Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Truer word never spoken
I uttered a few profanities toward them tonight. Seems like they never make it easy and I feel like I am a long term loser on their games. I'll thank my blessings and move on tonight.
Bowls? Why not?
- Thread starter Br@ssknux
- Start date
I uttered a few profanities toward them tonight. Seems like they never make it easy and I feel like I am a long term loser on their games. I'll thank my blessings and move on tonight.
L8kersFan74
Pretty much a regular
That's the difference of the world we live in today vs when most of us were growing up, their age, etc. Millenials. Everybody's a winner. Everybody makes the team. Everybody gets a trophy. Everybody gets pizza and ice cream. Simply put, the "Pussification of America". It all ties in.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Not betting Oklahoma/Florida. I liked Oklahoma as a 3 point dog initially and now the line is approaching Oklahoma -6. Just can't bet the game in that situation. I originally liked OU because I thought their defense stood a better chance of being able to stop Florida than vice versa, but now I'd have to lay 5.5 against a passing offense that is likely to be very competent even with 3rd stringers at the receiver position. I'm just not gonna do it.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Thursday Tulsa -2.5 v Mississippi State: Although Leach and the Bulldogs have bounced back after a horrendous 5-6 week stretch where they were lost in the proverbial desert, they remain a pretty bad offensive team that relies solely on their short passing game due to a complete inability to run the ball. Their offensive stats are atrocious, 127th in rushing yards per carry, 111th in yards per pass attempt, 114th on 3rd down, etc. Tulsa's defense is the real deal, 6th in yards per play, 14th against the pass and 14th on 3rd down. Miss State certainly profiles as a team that will struggle mightily on 3rd down, and they don't have any big play ability to score quickly. They need to grind out rives, and they simply stink at doing that. Tulsa hung tough with Oklahoma State early and they gave Cincy everything they could handle on their home field. It's a bad matchup for the Bulldogs offense, and Mike Leach has been embarrassing in his previous bowl experience. He's 2-7 ATS, and in many cases, his teams looked completely unprepared in those games.
****You can get Tulsa +1.5 on this game now. ********
****You can get Tulsa +1.5 on this game now. ********
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twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Curious you think O/U....
I’m torn here. I think Messy St defense is very capable. Tulsa D is legit too.
Leach is also very dangerous to bet here I do agree.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
I'm terrible on totals but I would not bet an over. Both defenses have the advantage over the offenses in this one.
lfhlaw
Pretty much a regular
Had King not left due to injury, I think there was a good chance Okie st may have lost but I’ll never know now lol.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Okie St. has kind of a way doing themselves in, through their own coaching decisions on defense. When they sat in zone, they were terrible played soft and missed tackles and plays went for much more yardage than they should have. When they were aggressive with pass rush and blitzing they were much better and got stops. They are a frustrating team to back, because they are capable on defense but their scheme (too much zone imo) does them in.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
The 30 yard sideways out patterns 5 yards downfield on 3rd and 8 were a problem too.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Cotton Bowl: 10. Florida +7 v Oklahoma: Ok, i saw this at +6.5 (+100) and I was able to buy it to +7 at (-117) so I went ahead and pulled the trigger. I just can't pass up 10 points of value here, even though I thought the original line should have been closer to PK than Florida -3. Here's how I see it. A team like Florida is probably among the most well equipped teams to weather the number of missing players they'll have. For example, a guy like Justin Shorter, a former 5 star receiver who transferred in from Penn State is just lying around on their sideline. He hasn't done much in his career, but he's the kind of raw material Florida will have looking for an opportunity. They'll still have Trask, who by all accounts is all in for this game (good on him) and they'll be giving opportunities to their young guys who undoubtedly have the talent to succeed. Also, in many cases, the team ups their game when parts are missing. There's examples of this. For example, Marshall was missing their top RB, top OT and best defensive player, the only 3 guys on their team who garnered All-CUSA honors, and they were a whisker away from beating Buffalo outright. You would think a team like Marshall wouldn't have the depth to absorb the blow of losing those guys, but they persevered well. I would think Florida would be much better equipped than a team like Marshall to overcome those losses, even though there's a higher number of them. Ultimately, the guys on the field for Florida will play with urgency because all these SEC teams believe strongly in the SEC pride thing. They will be fighting like crazy to not suffer the indignity of getting beaten soundly by a Big 12 team. I do believe that Oklahoma is improved quite a bit on defense, but you could say the same thing about them last year before they played LSU. If they put the clamps on a stud QB like Trask, I'll tip my cap, and even if they do, having Kyle Trask in a back door situation is a pretty attractive concept. I never would have thought this spread would go all the way to 7. It's just too much value to pass up in my opinion, even though I was convinced I was going to sit this one out.
