Bowl Write Ups and Hopefully Feedback
- Thread starter Br@ssknux
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Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
GL bro. Can't argue with them...and yes, that GT game doesn't bode well here.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
I'm in heavy fade mode on Baylor. They had big expectations and are now playing in a mid tier bowl, and on top of that without big weapons. I don't see much leadership from that team and that was painfully evident in the season finale against an abysmal Texas team, with a lot on the line in that game for Baylor. I just don't see them rising up to play an inspired game against an NC that feels it got screwed in the ACC title game and is also chasing its first 12-win season in school history. And such a big QB mismatch in this game. There's a reason Baylor re-directed Chris Johnson to WR at the beginning of this season, and that was with an embarrassment of depth already at that position.
Maybe Baylor rises up here and Johnson pulls a game out of his ass. I'll have to see it to believe it.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Best of luck on this play, probably sitting it out. Pitt did get gashed by Ga Tech, mostly in the 1H but they then settled in and held them to one TD in the 2nd half. And they've now had 3 weeks to prepare for the option, and the Pitt DC spent a good deal of time seeing the option in his time at the Citadel and Wofford. In season, that offense can be a bitch to prep for. But with all the bowl prep time, it can make a difference.
Anyway, GL on this.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
That was my thinking last season when I bet on Mississippi St against Ga Tech. Did not work out as planned
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Hope I'm wrong as I love what Navy does, and I have a fondness for any team still running the triple option.
I do think Navy got a big boost when Niumatalolo turned down BYU, that commitment may translate into good things and a good performance today.
I do think Navy got a big boost when Niumatalolo turned down BYU, that commitment may translate into good things and a good performance today.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
The one thing I think that distinguishes the service academy teams in bowls is their focus and discipline compared to other teams. I feel confident the Middies and Air Force will be focused, whereas I can question motivation levels for other teams. Now that can be offset by discrepancies in talent levels, but Navy has proven to be a tough out for years now against far superior talent.
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
This is exactly why you should be on Pitt, not Navy.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Not following you here Jimmy.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Totally agree...there's just fewer variables that you have to worry about when backing a service academy team. Also, I love watching them go about 11-13 on 3rd down. And 4-4 on 4th. That's fun.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
This is a great observation and you could see evidence of it in the game. Navy was on it. Great job on spelling Coach Ken's name right too. Impressive!
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Hmmmmm....reconsidering.....
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Sorry guys for the late post, but I've been laid up today with a migraine...just now feeling better after sleeping most of the day, or trying to. Back to back losses with CMU(who in my estimation played their worst game of the year and still almost found a way to win) and Air Force dropped me back under .500. Air Force moved the ball at will, but a couple bad turnovers and their complete inability to stop Jared Goff left that one with no chance at a cover. I thought their defense has a chance to play OK, but at the end of the day, their lack of many competent passing teams on their schedule skewed their passing defense stats quite a bit. The fact that they withstood MSU and Boise for the most part gave me some optimism, but they were completely overmatched by Cal's passing attack.
Somebody should make a run at Sonny Dykes. The dude knows what he's doing, but he's miserable at Cal from all reports.
