ago, which a lot of these current Houston players were on the field for.) Houston is a mediocre 3-4 team. Hawaii is a mediocre 4-4 team. So far, the American has laid an egg in the two bowls they've completed, one against Nevada, who Hawaii has beaten. The Rainbows also hung tough with San Jose State and Boise, so even though they don't look great statistically, they've been competitive. Clayton Tune is a decent QB for the Cougars, but he has a tendency to turn it over, and the Cougs can't really run the ball, which is too bad because that's Hawaii's weakness. On the flip side, Hawaii does a nice job against the pass, which is not ideal for Houston from a matchup standpoint. Hawaii can move the ball with Qb Chevan Cordeiro, who has some versatility about him, able to both run and throw effectively. Todd Graham is no stranger to Houston, having faced them throughout his career at Tulsa and Rice, and as a first year coach, he has some juice in getting these kids motivated for the future. I'll be really surprised if Holgorsen gets his team motivated and executing at the level it will take to cover a sizable number here. This Houston offense is not really all that explosive, and even the explosive Houston offenses of the past struggled in these spots.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. Christmas Even New Mexico Bowl: Hawaii +10 v Houston: I'm trying to figure out if there exists any evidence that would lead a rational person to lay double digits in this spot with Houston. I guess you could be skeptical of Hawaii stepping away from the island, but my goodness, who would want to lay double digits with either Dana Holgorsen or Houston as a program? Holgorsen is 1-6 ATS in bowls, not exactly a master motivator, and Houston has been on a bad run in recent years prior to his arrival. (2-4, including what might be the most embarrassing bowl performance in history against Army a couple years ago, which a lot of these current Houston players were on the field for.) Houston is a mediocre 3-4 team. Hawaii is a mediocre 4-4 team. So far, the American has laid an egg in the two bowls they've completed, one against Nevada, who Hawaii has beaten. The Rainbows also hung tough with San Jose State and Boise, so even though they don't look great statistically, they've been competitive. Clayton Tune is a decent QB for the Cougars, but he has a tendency to turn it over, and the Cougs can't really run the ball, which is too bad because that's Hawaii's weakness. On the flip side, Hawaii does a nice job against the pass, which is not ideal for Houston from a matchup standpoint. Hawaii can move the ball with Qb Chevan Cordeiro, who has some versatility about him, able to both run and throw effectively. Todd Graham is no stranger to Houston, having faced them throughout his career at Tulsa and Rice, and as a first year coach, he has some juice in getting these kids motivated for the future. I'll be really surprised if Holgorsen gets his team motivated and executing at the level it will take to cover a sizable number here. This Houston offense is not really all that explosive, and even the explosive Houston offenses of the past struggled in these spots.
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Pretty sure they're also missing 25% of their team
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. Christmas Even New Mexico Bowl: Hawaii +10 v Houston: I'm trying to figure out if there exists any evidence that would lead a rational person to lay double digits in this spot with Houston. I guess you could be skeptical of Hawaii stepping away from the island, but my goodness, who would want to lay double digits with either Dana Holgorsen or Houston as a program? Holgorsen is 1-6 ATS in bowls, not exactly a master motivator, and Houston has been on a bad run in recent years prior to his arrival. (2-4, including what might be the most embarrassing bowl performance in history against Army a couple years ago, which a lot of these current Houston players were on the field for.) Houston is a mediocre 3-4 team. Hawaii is a mediocre 4-4 team. So far, the American has laid an egg in the two bowls they've completed, one against Nevada, who Hawaii has beaten. The Rainbows also hung tough with San Jose State and Boise, so even though they don't look great statistically, they've been competitive. Clayton Tune is a decent QB for the Cougars, but he has a tendency to turn it over, and the Cougs can't really run the ball, which is too bad because that's Hawaii's weakness. On the flip side, Hawaii does a nice job against the pass, which is not ideal for Houston from a matchup standpoint. Hawaii can move the ball with Qb Chevan Cordeiro, who has some versatility about him, able to both run and throw effectively. Todd Graham is no stranger to Houston, having faced them throughout his career at Tulsa and Rice, and as a first year coach, he has some juice in getting these kids motivated for the future. I'll be really surprised if Holgorsen gets his team motivated and executing at the level it will take to cover a sizable number here. This Houston offense is not really all that explosive, and even the explosive Houston offenses of the past struggled in these spots.
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Good stuff. The Holgersen only ATS win in bowls was his first one back in 2011. All downhill from there. Got a second win straight up by 1 laying 2 vs ASU in 2015. So 2-5 SU.

