Bowl Write Ups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Every year I tell myself that I am going to get started earlier on capping the bowls, and every year I fail. Whatever...nobody wants to hear the "i'm busy" sob story...it happens to everyone.

The season ended on a sour note, as I went 3-5 during Championship Week. Overall record was 103-76 (.575). Not bad I guess.

Staying away from the New Mexico bowl. I have been cashing tickets all year on New Mexixo, but they are going to get scored on at will if Arizona shows up...just a terrible matchup for their defense. The Lobos should run wild on AZ too, but I'm not about to get stuck with only 7 when 12 was available at the open. Pass on that game.

Also passing on the Vegas Bowl. I would lean to BYU because Utah just isn't any good on offense without Booker. Also, Utah wants no part of this matchup. I just don't like trying to figure out what kind of effort BYU will put forth with Bronco Mendenhall taking off. Another pass.

I didn't really ever consider betting the Camelia Bowl. Appy State will probably win by 7. Ohio is a little better than people realize.

1. Georgia State +2.5 v San Jose State: Georgia State quietly had a very strong finish to their season, culminating in a stunning and completely dominating upset of Georgia Southern on the road to make them bowl eligible. They continued their great performance as a road dog, moving them to 8-1 in that role since they moved to FBS. Although they finished well, they really had been trnding in the rioght direction all year, playing solid football on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they went from a complete dumpster fire to a pretty competitive outfit, ranking 44th in overall yards per play. They'll be facing a San Jose State team that has a pretty good running game with RB Tyler Ervin, but not much else, and the Spartans didn't run the ball at all that great of a clip anyway. As for stopping the run, GSU is one week removed from completely shutting down a top 5 rushing attack in Georgia Southern (203 total yards, 3.1 yards per carry). On the flip side, GSU had a great year throwing the ball, sporting the 27th ranked pass offense in passer rating and the 32nd offense overall in yards per play. San Jose ended up 116th in defensive efficiency and 82nd in yards per play. This is GSU's first ever bowl game, so they'll be jacked to play, and they draw a 5-7 squad that can't be too excited about drawing a team that is only a couple years removed from the FCS. I think the wrong team is favored.

2. Arkansas State +2 v Louisiana Tech: The season long numbers in this game favor La Tech but these two teams have been going in different directions for awhile now. Arky State has been demolishing people for the past 2 months, including a thorough beating of Appy State at Appy State, a rare feat. Meanwhile, LT has had a couple of clunkers including getting whipsawed by Southern Miss on their home field in their finale. ASU has put up 48 points or more in 6 of their last 8 games, and in the other two they notched 40 and 37. You would think that LT would have played the tougher schedule, but C-USA is really no better than the Sun Belt, and several schedule rankings indicate that ASU played the tougher schedule. Motivationally, the Sun Belt usually plays very well in this bowl, as they seem to get matched up with teams that are somewhat underwhelmed by the competition. I think that might be the case in this one, as LT was matched up with a Big Ten squad last year in Illinois, and they might be less than enthused here. This is a good team they are playing...they'll get beat if they dont bring their A game.

I'll have more as we move along. Thanks as always for the feedback.
 
Hi Brass. Have a great bowl season.

I don't think you will ever have to worry about motivation when BYU plays Utah
 
GL on your plays. Love Georgia State. Pretty amazing story - from 2012 thru Nov. 7, 2015, they were 4-39 straight up. That's 4-39. But they won their last 4 this season including a big upset of Georgia Southern, 34-7. Win this game and they'd have a winning record for the season, which would be a hell of an achievement. I mentioned in a separate post about Nick Arbuckle's motivation in this game against SJSU and a big chip he seems to have on his shoulder.

As far as SJSU goes, they were sliding down the stretch and at 5-7 they're playing in this game because of their APR scores.



 
BYU/Utah is always a tough one and you are right that Utah wanted a better bowl. Any other team with their body of work would have been in a better bowl but ESPN wanted this bad.