Somebody should make a run at Sonny Dykes. The dude knows what he's doing, but he's miserable at Cal from all reports.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
13. Memphis +3.5(and also +5.5) v Auburn: This line keeps creeping up, and you might be able to even get 4 by tomorrow morning. Auburn comes into this game at 6-6 overall and only 3-9 against the spread. The really didn't distinguish themselves as being good at any one thing, they were mediocre on offense and mediocre in both phases on defense leading to a completely disappointing season. Memphis on the other hand had a great year, despite a 3 game losing streak to end the year, though they put forth a very inspiring effort as a dog on the road in Houston, losing by only a point. Their offense is strong, especially in the passing game where top draft candidate Paxton Lynch will be playing his last game almost certainly. They showed they can hang with very good SEC teams by virtue of their 13 point win at home against Ole Miss, so I would think they will have confidence knowing that they certainly can hang with a mediocre at best SEC team. Both offenses figure to have edges on the opposing defenses, but I have the edge much stronger for the Memphis offense over Auburn, than vice versa, especially on 3rd down where Memphis ranks 8th in the country, while Auburn is 108th in 3rd down conversions against. Auburn certainly played the tougher schedule, but the American is no joke either. There's some concern about HC Justin Fuente fleeing for Virginia Tech, but Auburn has their own issues with Muschamp taking off for South Carolina, who apparently couldn't resist the siren song of the possibilities of the glory days of Muschamp's tenure at Florida. Muschamp also brought a couple of Auburn's position coaches with him, so Auburn's defense will be somewhat on their own. At the end of the day, I'll take a FG+ with the better offense and undoubtedly the best player on the field against a defense that shouldn't cause him much problem
****Late edit...got this one at 5.5 45 mins ago. Added a couple units on it.
****Late edit...got this one at 5.5 45 mins ago. Added a couple units on it.
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Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Mississippi St -6.5 v NC State: As I handicap this game, the numbers tell me that these teams are pretty evenly matched which would lead me to be taking almost a TD with the dog, but I will not be fooled again by this NC State outfit. They went 7-5, but their 7 wins came against Troy, South Alabama, Old Dominion and Eastern Kentucky in the non-conference and BC, Wake and Syracuse in the conference season. Against the rest of their schedule, which consisted of all bowl teams, they went 0-5 and failed to cover any of them, and getting outgained by an average of 124 yards per game. Also, most of their success this year offensively came with RB Matt Dayes leading the charge, but he is out for the year. On the flip side, this will be Dak Prescott's last game at MSU. I've always found it advantageous to back the team with the best player on the field playing in his swan song, and that will certainly be the case with Prescott, who will leave Mississippi State as the best player in that school's history. I also expect a bounce back from he Bulldogs after they laid an egg in their bowl last year, and NC State seems like the perfect foil for them. One other interesting fact...when looking for backdoor possibilities for NC State, I noticed that they have not lost a game by fewer than 7 points since November of 2011, which is something like 21 games in a row. So chances are that if NC State doesn't win this game outright, they ain't coverin'.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
Thanks for all the insight all season, brass. These are not the ramblings of a man with a migraine.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Thanks Tip. A 5-7 bowl record would constitute the ramblings of a maniac though, I would assert. :cheers3:
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
15. Texas A&M +4.5 v Louisville: I have to admit that this is a bit of a hunch play, but I think A&M is going to rise up and play a good game. Both of the primary QBs used by the Aggies this year have transferred, most recently presumed bowl starter Kyler Murray, who decided to leave Kevin Sumlin and his teammates in the lurch a couple weeks ago soon after Kyle Allen also transferred because he assumed the job was Murray's. However, this might end up being a blessing in disguise because Murray takes with him a fair amount of drama that has plagued the Aggies all year, and 3rd stringer Jake Hubenak is no slouch, coming in as a highly recruited juco guy who threw for a million yards last year, so he's talented. The Aggies certainly have the supporting cast, and I remain a believer in Sumlin., so I wouldn't be surprised if Hubenak has a solid game. On the other side of the ball, the Aggies come in as surprisingly competent, actually ranking 14th in the country in defensive efficiency and 12th in passer rating against. Bobby Petrino hasn't had time yet to fashion a blockbuster offense at Louisville, so A&M figures to have the advantage in that matchup. Throw in the fact that A&M has a pretty significant edge in special teams and I'll take the 4.5. Louisville is solid defensively, but certainly nothing that A&M hasn't seen after playing the likes of Vandy, Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, etc.