Bowls Discussion - Who to Fade - Who to Back - ETC

Coastal is still searching for their first and only bowl victory ever. I normally hate a team returning to the same bowl game in successive years, but in the case for Coastal, while playing NIU I'm sure seems like a slight to not get a bigger P5 or G5 opponent, the staff can likely sell that NIU is a G5 champion, something Coastal is not and they should want to win this game as it will be their first bowl win. Motivation wise, I figure it to be about equal. NIU will want to cap off this special season the right way and Coastal has never won a bowl game yet.
 
s--k said:
Coastal is still searching for their first and only bowl victory ever. I normally hate a team returning to the same bowl game in successive years, but in the case for Coastal, while playing NIU I'm sure seems like a slight to not get a bigger P5 or G5 opponent, the staff can likely sell that NIU is a G5 champion, something Coastal is not and they should want to win this game as it will be their first bowl win. Motivation wise, I figure it to be about equal. NIU will want to cap off this special season the right way and Coastal has never won a bowl game yet.
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if motivation equal there no chance i want Niu, kent st shot themselves in the foot all damn year so didnt really shock me they lost to a team with 0 defense despite having a strong offense on paper, i just cant see coastal having any problem scoring and it shouldnt be all that hard to get some stops against a niu team who pretty much as 1 dimensional as any team outside the service academies. .i cant bet any illinios teams anyway so guess it moot for me outside of confidence pools, lol.. .
 
s--k said:
Offense:

RT Harris LaChance lost to injury after game 4. His replacement, Campbell Barrington, lost to injury after game 10. Freshman Brayden Keim started the final two at RT. Keim is a former walk-on TE. Bowl 2-deep has Barrington "-or" Keim listed at RT. It was said that Barrington was injured in practice and could've been back for USC and LaChance was also close to returning at season's end although I don't think either did.

C James Empey was on and off field first half of season, was on crutches game 8. Team captain. Conner Pay has started the last 4, 5 total this year at C. Empey was said to be doubtful to play in the finale and is not listed on the bowl 2-deep.

WR Neil Pau'u was injured game 10 (#1 receiver in catches). Was said to be doubtful for finale. Samson Nacua and Keanu Hill have filled in. Pau'u is not listed on the bowl 2-deep.

WR Gunner Romney had missed 3 games, including the finale. He is listed a top one of the WR spots on the bowl 2-deep.

TE Issax Rex lost to injury for the year in game 12. Team high 12 TDs in 2020, not as big of a year 2021.


Defense:

CB Keenan Ellis - lost game 1 with head/neck injury, bad concussion, has not returned although at early in the season the injury was not believed to be season ending he was still suffering symptoms into October.

DL Every player but one who was listed as a starter for their 3 man DL at one point this year, 7 players are all listed on the 2-deep at various positions: Batty, Haws, Mahe, Summers, Tuoti-Mariner, Tanuvasa. Atleast 3 of those players missed time and went out of games due to injury this year. A very banged up unit across the board all season. Appears only Lorenzo Fauatea who was lost early to injury remains out for the year. And reserve Jacob Palu has dealt with a long term injury.

LB Keenan Pili - lost for season to injury game 3. Team captain, was leading tackler at time, was D player bowl MVP 2020 and had 12 career starts ("Pili was seen as a backbone of the defense"). Ben Bywater has since emerged at LB to lead the team in tackles.

LB Payton Wilgar - lost for season game 10, underwent season ending surgery (had been playing through pain). A team captain, 37 career games, 31 starts. Big time player.

It looks to me, that some of the mentioned players out a S or NB were shifted to a LB or hybrid-LB/S type position due to injuries at LB. BYU appears to play a lot of combos on the S and LB spots from week-to-week. If I guy didn't play defensive backfield S it might be because they choose that guy to play closer to the LOS this week at LB, or vise-versa.

