Bowl Season (Not Playoffs) Discussion Thread

s--k said:
Crazy. I know the news, but that is 10.5 point move from open?
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Yup, think so.

I think OU is going to jump all over Florida. I'm trying to figure out where the latter is incentivized to play this game on top of the personnel issues with the offense.
 
McElroy is downplaying the lack of name receivers for Gators. Saying this isn't like NFL timing routes, simple routes pitch and catch.
 
s--k said:
McElroy is downplaying the lack of name receivers for Gators. Saying this isn't like NFL timing routes, simple routes pitch and catch.
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I think McElroy is one of the best color guys in the business. But you don't lose your 4 favorite targets and not suffer quite a bit. Pitch and catch. Simple toss. Whatever. If nothing else, familiarity between a QB and his guys is crucial.
 
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Bowls:
Clawson at WF 3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS with 2 upset wins as +12 and +3 dog.

Chryst at Wisconsin 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, roles as favorite: covered 7.5 in 8 point win, covered 6.5 in 10 point win, lost -3 in 1 point loss.

2020:
Wake 6-2 ATS, 4-1 ATS as dog with 2 upset wins (UVA and VT)

Wisconsin 2-4 ATS as favorite, lost last 4 straight ATS as favorite with 3 upset losses.

Some yardage discrepancy:

Louisville outgained Wake 453-351 including 254-127 rushing yards in 21-45 loss.
UNC outgained Wake 742-606 including 192-177 rushing yards in 53-59 loss.
Wake outgained Cuse 438-221 including 188-79 rushing yards in 38-14 win.
VT outgained Wake 433-346 in 23-16 win.
Wake outgained UVA 483-420 in 40-23 win.

- WF badly outgained in their final two games, 1 close loss 1 bad loss. WF outgained in one of their upset wins.

Minnesota outgained Wisconsin 326-322, UW only outrushed them 175-146 in 20-17 OT in.
Iowa outgained Wisconsin 355-255 including 144-56 rushing yards in 7-28 loss.
Wisconsin outgained Indiana 342-217 including 140-87 rushing yards in 6-14 loss.
Wisconsin outgained Northwestern 366-253 including 136-24 rushing yards in 7-17 loss.

- Wisconsin outgained two of the opponents they lost to by over 100 yards each.
 
Sounds like Wake players and coaches are expecting better effort and execution in bowl than compared to LV game. Lack of practice and roster issues due to covid supposedly hampered them vs LV.

Wisconsin has played 3 December games.

WF has played 1 game in 45 days.
 
It's so hard to know what you'll get with Wisconsin.

Offensively, Mertz has a 56% completion percentage his last 5 games. That is after he hit a 95% rate the first game!

The RBs are down, sounds like Berger could play (Covid 12/11). He's the leading rusher with just 267 yards! Former walkon Groshek has been relied upon more and is just a few yards behind Berger for the lead spot. Weird.

Receivers aren't very good, other than their TE position. Some of their receivers have been in and out of the linuep unsure which combination they get on the field today.

Badger D is pretty good as always. That is probably where concern for WF comes from and where Wisconsin can hang their hat.

Wake is vulnerable to sacks and negative plays behind the LOS.

Hartman is going to have to have a really really good game and definitely a clean game. He normally doesn't throw picks, that will be imperative to continue today. Feel like WF can have success passing if their OL and pass protection holds up. Iowa and Min combined for 275y rushing on UW...so their is hope that WF could run as well, again if the OL is strong enough.

10 is a big number. Wonder why the jump from 7? Mertz is playing...was there question earlier maybe he wasn't (injured in last game vs Min)?

I feel like Wisconsin has been over-valued and over-respected all year and looks like it is continuing here for the bowl. 10 would appear like a ridiculous number for a team that hasn't covered a game as a favorite since 11/14, 0-4 ATS since.

No UW opt outs I see. One of their backup QBs transfering, but the other guy finished off the Axe game.