played their TT over 30.5. After Q1 thought it would be over by half. Instead in 3Q I was looking to hedge off LIVE not thinking they would score 10 more and get me the win. But Oddsmakers were thinking like me - at one time I could have gotten off at under 34.5 but was mostly around 31.5 - so i stayed with the bet. I don't remember specific plays but do remember cussing out Gundy play calling. Played them against TCU earlier in the year and luckily was able to get off that bet live after they started collapsing after a great start. Yes, hard team to bet on. LOL
And regarding Miami and that defense, remember when Miami/FSU was always the game of year in CF. How the mighty have fallen.
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Considered this myself but bit on a ML parlay. Been looking for a Clemson dance partner haha. I agree and think you cash
lfhlaw
Pretty much a regular
Got +7.5
I had the over 67.5 and it seems like the O/U dropped like a stone and was at 63.5, bumped up to 64.5 recently.....so not sure what's going on there...whether it's offensive players sitting out, or Defensive players opting back in lol.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
it been mentioned trask may only play a half and Gators treating it like spring game. Whether that true or bs beats me, that what coach said tho.
lfhlaw
Pretty much a regular
Ouch!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
who knows if it smoke screen or accurate tho? Cant ever tell this time of year. I think that had lot to do with line shooting up way it did tho.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
We should have known that, I guess. I mean, they've been ding things like that in college football for years, right?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
sure sounded like a built in excuse to me but fuck, not like they needed it. They missing all their top pass catchers on a team that lives on its passing game.
BenchCoach
Pretty much a regular
Rain and wind probably knocked it down. I am a big weather follower but in tonight's situation I don't think it will matter. These teams aren't going to change their approach and run the ball
L8kersFan74
Pretty much a regular
Weather is a complete non-factor as this game is at AT&T Stadium (retractable roof). Number went down solely based on word of Gator WRs/etc (Pitts & Co) that will not play tonight, BC.
That said I agree with you. I'm on overs as well. And tailed you on 1st quarter.
BenchCoach
Pretty much a regular
Total brain fart by me. I knew that but I also just read the weather report and saw the question...
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
There wasn't an easier game to cap than this Cotton Bowl after all the Florida Opt outs
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Well, Wise, things don't come as easily for me as they do for you apparently.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Arizona Bowl:11 San Jose State -9.5 v Ball State: I usually don't like to lay significant points in bowl games, but there's quite a few reasons for this one, and we don't have to talk about opt outs!! First, san Jose State is a really good team with balance on both sides of the ball. I've mentioned this in previous write ups when I've backed the Spartans, but they don't have any one area that they struggle with. They run it, they throw it, they stop the run and they stop the pass, especially in recent weeks. On the flip side, Ball State had a great year, and they have a very solid offense, but they used some smoke and mirrors to get to a 5-1 record, having been outgained in 3 games and only outgaining their foes by 13 yards per game overall. Defensively, they are not good, ranking 85th in overall yards per play against, and 102nd against the pass. This won't bode well for them against San Jose State, who sports the 11th ranked offense in yards per play and ranks 15th in passing yards per attempt, quite a mismatch. I also think Ball State is going to struggle to move it on San Jose through the air, as the Spartans just 2 weeks ago limited Hank Bachmeier and Boise to just 5,7 yards per attempt, on the way to outgaining Boise 498-233(!!) in the Mountain West championship game. Overall, the Mountain West is typically a significantly stronger league than the MAC and I don't think this year is any different, as 2 teams San Jose beat, Nevada and Hawaii, have both won their bowl games outright. Ball State has never won a bowl game (0-7 all time) and I don't think they'll start a new trend in this one. San Jose has a great shot to go undefeated, definitely a motivating factor, and QB Nick Starkel has played like one of the top 20 QBs in the country. I think he'll have an easy time moving the ball on that substandard Ball State pass defense, and I think it'll be hard for the Cardinals to keep pace against the San Jose State defense that limited Boise, Nevada and Hawaii to an average of 323 yards per game.
