Bowls Discussion - Who to Fade - Who to Back - ETC

I was interested in Wisconsin vs ASU, but they are making me think twice with the -7
 
I think @KJ and I were joking about how Miami Hurricanes would like playing in El Paso!
 
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s--k said:
I think @KJ and I were joking about how Miami Hurricanes would like playing in El Paso!
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And actually, I think they played Washington State there once, maybe 6-7 years ago in the snow. Luke Falk
 
cubsker said:
Purdue favored blows my mind.
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In Nashville too. Tennessee doesn't even have to travel! Sometimes that works as a negative, bowl so close to home it doesn't feel special...like traveling to play Vandy or something
 
Wake getting way too much respect. Aggies power Run game will break that defense. Plus aggies defense will get pressure at the mesh point just like clemson and Pitt did. Long as A&M interested (cause I know wake be fired up to be there) ags will smash them.
 
I like to try and find teams who are returning to the same venue as prior bowl and if that team won that bowl, fade them.
 
s--k said:
Texas Tech vs Mike Leach and Miss State is pretty interesting
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Mississippi State played regular season game at Liberty Bowl, not sure how the players will feel about going back a couple months later for their bowl game.
 
s--k said:
Mississippi State played regular season game at Liberty Bowl, not sure how the players will feel about going back a couple months later for their bowl game.
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This the hardest part bout bowl season. I hate trying to cap motivation!
 
I myself don't have a problem with Purdue as favorite, but at one point this year, Tennessee was super hot perception wise...before they played Georgia. Purdue was pretty hot for a while too, all that talk of their wins vs ranked #2 teams in a row.

Should be a really good game I'd figure...as long as Purdue's NFL prospects play.
 
s--k said:
I myself don't have a problem with it, but at one point this year, Tennessee was super hot perception wise...before they played Georgia. Purdue was pretty hot for a while too, all that talk of their wins vs ranked #2 teams in a row.

Should be a really good game I'd figure...as long as Purdue's NFL prospects play.
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Yea off top my head it feels like a pretty close/tough one to call. I like some things bout both teams. Either team -3 wouldn’t have surprised me, somewhere between that and pick makes sense to me off top my head.
 
Lots of 6.5s on Ohio State now. I was surprised they opened it so high. Knew Utah would take lots of money at that level.
 
Some missing in post #88 found elsewhere:
Penn State -4 /46 vs Ark
Iowa -1.5 / 45 vs UK

Nothing on LSU/K-State...K-State QB situation matters quite a bit and who is coaching LSU if it is Kelly would matter for the line I'd think.
 
Not that long ago, Nebraska was -8.5 at home vs purdue. Now Tenny is +3 basically at home. Well, they're not any more after I drove to Iowa.
 
s--k said:
Some missing in post #88 found elsewhere:
Penn State -4 /46 vs Ark
Iowa -1.5 / 45 vs UK

Nothing on LSU/K-State...K-State QB situation matters quite a bit and who is coaching LSU if it is Kelly would matter for the line I'd think.
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Arky -4
 
s--k said:
Kent State? A lot of expectations to get their first league title since 1972 to fall flat on their face. Record vs teams with winning records is just 1-3 and lost the 3 by 33, 24 and yesterday by 18. Their only win vs a team with a winning record came by 5 points (because opponent failed going for 2 twice instead of kicking xpts).

These Kent players won the 2019 bowl game, so not like this would be some big accomplishment for them to go to and win another bowl. They might be down after yesterday.

Could be some questionable motivations for the loser of the MAC Title in the bowl. Buffalo-4 did snap the streak last year beating Marshall on Christmas day after being upset by Ball St in the MAC Title. However, prior to that, the MAC game loser; 2019 CM+3 lost to SD St by 37, 2018 Buff-1 lost to Troy by 10, 2017 Akron+22.5 lost by 47 to FAU, 2016 Ohio+4.5 lost to Troy by 5, 2015 NIU+7.5 lost to Boise by 48. That was 5 straight losses. BG did lose title game and won their bowl in 2014.
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Very interesting thoughts. I like...
 