WF will be without #2 RB Walker and super edge rusher Boogie Basham after he opted out. Those were known for a while, I don't see anything new.
 
Even in the games were Wisconsin outgained Indiana and Northwestern, their offensive issues to sustain drives between the 30s (like vs NW) and their inability to score in the RZ (like vs IU) were the difference.

WF on paper has softer D, might allow for more success from Badger O.

Just saying that while Wisconsin outgained NW and IU by 100 yards each, it isn't like watching it live you got a feeling like they were really that much better.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Todd Fuhrman talking this morning that Trask may only see a few series and UF may look at this as more a spring-game type scenario.

Interesting.
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That would definitely impact the spread!

So I wonder if Mullen is thinking that Florida can't win? Rather than trying and getting embarrassed just use the game for tryouts of sorts and when you lose by 20+ you have a built in excuse? He doesn't seem like the type who wouldn't put his best foot forward, but then again, he is a weird dude as well.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Todd Fuhrman talking this morning that Trask may only see a few series and UF may look at this as more a spring-game type scenario.

Interesting.
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guess that explains it. Weak. What they scared to see if they better than big12 best? I don’t think they are. Sooners been playing better defense than we typically see from them.
 
2daBank said:
that one tough. Ville crappy defense all but shut wake down last time I saw them, gotta think if ville can do it wiscy probably will too, right?
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I think the Louisville game is an exception. Wisconsin D is much better, granted.

Reading this morning, Wake Forest had multiple November games canceled and their own covid outbreak leading up to the LV game. I don't know what the news was game week leading into LV game, but Clawson talking about how good the bowl prep has been implied they barely practiced the week of LV.

So while Wisconsin D might have a good game, it won't be for anything we saw happen in the Louisville game I don't believe.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Doesn't seem far fetched to me....we'll see.
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I told myself to grab sooners-3 yesterday too. Now im kicking myself but really havnt been playing any these early, between late opt outs and Rona looming over everyone don’t wanna get stuck on other side one these bad lines.
 
2daBank said:
I told myself to grab sooners-3 yesterday too. Now im kicking myself but really havnt been playing any these early, between late opt outs and Rona looming over everyone don’t wanna get stuck on other side one these bad lines.
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Way too many things up in the air.
 
Clawson quote from week of Louisville game:

“We’re not in game shape right now,” Clawson said Tuesday. “We’ll see how it goes.”
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And after the game:

“I thought our guys looked tired. When we had any extended drive, once we got past the sixth or seventh play, we just looked tired,” Clawson said. “We didn’t look like we had our legs and how can you?”
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He answered his own question with what came next:

“You haven’t played in a month and we went about two weeks there without practicing. So we’re just, we’re not in — we fell out of football shape and that’s just the battle with COVID.”
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s--k said:
I think the Louisville game is an exception. Wisconsin D is much better, granted.

Reading this morning, Wake Forest had multiple November games canceled and their own covid outbreak leading up to the LV game. I don't know what the news was game week leading into LV game, but Clawson talking about how good the bowl prep has been implied they barely practiced the week of LV.

So while Wisconsin D might have a good game, it won't be for anything we saw happen in the Louisville game I don't believe.
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I do recall worrying bout playing the wake/ville game cause neither had played hardly any leading into that one. So that a fair assumption. Wake has only played 1 game since middle of November tho (the aforementioned ville game), I gotta worry they once again might struggle establishing a offensive rhythm vs a solid defense. I have no idea what we get from wiscy offense? They averaging 10 points a game their last 4! Don’t have their typical bell cow back and seem dependent on that freshman qb who really hadn’t been good since the opening game.
 
s--k said:
Clawson quote from week of Louisville game:



And after the game:
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my concern would obviously be are the in any better shape now? I suppose they been able to at least practice regularly since the ville game? Fsu was cancelled following week but that was a fsu problem not wake correct?
 
Yeah.

