BASEBALL...Week 12

Not happy about Cubs but probably right.
Pitt===has hit Corbin in the past and done well in Arizona but in general they have become a terrible road dog and Corbin on 5 is really good and Arizona has been very solid at home as long as Corbin avoids Murphy as catcher. Musgrove I do need to look at more
 
Monday 5-1
All starts by Williams and Buckholtz have went under 62% of the time for 18% ROI over 3+ years
starter in [Trevor Williams , Clay Buchholz] and season > 2014
OU: 31-50-4 (0.12, 38.3%) avg total: 8.7 over / under: -$2,457 / +$1,646 ROI: -25.9% / +17.8%

Here's the top 10 money pitchers over last 365 day...notice Stratton #4. Mengden #8 made me rethink Astros play but they have been so damn good as road favs over 130 I went with them anyways, but did have some concern on that game
View attachment 32819


3 teams that fair especially well after Monday off..WA, PHI, MIN so I'm gonna roll with that since nothing I see points otherwise
View attachment 32820

Good luck to all!

View attachment 32821
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I always dig an under with Mikolas at home. I just worry about Cards pen deeper into series. What do you think about Strahm?
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Honestly dont know much about Strahs, he has good numbers in very limited sample. My play is based on hot humid St Loo. Unders have cashed 9 of 12 when temp over 80 this year and have hit 62% over 4 years in MAY-JUL when over 80. It's miserable sticky hot humid hellacious weather and I'm sure the umps are ready to get done as well as the players for the most part. Feel like temp will be mid nineties
 
No real feel for the Houston game yet. Purely based on trends its Houston but Oakland is a tough team. Ump could swing this either way
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I always dig an under with Mikolas at home. I just worry about Cards pen deeper into series. What do you think about Strahm?
Click to expand...

He should be handing it straight to hicks tonight, id assume he available for 2 innings after having last few days off. So not too worried bout our pen cause Mikolas goes 6+ pretty much every start anyways so w hicks rested I don’t suspect pads get more than 2-3 unless Mikolas is just off.. harder for me to pin down cards output w pitcher I don’t know and who I don’t think has been stretched out more than a couple innings and sporting a ugly walk rate. Still thinks under the right play if there is one on this total. It take cards scoring 6+ to beat it I think a high percentage of the time, and not like we score 6+ real freaking often!!
 
Tuesday 5-8
crappy day, had bad break and bad plays...stratton pitched well enough to win but no support, kimbriel gives up 2 in 9th to lose under, cubs and nats didnt show and pit was terrible pick

I'm prolly on Yanks later when I see a line, even with Gray
Miggy out for year with bicep tear and Trout on a tear. 4HR 2 games https://streamable.com/uvs78
stros have been amazing road favorite last couple year, today they have best road ref going today in porter and they are amazing 17-2 this year as road fav over 150

team = Astros and A and season > 2017 and line < -150
SU: 17-2 (3.89, 89.5%) avg line: -189.2 / 174.6 on / against: +$1,330 / -$1,355 ROI: +36.8% / -71.3%
RL: 15-4 (2.39, 78.9%) avg line: -119.0 / -101.0 on / against: +$1,020 / -$1,170 ROI: +44.7% / -58.6%


time to...
dviflb-l-610x610-underwear-black-sports+bra-cute-hot-slay.jpg
 
Good stuff on the Astros and Texans. Leaning Rox FF or full game based on the other thread.
You got something on that one too?
 
Gaius.T said:
Good stuff on the Astros and Texans. Leaning Rox FF or full game based on the other thread.
You got something on that one too?
Click to expand...

Not sure, but I may roll with Phillies again. Pivetta has been strong, esp at home with 2.20 era and less than 1 whip thru 7 games
plus..
home favs between 120 and 175 off 1 run win in NL and starter off loss...have won 65% for near 10% ROI and 15% ROI on RL
HF and p:margin = 1 and league = NL and season > 2012 and -120 > line > -175 and s:L
SU: 128-70 (0.98, 64.6%) avg line: -145.1 / 135.1 on / against: +$2,800 / -$3,500 ROI: +9.8% / -17.7%
RL: 91-106 (-0.52, 46.2%) avg line: 151.1 / -174.0 on / against: +$3,029 / -$5,980 ROI: +15.4% / -17.4%
 