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Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Not getting involved with Army and West Virginia. I'm a little leery that Army's offense will be able to do much against an above average defense like West Virginia, especially now that a competent guy like Neal Brown is at the helm in Morgantown. Army's defense is solid as well, and I certainly don't touch Jarred Doege, so I don't want to lay the points either. Both of the defenses profile a lot better than the offenses, so even at a low number that under could make sense, but as I've said many times, I'm about 10% on totals so I refuse to talk about them.
Qb Sanders got hurt first drive for ok st though dont forget
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
What was difficult regarding this 1 game? Florida D was already terrible. Missing top players. OU passing game matched up very well. This particular game played out exactly the way it seemed it would. Live ingame allowed for many opportunities to jump on board. Anyway, GL the rest of the way.
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Yes because the 5 perfect downfield bombs that Perry threw right into the hands of his receivers would have been caught had King thrown them......;-). No Receivers!
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Why are you coming in here and hazing me? Like I need someone explaining the reasons every bettor from here to kingdom come bet on Oklahoma, and that I could have got out of it in game. No shit, Sherlock. I took a shot on 13 fucking points of line movement. They've built billion dollar casinos on the backs of people who bet on games playing out the way they seemed they would. Even the games that REALLY REALLY REALLY seemed like total locks. Kyle Trask threw 3 INTs in the fucking first quarter on passes a high school QB wouldn't throw. That is not what would SEEM to happen. Like you I was planning to bet Oklahoma +3 due to the mismatch between their pass offense and Oklahoma's pass D. When the line moved 13 points, I decided to take a contrarian view and bet on the likelihood Florida would pile up 500+ yards even with the opt outs. They did, but it didn't work out.
L8kersFan74
Pretty much a regular
With you on SJSU today. Hopefully they roll. That defense is nasty. GL today, Br@ss.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Not hazing you at all. Your comment that things come easier for me than you was a little weird so I was clarifying this particular game.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
You made a point to come in here and say, "There wasn't an easier game to cap than this Cotton Bowl" when I was on the other side. Hence, easy for you, and by virtue of me missing the easiest game, hard for me. What could be weird about that comment?
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Didn't know you knew me that well. Anyway, no need to further this topic. GL today and Happy New Year. Keep up the great work. By the way, I have complimented your threads prior to this.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
I know you have and I appreciate it. Like I said, I was oversensitive which is not like me. Take care and I'm pretty sure you'll agree with me when I write up OSU/Clemson.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Lol. 1 day at a time. This San Jose St since I live here has me fired up. Champagne will be flowing early! Also love the Army-WV matchup. The military schools should close out the year every year!
GL!
Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
Thoughts on the BSU/SJST U64? Really think SJST smothers them and wins in a 38-13 type game.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
sooners ran the shit out the ball! Certainly didn’t hurt the over, I think they averaged way over 10 per carry on their way to 400+ on the ground!!
lfhlaw
Pretty much a regular
Well yes...i couldn't account for that.....but when King was in, I felt the throws were maybe more catchable perhaps, but true...the receivers were awful in catching the ball -- oof!