Houston can be great or they can be fairly bad...sometimes both in the same game.

I'll add that Houston's only two recognized All-AAC players on D opted out (LB Stuard and DE/LB Turner). Not sure if anyone among the other newly reported list of players is anyone of note.

I think Houston is fairly weak overall.

My read from the Hawaii side is that they are actually excited to go bowling somewhere else other than their own stadium for a change. Todd Graham is from Texas as well.

I think good chance Hawaii wins straight up and I will be on the ML.

Hawaii O not the same and not as dangerous as people less familiar with them might think. They are willing to have more balance and they have unleashed Cordiero's running this year as you state.

Cordiero is going to need to play really well and success on 1st down will be critical because Hawaii fans seem to think that their O is predictable and easy to stop on 3rd and long.
 
Just saw that Marquez Stevenson also opted out. He's #3 in receptions this year with 20 just because he has only played in 5 games. Think he was banged up. Their #1 receiver has 27, so not too far behind. He has more TDs (4) than the top two combined though (3) and in 2018 and 2017 he was by far and away their best WR. He is also a fantastic KO returnman. Big loss for Houston not to have him.
 
Camelia Bowl Christmas Day: 3. Marshall +5 v Buffalo: This one hit 5 earlier today so I took it. It might be down to 4.5 pretty much everywhere now but that's not a significant spot to worry about the 1/2 point. Pretty much everyone I've seen is on Buffalo in this game, and although I understand that Marshall's top 3 guys are opting out, I still think Marshall looks like the logical side here. One of the opt outs, Brenden Knox, only averaged 4.8 yards per carry, so I don't think it's out of the questions that he's replaceable. Marshall 3 weeks ago was undefeated, having blown out everyone on their weak Conf USA schedule until the wheels completely fell off. Herd QB Grant Wells was skipping along with a 18/3 TD/INT ratio until he evidently forgot how to throw a forward pass, tossing 6 INTs in his last 2 games. Although 2 games now make a bit of a trend, this team was miles better than that throughout the first 5 games, and their defense has been among the best performing stop units in the country all year. People love Buffalo's offense(and why not, it's ranked #1 in the country in yards per play), but they did their damage against the 127th, 115th, 113th, 107th, 86th and 84th ranked defenses in the country. They will not have seen a defense even in the same stratosphere as Marshall, and Marshall's specialty is stopping the run. Defensively, Buffalo looks good on paper as well, but again, Akron, Bowling Green, NIU and Miami of Ohio are very weak on both sides of the ball. The two decent offenses they played, Kent and Ball State combined for 1017 yards against them. Also, I feel as though Marshall is a higher level of program than almost all of the MAC programs. Remember, Marshall pretty much got kicked out of the MAC after their 1997-2004 stint in the league after a 39-6 conference run. Also, Doc Holliday is 7-1 ATS in bowls at Marshall, with the only loss coming last year when the Herd was mismatched against UCF. Ultimately, even with the opt outs, I see these squads are very even, so I'll take the 5 points with the program who has a history of good bowl performances.
 
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Saturday: Lending Tree Bowl: 4. Georgia State -3.5 v Western Kentucky: If you throw out the complete abomination which was Georgia State's game against Coastal, (a game in which they ran only 40 plays somehow), they had a really consistent and competent season. Offensively, they topped 500 yards of offense 3 times in Sun Belt play, beat a very solid Georgia Southern team and played Louisiana and Appy State to a standstill, falling by a score to both. ow they line up against a WKU squad that plays pretty good defense, but cannot throw the ball to save their lives and finished 116th in overall yards per play on offense as well as 115th on 3rd down. Ultimately in this case, I think we have a solid Sun Belt team(which is saying something this year) against a middling C-USA team who can't score. Georgia State looks to me to be clearly the better team, as they don't rank worse than 66th in any meaningful category . I'll lay 3.5 under the assumption that the Panther offense can punch in a few scores and their defense continues the trend of WKU failing to stay on the field with any sustained drives.
 