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Holding off on Wisconsin/USC although I was very close to pulling the trigger with the Badgers. Offensively, they are nowhere near the team they've been in recent years, especially running the ball, but USC has not been good on defense either, especially against the pass(90th), and it looks like Wisconsin will finally get Corey Clement back. Wisconsin's major strength has been their defense, which ranks 2nd in yards per play, 2nd in passer rating against and 4th against the run, but they played a week Big ten schedule so those numbers are probably a bit skewed. Nonetheless, it's a very good defense, and USC is very banged up on the offensive line. Also, Clay Helton fired half of his defensive staff, so they are in a bit of flux on that side of the ball and USC is returning to the same bowl they played in last year, which is never good for motivation purposes. At the end of the day though, I would love to see the Badgers win this game, so I don't want to jinx them as my picks have been somewhat of a kiss of death this season.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Hopefully you didn't. Bad read on my end. Baylor was interested in playing, which was very surprising. More surprising was the complete lack of physicality on NC's end. Baylor is strong up front, but this was also about NC being a paper tiger.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
LOL.. I didn't. I spent more time on that game this just about anything else and ended up doing nothing.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
16. Houston +7 v Florida State: I hesitate to back another American Conference team seeing as though they've all collectively shit the bed, but at some point, SOMEONE from that conference other than navy has to rise up and give a performance, right? If anyone is going to do it, it's going to be Houston in this situation. Advanced efficiency metrics (which adjust for opponent strength) indicate that these two teams are very evenly matched: Houston is 20th on offense while FSU is 27th, and they are 26th and 27th on defense respectively. The special teams are even, passing and running games are about even on a per carry basis...this is pretty much a dead heat statistically. So now we move to motivation, and Houston is definitiely jacked to be here, while I would have to say that the opposite is probably true for Florida State. After 2 years in the spotlight, they are now relegated to Noon on the undercard on the day of the big boys are playing for the title. I also have the better quarterback with Greg Ward, and FSU has shown a penchant of playing down to their competition, as close games with BC, Wake Forest and a loss to Georgia Tech would attest. Also, I think we have the rare bonus of one of these upstarts actually having the coach that brought them there around for the bowl game, as Tom Herman rebuffed the advances of the myriad of big time programs knocking on his door. He is a coach who makes a difference, as the demolitions of Alabama and Oregon last year were largely of his doing schematically. Houston is now healthy, and over the injuries to playmakers Ward and Farrow that cost them a perfect season and were the cause of some sporadic play late in the season. I think we'll finally see a high end performance from an America squad in this one.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
17. Clemson +4 v Oklahoma: I'm not going to overthink this one. I'm taking the points with the undefeated team who has done nothing but prove that they deserve to be in this spot all year. Prior to the playoff pairings being announced, I was pretty sure Oklahoma looked like the best team in the group, but the more I look at this game, I can't justify not taking 4 points with this Clemson squad. Both of these teams really don't have a weakness, they can throw or pass on offense and they can stop the run and run it effectively and they've proved that against great competition. The jury is still out a bit on Oklahoma's defense, as they have been fortunate to face a slew of backup QBs, most notably missing Seth Russell and Trevonne Boykin, and getting a banged up Mason Raymond in the Bedlam game. Also, one must remember that this OU squad was curb-stomped just last year in the Russel Athletic Bowl. Many might suggest that it's a perfect revenge situation, but I don't think so. Although Baker Mayfield represents a meteoric improvement over Trevor Knight, DeShaun Watson was also unavailable last year for Clemson, meaning the Tigers bludgeoned the Sooners using the underwhelming Cole Stoudt to do the heavy lifting. Watson will be by far the best QB they've faced, and the Clemson defense has played well all year as well. They look like a charmed team...I will certainly be taking more than a FG with them. As much as I like Oklahoma, this is a must take in my opinion.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