B.A.R. said:
Very interesting thoughts. I like...
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Concern about Wyoming playing at Boise, a location they played at just last month. Not much of a "reward". However, MWC teams deal with this often. Nevada just beat Tulane there last year with some of the same motivational questions for them in that bowl. In 2017 Wyoming lost at Boise in the regular season, returned for the bowl and beat Central Michigan 37-14 laying 3. So I am not going to worry about the geographic angle for Wyoming. Kent might enjoy a trip to the fabled "blue", still I do worry about their motives after the MAC Title failure.
 
s--k said:
Concern about Wyoming playing at Boise, a location they played at just last month. Not much of a "reward". However, MWC teams deal with this often. Nevada just beat Tulane there last year with some of the same motivational questions for them in that bowl. In 2017 Wyoming lost at Boise in the regular season, returned for the bowl and beat Central Michigan 37-14 laying 3. So I am not going to worry about the geographic angle for Wyoming. Kent might enjoy a trip to the fabled "blue", still I do worry about their motives after the MAC Title failure.
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Kent is a team that other than 2 games skunked me this year. Something about this team...
 
The Gator Bowel took Wake over Clemson? That is INSANE.

Clemson has to be disappointed and insulted as shit to be stuck with a 7-5 Iowa State team. I don't how that will affect Clemson's performance, but it is shocking.
 
B.A.R. said:
Kent is a team that other than 2 games skunked me this year. Something about this team...
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Both Kent and Wyoming have had some unexpected stinkers. Both teams. One week they look dominant and the next week they are upset as favorites in ugly fashion. I guess they belong together this post season.
 
M.W. said:
The Gator Bowel took Wake over Clemson? That is INSANE.

Clemson has to be disappointed and insulted as shit to be stuck with a 7-5 Iowa State team. I don't how that will affect Clemson's performance, but it is shocking.
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Clemson pissed...they going to make Clones pay! hehe
 
cubsker said:
On Nevada, I'd wait and see if strong is playing. His leg is in bad shape, may not be worth it.
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I was shocked he played the 2nd H vs CSU after putting up nice stats 1st H and then got his leg tweaked before HT. He came back out 2nd H and slung it around. Credit to him. For the bowl though, like you say probably not worth it?
 
s--k said:
Need Pitt fan input. Pickett absolutely seems like the kind of guy to play. But it makes very little sense for him to play so not sure what his conversations will be. He finished the season perfect for Pitt. I would think it leans towards him not playing, but that goes against who I think he is.
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I don't believe Pitt has been to a major bowl since the Marino era & they definitely haven't won 11 games since their 1982 Sugar Bowl win. I'd say Pickett plays. Personally, I don't understand most of the opt outs. Every season, coaches & players constantly lay down bullshit about team unity, overcoming adversity, playing for everyone in the locker room, ect, but that flies out the window when it comes down to $. I would think if these potential early round draft picks truly loved the sport, their teammates & the competition, they wouldn't bail on them assuming it's a major bowl & not some meaningless pre-Christmas game. Take out a loss of value insurance policy, so you don't have to go get a real job in a worse case scenario & go play.

Just read an article on pittsburghsportsnow.com in which Pickett confirms he plans on laying in the bowl game.
 
s--k said:
Lots of 6.5s on Ohio State now. I was surprised they opened it so high. Knew Utah would take lots of money at that level.
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I’ll let everyone bet utes then take osu if it gets cheaper maybe. Obvious concern is I know utes be thrilled to be there will osu care? It is the rose bowl after all! I don’t think utes have a chance if osu motivated, maybe I’m way off but I don’t think utes all that great, getting hot and beating bunch of crap pac12 teams doesn’t impress me much.
 
wiseplayer said:
Not sure how anyone can bet any games yet without knowing what these players are going to do.
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Totally understand this argument, but for me, it's the same risk analysis I use when I bet early lines in Week 1, no difference to me, as I weigh the calculated risk of each of my plays vs the benefit of hitting the line early, but again, totally get those who want to wait and see how the arrests, opt outs, etc play out in the meantime. No right or wrong of course, just different takes on it that's all. Best of luck this bowl season!
 
carolinablue said:
Totally understand this argument, but for me, it's the same risk analysis I use when I bet early lines in Week 1, no difference to me, as I weigh the calculated risk of each of my plays vs the benefit of hitting the line early, but again, totally get those who want to wait and see how the arrests, opt outs, etc play out in the meantime. No right or wrong of course, just different takes on it that's all. Best of luck this bowl season!
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Yep. I love Bowl season but it's most disappointing when I see coaches and players bailing on their team. It does however set it up nicely for Live ingame. If there's ever a time to pivot and wager differently, its after kickoff. GL!
 
dg84 said:
I don't believe Pitt has been to a major bowl since the Marino era & they definitely haven't won 11 games since their 1982 Sugar Bowl win.
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Lost to Alex Smith and the Utes in the Fiesta Bowl early to mid 2000s, scalped tickets for $25 and they ended up being stolen. Bowl was still at Sun Devil, fortunately security let us stay and stand in the concourse. Not really a memorable game other than that.
 
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