August Bases

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
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CIN 8-21 on the total away at night this year
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CIN 21-38 on the total in all games at night this year
View attachment 41361

BOS 45-25 on total this year at night
View attachment 41362

  • 904 St. Louis Cardinals -123
  • 903 Chicago Cubs/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ -115
  • 906 Atlanta Braves -148
  • 908 Los Angeles Dodgers -194
  • 911 Tampa Bay Rays +117
  • 911 Tampa Bay Rays/Boston Red Sox Over 10½ -110
  • 913 Houston Astros -180
  • 916 Miami Marlins +156
  • 915 Minnesota Twins/Miami Marlins Under 8 +100
  • 917 New York Mets -162
  • 917 New York Mets/Chicago White Sox Under 9½ -108

 
Over the last 3 years when you have a road fav of 120 to 190 and a total of 9 or less, the game stays under 65% for 24.6% ROI (MIN)

KillerSports

bit.ly bit.ly

season > 2016 and AASB and total <= 9 and -120 >= line > -190 and month < 9 and A
SU:119-82 (1.14, 59.2%) avg line: -144.4 / 134.2 on / against: +$244 / -$1,069 ROI: +0.8% / -5.3%
RL:85-116 (-0.33, 42.3%) avg line: 110.2 / -130.2 on / against: -$2,235 / +$625 ROI: -10.7% / +2.4%
OU:67-127-7 (-0.55, 34.5%) avg total: 8.4 over / under: -$7,252 / +$5,420 ROI: -32.7% / +24.6%
 
Observations:
3 of top plays this year was totals
2 of the top 6 play involve fading Detroit
Yankees RL is much better play than ML
In July you were happy when playing SF or fading Rox/Tigs
3 overs on list for year but only one for Jul..unders are starting to cash since break
View attachment 41368
 
adds
  • 917 New York Mets -1½ -125
  • 917 New York Mets/Chicago White Sox Over 10 +100
  • 919 Milwaukee Brewers/Oakland Athletics Under 9 +100
 
Can anyone talk me off of boston tonight to avoid the sweep??? Anyone? It’s gonna be tough to avoid
 
T-Rex said:
Can anyone talk me off of boston tonight to avoid the sweep??? Anyone? It’s gonna be tough to avoid
Click to expand...

I've lost with Sox last 2 nights and on the Rays tonight...probably a great reason to ride BOS :bluehead:

But in reality the stronger play is the over imo
 
mrpickem said:
I've lost with Sox last 2 nights and on the Rays tonight...probably a great reason to ride BOS :bluehead:

But in reality the stronger play is the over imo
Click to expand...
I am a strong believer in betting against sweeps. Happens way too infrequently. Even though I am not in love with Cashner by any means
 
Also, after the sweep, I believe I might actually go in on Baltimore tonight. Any thoughts there?
 
YTD [852-755 +8.26u] (11-7 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [13-2 +9.24u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 952 Chicago Cubs -140
  • 953 New York Mets -108
  • 955 Cincinnati Reds +133
  • 960 Arizona Diamondbacks -137
  • 961 San Diego Padres +162
  • 965 Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees Over 10½ -105
  • 966 New York Yankees -1½ +155
  • 966 New York Yankees -123
  • 969 Detroit Tigers/Texas Rangers Over 10 +100
  • 971 Seattle Mariners/Houston Astros Over 10 -105
  • 972 Houston Astros -258
  • 973 Kansas City Royals/Minnesota Twins Over 11 -105
  • 974 Minnesota Twins -1½ -135
randoms...
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View attachment 41385


 
mrpickem said:
YTD [852-755 +8.26u] (11-7 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [13-2 +9.24u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 952 Chicago Cubs -140
  • 953 New York Mets -108
  • 955 Cincinnati Reds +133
  • 960 Arizona Diamondbacks -137
  • 961 San Diego Padres +162
  • 965 Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees Over 10½ -105
  • 966 New York Yankees -1½ +155
  • 966 New York Yankees -123
  • 969 Detroit Tigers/Texas Rangers Over 10 +100
  • 971 Seattle Mariners/Houston Astros Over 10 -105
  • 972 Houston Astros -258
  • 973 Kansas City Royals/Minnesota Twins Over 11 -105
  • 974 Minnesota Twins -1½ -135
randoms...
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Click to expand...
Woah... chick in the red, name please, haha
 
gotta add
  • 960 Arizona Diamondbacks -117

They scratched Ray for whatever reason, but Young is solid and has potential to really shine here. Looks like some sharp money on Nats but I aint buying it, #smokescreen alert.
 