18. Michigan State +10 v Alabama: I've taken the road to ruin several times by fading Alabama this year, but this is another must take. Michigan State is 15-5 ATS as a dog since 2010, and 10-0-1 ATS and 8-3 straight up in their last 11 as a dog of 10 or fewer. Connor Cook is 34-4 as a starter, and has the receivers and the wherewithal to move the ball on an elite defense like Alabama's. Anyone who has watched Alabama over the past month or so knows that they are terrified of putting anything in the hands of Jake Coker, and they've cast their lot with Derrick Henry, giving him the Heisman Trophy in the process. MSU certainly is stout enough to stand up to Henry, as thy are ranked in the top 15 in the country in rush defense and have shut down excellent running attacks this year (Ohio State, one on par with Bama, was held to 86 yards on 29 carries. We should also remember that 2 very crucial members of the Bama defensive staff have moved on to Georgia, and although they will be coaching in the game, they certainly have not had their full attention on MSU. This is not the case for the Spartans, who have no lack of continuity whatsoever. They also had the added insult of seeing their coach's named referred to as "Mike Dantonio" on the cover of Sports Illustrated. I don't think Bama has the firepower on offense to run away with this game, and if anything, the Spartans have shown that they deserve every benefit of the doubt when catching points.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
19. Northwestern +8.5 v Tennessee: It would be just like Pat Fitzgerald to lay an egg in this game with the way the guy has terrorized me this year. I think I've gone against Fitzy something like 6 times this year, and with the exception of Michigan, he's thwarted me every time. I'm going with the Cats this time though. Make no mistake, however: I am a believer in this Tennessee team, who I think is arguably the second best team in the SEC, I just don't like them in this role. Say what you will about the Cats...QB Clayton Thorsen can't throw the ball, but they find a way to win games based on their defense and Justin Jackson running the ball. Northwestern is incredibly stingy in both phases on defense, so this figures to be a low scoring game. As a result, the points will be valuable, and I'm getting more than 8. I'll take my chances with those points and a defense that is likely to hold the Vols to 20 or less and a running game that will probably find some holes in the 55th ranked run defense.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
20. Iowa +6 v Stanford: I have seen more than 1 instance in the past couple of weeks where a talking head has said that Iowa doesn't belong on the same field with Stanford. While I would have no problemk with someone picking Stanford in this game, I do have a problem with the assertion that Iowa doesn't belong on the field with Stanford. This Iowa team is damn good...they were a half yard from being undefeated and playing in the national playoff. There is no offensive or defensive metric in which the Hawkeyes grade out poorly, which is more than I can say for Stanford. Although I think Stanford might have a slight edge over Iowa when Stanford has the ball, but the Cardinal are going to give up some points if Ferentz doesn't tie his guys' hands with conservative play. Stanford, as I've mentioned is ranked 69th in yards per play allowed, 80th(!!) against the run, and a mediocre 46th against the pass, hardly Stanford numbers we are used to. We should also remember that these two teams played a common opponent, Northwestern, both in Evanston. As everyone knows, Stanford was handled easily by the Cats, and outgained in the process by almost 100 yards while Iowa blew out the Wildcats 40-10, outgaining them by a 492-198 clip. Defensively, Iowa is ranked 20th against the run and 8th agaisnt the pass, a much stronger unit than Stanford while they have the 31st ranked efficiency offense in the country against a very shaky defense. I'll certainly take the 6 with the team is actually think might be the better one.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
21. Ole Miss -7 v Oklahoma State: Okie State was really exposed over the last 4-5 weeks of the season. They were run out of the stadium on defense by a couple of good offenses, and that is what they will face in Ole Miss on January 1. After starting the season well on defense, they just kept losing momentum, giving up yards in big chunks to Baylor(with Chris Johnson at the helm)as well as Oklahoma a couple weeks later. I am not a huge believer in mason Raymond, and certainly not in the Cowboys 107th ranked run offense. Offensively, Ole Miss can move the ball on anyone, so I think this one might get a bit ugly. also remember that Ole Miss turned in probably the least inspired effort of any bowl team last year when they were completedly humiliated by TCU in the Peach Bowl. I think this is a good matchup for them, and they'll be ready to play.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Sitting out ND/Ohio State. I love Notre Dame's offense, but their defense is ranked 75th against the run, and Elliott will be looking for some numbers. Normally, when you can back a team averaging 200 yards both in the run game and the pass game you're in good shape. I just worry about that run defense. If they can muster up a defense against Elliott, I think they win going away, but it's a tall order.