Saturday First Responders Bowl:5. UTSA +14 v Louisiana: Everyone knows that the Ragin Cajuns had a great year and lost out on a rematch with Coastal Carolina for the Sun Belt title last weekend. Now, not only did they get the disappointment of missing out on that game, they now deal with the reality that the reward for a great season is a matchup with.....UTSA? All they've done this week is talk about how they felt they were cheated out of the chance to play Coastal and show who the real Sub Belt Champs were, and now they have to get ready for a third rate program like UTSA. The only problem is that UTSA had a pretty good season themselves at 7-4, and finished the season on a 3 game winning streak. You'll also notice that the Roadrunners were one of the few teams to give BYU a good game, losing by only 7 in Provo. They run the ball very well, as their top running threat RB Sincere McCormick piled up 1300+ yards on the way to being named CUSA Offensive player of the year. The Cajuns have been great against the pass this year, but have struggled to stop the run, so that looks to be a potential matchup edge for the Roadrunners. 14 points seems to be a tough ask for a team that might be disinterested in this game against a pretty pesky UTSA team who looks to be motivated. Unfortunately, UTSA's first year coach Jeff Traylor contracted COVID this week, so he'll be out, but the players have been all over social media indicating they intend to win it for him, so again, motivation doesn't look to be a problem for the Roadrunners.
 
100% agree on the motivation for UTSA - that will not be an issue for that side.

I think their players are good enough too, if anything, that is where the issue could come in, if their players aren't quite good enough across the board. I think they will be, but their "want to" or interest level will not be a problem.

The ULL mental stuff is going to cut one of two ways:

Like you say, they are either disappointed to be playing UTSA and hung up on the fact they think Coastal deliberately dodged them to maintain their perfect record and not risk losing the league title and their chance (at the time) of a New Year's 6 game (if Tulsa had beaten Cincy Coastal could've been the one to go).

On the other hand, reportedly there have been a feeling that ULL will take out their disappointment and frustration on UTSA to make an example of them and show everyone again just how good ULL thinks they are.

Me personally, I tend to lean towards the disappointment angle leading to a less than A effort and execution game. But if ULL comes out hot and clicking I don't think that should surprise us either. There is just no way to know ahead of time. If ULL plays their A game, it's going to be tough, but UTSA should be able to hang in there. If ULL shows up with anything less than the A game, they will lose straight up.
 
s--k said:
100% agree on the motivation for UTSA - that will not be an issue for that side.

I think their players are good enough too, if anything, that is where the issue could come in, if their players aren't quite good enough across the board. I think they will be, but their "want to" or interest level will not be a problem.

The ULL mental stuff is going to cut one of two ways:

Like you say, they are either disappointed to be playing UTSA and hung up on the fact they think Coastal deliberately dodged them to maintain their perfect record and not risk losing the league title and their chance (at the time) of a New Year's 6 game (if Tulsa had beaten Cincy Coastal could've been the one to go).

On the other hand, reportedly there have been a feeling that ULL will take out their disappointment and frustration on UTSA to make an example of them and show everyone again just how good ULL thinks they are.

Me personally, I tend to lean towards the disappointment angle leading to a less than A effort and execution game. But if ULL comes out hot and clicking I don't think that should surprise us either. There is just no way to know ahead of time. If ULL plays their A game, it's going to be tough, but UTSA should be able to hang in there. If ULL shows up with anything less than the A game, they will lose straight up.
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Definitely agree with your thoughts here. I know what your talking about regarding the "taking out their disappointment" angle, as I read a couple things from players saying that is their intention. Ok. But I guess my question would be, what makes La La think that they can just "take out their frustrations" at will? If they have the ability to do that, they didn't feel the need to execute it very often. I guess they weren't mad enough to do it when they won by 3 as a 17 point favorite against Georgia State, or when they scored late to sneak past Arky State by 7 as a 14 point favorite. It's not like this is Alabama, who just overwhelms people with it's talent. It's Louisiana Lafayette. You're right S--k, if they don't show up motivated they will lose outright. I think even if they show up motivated, UTSA is every bit as capable to hang with them to the end, just like Georgia State, Georgia Southern and Arkansas State did. Texas State too for that matter.
 