I liken this to Utah/CSU last year. The LOS will determine this game and while Utah is banged up bad, both of their lines are light years ahead of byu's. The Utah DT's will have Mangum running for his life.

If retarded Travis Wilson doesn't show up, Utah rolls. If he thinks BYU's LB's are Utah players it will be a dog-fight.
 
Two Utes said:
BYU/Utah is always a tough one and you are right that Utah wanted a better bowl. Any other team with their body of work would have been in a better bowl but ESPN wanted this bad.

I liken this to Utah/CSU last year. The LOS will determine this game and while Utah is banged up bad, both of their lines are light years ahead of byu's. The Utah DT's will have Mangum running for his life.

If retarded Travis Wilson doesn't show up, Utah rolls. If he thinks BYU's LB's are Utah players it will be a dog-fight.
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Just defend the throw it up for grabs offense of byu ... that's all they got.
 
I think you touch on some really good points, Knux. I'm in complete agreement that season stats favor LT but both teams are heading in the opposite direction, and yes, LT had the weaker SOS even though they played in the overall stronger conference. LT had my 4th easiest ranked schedule, ARST 9th easiest.
 
Well, that didn't go well. 0 for 2.

As for tonight's game, I have a slight lean to USF, but really don't want to get in the way of this WKU juggernaut, given the explosion of points they laid on USM late in that CUSA title game that thwarted me on a game I thought was going to be in the win column.

I was completely off the grid this weekend with my oldest's hockey activity. Hoping to get a lot done here in the next couple days.
 
3. Toledo +2.5 v Temple: Both of these defenses are good, but I think Toledo seperates themselves in a couple of areas. First, they are ranked 9th in the country against the run, and that's certainly a problem for Temple, as the Owls MO is to run the ball a ton. On the flip side, a similar situations exists, but I think Toledo is much more apt to throw the ball effectively if their favorite mode of operation is bottled up, and I think at times therir running game has an ability to impose it's will on people when Hunt is healthy. That's not to say Temple isn't very strong on defense...they are. Overall, I think Temple is going to have a difficult time scoring against this Rocket defense. Toledo also went within for their next coach, so I don't think the coaching change will be a detriment for Toledo. Ill take the points with these guys.
 
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Good stuff...having a tough time on this game..even for contests...thanks for the insight....
 
Frank Costanza said:
GL on your plays. Love Georgia State. Pretty amazing story - from 2012 thru Nov. 7, 2015, they were 4-39 straight up. That's 4-39. But they won their last 4 this season including a big upset of Georgia Southern, 34-7. Win this game and they'd have a winning record for the season, which would be a hell of an achievement. I mentioned in a separate post about Nick Arbuckle's motivation in this game against SJSU and a big chip he seems to have on his shoulder.

As far as SJSU goes, they were sliding down the stretch and at 5-7 they're playing in this game because of their APR scores.



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Thanks so much for always hanging around Frank. I always enjoy and use your insight. Ga State kind of shit the bed for us in that one.
 
BULL...thanks my man. Appreciate your insight.

TSC: Arky State turned out to be anoter bed shitter. La Tech had their season high offensive output. I didn't see that coming, I must admit. Also, Gordon gettimg hurt really changed that game.

BAR: I think all these early games are tough ones. Hopefully this +2-2.5 dog comes through.
 
Ultimately I could not pull the trigger on it, because I wanted more than a TD, but I came very close to adding Akron. They are legit defensively,(3rd against the run!!) and Bowden had them playing like an upper echelon MAC team at the end of the year. Utah State is just not a good offensive team with Keaton under center, and it pains me to say that because he used to be so fun to watch. Without a Robert Turbin or Kerwynn Williams though, along with his injuries, he is just a shell of his former self. My problem with Akron though is that I don't kno how they are going to score, and they are kind of new to the bowl thing while USU is there every year. If I was a totals player I'd be all over the under too. I don't see this one getting out of the 30's without defensive scores.
 