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Let's say you decided that over the past 2 days you were going to bet on Wake, Florida, Tulsa and San Jose State. If you did that, you have seen a lifetime's worth of opposing DBs streaking down the field with INTs. Your guys will have thrown 12 INTs, 3 for TD's, another 2 down to the 2 yard line. Your defenses would have gotten one. The funniest part is that 3 of the QBs (Starkel, Trask and Sam Hartman) came into their bowl games with a combined 69/10 TD INT ratio on the year, and they threw 10 picks between them in the past 48 hours. That's gambling for ya!
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Also, that was nice of Tulsa to be so pissed that they were willing to brawl with a 3-7 team that they couldn't beat despite outgaining them 484-271. Awesome job to throw a pick 6, another pick in the end zone, get stopped on downs in the red zone twice and fail to cover by a half point. Bravo!
That is wild when you think about it.
I still can't get over the Wake game. Think it was 4 possessions in a row and I think 3 of them were like Groundhog day - looked the same. The Wisconsin safeties/LBs jump a short 5 yard pass over the middle and almost run it back for a TD. Never seen anything like it.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
I really couldn't make up my mind on Cincy and Georgia so I'm not playing it. It's probably for the best the way things have gone the past couple of days. Based on the full season numbers, on paper it looks like the Bearcats would be the play getting up to 8.5 now, but Georgia is a totally different team offensively with JT Daniels at QB. I realize that 3 games is a small sample size and the defensive competition hasn't been stellar, but if you used the stats compiled under Daniels, Georgia would rank 4th in overall yards per play and 5th in passing yards per attempt. On 3rd down they were solid even with Stetson Bennett at the helm ranking 9th in converting 3rd downs. Cincy has a great defense, but I don't know that they'll be able to get stops consistently against Daniels, and although Georgia has some opt outs, their most explosive offensive players are Zahir White and George Pickens, who ae both playing. Defensively, they've been torched by high powered passing attacks, but even though Cincy has succeeded in the passing game this year, I wouldn't call Desmond Ridder a high powered passer, and their offense is more geared toward running the ball. Unfortunately for the Bearcats, Georgia ranks #1 in the country against the run, so it looks like a bad matchup for them. We're not talking about the UCF and Memphis defenses, which Cincy has been able to muscle up on and play the bully against. That isn't happening against Georgia...they'll have to throw it effectively downfield, and I think that will be a major challenge for Ridder. Ultimately, Georgia has taken a ton of crap for showing up to these bowls with inconsistent efforts, and it's obvious Kirby Smart is very cognizant of it. I suspect they'll have a nice effort in their backyard. I do however have a ton of respect for Fickell and Cincy, and I don't want to get caught on the wrong side of an SEC team laying an egg with the opt out excuse. 8.5 would be too much to lay, so I'll be sitting this one out.
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Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
I'm also not playing Northwestern v Auburn. Northwestern is pretty much an auto play when they are dogged, but I can't see laying more than a FG with an offense that is probably outmanned. Also, Peyton Ramsey has developed a penchant for turnovers, which Northwestern does not have the margin of error to overcome. I don't trust him, especially when I've been absolutely destroyed by INTs in the past couple of days. On the flip side, I certainly don't trust Auburn's offense against this Northwestern defense that forces opposing offenses into terrible mistakes, and completely shuts down any and all passing games. Auburn's offense away from home under Bo Nix makes mistakes on it's own, let alone against one of the most sound defenses in the country. In a nutshell, I don't trust NW as a favorite, and I don't trust Auburn in any scenario against a good defense, so I have to sit this one out as well.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
I'm laying off the ND/Bama game as well. Like everyone else, I can't ignore what Notre Dame has told us time and time again with their play in big games like this....they simply can't hang. Alabama is a juggernaut, and even though ND has proven their mettle on defense a few times, until someone actually stops Alabama on offense, I'm not getting in front of that train. However, when a spread gets as high as 20, there is so much randomness in the outcome that it seems silly to play it. Saban might call off the dogs, Book could muster a couple late drives to sneak in the back door, etc. Also, I think we are putting a lot of stock in that ND performance in the ACC title game, and I hesitate to take much from it. There was no way, no matter how much they might say so, that Notre Dame had much urgency in that game. They knew in all likelihood that they were in the playoff regardless of the outcome because nobody really needed to see a Texas A&M v Alabama rematch and nobody would be able to match their earlier win against Clemson. Plus, there's no urgency for ND to compete for the ACC title, because they really aren't even in that conference(it was an arrangement of convenience for this year) and they pride themselves on being an independent. Clemson on the other hand, was playing for their playoff lives plus had revenge, so there was little chance that combo was going to result in a close game. Giving a team like ND, who really doesn't have a major area of deficiency 20 points seems like a valueless proposition, so I'll stay off it. This seems destined to be a game that will be over early, but might be a coin flip on which side of 20 it lands on.