Cure Bowl 6. Liberty +7.5 v Coastal Carolina: Just now getting a chance to write this up, so I'm not sure if this number is still available, but I grabbed it early this afternoon. Obviously, Coastal was a great story this year, but Liberty was a Blocked 39 yard FG in the final minute against NC State away from being undefeated themselves, and that would have included wins of the aforementioned NC State, Virginia Tech and Syracuse , all on the road. The Flames are solid on both sides of the ball, ranking 22nd in yards per play on offense and 26th on defense. The have an SEC level QB in Auburn transfer Malik Willis, who had a 20/4 ratio this year, with 3 of the picks coming in the NCState game, 2 of them tipped passes. He's good, as is their running game(#9 in yards per carry) that should get going against Coastal's 57th ranked rush defense. Their defense also stops the pass(14th) and is good on 3rd down(9th). Coastal is the real deal, obviously, but in a game with two of the best "Group of 5" teams that pretty much mirror each other, I'll take the one who's getting more than a TD. Liberty has proven that they are not afraid of anyone...I think Coastal will get their best shot.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Definitely agree with your thoughts here. I know what your talking about regarding the "taking out their disappointment" angle, as I read a couple things from players saying that is their intention. Ok. But I guess my question would be, what makes La La think that they can just "take out their frustrations" at will? If they have the ability to do that, they didn't feel the need to execute it very often. I guess they weren't mad enough to do it when they won by 3 as a 17 point favorite against Georgia State, or when they scored late to sneak past Arky State by 7 as a 14 point favorite. It's not like this is Alabama, who just overwhelms people with it's talent. It's Louisiana Lafayette. You're right S--k, if they don't show up motivated they will lose outright. I think even if they show up motivated, UTSA is every bit as capable to hang with them to the end, just like Georgia State, Georgia Southern and Arkansas State did. Texas State too for that matter.
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Right. That is something we all fall into from time to time. "this team is going to want to impress" so let's bet them. "this team needs to make a statement" so let's bet them. "this team has something to prove" so let's bet them.

The tricky thing is the other team wants to win too. Assuming they do that is. Much of what we talk about this time of year is who wants to play. Which I fully believe UTSA does.

So even if ULL shows up mad, so what? I guess if I was betting ULL and you could guarantee me they would be all in on this game that would give me some confidence. But they still actually have to do it and as you say above ULL has had some head scratching close games. Some of that could be explained; Tx St backdoored and ULL had covid issues for their September games after ISU. Much to their credit, they played those games instead of postponing. They will tell you that those 2 close games following ISU were the result of not being at full strength. Fact remains, 6 out of 9 ULL's games vs Sun Belt/CUSA were one score margin victory finals.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Cure Bowl 6. Liberty +7.5 v Coastal Carolina: Just now getting a chance to write this up, so I'm not sure if this number is still available, but I grabbed it early this afternoon. Obviously, Coastal was a great story this year, but Liberty was a Blocked 39 yard FG in the final minute against NC State away from being undefeated themselves, and that would have included wins of the aforementioned NC State, Virginia Tech and Syracuse , all on the road. The Flames are solid on both sides of the ball, ranking 22nd in yards per play on offense and 26th on defense. The have an SEC level QB in Auburn transfer Malik Willis, who had a 20/4 ratio this year, with 3 of the picks coming in the NCState game, 2 of them tipped passes. He's good, as is their running game(#9 in yards per carry) that should get going against Coastal's 57th ranked rush defense. Their defense also stops the pass(14th) and is good on 3rd down(9th). Coastal is the real deal, obviously, but in a game with two of the best "Group of 5" teams that pretty much mirror each other, I'll take the one who's getting more than a TD. Liberty has proven that they are not afraid of anyone...I think Coastal will get their best shot.
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Great 5-1 bowl start, Br@ss. Figured you had a run coming.
 