The two LBs out Pili and Wilgar are enormous losses. They've had do deal with Pili almost all year, doesn't make it better and they still miss him badly. Wilgar is a newer loss they are having to deal with. From what I see and think I've read, those are really the only big concern as far as a position group. And then there is a trickle down effect of moving guys like Chaz Ah You or Hanneman from S to play LB and all the shifting that takes place. However one looks at it, Pili and Wilgar were just maybe the two best players on D period.

The DL I would think should be the healthiest they have been all year (minus Fauatea who hasn't played since game 5). Otherwise, I think all the names that should be in the 2-deep for the bowl are the ones that should be there if the 2-deep is accurate.

OL should be closer to full strength, but still minus the C Empey I assume.

The WRs Pau'u still looks out ,but Romney looks back.

That is about the best way I can break it down putting some pieces together. Those are some of the names atleast we can associate with the who and what.
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Impressive research. ...amazing their injuries have been so under the radar on a national scene that most ppl dont even know.

Uab has to be the play imo. Byu defense just isnt the same
 
2daBank said:
if you made me take one of them it would absolutely be Niu, kinda expect libirty to put together a really good game and light emu up. libirty biggest problem been they terrible at protecting willis, 127th in the country in sack rate allowed and that with him often escaping pressure! dont really think emu has the horses to get after the passer tho, seems like a real good game for Willis to shine and get bad taste out his mouth of a disappointing season.. Scary to back niu cause as mentioned that defense is redic bad but maybe they can control the tempo and keep ball away from a coastal team i doubt super pumped bout this bowl. i really dont like either but i trust nui to at least give me a shot to stay within the number.
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Yeah i dont love any of these early bowl games, except for wyoming which is a bummer, im tied for first right now in the golden nugget and not allowed to use tuesday games so cross that one off the list.

On northern.....yes possibility they get down multiple scores, but in each instance this year when that has happened they come back and make final score look close. against wyoming central mich and kent it happened. Only against michigan did they not cover this number. And ball state but they were looking ahead to the mac championship

Lombardi is a grinder, gritty, and tough. A great dog qb. Think he set the example for that team this year to be like him.
 
What's true about Coastal is the entire world watched them beat BYU last year when the Cougs picked up the game on a whim and we saw Coastal destroy them on the ground in a game Wilson didn't remotely do his thing then Appy St this year. Who are they?
 
wiseplayer said:
Lol. Funny shit but I’m reading it for sure. Hawaii Bowl is always on my parents deck overseeing a great view as the sun goes down in California. Family inside going nuts while I’m sipping on a scotch watching football outside.
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Sounds like the life.
 
I think they said during MAC Title game Lombardi is a wrestler. That's impressive. I've always like hearing when a DL or LB has a wrestling history. Don't think I ever heard a QB. Tough. Lombardi isn't great passer but I do think he is better than people sometimes have given credit for. NIU often chooses to be one-dimensional, but they can pass. Couple good receivers. Name to check for is if Richie can come back for the bowl. That would give them 3 legit good reviving targets
 
s--k said:
I think they said during MAC Title game Lombardi is a wrestler. That's impressive. I've always like hearing when a DL or LB has a wrestling history. Don't think I ever heard a QB. Tough. Lombardi isn't great passer but I do think he is better than people sometimes have given credit for. NIU often chooses to be one-dimensional, but they can pass. Couple good receivers. Name to check for is if Richie can come back for the bowl. That would give them 3 legit good reviving targets
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I think NIU defense is better than it’s #’s show.
 
THREE THINGS TO LOOK FOR



1. I Won’t Back Down. UAB leading rusher DeWayne McBride is set to return in the Independence Bowl following an injury suffered in the first half of the regular-season finale. The sophomore running back has 1,214 yards and 12 touchdowns this season and is the focal point of an offense that has the ability to control time of possession.
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www.al.com/uab/2021/12/blazer-buzz-uab-vs-byu-tv-info-key-matchups.html


Some evidence that McBride hopefully can play
 
s--k said:
I think they said during MAC Title game Lombardi is a wrestler. That's impressive. I've always like hearing when a DL or LB has a wrestling history. Don't think I ever heard a QB. Tough. Lombardi isn't great passer but I do think he is better than people sometimes have given credit for. NIU often chooses to be one-dimensional, but they can pass. Couple good receivers. Name to check for is if Richie can come back for the bowl. That would give them 3 legit good reviving targets
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How do you go from 0 wins last year to win the mac conference as one of youngest teams ? Rocky Lombardi is the biggest reason why. Think he's brought alot of leadership, toughness to this team. And he is an underrated thrower I agree. When they've had to throw it they can.
 
