BAR, Emkee, SMH, Lunchbox, Bodog and Others, Washington +1?

[tazz]

sup guys...there are so many good cappers here (espcially in the nba) with lunchbox and billyv and sportnut and so many others....what you guys think of Washington +1 tomorrow?

i know they're 0-8 on the road and they already lost to ny by 20 here earlier and the knicks are playing a lil better..... but i personally think this washington team is the 3rd or 4th best team in the east, the knicks will be lucky to make the playoffs....arenas had some comments after last game that this is the first year he can remember that he's not doing anything on the road....i think him and the whole wiz team go into msg and stroll off with a comfortable 10 points win.....however i trust my abilities in nfl and nhl and other sports a lot more than the nba so i want to know what you guys think?...thx fellas....solid forum here, i think it can and will get better as time goes on

 

[MX_259]

If Washington is playing in New York and are dogs by one or even favored by one, I already like that play.
Last year Washington had a good competitive team, and lately it almost seems like its all in the making again.
Washington can play a fast paced game. Everyday brings new statistics and I haven't looked into the play a whole lot, but of the top of my thoughts I like it!

 

[SportsNut]

The mere fact you get a better line this time around is helpful. I think it opened Wiz -1 though but now +1 and I know for certain I grabbed the 3 last visit. NYK is playing better but Wash is BETTER.

So I'll take a 4 point adjustment... Grizz were only +2 the other nite would not say even on the road Wash is as bad as Memphis so there seem sto be alot of value in WIZ here. The real knock is the fact home team owns the series 8 of 10....thats the biggest negative factor...they came up short versus Tor but while they played very well vs Memphis its still Mem and the allowed the Grizz a few comebacks...

Is this Taz's Crew? ...welcome and GL

 

[tazz]

yup, it's taz's crew sportnut, good to find ya again. good points by you and mx259...i just think after wiping the court with dallas last game, they will have some renewed confidence

 

[B.A.R.]

I like it Taz and will be on it almost for sure. Only thing that scares me is Wiz have had trouble putting wins togther.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

welcome, tazz.:cheers:

My only concern - not that Im a heavy sides player - is that NYK, after stinking it up at home, is just starting to get into their work there (close tough efforts against TOR & MEM) and theyre on such a long homestand, they must feel heres a chance to right things (their record). While WAS could be vulnerable to suffering from arrogance that says *heres the lowly Knicks after we beat DALLAS*.

I think if you like WAS to perform, then Over might provide at least as much value, the number should be decent since NYK hasnt lit it up at home (6-1 to Under last 7), and we know they can run with WAS.

Just a few ideas.

 

[Killa]

Ahh, my boys tomorrow.....

Gun to my head, I say Wiz get this one. Motivational edge for Wiz, with the 0-8 record on the road and revenge from 2 weeks ago. Knicks however may be relaxed and feel a little less pressure now, after winning at home. I think what scares me here is the quick 2-point line move, wassup with that? Curry should have another big night vs. Washington's stiffs. Arenas should be on a mission though, however I've thought he'd be on a mission many road games this year and none of them worked out.

 

[MX_259]

Yeah, that 0-8 road record is destine to be stopped sooner or later, and hey, no better time than in New York. Jamison and Arenas, all they got to do is get their team in the game and keep the momentum, shouldn't be the most difficult task that they have come across yet.

 

[DuY!]

Hey Tazz!!!!

It's one of those games better left untouched

 

[Capt. Slap]

I'm hoping the Wizkid's keep losing cause I'm ready to drop a grip on them to win the National Title @ +5000, hopefully it goes a bit higher to +7500 or so

Any thoughts on this? I've never bet a future bet

Would I get better odds on the Wiz later in the season?

 

[smh212]

Public seems to be favoring the Wiz, and the line has moved towards NY. I side with Bet that the Knicks are looking for the opportunity to make a move.

 

[emkee]

Leaning Knickers here. The Wiz seem the way too obvious pick in this matchup...

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I really cant understand this total.

Opened 208, down to 206.5 - thats understandable.

Opening at 208 to begin with, is not. In the *what have you done for me lately* stakes...

WAS is 8-4 to Under last 12 games (5-1 to Under in their road games), breaking tonights number only 3 times, all home games. During this same stretch of games, they played in NYK and totaled 184.

NYK is 6-1 to Under last 7 home games, 10-4 to under last 14 games overall. Has broken this total's opening line once in their last 15 games. The closest any Over situational number gets to being *viable* is the fact they're O/U 3-3 off a SU win (but 2 of those Overs were in road games).

To me, this line is suspiciously high, even where it sits after moving. I wouldnt be playing Under here - fact is I'm not playing anything, but the numbers from this season do not in my mind justify this opening at a point which begged for it to be backed down, which is precisely what's happened. Washington have to show up for this to go Over, so thats my fear for you NYK guys: this total opener says thats exactly whats going to happen.

Just to add, IMO it opening at 204-205 would not have led to huge amounts of Over action

 

[SportsNut]

I really cant understand this total.

Opened 208, down to 206.5 - thats understandable.

Opening at 208 to begin with, is not. In the *what have you done for me lately* stakes...

WAS is 8-4 to Under last 12 games (5-1 to Under in their road games), breaking tonights number only 3 times, all home games. During this same stretch of games, they played in NYK and totaled 184.

NYK is 6-1 to Under last 7 home games, 10-4 to under last 14 games overall. Has broken this total's opening line once in their last 15 games. The closest any Over situational number gets to being *viable* is the fact they're O/U 3-3 off a SU win (but 2 of those Overs were in road games).

To me, this line is suspiciously high, even where it sits after moving. I wouldnt be playing Under here - fact is I'm not playing anything, but the numbers from this season do not in my mind justify this opening at a point which begged for it to be backed down, which is precisely what's happened. Washington have to show up for this to go Over, so thats my fear for you NYK guys: this total opener says thats exactly whats going to happen.

The number is perception based. The perception is the Wiz are this high octane tun and gun offense. When in actuality if you look at the numbers they have some serious offensive aways icluding Arenas well documented road struggles. With the NY cause of a few games the perception is this team doesnt play defense. When again if you check the stats they are medicore but not awful...

Thats the gambling mantra perception versus reality....guess its something I should look into

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Nut, I realise that overall perceptions are weighed against what have you done for me lately, but if they were sold on the fact this was a great spot for Under, in keeping with what these teams have done lately, it'd have opened lower IMO and still wouldnt lead to imbalanced action, as evidenced by the fact the line has dropped - at 208, it was always going to drop, guaranteed.

 

[tazz]

thx for the input fellas...well i'm going to play washington...gotta go by hunches sometimes