Bowl total is now 1-2 after Toledo covered last night. Still kicking myself for not trusting myself on the Akron game. Oh well. Moving on:

4. NIU +10 v Boise State: Now that this line has climbed all the way to 10 in some circles, I am going to bite off on this one. NIU has been decimated by injury at the QB position, but it looks like Ryan Graham will be back for this one, which is a good thing because if the Freshman who played in the MAC title game was playing(and he might if Graham gets hurt) I wouldn't touch NIU with a 10 foot pole. As it stands, I kind of like the matchup for NIU, as they have been strong on defense all year and Boise has struggled in recent weeks offensively. I also don;t trust Boise as a big favorite given what they've produced this year in that role, including more than 1 outright loss when favored significantly. (New Mexico, anyone?) NIU has the edge in my opinion when they are on defense both in the run game and the pass game, and they have been opportunistic on defense while Boise has had some big time turnover problems against good defenses. If NIU can get some things going on offense, I think they will be good enough on defense to keep this one within the number.
 
5. Bowling Green -7 v Georgia Southern: I like Georgia Southern, and I've liked them all year long, but this is a matchup that worries me for them. They match up well against teams of their own size and skill level, but when stepping up(like in a bowl-type scenario), their best matchup is against a good D/poor O type squad (like Georgia, who they played to a standstill late in the season). In these cases, they can move the ball on the ground against most offenses, and they don't have to worry about playing catch-up against a squad that can light up the scoreboard. They obviously run the ball great, but they absolutely can't throw the ball to save their lives (128th in passer rating). If they can't run it, they are screwed. They should be ok against BG, but the Falcons aren't bad against the run(43rd overall) or on defense altogether (38th in overall yards per play). Offensively, they are among the most explosive passing teams in the country, and GSU hasn't played a bunch of teams that can throw it, and I'd say none in the class of BG. The closest team to BG in terms of passing ability is probably Georgia State, and they got lit up in that game. I just don't think the Eaagles are going to be able to trade scores with BG in this one, especially if BG gets some momentum in stopping the run. Bad weather is possible tonight in Mobile, but I doubt that will slow down the BG attack that much.
 
6. San Diego State -2 v Cincinnati: This line has recently moved from Cincy -2 to San Diego State -2, and I think that's with good reason because the wrong team was originally favored in this game. Apparently, some whale in Vegas felt the same because the 4 point line move isn't supported by public money, which is not that lopsided from what I can tell.I can however, see why some oddsmakers would be skeptical of favoring SDSU in this one. First of all, The Mountain West was very weak this year, and in some circles, SDSU's schedule is ranked as low as 125th in the country. They also struggled mightily while outside the MW this year, including a pretty severe beat down early in Happy Valley against Penn State. This however, is nothing new, as the Aztecs almost always start slow. Rocky Long is also only 2-7 ATS in his last 9 bowl games. Those two things would make me a bit skeptical to bet SDSU, but there is a mountain of evidence to peruse through that screams "BET SDSU!". First, once RB Donnell Pumprey(the nation's leading returning rusher coming into the year) got healthy, SDSU really took off. They are a balanced outfit, ranking in the mid 40's in offensive efficiency and overall yards per play, 28th in rushing (their bread and butter) and even 36th in passer rating, although they really don't throw it much and their usual starter Max Smith is out for this game with an injury. Cincinnati can move the ball, there's no doubt about that. QB Gunner Kiel is out for the game for what appears to be painkiller dependency, but their backup Hayden Moore was more than capable in his absence. The Bearcats' problem is on defense, where they rank 85th in overall efficiency and 91st in yards per play against. Worst for them, however, is their 113th rushing defense mark in yards per carry against. They simply cannot stop the run and this is the Aztecs primary strength. The most alarming thing about that number however, is that they really didn't play many solid rushing attacks this year. Of their 11 games against FBS competition, only 2 opponents ranked better than 82nd in rushing yards per carry. 5 of them ranked 105th or worse! The only team on their schedule whose rushing attack resembles SDSU's is South Florida, and they ran for 361 yards en route to a 65-27 thrashing. Defensively, SDSU is also solid, ranking 17th in overall yards per play, 35th in defensive efficiency, 4th in 3rd down conversions against, 24th against the pass and 9th in rush defense. They also have HUGE edges in special teams (6th best ST unit per Football Outsiders) and rank first in field position advantage(average starting FP vs their opponents starting FP). Cincy ranks 125th! Last thing: You can't handicap for turnovers, but this is about the most glaring edge I've ever seen in this category, and probably leads to the severe difference in field position. SDSU is #1 in turnover margin, while Cincy is #125. All this is more than enough for me to lay the short number on a 10 win squad.
 