Also sitting out Michigan/Florida. I know Florida's offense is awful but give McElwain time, and he can fashion an attack. I also avoid Big Ten teams when favored over SEC teams.
Also sitting out Michigan/Florida. I know Florida's offense is awful but give McElwain time, and he can fashion an attack. I also avoid Big Ten teams when favored over SEC teams.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
great thread. lots in common. BOL the rest of the way.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Good luck on your plays today and as always appreciate the write ups. I just have this notion that FSU is going to hit UH with speed and athleticism that it hasn't seen, we'll see if / how UH handles it. Ward is still a (very much) under appreciated player, having went the same route that Boykin did from WR to QB. I do like the "Herman staying" angle for Houston, as I liked it for Coach Niamatalolo with the Navy play earlier this week. (Probably best to note that Herman is just sitting in wait for either the Texas or Texas A&M job, one of which is most certainly going to be open late next fall. That's another thread though.)
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Agree, indoors and a fast track.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Thanks Schrute and Frank for the thoughts. Yanks, DD, thanks for the kind words.
22. Penn State +6 v Georgia: Penn State has really burned me the last few weeks, partially because they played some good teams, but mostly because they aren't very good. Well, they aren't very good on offense. I'll give them some credit for their performance on defense, which was pretty solid all year. In this case, they are matched up with a Georgia team that hasn't been able to play any form of competent offense ever since Nick Chubb was lost for the year. They were so uninspiring down the stretch that Georgia's leadership found it necessary to shitcan Mark Richt. They also no longer have an offensive coordinator or a defensive coordinator, their interim head coach is the former receivers coach, and they have grad assistants in charge of position groups and involved in designing the game plan. If James Franklin and his merry men can't demonstrate that they have the schematic advantage in this one, they might as well just call it a career because it'll be all downhill from here. Georgia's defense is also very good, so the feckless Christian Hackenberg will certainly provide us with some head slapping moments, but believe it or not, he might be more likely to make a decent play than his counterpart, Grayson Lambert, or whomever Georgia decides to start at QB. Regardless, unless the defenses score multiple times, this is going to be a low scoring game, so I'll take the points against a favorite who can't score and has a bunch of 25 year olds running the show.
22. Penn State +6 v Georgia: Penn State has really burned me the last few weeks, partially because they played some good teams, but mostly because they aren't very good. Well, they aren't very good on offense. I'll give them some credit for their performance on defense, which was pretty solid all year. In this case, they are matched up with a Georgia team that hasn't been able to play any form of competent offense ever since Nick Chubb was lost for the year. They were so uninspiring down the stretch that Georgia's leadership found it necessary to shitcan Mark Richt. They also no longer have an offensive coordinator or a defensive coordinator, their interim head coach is the former receivers coach, and they have grad assistants in charge of position groups and involved in designing the game plan. If James Franklin and his merry men can't demonstrate that they have the schematic advantage in this one, they might as well just call it a career because it'll be all downhill from here. Georgia's defense is also very good, so the feckless Christian Hackenberg will certainly provide us with some head slapping moments, but believe it or not, he might be more likely to make a decent play than his counterpart, Grayson Lambert, or whomever Georgia decides to start at QB. Regardless, unless the defenses score multiple times, this is going to be a low scoring game, so I'll take the points against a favorite who can't score and has a bunch of 25 year olds running the show.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