Good post here
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
12. Clemson -7 v Ohio State: I would usually be on the dog in a game like this, but not this time. I realize that Ohio State is really mad, and they feel disrespected, but I am not at all confident in their ability to hang with Clemson in this game, and my reasons are probably not unique. Anyone who has watched Ohio State play this year knows that this is not even in the same zip code with their team last year, and that includes this year's Justin Fields against last year's Justin Fields. Something is just not right with him. We all know that OSU has faced very weak competition, yet the two defenses(Indiana and Northwestern) that have any ability at all made him look extremely flawed, and forced him into all kinds of awkward plays and bad decisions. They don't have the offensive playmakers of last year, and they won't be able to rely on their running game like they did against Northwestern, as Clemson is among the stingiest run defenses in the country, as you would expect. Even worse, Fields has been getting sacked early and often by everyone they've played, resulting in a sack rate that's 115th in the country. Clemson is 4th in sacking the QB. That is a recipe for disaster for the Buckeyes. The bigger mismatch however, looks to be Clemson's offense against the OSU defense. Ohio State ranked 41st in the country in yards per play, but that was against 6 of the worst offenses in the country, In fact, on a yards per play basis, here's where their opponents ranked:
Nebraska 73rd
Penn State: 84th
Indiana: 94th
Michigan State: 109th
Northwestern: 113th
Rutgers: 118th
Rutgers scored 27 points on them. Penn State averaged almost 10 yards per pass attempt on them. Indiana threw for 491 yards on only 27 completions (18 yards per!). If Clemson or Alabama (or Cincinnati or Georgia or even Oklahoma) played that schedule, they'd be #1 with a bullet in pretty much every defensive category. Have they been sandbagging? Maybe. But my guess is that if Michael Penix and Sean Clifford can torch that defense with downfield throws, Trevor Lawrence is merely deciding which receivers he wants to make a star out of as he watches the tape. Clemson likes nothing better than laying the wood to Ohio State, and they'll relish the opportunity to back up the bravado that their coach has been throwing out there without any fear whatsoever. If OSU comes out and hangs with Clemson I'll need Tommy John surgery from all the rapid fire hat tipping I'll be doing, because the Buckeyes look to be walking into an ass beating.
Nebraska 73rd
Penn State: 84th
Indiana: 94th
Michigan State: 109th
Northwestern: 113th
Rutgers: 118th
Rutgers scored 27 points on them. Penn State averaged almost 10 yards per pass attempt on them. Indiana threw for 491 yards on only 27 completions (18 yards per!). If Clemson or Alabama (or Cincinnati or Georgia or even Oklahoma) played that schedule, they'd be #1 with a bullet in pretty much every defensive category. Have they been sandbagging? Maybe. But my guess is that if Michael Penix and Sean Clifford can torch that defense with downfield throws, Trevor Lawrence is merely deciding which receivers he wants to make a star out of as he watches the tape. Clemson likes nothing better than laying the wood to Ohio State, and they'll relish the opportunity to back up the bravado that their coach has been throwing out there without any fear whatsoever. If OSU comes out and hangs with Clemson I'll need Tommy John surgery from all the rapid fire hat tipping I'll be doing, because the Buckeyes look to be walking into an ass beating.
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