Staying away from MTSU/WMU, though I had a lean to MTSU +5. WMU's defense is going to give up points to Middle, but I have a hard time seeing the Blue Raiders stopping Fleck's offense too. Just not confident enough though I think MTSU is going to have a lot of success on offense. I'd be on the over if I was a totals player.
 
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Sometimes, the best bet is the one not made......I love that saying, and it is so true.

GL Br@ss. CTG is much better when you are posting in CFB forum. I am glad I could persuade you to get back to posting a couple years back.....I think everyone else sees what you bring now.

Have a Merry Christmas and a prosperous NY!!! And hit your book....hard!!
 
Well......I am now 1-4 for the bowls and just recommended a team that was outgained 654-33. Step back and let that marinade for a minute....654-33 in total yards. How is that even possible in a bowl game?? Could that have been the worst curb stomping in bowl history?? I'd have to think so. I will forever be scarred by this experience. When I am sitting down to handicap bowls in 2035 approaching 65 years old, considering NIU in a bowl game, I will think back to this game and probably laugh at the proposition of backing them again.

So far....bad. The two games I seriously considered and backed off were both winners, and a third looks good right now. A few more like that debacle last night and I will probably save my bearth except for fading purposes!
 
7. UCONN +5 v Marshall: I think this is a game, like a few others coming up that represent some pretty significant differences in schedule strength. Conference USA was really a shitshow this year, with the likes of North Texas, UTSA, Texas State, UTEP, Old Dominion and Charlotte all among the consensus bottom 20 squads in the country. Marshall has some pretty good defensive numbers, but a heavy portion of their schedule was spent playing against these weak sisters, among others. Offensively, it's the same story, as they've played some awful defenses. One measure indicated that they played the 121st ranked run defense schedule and the 125th ranked scoring defenses. and despite that, they don't rank highly in any offensive area, and they rank downright terrible in several, including 105th in 3rd down conversions, and 87th in passer rating. They lost games this year to the likes of Ohio and Middle Tennessee, and UCONN will be by far the best defense they've played. UCONN has gotten consistently better as the year has gone on under Bob Diaco, culminating in an effort that saddled Houston with their first loss. If Marshall doesn't end up getting a ton of turnovers, I like UCONN's chance at the outright if they can continue their competent play on offense that was evident at the end of the year under QB Sherriffs.
 
8. Washington-8.5 v Southern Miss: I've liked Southern Miss all year, but the more I look at this game, the more I think they are going to be on the receiving end of a severe ass kicking. Like Marshall, USM spent the season beating up on some truly putrid teams. Their opponents ranked 123rd in scoring defense and dead last (128th) in passing defense....no wonder they had good numbers in the passing game. In contrast, Washington's schedule was brutal, having faced the 9th best pass offenses and 5th best scoring offenses. Despite that, they ranked 21st in passer rating against and 22nd in overall yards per play. Advanced metrics have them as the #1 defense in overall defensive efficiency. They will be dropping down in class so to speak in this one, while USM be facing by miles and miles the best defense they've seen all year. Washington is definitely on the upswing, and you'd have to assume that Todd Monken will be taught a lesson or two by Chris Peterson in his first bowl appearance. This one might get ugly by the time we get to the 4th quarter.
 
In my notes under Marshall I've written, they're a fraud on offense. Frosh QB actually has some potential to throw it but their play calling doesn't allow it. GL
 
Forgot one.....