23. Kansas State +13 v Arkansas: believe it or not, Kansas State is the biggest underdog in the bowl season. The normal platitudes about Bill Snyder being a magical mystical covering machine apply only in the regular season, and almost exclusively in conference games. In Bowl games, he is actually among the worst ATS coaches active today. Having said that though, I think there's value here. I can certainly understand why Arkansas is a significant favorite in this one because on paper. In addition to the Razorbacks having one of the most underrated QBs in the country in Brandon Allen, K State has been just atrocious, but they have played a monster schedule this year and have had to withstand a ton of injuries. Arkansas is good on offense and will certainly score a hefty amount of points, but K State doesn't look as bad when you use advanced metrics that account for competition. Arkansas however, checks in with the 101st ranked defense in overall efficiency, 103rd in passer rating against and 101st in 3rd down conversions against. It's hard to cover 13 when you are going to give up a bunch of points as well. K State has had some time to get healthy and Snyder has had some time to fashion a plan, so I think the Wildcats will be able to take advantage of the Razorbacks poor defense. Also, this game matches up the #1 special teams unit in the country (K State) against the 105th (Arkansas). I think K State will show up here and the Arkansas defense is a great candidate to give up backdoor scores even if it does get out of hand.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
24. TCU +7 v Oregon: Trevonne Boykin is yet another example of a college player who just can't seem to get on the field. It's mind boggling. All you have to do is be available for the game, and these idiots can't even accomplish that. They can't even just simply live their lives for 30 fucking days without finding themselves charged with a felony and ineligible to play in the bowl game. Here's all you have to do: 1. Wake up. 2 Breathe oxygen, eat food and drink liquids to sustain yourself. 3. Go to bed. 4. Repeat for 30 days. If you can manage to do that, you can play in the game. Does that seem so hard? Anyway, even without Boykin, whose suspension has moved the line 8.5 points, TCU should be able to score on this awful Oregon offense, who ranks no better than 90th in any defensive category. Oregon just gave up 52 points and almost 7 yards per carry to an Oregon State team that couldn't get a first down against a CYO opponent in its previous few games. Remember that TCU was a 2 point conversion away from knocking off Oklahoma in Norman without Boykin in November, and they still have playmakers at the receiver position and one of the more underrated runners in Aaron Green art RB to support backup QB Kohlhausen. Also, although I find Gary Patterson to be a jackass, he has won 7 of his last 9 bowl games and has a knack for firing up his guys when the chips are down against them.Patterson looks at games like this as program definers, and prepares with urgency. They'll fight to the end in this one.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Indeed. I need it. :shake:
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Great call on Clemson. I like your chances against Okie State tonight. Overrated team IMO.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
I haven't worked up the energy to compile the final bowl record..I'll do that soon, but I am going to take a pass on this game tonight.
Is it just me, or do they need to move this game up a bit so it commences before the first week of NFL playoff games? It just seems like a lot of momentum was lost. I would have scheduled it for last Thursday or something. That's just me though.
If someone put a gun to my head, I'd take the points with Clemson, because to me it seems like this is just their year, and they really don't have any discernible weaknesses like the rest of Alabama's victims. For example, MSU was poor against the pass all year. I underestimated just how bad, but Coker really made them look silly, and he looked downright competent. I have a feeling he won't find the sledding so easy against this Clemson defense.
Having said that, all Alabama does is crush my hopes and dreams with various defensive and special teams TDs when I bet against them, so I'll be sitting it out.
Is it just me, or do they need to move this game up a bit so it commences before the first week of NFL playoff games? It just seems like a lot of momentum was lost. I would have scheduled it for last Thursday or something. That's just me though.
If someone put a gun to my head, I'd take the points with Clemson, because to me it seems like this is just their year, and they really don't have any discernible weaknesses like the rest of Alabama's victims. For example, MSU was poor against the pass all year. I underestimated just how bad, but Coker really made them look silly, and he looked downright competent. I have a feeling he won't find the sledding so easy against this Clemson defense.
Having said that, all Alabama does is crush my hopes and dreams with various defensive and special teams TDs when I bet against them, so I'll be sitting it out.
