12. Clemson -7 v Ohio State: I would usually be on the dog in a game like this, but not this time. I realize that Ohio State is really mad, and they feel disrespected, but I am not at all confident in their ability to hang with Clemson in this game, and my reasons are probably not unique. Anyone who has watched Ohio State play this year knows that this is not even in the same zip code with their team last year, and that includes this year's Justin Fields against last year's Justin Fields. Something is just not right with him. We all know that OSU has faced very weak competition, yet the two defenses(Indiana and Northwestern) that have any ability at all made him look extremely flawed, and forced him into all kinds of awkward plays and bad decisions. They don't have the offensive playmakers of last year, and they won't be able to rely on their running game like they did against Northwestern, as Clemson is among the stingiest run defenses in the country, as you would expect. Even worse, Fields has been getting sacked early and often by everyone they've played, resulting in a sack rate that's 115th in the country. Clemson is 4th in sacking the QB. That is a recipe for disaster for the Buckeyes. The bigger mismatch however, looks to be Clemson's offense against the OSU defense. Ohio State ranked 41st in the country in yards per play, but that was against 6 of the worst offenses in the country, In fact, on a yards per play basis, here's where their opponents ranked:
Nebraska 73rd
Penn State: 84th
Indiana: 94th
Michigan State: 109th
Northwestern: 113th
Rutgers: 118th
Rutgers scored 27 points on them. Penn State averaged almost 10 yards per pass attempt on them. Indiana threw for 491 yards on only 27 completions (18 yards per!). If Clemson or Alabama (or Cincinnati or Georgia or even Oklahoma) played that schedule, they'd be #1 with a bullet in pretty much every defensive category. Have they been sandbagging? Maybe. But my guess is that if Michael Penix and Sean Clifford can torch that defense with downfield throws, Trevor Lawrence is merely deciding which receivers he wants to make a star out of as he watches the tape. Clemson likes nothing better than laying the wood to Ohio State, and they'll relish the opportunity to back up the bravado that their coach has been throwing out there without any fear whatsoever. If OSU comes out and hangs with Clemson I'll need Tommy John surgery from all the rapid fire hat tipping I'll be doing, because the Buckeyes look to be walking into an ass beating.
