Sat
early 11am game
Connecticut vs Marshall - St. Petersburg Bowl - Tropicana Field - St. Petersburg, FL
226 Marshall* -2½ -140 vs Connecticut x1
225 Connecticut/Marshall* Under 45 -122 x2
I think the side is a tossup but actually like the under a bit.UConn has played a tougher schedule, but Marshall has the better offense (32.6 PPG to 17.7 PPG) and has allowed fewer points (18.4 PPG to 19.7 PPG) and I think the better all around tm.Both teams have some injuries to contend with, but UConn should have the services of both probable offensive players QB Shirreffs (head) and WR Lemelle (lower body), but LB Walsh (knee) is questionable. For the Herd, three players are facing a possible suspension in WR Beal and LBs Houston and Huskey.
UCons offense has been bad all season with 17.7 PPG and 318 total YPG, but it has been even worse recently with 10.0 PPG and 227 total YPG (3.9 yards per play) over the past three games. The Huskies choose the run the football 58% of the time, and are able to eat up 31:17 of clock per game.But they have averaged only 125 rushing YPG on 3.4 YPC this season, including 100 YPG on 3.0 YPC away from home. The passing game has posted a respectable 194 YPG on 7.2 YPA, but those numbers drop to 154 YPG on 5.8 YPA in non-home games.The Huskies are playing in a bowl because of their top-notch defense that limits opponents to 19.7 PPG and 352 total YPG. In the past three games, these numbers have improved to 15.7 PPG and 260 total YPG (4.0 yards per play).The pass defense is especially strong in holding teams to 187 YPG and 6.1 YPA, but the run defense has been too generous this season in giving up 165 YPG on 4.5 YPC. UConn is a team that thrives off turnovers, tallying 16 takeaways during its six wins and only eight takeaways in its six defeats. With the Herd committing multiple turnovers on seven different occasions this year, ball protection will be of utmost importance on Saturday.
Marshall produces big offensive numbers (32.6 PPG on 400 total YPG) with a nearly perfect balance of 38 rushes per game and 36 passes per contest. This leads to 168 YPG on 4.5 YPC on the ground and 231 YPG on 6.4 YPA through the air. The Herd are also balanced on their roster, as no player has reached 700 yards from scrimmage this season, but eight players have gained more than 300 yards. Marshall has a very sound defense that allows only 18.4 PPG and 371 total YPG. The secondary has given up 200 passing YPG, but on a mere 49.7% completion rate and 5.5 YPA. Although the run-stop unit allows 172 rushing YPG on 4.0 YPC, those numbers have fallen to 144 YPG on 3.6 YPC in the past two games.
The Herd have also produced at least one turnover in all 12 games, including multiple takeaways on seven different occasions. However, UConn has two turnovers or less in all 12 of its contests.
I think this is a low scoring 7 pt win for the Herd something like 21-17