MAC bowl teams have lost all 14 times outright while going 3-11 against
the spread when playing as underdogs of 10 points or more, beaten by an
average of 23.7 ppg.
• Qualifying play: Against Northern Illinois
 
pressitup said:
MAC bowl teams have lost all 14 times outright while going 3-11 against
the spread when playing as underdogs of 10 points or more, beaten by an
average of 23.7 ppg.
• Qualifying play: Against Northern Illinois
Click to expand...
Underdogs have ruled in bowl games between MAC and Sun Belt teams,
going 9-7 SU and 13-3 ATS over the last 10 bowl seasons.
• Qualifying plays: Ball State, Northern Illinois
 
pressitup said:
MAC bowl teams have lost all 14 times outright while going 3-11 against
the spread when playing as underdogs of 10 points or more, beaten by an
average of 23.7 ppg.
• Qualifying play: Against Northern Illinois
Click to expand...

pressitup said:
Underdogs have ruled in bowl games between MAC and Sun Belt teams,
going 9-7 SU and 13-3 ATS over the last 10 bowl seasons.
• Qualifying plays: Ball State, Northern Illinois
Click to expand...

Trends against and on NIU that cancel each other out!
 
In December bowl games, independent teams are 23-12 SU and 22-13 ATS
since 2004.
• Qualifying plays: Army, BYU, Liberty
Against Group of 5 opponents, independents are on a 17-6 SU and 15-8 ATS
run in bowl games.
• Qualifying plays: BYU, Liberty
Alternatively, against Power 5 schools, independent teams are just 5-17 SU
and 7-15 ATS in bowl games since 1997.
• Qualifying plays: Against Army, Notre Dame
Independent teams are a nearly perfect 13-1 SU and 9-5 ATS as bowl game
favorites since 1994.
• Qualifying plays: Army, BYU, Liberty, Notre Dame
 
Tickets are now SOLD OUT. The UNT allotment is sold out but tickets can still be purchased through Toyota Stadium at www.friscofootballclassic.com
Click to expand...

Shouldn't come as a shock, but North Texas sold out their ticket allotment. Game is in Frisco, 40 minute drive from Denton (North Texas). Miami's tickets are not sold out.



As of 12/17:

Texas Tech had sold about 3,500 of its allotted 8,000 tickets for the Liberty Bowl as of late Thursday. The Big 12 absorbs the cost of unsold tickets, but Tech gets to keep half the revenue on all tickets it sells above 4,000.
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Old Dominion sounded like they had large crowd edge today. That didn't matter. Ticket sales can sometimes be a gauge of fan base enthusiasm with the bowl. Fan base enthusiasm could translate to team enthusiasm.
 

Will this Camellia Bowl come down to the wire?​

Since the Camellia Bowl began in 2014, no game has been decided by more than eight points. In fact, the average margin of victory in the seven previous iterations has been 4.57.

The first Camellia Bowl, a 33-28 Bowling Green victory over South Alabama in 2014, was decided on a 78-yard touchdown with 64 second left. The next year, Appalachian State beat Ohio, 31-29, on a last-second field goal.

In 2016, Appalachian State returned to beat Toledo, 31-28, in a back-and-forth affair. In 2018, Georgia Southern beat Eastern Michigan, 23-21, on a game-winning field goal. Last season, Buffalo scored a touchdown with 1:09 left to beat Marshall, 17-10.
Click to expand...
1640307201879.png
 
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