Dont really like parlays, but I like both these spots, just maybe not enough to play each separate, so just thought I would throw this out there...maybe some quick mad money for my bitpay


2 Team Parlay
6/13/18 7:05pm MLB Baseball 908 Philadelphia Phillies -125* vs Colorado Rockies (T Anderson - L must Start N Pivetta - R must Start)
6/13/18 7:05pm MLB Baseball 926 New York Yankees -171* vs Washington Nationals (E Fedde - R must Start S Gray - R must Start)

Risking $50.00 To Win $92.63
 
Thanks for the research mr. Why not go for the Texas only parlay. Better odds. Not sure I trust Phila or the Rox to perform as expected
 
Gaius.T said:
Thanks for the research mr. Why not go for the Texas only parlay. Better odds. Not sure I trust Phila or the Rox to perform as expected
Click to expand...
already got tex too, I know I play too many games, but I'm a grinder and love the action

found this too, it isolates NYY, PHI and STL

favorite 150 or more with under .310 OBP last 15 games in June games over 5 years(Not exact OBP, but as close as I can figure with SDQL)
Produces 71.5% winners and 11.5% ROI for ML and 59% RL winners for 28% ROI

F and (tS(hits, N=15) + tS(walks, N=15)) / tS(at bats, N=15) <= .325 and season > 2012 and line <= -150 and month = 6
SU: 103-41 (1.85, 71.5%) avg line: -180.6 / 166.7 on / against: +$2,999 / -$3,549 ROI: +11.5% / -24.6%

RL: 84-59 (0.36, 58.7%) avg line: 118.1 / -131.0 on / against: +$4,092 / -$5,115 ROI: +27.6% / -26.9%
 
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mrpickem said:
Tuesday 5-8
crappy day, had bad break and bad plays...stratton pitched well enough to win but no support, kimbriel gives up 2 in 9th to lose under, cubs and nats didnt show and pit was terrible pick

I'm prolly on Yanks later when I see a line, even with Gray
Miggy out for year with bicep tear and Trout on a tear. 4HR 2 games https://streamable.com/uvs78
stros have been amazing road favorite last couple year, today they have best road ref going today in porter and they are amazing 17-2 this year as road fav over 150

team = Astros and A and season > 2017 and line < -150
SU: 17-2 (3.89, 89.5%) avg line: -189.2 / 174.6 on / against: +$1,330 / -$1,355 ROI: +36.8% / -71.3%
RL: 15-4 (2.39, 78.9%) avg line: -119.0 / -101.0 on / against: +$1,020 / -$1,170 ROI: +44.7% / -58.6%


time to...
dviflb-l-610x610-underwear-black-sports+bra-cute-hot-slay.jpg
Click to expand...


Slayer indeed.
 
Wednesday 8-2

Had a nice day with come from behind wins out of MIA and PIT. Chacin produced another win(now 23-10 +18u over 12 months). Only thing would have made it sweeter if TEX could have come through...cole pitched good and they took LAD to 11 inn.

  • 952 Miami Marlins -1½ +200 https://goo.gl/Jjnkn8 / https://goo.gl/MngJmM
  • 952 Miami Marlins +104 https://goo.gl/eGcYj4 /
  • 955 San Diego Padres +124 Tyson Ross is 16-7 with Pads! the #5 earning starter over last 365 days +10.4u
  • 955 San Diego Padres/Atlanta Braves Under 8½ +105
  • 959 Minnesota Twins -112 https://goo.gl/5PWdfT
  • 959 Minnesota Twins/Detroit Tigers Over 8½ -110
  • 963 Houston Astros -174 same as yesterday but 1 better 18-2 as road fav over 150
  • 963 Houston Astros -1½ -110
  • 966 New York Yankees -159 https://goo.gl/EnUSUp
  • 967 Boston Red Sox -129 Felix 30 runs in L7 starts/38inn and BOS rakes righties anyways 38-15
Started to write off fish since they 0-7 on thurs and atl is 6-0 but I literally had 5 different queries indicating them. I run 14 of the same queries everyday and then work off them with other situational stuff. Verlander has crazy numbers .76 whip and 11 K's per 9 after 93inn. NYY 17-5 vs Rays in NY since '16
Also I will be stalking the mets for a likely add once we get a line

maybe jv homework is helping
https://giant.gfycat.com/IncompleteJoyousAnkole.webm
 