Cheez It Bowl: Tuesday: 7. Oklahoma State -2 v Miami(FL): In many cases when you see an otherwise good team put forth a disastrous effort, it makes sense to look to back that team in their next game for a couple reasons: One, they are likely to bounce back with a much better performance after getting dressed down by their coach(ideally) and 2, you'll usually set some value on that team after such a terrible effort. In this case, I'm throwing that stuff out the window due to the level of depravity Miami displayed in their game against UNC a couple weeks ago. don't want to get too much into the gory details, but the Canes gave up 778 yards out of a total possible 810 yards. It's quite possibly the worst defensive performance in recent college football history. Any team that's capable of that kind of performance will not get my money, and what's worse, I'm not confident at all that Manny Diaz even told them about it or in any way made them feel embarrassed about it. Now they face an Oklahoma State team that has a legitimately good defense and excels in a couple areas that will make things tough for the Miami offense, 3rd down defense and sacks. The Cowboys rank 2nd in 3rd down defense and 10th in sacks, and the Canes struggled mightily in games against good pass rushes, with D'Eriq King getting sacked 6 times vs Virginia Tech, and 5 each against Clemson and Virginia. Oklahoma State has arguably as good a pass rush as any of those 3. Star WR Tylin Wallace has opted in for the Cowboys, so that will help them with their offensive balance. We also have a situation of programs being the polar opposite of each other as far as previous bowl results, with Mike Gundy covering 3 out of their last 4 while Manny Diaz's crew has been 1-4 ATS the spread, including a horrific performance in Manny Diaz's maiden bowl voyage in last year's bowl, a game in which Louisiana Tech shut them out. Okie State is the better team here in my opinion, so I pulled the trigger just to make sure I stayed under a FG.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Cheez It Bowl: Tuesday: 7. Oklahoma State -2 v Miami(FL): In many cases when you see an otherwise good team put forth a disastrous effort, it makes sense to look to back that team in their next game for a couple reasons: One, they are likely to bounce back with a much better performance after getting dressed down by their coach(ideally) and 2, you'll usually set some value on that team after such a terrible effort. In this case, I'm throwing that stuff out the window due to the level of depravity Miami displayed in their game against UNC a couple weeks ago. don't want to get too much into the gory details, but the Canes gave up 778 yards out of a total possible 810 yards. It's quite possibly the worst defensive performance in recent college football history. Any team that's capable of that kind of performance will not get my money, and what's worse, I'm not confident at all that Manny Diaz even told them about it or in any way made them feel embarrassed about it. Now they face an Oklahoma State team that has a legitimately good defense and excels in a couple areas that will make things tough for the Miami offense, 3rd down defense and sacks. The Cowboys rank 2nd in 3rd down defense and 10th in sacks, and the Canes struggled mightily in games against good pass rushes, with D'Eriq King getting sacked 6 times vs Virginia Tech, and 5 each against Clemson and Virginia. Oklahoma State has arguably as good a pass rush as any of those 3. Star WR Tylin Wallace has opted in for the Cowboys, so that will help them with their offensive balance. We also have a situation of programs being the polar opposite of each other as far as previous bowl results, with Mike Gundy covering 3 out of their last 4 while Manny Diaz's crew has been 1-4 ATS the spread, including a horrific performance in Manny Diaz's maiden bowl voyage in last year's bowl, a game in which Louisiana Tech shut them out. Okie State is the better team here in my opinion, so I pulled the trigger just to make sure I stayed under a FG.
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Nice write-up. Interestingly, the line has been dropping toward Miami...maybe because of King's Announcement? or were there added opt-outs recently?
 
lfhlaw said:
Nice write-up. Interestingly, the line has been dropping toward Miami...maybe because of King's Announcement? or were there added opt-outs recently?
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I haven't seen any opt outs other than Hubbard for Okie State. Doesn't mean there haven't been any however.
 
I was looking into oklahoma state as well and the only thing that concerns me is they had 4 practices instead of 14 normally, ....not sure what miami did. One of those things may not matter but also may mean they won't be as prepared

On decision to let players go home for Christmas:

"Yeah, there's no question we made a good decision letting them go home for three days, spend time with their family. You know, it cost us some practices. We had what I would consider four real practices for this bowl game. Most bowl games for us we practice 14 times, but for them to go and spend time with their family, take a break, and then come back, their attitude's been good. The practices have been good. In the meetings they are all joking around and enjoy being around each other and there's really what we're trying to get accomplished this year during the bowl season."
 