YTD [861-759 +13.32u] (11-7 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [9-4-1 +5.06u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 902 Chicago Cubs -130
  • 903 New York Mets -122
  • 903 New York Mets/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 9 +100
  • 905 Cincinnati Reds/Atlanta Braves Under 8½ +105
  • 909 San Francisco Giants/Colorado Rockies Over 11½ -105
  • 915 Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +125
  • 915 Toronto Blue Jays -119
  • 921 Seattle Mariners/Houston Astros Over 10½ +100
  • 922 Houston Astros -1½ -110
  • 922 Houston Astros -193
  • 923 Kansas City Royals/Minnesota Twins Over 10 -105
  • 924 Minnesota Twins -1½ -125
  • 926 Texas Rangers -1½ +175
  • 930 Philadelphia Phillies -272
  • 932 Oakland Athletics -130
randoms...
In the history of the SDQL database(15+ years) starters making 1st start with new team are profitable to the tune of 14.3% ROI
1-1 last night as PHI pen blew it and tonight you have HOU, CIN, NYM all with new hurlers
On the road in that 1st start the ROI is 19.1% with 71-56 record as avg 120 dog KillerSports.com
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I only recently found and started using ActionNetwork mobile app, but it is really sweet. Especially for someone like me that has many plays. You can glance anytime and see what your record is and how the games are going ingame. It keeps your records and allows you to adjust the odds although that's a bit of a pita. AFAIK the app is free, although I subscribe to SportsInsights with same login so maybe I get something extra...not sure. But the app is the best I've ever found for this stuff. Also has tons of matchup info and analysis.

The app is here if anyone wants to try it or just search Action Network in Play Store

It will post to twitter for you with a single click among other sharing option.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1157629518493954048
 
adds...
  • 912 Los Angeles Dodgers -245
  • 914 New York Yankees +110 (Game 1)
  • 928 Tampa Bay Rays -190
  • 907 Washington Nationals/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 8½ -105
 
adds
Have several indicator on fish but couldn't do it.
  • 918 New York Yankees -140
  • 917 Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees Over 11 -105
  • 918 New York Yankees -1½ +125
  • 926 Texas Rangers -113 (adding a unit makes it 2U)
 
adds
  • 919 Los Angeles Angels/Cleveland Indians Under 11 -110
  • 930 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ -155
 
T-Rex said:
Can you explain this chart to me? 2 columns next to each other have the same heading but different numbers?
Click to expand...

Important column are 6-11
ML# is % of wagers on each side(Money Line)
ML$ is % of money on each side
SPD is same but with spread or in baseball that means RL
OU is total and over % is on top/ under on bottom..same # in number of wagers in % and $ is % of money
Theoretically if the $ is a lot higher than the # it usually indicates sharps or syndicate with large wagers, but different people can interpret it differently and also the accuracy of these line services is always questioned. I believe it's accurate but not always complete or up to date
 
Last edited:
YTD [876-769 +15.9u] (12-7 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [15-10 +2.58u] (1-0 on 2u plays)

Survived a couple bad RL beats to post a small profit on day. Tough day for tots(2-5)
  • 951 Cincinnati Reds +109
  • 953 New York Mets -143
  • 953 New York Mets/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 8½ -110
  • 956 Chicago Cubs -137
  • 958 Colorado Rockies -128
  • 962 Los Angeles Dodgers -142
  • 961 San Diego Padres/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 8½ -110
  • 966 Cleveland Indians -196
  • 968 Minnesota Twins -1½ +100
  • 968 Minnesota Twins -200
  • 972 Texas Rangers -167
  • 976 Philadelphia Phillies -153
  • 978 Tampa Bay Rays -168
  • 977 Miami Marlins/Tampa Bay Rays Under 8 -105
  • 979 St. Louis Cardinals +123

View attachment 41447
View attachment 41446

 
Excellent night for model and continuing to taday with value on TEX again and SEA

My model ranks Tigers so bad there is value for most any opponent and -370 is freakin crazy chalk

