berryhorse tracker

Once again better odds from Tony than Pinny
8/7/2018 10:05 PM MLB Baseball 923 Detroit Tigers* +188 vs Los Angeles Angels
J Turner - R Listed A Heaney - L Listed
Risking $33.30 To Win $62.60
 
Nope not seeing this one either. Heaney is a gamer. Almost died laughing looking at the Tigers line up. Stranger things have happened I guess.
 
I will continue to pay attention until the end still interested. Though I hope he takes some of these losses as a learning experience to make some adjustments.
 
It's typical degeneration nation, can't handle a system meant for the big picture when they get involved at the wrong time. No different than buying stock high points, you can pick those people out from a mile away.

It's an interesting follow. I'd never tail a system but it's fascinating and it's better than most I've probably ever seen as it's used as a value base and line prediction, something I'm not only not all that interested in, but not good at. I'm probably 95% situational, not power numbers.

Bailing on a long-term based system even after a bad month or two is a great way to lose money though...again, see: every market anywhere
 
For the SF Giants on the 5th, what did he have as the projected win% for the Giants?

538 had a win probability of 42%, and I know that line stayed 3-5% lower than that. That would have been deemed a value game from 538's standpoint.
 
I've literally done this exact same thing. I was using 538 and paying $150 a month for accuscore and averaging the two win probabilities for my base win projections.

That's the biggest factor in my opinion. If that's off, than your whole system is off.
 
for that 3% value edge, you better be betting every game you're supposed to otherwise you might miss that rare instance that the game wins. That'll skew the system more than anything else.
 
Again I've no skin in this but why should the guy be concerned? Because losing gamblers everywhere over the last week are gonna hunt him down and fillet him?

Financial advisors all over the place would be jumping off balconies all the time lol

Same people check their 401k balances daily and question why they invest when it loses one week, that's assuming they can even save money in the first place
 
KJ said:
Again I've no skin in this but why should the guy be concerned? Because losing gamblers everywhere over the last week are gonna hunt him down and fillet him?

Financial advisors all over the place would be jumping off balconies all the time lol

Same people check their 401k balances daily and question why they invest when it loses one week, that's assuming they can even save money in the first place
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I was under the impression he was talking about his system rebounding?
 
Guy just bets against streaks and trends when his numbers say to do so. This run is getting on epic bad level
 
Truthfully, the only reason I actually consider taking them tnite is because looking at that game I see absolutely no way they can beat Severino. And with that... usually comes the opposite
 
T-Rex said:
Truthfully, the only reason I actually consider taking them tnite is because looking at that game I see absolutely no way they can beat Severino. And with that... usually comes the opposite
Click to expand...
He's 24 yrs old, Aug/Sept seem like a great time to fade him at ridiculous numbers imo
 
See a ton of angry bettors. This guy has never once asked you to tail him or promote. He has never ran his mouth to say he’s some wiz kid. In fact the model he uses was developed by someone else years ago- if you’re mad get mad at Joe Peta who developed this strategy.
 
peelpub94 said:
See a ton of angry bettors. This guy has never once asked you to tail him or promote. He has never ran his mouth to say he’s some wiz kid. In fact the model he uses was developed by someone else years ago- if you’re mad get mad at Joe Peta who developed this strategy.
Click to expand...

But others might tail and promote. I see a lot of immature responses on his feed, sure. But this is an unaffiliated thread and his system is going to crap. The worst thing you can do is go against a streak in baseball and he does it constantly. He could use some tweaks, for sure.

So there’s really nothing wrong with skepticism in this thread. No one is disrespecting him. Although, I will say this. I thought the dude was a genius black stoner a week ago. Then I saw his unfortunate picture at a track.... and then he lost about 50 units. #perception
 
peelpub94 said:
See a ton of angry bettors. This guy has never once asked you to tail him or promote. He has never ran his mouth to say he’s some wiz kid. In fact the model he uses was developed by someone else years ago- if you’re mad get mad at Joe Peta who developed this strategy.
Click to expand...

And a lot of lurkers come in here and tail when they see something like this... so it’s always good to reveal the current status of things. He’s lost his last 3 bets by almost 20 runs.
 
Inspekdah said:
And a lot of lurkers come in here and tail when they see something like this... so it’s always good to reveal the current status of things. He’s lost his last 3 bets by almost 20 runs.
Click to expand...

Over the course of an entire season (328 bets to date) it's almost nothing in the grand scheme. Hard to say his system is going to crap over a week stretch. The core of the model is the value you can accumulate over 162 games. Once again, he is using the model created by Joe Peta that uses SIERA, WAR and a few other sabermetrics to predict an edge in value. My only concern is, the model is at least 10 years old now and it's not like Vegas isn't using the same metrics to derive their own valuation of a team. I think this is where he's starting to get hurt. With 7 weeks left in the season there is more than enough time to recoup a stretch like this with a few adjustments.

I've listened to all his podcasts (SportsThoughts) and one thing that did bother me is that he explicitly stated he does not account for bullpen usage and a few other "situational" angles. I think he absolutely needs to consider applying some weight to this with the bullpen game becoming one of the most strategic parts of baseball today.

Once again, I have no sympathy for blind faith tailing or anyone else getting angry at the guy. It may not be all in this thread but Twitter is one hell of an ugly place. I want to encourage guys like Berry to share his thoughts and perception not discourage.
 
Last edited:
Well, I guess I'm sorry for bringing this guy to ctg...but really if you tailed him blindly, it's on no one but yourself. I introduced his model for informational purposes only. :tease:

His record on the season is still incredible, but he is 10-19 -55 units since I brought it to ctg on 7/29

For anyone who cares...here's the whole sheet(really went to shit L4 days going 1-11)

View attachment 34027
 
Very nice!

Thank you for the definition. Can you please give me the language of origin?

J/k. Thanks for the sheet.
 
I appreciate you bringing this system in. This guy's system is built for a marathon. He is working off of very small margins to try and gain a slight advantage on the Odds. It's the type of system that IF someone wants to blindly follow, they must play every single pick, every single day. The system can't be looked at over the course of 1 day, 10 days or even 2 months.

This is precisely the type of info this forum needs, and what separates itself from other forms.

Many people fail to realize that the best gamblers in the world try to achieve a winning % of 52-55%....and most do not. Without taking the line into consideration, that's the difference between going 12-13 over 25 games vs 13-12. To me, any system showing a good return based on a slight competitive edge on the line is a system worth looking at strongly.

Thanks for the contribution.
 
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