Alamo Bowl 8. Colorado +8.5 v Texas: I was going to sit this one out out of sheer laziness, but once I finally spent some time looking at this, I really can't pass up this many points in an opportunity to fade a Tom Herman Texas team laying like this. This one seems like a familiar script: A team in Texas who year after year has sizable expectations that they fall short of, then we have to wonder at the end of the year whether or not they care to be in the bowl they get assigned to. In Texas's case, it all depends on the role. Last year in this same bowl, they were 7 point dogs to a Utah team that had playoff aspirations before laying an egg in the Pac 12 title game. Texas had a chip on their shoulder and it showed, as they blew the doors off Utah in a role that Herman thrives in. This year it's the opposite. 5 team captains have opted out, and so many rumors have swirled around the coaching situation there that you don't even know what to think. Not only did it seem obvious that Texas would have canned Herman if they could find an exciting alternative, but it seemed as though Herman might have been putting feelers out for other jobs, which can't bode well for the preparations for this game. I am skeptical that Texas will have a top effort ready to go in this one. Colorado on the other hand went 4-1 including a couple nice wins over UCLA and Stanford as well as a solid win over a pretty good San Diego State team. They didn't set the world on fire in any specific category but they were solid in all phases, especially in pass defense (6th in yards per attempt against ) and getting off the field on third down (18th). Nobody gave them a chance in hell of competing for a PAC 12 championship, but there they were at the end of the year with the second best record in the conference, and in their eyes, they likely feel they have things left to prove and Texas is the perfect high profile squad with warts that they might be looking for. Throughout the season, the only games Texas win by more than this number were in their opener against UTEP and the finale against K State. They also beat Baylor by 11, but the rest of their games were all close games decided late, I think Colorado has proven to be on par with most of the competition the Longhorns have played, so I think the chances are good that they make a game of this one.
 
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I'm not gonna touch Wisconsin and Wake in the Mayo Bowl or whatever. The numbers would tell you that Wake was a bit of a turnover fueled fluke, and both their offensive and defensive numbers are nothing to write home about. However, after watching Wisconsin play offense the past several weeks, you will not catch me at the window looking for any semblance of a Wisconsin ticket., I could make a case for either team here, so I won't take a side.
 
Lean Buffs/over in that one, not sure how I'm gonna play it. Health on Cowboys, not even sure they're interested and think the Canes are in a buy low spot. Probably should go over there too but not the biggest fan of side and total in a game. BOL the rest of the way, I'm certainly no Xs and Os guy, your write ups are tremendous!
 
I was definitely going to be on Oklahoma as a dog in the Cotton Bowl, but now that half of Florida's offense has opted out and the line flipped, who knows?

It's funny how things work in sports. 10 years ago, the idea of opting out of bowl games wasn't even "invented" yet , but now it's expected. It's almost like a status symbol for these guys. If you don't opt out, you ain't shit. You get a lot more attention by putting out the themed twitter post talking about how much your coaches, teammates and fans mean to you than just playing in the game. I understand why they do it, and the teammates that I would feel these guys are abandoning always support the opt outs and encourage them to do it, so there's really no harm no foul but the old man in me still wishes they would finish it off. Just my opinion. (Of course, I'm also the guy who wants every team, pro and college, to wear the uniforms they wore in the 80's and never change, so that tells you who you're dealing with)
 
Br@ssknux said:
I was definitely going to be on Oklahoma as a dog in the Cotton Bowl, but now that half of Florida's offense has opted out and the line flipped, who knows?

It's funny how things work in sports. 10 years ago, the idea of opting out of bowl games wasn't even "invented" yet , but now it's expected. It's almost like a status symbol for these guys. If you don't opt out, you ain't shit. You get a lot more attention by putting out the themed twitter post talking about how much your coaches, teammates and fans mean to you than just playing in the game. I understand why they do it, and the teammates that I would feel these guys are abandoning always support the opt outs and encourage them to do it, so there's really no harm no foul but the old man in me still wishes they would finish it off. Just my opinion. (Of course, I'm also the guy who wants every team, pro and college, to wear the uniforms they wore in the 80's and never change, so that tells you who you're dealing with)
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Great post. I couldn't have said it better.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I was definitely going to be on Oklahoma as a dog in the Cotton Bowl, but now that half of Florida's offense has opted out and the line flipped, who knows?

It's funny how things work in sports. 10 years ago, the idea of opting out of bowl games wasn't even "invented" yet , but now it's expected. It's almost like a status symbol for these guys. If you don't opt out, you ain't shit. You get a lot more attention by putting out the themed twitter post talking about how much your coaches, teammates and fans mean to you than just playing in the game. I understand why they do it, and the teammates that I would feel these guys are abandoning always support the opt outs and encourage them to do it, so there's really no harm no foul but the old man in me still wishes they would finish it off. Just my opinion. (Of course, I'm also the guy who wants every team, pro and college, to wear the uniforms they wore in the 80's and never change, so that tells you who you're dealing with)
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I agree. The only thing, to me, that would help some opt out/opt in would be if a one season player(ie Junior player) wanted to prove themselves against better competition. Especially this year as some teams played only 6 games. So it's a small sample size and even then vs some inferior opponents at times. Scouts like to see how top players match up against top players sometimes. You hear about it during the All stars type games and such.
 