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Thursday 5-5

Marlins had there chance but failed, would have made me a winner on day, even if they would have just lost in 9th by 1. Oh well not bad after 0-4 start to get to 5-5 and only down 1u on day. Onward...weekend here we come
  • 905 Philadelphia Phillies +129
  • 908 St. Louis Cardinals +105 Wacha has allowed 14 runs over L:10 starts and is 12-4 @H L365
  • 907 Chicago Cubs/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8 +105 https://goo.gl/9rUfxQ
  • 917 Detroit Tigers +122 https://goo.gl/Vth7j4
  • 919 Houston Astros -1½ -130 https://goo.gl/KTpJ9F
  • 919 Houston Astros -199
  • 926 Baltimore Orioles -152 MIA 13-23 after x-inn game L3 years
  • 930 Texas Rangers -103 https://goo.gl/Jjnkn8
Somewhat tough card tonight with the most profitable starters over L365 Jakob Junis 15-11 +6.3u, Kluber 25-11 +2u, Wacha 21-10 +8.3u and Lester 22-11 +7u. Cant take Junis vs Stros train, Kluber line out of line, but I do like Wacha spot despite Lester

This is amazing and I've won with it 6 times in last 8 days
HOU away fav over 150 this year is 19-2 +38%ROI
View attachment 32847

7333a122-90f7-425a-bdd4-c6464bf1db89.png
 
Friday 3-5

Bad Friday, I did have NYY but didnt post it. Still a losing day. Try to get back on track today

Today's Starters this year-
Top winners: Severino 12-2 +8.6u / Max 11-3 4.6u / LeBlanc 6-2 +4u
Top fades: Hendricks 4-9 10.3u / Cobb 2-9 6.5u / Duffy 4-10 4.8u

Saturday:
  • 958 St. Louis Cardinals +111 - 7-4 in game 2 after losing 1st series game, plus Hendricks biggest fade this year
  • 957 Chicago Cubs/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ -115 - 65% under over 3.5 years in May-Jul when temp > 80
  • 960 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +165 - Gonna fade Bum despite Wood
  • 962 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +145 - Corbin been good in all but 2 starts this year and looks for revenge vs mutts and Matz
  • 966 Chicago White Sox -101 https://goo.gl/t2Th4u
  • 967 Houston Astros -1½ -125 - 18-4 R+49%ROI as road fav over 150 this year
  • 967 Houston Astros -192 - 20-2 as road dog over 150 this year
  • 976 Baltimore Orioles -1½ +155 https://goo.gl/Jjnkn8
  • 976 Baltimore Orioles -141 https://goo.gl/t2Th4u
  • 975 Miami Marlins/Baltimore Orioles Over 9 -115 - https://goo.gl/hSMBFC
  • 978 Texas Rangers -101 - 12-5 in Game 2 after losing 1st series game this year
  • 977 Colorado Rockies/Texas Rangers Over 10 +100
  • 978 Texas Rangers +1½ -150 https://goo.gl/Jjnkn8

I got a few plays...​
 
Sat 5-7 with push on balty total

Can't believe I've played sorry ass O's 2 days in a row laying chalk with the worst team in baseball...and I have won with fish at least a couple times in last week. Well I'm taking MIA today since O's are 1-8 in series game 3 after losing first 2.
  • 907 Chicago Cubs/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ -105
  • 918 Chicago White Sox -1½ +185
  • 919 Houston Astros -1½ -140
  • 919 Houston Astros -220
  • 922 Oakland Athletics +114
  • 925 Miami Marlins +161
  • 925 Miami Marlins/Baltimore Orioles Under 8½ +105
  • 930 Texas Rangers +1½ -130
No reasoning today, just...
0ecd350a-9e74-4f3a-a8e4-911ad8a72964.png
 
ATL, CLE, NYY all indicated by this 80% trend. Was gonna play MIN for other reason, but will just stay on sidelines

so adding...
  • Atlanta Braves -114
  • New York Yankees -230
 
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I posted Bundy on 5. Not what I would like for a under. Last game I vaguely remember a huge effort. No trust
 
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