9. Nebraska +7(-113) v UCLA: I realize that Nebraska is 5-7, and for that reason a lot of red flags pop up, but as long as they are motivated( a big if), based on their results this year, there's no reason why they can't stay with UCLA, a team that certainly has shown the ability to struggle with questionable teams when favored. Nebraska had at least 2 games that they actually won on the field, but craziness interfered, could easily have beaten Wisconsin and actually did beat Michigan State. They "stat out" surprisingly well, especially on 3rd down, where they have a major edge over the Bruins in my opinion. They also have a pretty sizable edge in special teams. These two teams are pretty evenly matched despite the records....I'll take a TD.
 
I wimped out on both Duke/Indiana and Washington State/Miami. I like both of the favorites for various reasons...Indiana because Duke can't stop a decent offense, which Indiana certainly has and Washington State because I think there's a good chance that Miami mails in their performance like they've done many times in the past, which would be death against a good Cougar squad. At the end of the day though, I really don't trust either of them in the favorite's role, and both Miami and Duke have been live dogs. Betting against David Cutcliffe doesn't really enthuse me either, in any role.

I also was tempted to take the 14 with Tulsa because VT struggles to score against just about everyone, but all of Tulsa's losses this year were by more than 10, and they didn't beat a decent team all year. Also, VT was actually competent when Michael Brewer was under center, and I don't trust that terrible Tulsa defense to stop anyone. Great backdoor potential nevertheless though.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. UCONN +5 v Marshall: I think this is a game, like a few others coming up that represent some pretty significant differences in schedule strength. Conference USA was really a shitshow this year, with the likes of North Texas, UTSA, Texas State, UTEP, Old Dominion and Charlotte all among the consensus bottom 20 squads in the country. Marshall has some pretty good defensive numbers, but a heavy portion of their schedule was spent playing against these weak sisters, among others. Offensively, it's the same story, as they've played some awful defenses. One measure indicated that they played the 121st ranked run defense schedule and the 125th ranked scoring defenses. and despite that, they don't rank highly in any offensive area, and they rank downright terrible in several, including 105th in 3rd down conversions, and 87th in passer rating. They lost games this year to the likes of Ohio and Middle Tennessee, and UCONN will be by far the best defense they've played. UCONN has gotten consistently better as the year has gone on under Bob Diaco, culminating in an effort that saddled Houston with their first loss. If Marshall doesn't end up getting a ton of turnovers, I like UCONN's chance at the outright if they can continue their competent play on offense that was evident at the end of the year under QB Sherriffs.
Click to expand...

Br@ssknux said:
8. Washington-8.5 v Southern Miss: I've liked Southern Miss all year, but the more I look at this game, the more I think they are going to be on the receiving end of a severe ass kicking. Like Marshall, USM spent the season beating up on some truly putrid teams. Their opponents ranked 123rd in scoring defense and dead last (128th) in passing defense....no wonder they had good numbers in the passing game. In contrast, Washington's schedule was brutal, having faced the 9th best pass offenses and 5th best scoring offenses. Despite that, they ranked 21st in passer rating against and 22nd in overall yards per play. Advanced metrics have them as the #1 defense in overall defensive efficiency. They will be dropping down in class so to speak in this one, while USM be facing by miles and miles the best defense they've seen all year. Washington is definitely on the upswing, and you'd have to assume that Todd Monken will be taught a lesson or two by Chris Peterson in his first bowl appearance. This one might get ugly by the time we get to the 4th quarter.
Click to expand...

Br@ssknux said:
Forgot one.....