Safe assumption is that Wisconsin will score more points than they did vs Iowa, Indiana and Northwestern. But then again, they didn't exactly cut through the Minnesota D as other teams this year have either. Mertz started slow in that one then left with injury and Groshek was the only RB they had for that game.

Total implies a 31-20 type game. So Badgers going to get 30?

I think Wake can move it if their OL holds up. Wake's D vs a typical Wisconsin O would be worrisome, but this year? UW will have success, just don't know how much.

Yes, their FSU game cancelation was due to FSU issues.

Sounds like Wake's practice for the bowl has been good, normal. The looming question is just not playing a live game against a tough opponent- the rust and if you have it the consequences.
 
s--k said:
Yeah.

Safe assumption is that Wisconsin will score more points than they did vs Iowa, Indiana and Northwestern. But then again, they didn't exactly cut through the Minnesota D as other teams this year have either. Mertz started slow in that one then left with injury and Groshek was the only RB they had for that game.

Total implies a 31-20 type game. So Badgers going to get 30?

I think Wake can move it if their OL holds up. Wake's D vs a typical Wisconsin O would be worrisome, but this year? UW will have success, just don't know how much.

Yes, their FSU game cancelation was due to FSU issues.

Sounds like Wake's practice for the bowl has been good, normal. The looming question is just not playing a live game against a tough opponent- the rust and if you have it the consequences.
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if I recall correctly wake actually started the ville game looking decent and got progressively worse as the half went on, by halftime they didn’t seem to have legs under them. Hartman was about as bad as I’d seen him after looking fantastic vs unc.
 
If week 1 Wisconsin shows up...but that was vs Illinois...who should've been better. But stars and planets aligned for UW O that night.

Seem to remember the Wisconsin O production vs Michigan was more UM O inefficiency and handing UW the ball at spots on the field to set Badgers up for points.
 
s--k said:
Your memory is 100% accurate.

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i remember early on thinking the over had no freaking shot cause ville offense couldn’t do anything for real (just read they didn’t get a 1st down on their 1st 5 drives so that was correct!). I dunno if that was a product of wake defense or ville shaking off rust? I don’t believe ville had played much coming into that game either plus the week coming into that game all the rumors flying around bout satterfield possibly talking to South Carolina.
 
s--k said:
So...I am going to play Wake. That isn't a really tough decision for me. But for how much and exactly in what ways is still difficult.
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think I agree, if we get wake’s best effort 10 seems several points too high to me. I like that better than the total. Certainly not big tho.
 
OL and DL are always the best units for Wisconsin. DE Loudermilk and RG Bruss are two of their better ones though that sounds like are out.
 
s--k said:
OL and DL are always the best units for Wisconsin. DE Loudermilk and RG Bruss are two of their better ones though that sounds like are out.
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the amount Hartman has been sacked is def one the bigger concerns. Well getting worked at both LOS obviously. Wiscy not posting a impressive sack rate this year. Hartman almost never turns it over which good, I think vs ville was 1st pick he had thrown all season! On the other hand mertz has thrown some picks and wake 16th in the country getting them.
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1344319264895938560

Unsure if they are implying that some Safeties/Rovers are unavailable for WF so they are listing the ones that are?

In terms of the OL out, they indicate the guy replacing him is more than adequate.

Their kicker not in pads? Maybe it was early? Sciba is very good kicker. I don't know.
 
Guess no surprise but wiscy been dominating TOP this year. I know this somewhat a product of big10 but teams only averaging 23 minutes and 57 plays a game vs them. Surely the defense should see more plays ran against them today, if wake can keep them from grinding out the clock.
 
twitter had a stat that last 2 seasons WF is 7-0 when winning TOP and 5-9 when losing it.

Hard to see them winning TOP given opponent today.
 
s--k said:
twitter had a stat that last 2 seasons WF is 7-0 when winning TOP and 5-9 when losing it.

Hard to see them winning TOP given opponent today.
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yea I see little to no chance of that. I’m assuming that straight up not ats tho?
 
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