berryhorse tracker

Wager...kinda liked these anyways...guess I'll ride with horse one more day. $5 units
  1. 8/6/2018 8:05 PM MLB Baseball 962 Texas Rangers* +113 vs Seattle Mariners
    W LeBlanc - L Listed M Perez - L Listed
    Risking $28.40 To Win $32.09
  2. 8/6/2018 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 964 Chicago White Sox* +171 vs New York Yankees
    L Lynn - R Listed D Covey - R Listed
    Risking $28.20 To Win $48.22
 
To be fair he uses Pinnacle lines, here's the movement

08/06 06:18 PM -200 +183
08/06 06:16 PM -195 +179
08/06 05:58 PM -202 +185
08/06 05:35 PM -207 +190
08/06 05:34 PM -205 +188
08/06 09:30 AM -190 +174
08/06 08:51 AM -188 +173
08/05 09:32 PM -196 +180
08/05 02:42 PM -200 +183
08/05 02:41 PM -191 +175
08/05 02:12 PM -190 +174
 
Just going to throw this out there but I believe this system is VERY much in line with Joe Peta's system he writes about in his book, Trading Bases.
 
It was +185 on 5D when he posted. He also said awhile back that he never plays KC or BAL, but when they qualify on his model he puts them out there
 
View attachment 33987

6-11 in August...maybe this idea is circling the drain. I'm giving it one last chance to regain positive flow.

7c3dbd8e-722e-49ef-adef-abde9be6ce4a.png
 
I don’t think that’s gonna be a winner long term guys.

Yes, baseball is about value but teams still need to win.

Projected win % sources like 538 and accuscore and other places are out there but just comparing them to a line alone I don’t think will be +EV

Linesmakers have the ability to set the lines at whatever they want. A lot of the lines are set off anlot of the same statistics that those sources use, but they also weigh in line up changes and most importantly, public perception.

IF they deem a spot to be public, they can manipulate the line so you actually have to pay more than what you should. For the contrarian teams that they deem to have a legit chance to win, they can manipulate the line so that you win less and get the favorite at a cheaper price. Doing this they’re actually able to not only sway people into the side that they want to which would be the favorite and For the contrarians and often sharps, they don’t have to pay as much on the dog when or if they lose.

Bottom line is, linesmakers are too smart. In my opinion you should be looking for the most “offlines”
 
Last edited:
Can't disagree with any of that HonestD. However to his credit, he may just not be in the flow of things since he's been on the road a lot. Maybe he's been distracted.
 
I’m just talking about the foundation of the system in general. I’ve tried the exact same thing and the teams getting all the value didn’t win nearly enough to net any money. Maybe my sources who were giving me the projected win % sucked but with my knowledge about lines and betting, linesmakers will use all thei sources, many of which we don’t have access to, to set lines off from where we think they should be and clean house like they have basically forever.

What makes it the hardest is that linesmakers are professionals in “adjusting”. What may work this week or month may not work the next.
 
In a way his model pretects vs line adj in that it only values games based on where the line is. Like KC LN, he clearly stated it wasn't a play under +190 and none of us seen anything over 185 so I could have left that one off. I know oddsmakers are very shrewd and any system has a shelf life from when it starts till the book crushes it.
 
mrpickem said:
In a way his model pretects vs line adj in that it only values games based on where the line is. Like KC LN, he clearly stated it wasn't a play under +190 and none of us seen anything over 185 so I could have left that one off. I know oddsmakers are very shrewd and any system has a shelf life from when it starts till the book crushes it.
Click to expand...

Right.

Isn’t hoping for that kind of move contrary to what you want to see? I want the line going down not up.
 
HonestD said:
Right.

Isn’t hoping for that kind of move contrary to what you want to see? I want the line going down not up.
Click to expand...

I thought your angle was to play games where the line keeps moving in one direction the whole time and getting the worse odds near gametime?

I don't mind odds going up if it gets me off a loser ;) I do fade the public at times and I even play contrarian too mostly on FB. Just trying to grind with bases.

:shake:
 
HonestD said:
I don’t think that’s gonna be a winner long term guys.

Yes, baseball is about value but teams still need to win.

Projected win % sources like 538 and accuscore and other places are out there but just comparing them to a line alone I don’t think will be +EV

Linesmakers have the ability to set the lines at whatever they want. A lot of the lines are set off anlot of the same statistics that those sources use, but they also weigh in line up changes and most importantly, public perception.

IF they deem a spot to be public, they can manipulate the line so you actually have to pay more than what you should. For the contrarian teams that they deem to have a legit chance to win, they can manipulate the line so that you win less and get the favorite at a cheaper price. Doing this they’re actually able to not only sway people into the side that they want to which would be the favorite and For the contrarians and often sharps, they don’t have to pay as much on the dog when or if they lose.

Bottom line is, linesmakers are too smart. In my opinion you should be looking for the most “offlines”
Click to expand...

I disagree HonestD. I think you impugn to much respect to the bookmaker. Berry is having a good year, yall just decided to ride late. It's a long race and he has done fine.

No need to tail if you are not feeling it but the info is strong and should be beneficial in comparing your own thoughts on a matchup.

The only holy grail in MLB is the consistant grind. Tailing a person can suck the energy right out of you.
 
I hear ya Johnny, I've had 2 good days in a row, but pissed away 0-4 tailing this guy...albeit only around half my normal play...it stings so much worse when you tail someone than if you pick your own loser. I did like chisox some yesterday but just didn't have nads to fire it in...I did blind tail Tex as that was nothing to me
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
I disagree HonestD. I think you impugn to much respect to the bookmaker. Berry is having a good year, yall just decided to ride late. It's a long race and he has done fine.

No need to tail if you are not feeling it but the info is strong and should be beneficial in comparing your own thoughts on a matchup.

The only holy grail in MLB is the consistant grind. Tailing a person can suck the energy right out of you.
Click to expand...

I honestly had no idea on the current status of the system. I’m just speaking from personal experience doing the same thing.

I agree, it’s a grind for sure.
 
Well I got better odds at least ;)
8/7/2018 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 922 Chicago White Sox* +183 vs New York Yankees
C Sabathia - L Listed R Lopez - R Listed
Risking $28.50 To Win $52.16
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
I disagree HonestD. I think you impugn to much respect to the bookmaker. Berry is having a good year, yall just decided to ride late. It's a long race and he has done fine.

No need to tail if you are not feeling it but the info is strong and should be beneficial in comparing your own thoughts on a matchup.

The only holy grail in MLB is the consistant grind. Tailing a person can suck the energy right out of you.
Click to expand...

No clue if it same for him in previous years but all the money I make at mlb comes in the 1st half (sometimes in playoffs I do ok).
 
CHW R.Lopez 0-4 7.72 ERA last four starts. Don’t see why the bleeding stops tonight. I’ll pass again.
 
Inspekdah said:
His system looks like it will collapse late in the year. He’s overvaluing tankers
Click to expand...

Agreed!

I have seen quite a few successful systems early to mid-season in baseball and hoops, but once its clear who is out, they tend to fail.
 
The only angle I see is that the Yanks have never seen him which is normally advantage pitcher. I don’t know if it matters when you’re this bad though.
 
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