View attachment 41453
 
a few adds
  1. 974 New York Yankees +104
  2. 980 Oakland Athletics -130
  3. 969 Seattle Mariners/Houston Astros 1st 5 Innings Under 5 -105
  4. 973 Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees Over 9½ -115
Had HOU selected but just cant lay that kind of juice. Actually M's start isn't that bad, so I'll try FF under
 
YTD [888-774 +20.24u] (12-7 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [12-5-2 +4.34u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 902 New York Mets -1½ -140
  • 904 Pittsburgh Pirates +124
  • 903 Milwaukee Brewers/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 9½ -103
  • 906 New York Mets -1½ +120
  • 906 New York Mets -160
  • 908 Arizona Diamondbacks -102
  • 917 Kansas City Royals/Boston Red Sox Over 11½ -110
  • 918 Boston Red Sox -222
  • 920 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -120
  • 928 Minnesota Twins -102
randoms...
-TB 22-5 on Mondays since last year (13-2 @home)
-LAA is 11-4 in inter-league games this year
-BOS at night this year...OVER 63.5% and 39.5% on RL..fade for 16.3% ROI
team = Red Sox and season = 2019 and NGT
SU:39-37 (0.51, 51.3%) avg line: -161.2 / 144.5 on / against: -$1,403 / +$859 ROI: -11.3% / +11.0%
RL:30-46 (-0.43, 39.5%) avg line: -111.1 / -109.2 on / against: -$2,165 / +$1,515 ROI: -23.3% / +16.3%
OU:47-27-2 (1.52, 63.5%) avg total: 9.5 over / under: +$1,750 / -$2,524 ROI: +21.1% / -29.9%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team5.783.718.639.962.431.642.951.493.7915.787.430.863.254.41
Opp5.263.5410.019.072.221.412.741.473.6615.017.110.713.084.70

-DET this year at home at night :rofl: 3-21 SU and 4-20 RL
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​
 
Starters when traded are usually really hyped to impress and it shows in their performance in first start for new team
This year starters with a new team have went 8-3 SU +28% ROI and 9-2 RL +57.5% ROI not to mention 64% UNDERS
View attachment 41477

In the history of SDQL database(since '04) they have won 58% for 14.7% ROI
s:team != team
SU:149-108 (0.38, 58.0%) avg line: -100.8 / -112.3 on / against: +$4,636 / -$5,923 ROI: +14.7% / -17.9%
RL:109-91 (0.41, 54.5%) avg line: -106.9 / -106.6 on / against: +$1,590 / -$2,775 ROI: +6.4% / -11.2%
OU:114-130-12 (0.29, 46.7%) avg total: 9.0 over / under: -$2,683 / +$470 ROI: -9.6% / +1.7%

Crazy thing is you can look at them any way..home, away, fav, dog and they show profit every way (Most profitable is RL as fav)
View attachment 41480

Only 3 more chances this year starting tomorrow...Greinke, Leake and Gallen
 
Last edited:
Two weeks in and the totals experiment is looking quite strong so far. It may be time to start wagering small amount moving forward.
That being said...no plays today :popcorn:
Rays would be an over play but Mr Morton negates that as he qualifies as a stud starter.

Cubs very close to under play and Gints close to over play but no cigar.

View attachment 41484
 
The blowout effect...

Here's what happens when a team loses by over 10 runs and moves on to another series in the next game
Over the last 10 years SU 76-55 +18% ROI and 81-49 RL +20.5% ROI KillerSports.com
The Pirates fit the bill...crazy side note this has lost 8 straight SU and 12-17 since last year BUT still +25% ROI on RL

p:margin < -10 and FGS and season >= 2010
SU:76-55 (0.47, 58.0%) avg line: 109.7 / -121.9 on / against: +$2,735 / -$3,340 ROI: +18.1% / -19.2%
RL:81-49 (0.75, 62.3%) avg line: -110.2 / -104.4 on / against: +$3,464 / -$4,140 ROI: +20.5% / -25.1%
OU:66-54-10 (0.61, 55.0%) avg total: 8.4 over / under: +$695 / -$1,821 ROI: +4.9% / -12.7%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team4.723.228.078.972.070.932.561.213.9814.267.020.732.963.98
Opp4.253.197.438.551.691.072.341.093.5314.246.820.973.014.11

I'll buy in...already on bucs SU but now adding
  • 904 Pittsburgh Pirates +1½ -125
 
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