9. Nebraska +7(-113) v UCLA: I realize that Nebraska is 5-7, and for that reason a lot of red flags pop up, but as long as they are motivated( a big if), based on their results this year, there's no reason why they can't stay with UCLA, a team that certainly has shown the ability to struggle with questionable teams when favored. Nebraska had at least 2 games that they actually won on the field, but craziness interfered, could easily have beaten Wisconsin and actually did beat Michigan State. They "stat out" surprisingly well, especially on 3rd down, where they have a major edge over the Bruins in my opinion. They also have a pretty sizable edge in special teams. These two teams are pretty evenly matched despite the records....I'll take a TD.
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Agree with you on everything. Think that this will turn out to be a tough game for Marshall against a good D. Think Washington blows Southern Miss out. GL to us
 
10. @Navy -3 v Pitt: I'm not going to make this one too complicated. Pitt has had a nice first season under Pat Narduzzi, but they've been fortunate all year, facing teams at the right time and getting a lot of breaks. While Pitt has had a nice year, Navy has had a great year, going 10-2 and settling in as one of the top 20 teams in the country by almost any measure. They are playing this game at home in what will be the swan song for probably the best player in Navy history not named Roger Staubach, Keenan Reynolds. I might be guilty of being sentimental, but I just can't see a non-resourceful program like Pitt knocking off Navy in this setting. Navy has some weakness against the passing game, and I think Tyler Boyd will be a handful for them, but I remain a skeptic of Nathan Peterman, so I don't see a ton of offensive competence coming from the Panthers here. In addition to that, Pitt is looking at the #3 offense in total efficiency in the Middies, and they gave up 370 yards rushing on 38 carries to the only option squad they faced this year (a Georgia Tech squad that was nowhere near firing on all cylinders). I think Navy will have their way with the Panthers and take care of business in their home stadium to cap off a great year.
 
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11. Central Michigan +5 v Minnesota: The Gophers come into this game at 5-7, qualifying for a bowl game based on their APR ranking. I certainly am not going to go against them solely based on their sub .500 record as I just cashed a ticket on one that looked very good (Nebraska last night), and San Jose State also got a win with a 5-7 record coming in. In this case, although Minnesota has faced a much tougher schedule than the Chips, I really rate these two teams as dead even. Minnesota's success is based largely on their solid defense, but this isn't a total shut down aggressive type defense, more like a bend but don't break type of squad that a solid passing attack like CMU can exploit. Offensively the Gophers aren't going to blow anyone off the field, and Head Coach Tracy Claeys agreed as he fired the offensive coordinator after the finale only to eventually find himself in a bowl game, which makes for a bit of a problem now. Minny has already already played two MAC teams who are pretty severely inferior to CMU and snuck by each of them by 3 at home, so I think there is definitely value with a motivated MAC squad looking to knock off a vulnerable power 5 squad.

 
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12. Air Force +7 v Cal: Whenever you are playing Cal, there's some fear that you'll never get off the field due to their passing prowess, but this team has really struggled down the stretch. They ended up 1-5 ATS in their last 6 and 2-5 overall after a hot start. The vibe in Berkeley is not good as Sonny Dykes has been clashing with the administration, leading him to interview with a couple other schools during the semester break. They also have been shaky all year on defense, especially against the run, where they rank 95th. Air Force has been solid on offense all year, ranking 12 in rushing and 21st in passer rating, so they will not be easy to get off the field themselves. Also, one of my favorite bowl trends is that Bowl underdogs who outrush their opponents cover at an over 80% clip, and when you adjust it for TD dogs or higher, the number goes up to almost 90%. I'll take the TD here with a team that out gained Boise by 150 yards at Boise only a few weeks ago against a team that figures to have al, kinds of trouble getting them off the field.
 
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As for the rest of the Tuesday night games, I really can't make a decision on any of them. I didn't even look at that Mountain West conference game because having a bowl game between two teams from the same conference is an abomination in my opinion. North Carolina seems like the right side since Coleman and Linwood Re also out for Baylor, but for some reason I can see the Bears rising up and playing an inspired game, so I'm just going to be an interested bystander on that one. The same goes for Texas Tech/LSU. It seems to be a logical candidate for a 58-37 type game in LSU's favor, but I can't seem to get a handle on what to expect from LSU's defense against that Texas Tech offense, and I do lend some credence to the fact that Tech was able to withstand Arkansas' rushing attack enough to grab a victory against the Hogs. I hate sitting out 3 consecutive games, but I think it's warranted in this case.
 
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