OU +3 or -2.5 isn't that much of a difference....if OU loses I dont think its on a last second fg.....I think they now have the better O, D and coach.....sonhars for me to think Florida is gonna be up for this game after getting whooped by Bama and blowing the season vs LSU
 
Br@ssknux said:
I was definitely going to be on Oklahoma as a dog in the Cotton Bowl, but now that half of Florida's offense has opted out and the line flipped, who knows?

It's funny how things work in sports. 10 years ago, the idea of opting out of bowl games wasn't even "invented" yet , but now it's expected. It's almost like a status symbol for these guys. If you don't opt out, you ain't shit. You get a lot more attention by putting out the themed twitter post talking about how much your coaches, teammates and fans mean to you than just playing in the game. I understand why they do it, and the teammates that I would feel these guys are abandoning always support the opt outs and encourage them to do it, so there's really no harm no foul but the old man in me still wishes they would finish it off. Just my opinion. (Of course, I'm also the guy who wants every team, pro and college, to wear the uniforms they wore in the 80's and never change, so that tells you who you're dealing with)
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Love your write ups. I know you're not railing against players that opt out. I'm pretty old school myself but am totally with the players. Might be frustrating for bettors and such but football is a brutal sport. You're always one play from being done forever. If a player is good enough to possibly play pro ball and make more in 5 years than they most likely would in an entire "normal" career, why take the risk. I think most of us in the same position would do the same. Again, i know you know this and I'm old school too, but I do support the power in sports switching to the players, especially in football.
 
lvmike32 said:
Love your write ups. I know you're not railing against players that opt out. I'm pretty old school myself but am totally with the players. Might be frustrating for bettors and such but football is a brutal sport. You're always one play from being done forever. If a player is good enough to possibly play pro ball and make more in 5 years than they most likely would in an entire "normal" career, why take the risk. I think most of us in the same position would do the same. Again, i know you know this and I'm old school too, but I do support the power in sports switching to the players, especially in football.
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I don’t think I would, back when I was young I loved playing as I’m sure most these guys do. Not saying they should or shouldn’t, just that I can’t imagine not playing. Who the hell thinks bout getting hurt?? Maybe it different if you so close to a life changing paycheck (I wouldn’t know, lol) but I think more times than not it the ppl around them getting in their heads about that cause athletes rarely think in those terms.

when it started happening and was mostly 1st round type guys I said “don’t blame them”, I still don’t but don’t love it. I could def do without the tweets saying how much they loved the team, coach, teammates. If ya don’t play more power to ya but spare me that junk :)
 
lvmike32 said:
Love your write ups. I know you're not railing against players that opt out. I'm pretty old school myself but am totally with the players. Might be frustrating for bettors and such but football is a brutal sport. You're always one play from being done forever. If a player is good enough to possibly play pro ball and make more in 5 years than they most likely would in an entire "normal" career, why take the risk. I think most of us in the same position would do the same. Again, i know you know this and I'm old school too, but I do support the power in sports switching to the players, especially in football.
Click to expand...
Not arguing with you, and I might be the oddball, but I wouldn't. No fucking chance. There's no way I could look at my teammates, after all the teamwork shit and brotherhood and family crap that all these teams constantly preach to an almost cultish level, and then turn around and say, "Hey sorry guys, you guys mean the world to me, but you're on your own here because I can't take a 1 in 10,000 chance that I might have a career ending injury in this one game."

Now, that's just me, and I'm talking about a situation in a vacuum. Actually, in some cases, the coaches might be encouraging the kids to opt out because they have some younger kids behind them that they might want to give a chance to in a bowl. Ans a lineman, or a receiver in the grand scheme of things don't make a difference when you have 90 guys on a roster.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
OU +3 or -2.5 isn't that much of a difference....if OU loses I dont think its on a last second fg.....I think they now have the better O, D and coach.....sonhars for me to think Florida is gonna be up for this game after getting whooped by Bama and blowing the season vs LSU
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A couple things on that Rusty....first of all, 6 points is a big difference in my book, and it doesn't matter where the line is IMO. How many games come down to a score, 1 way or the other? Also, didn't Florida make a comeback in that game with Bama? They got outplayed soundly, but they covered by 2 scores.
 
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