August Bases

inZane said:
So are you still gonna bet against that with your LAA play?
Click to expand...

I do actually see a lot of value with the Angels and already played it early this morning, I just came upon this trend later in the day. It make sense, logical...but I'm sticking with Angels. My model also like LAA with fade value play. In other words, Cincy may indeed win but they have no business laying -200 chalk imho
 
mrpickem said:
I do actually see a lot of value with the Angels and already played it early this morning, I just came upon this trend later in the day. It make sense, logical...but I'm sticking with Angels. My model also like LAA with fade value play. In other words, Cincy may indeed win but they have no business laying -200 chalk imho
Click to expand...

I appreciate your response and the time you take to post all of this useful info...

:shake:
 
YTD [895-780 +18.32u] (12-8 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [7-6-4 -1.92u] (0-1 on 2u plays)
  • 951 Milwaukee Brewers -140
  • 951 Milwaukee Brewers/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 9½ -105
  • 955 Philadelphia Phillies/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9½ -115
  • 960 Los Angeles Dodgers -177
  • 961 Chicago White Sox/Detroit Tigers Under 9 +100 (GAME 1)
  • 965 Chicago White Sox +102 (GAME 2)
  • 965 Chicago White Sox/Detroit Tigers Over 10½ -105 (GAME 2)
  • 967 Kansas City Royals/Boston Red Sox Over 10½ -105
  • 968 Boston Red Sox -174
  • 971 Texas Rangers +178
  • 971 Texas Rangers/Cleveland Indians Over 10½ -105
  • 973 Los Angeles Angels/Cincinnati Reds Over 10 -110
  • 974 Cincinnati Reds -139
  • 976 Chicago Cubs -141
  • 977 Atlanta Braves/Minnesota Twins Over 10 -103
  • 978 Minnesota Twins -1½ +110
  • 978 Minnesota Twins -148
  • 980 Houston Astros -192
randoms...
Yanks crush vs division this year: 40-14 SU +20.7% ROI / 39-15 RL +32.1% ROI and number same home or away except thay smash the over on the road
View attachment 41508

Pads play down to their comp and are only 40-71 on RL vs team with losing records since last year(21-39 RL and fade for 20.7%ROI this year)
View attachment 41509


View attachment 41507
View attachment 41512
 
View attachment 41514
qg3vfoM.jpg

Timeless pic over 60 years old from 1957
 
adding a few more as lines pop up
  • 957 Washington Nationals -116
  • 963 New York Yankees -1½ -140
  • 963 New York Yankees -200
  • 963 New York Yankees/Baltimore Orioles Over 11 +100
  • 970 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -105
Potential for a good spot with M's depending on starter
 
2 last adds for me
  • 982 Seattle Mariners +110
  • 969 Toronto Blue Jays/Tampa Bay Rays Over 8½ -110
 
YTD [909-789 +20.61u] (12-8 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [14-9-2 +2.29u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 901 Miami Marlins/New York Mets Under 9 -115
  • 905 Washington Nationals -104
  • 905 Washington Nationals/San Francisco Giants Under 9 +100
  • 910 Arizona Diamondbacks -139
  • 915 Chicago White Sox -103
  • 919 Kansas City Royals/Boston Red Sox Over 10½ -107
  • 920 Boston Red Sox -1½ -160
  • 920 Boston Red Sox -295
  • 921 Atlanta Braves/Minnesota Twins Over 10½ -105
  • 922 Minnesota Twins -1½ +175
  • 922 Minnesota Twins -102
  • 924 Houston Astros -1½ -175
  • 923 Colorado Rockies/Houston Astros Under 8½ +103
  • 927 San Diego Padres -146
  • 927 San Diego Padres/Seattle Mariners Under 9½ -110
Gonna wait a bit and hope for lower lines on NYY and HOU

randoms...
2 more winners last night bring season total to 10-3 for starters making their first start with new team after trade.
Two more go tonight and I believe these are the last two this year. Gallen and Pomeranz
Image just shows games for this year but record reflects entirety of the SDQL database(16 years) w/ solid +15.2% ROI
View attachment 41533

Huge favs over 200 after the allstar break on Wednesday when total under 10 crush; 55-12 SU +16.4% ROI / 43-24 RL +18.7% ROI over last 7 years
It may sound like a lot of crazy variables but all are logical if you think about them. (HOU today)
View attachment 41534

View attachment 41531


View attachment 41530
View attachment 41535
 
Past 2 weeks have been pretty good for me on my 2019 roller coaster, definitely an uptick

View attachment 41536

That's 19.5 units up, not 1950 :rofl:

Notes about getaway days (WED & SUN)

Unders...
-when the totals are under 9 and it's the last game of series. Likely some big bats are resting, day after night and when you only play games lined under 9 the conditions and/or starters are conductive to low scoring games.
This year over 60% stay under for 17.6% ROI and although the last 4 have went over you can see in the image the over is 12-4 since the break

View attachment 41537

Big favs
-taking only favorites of 200 or more in the last game of series on getaway day, the better teams mostly have better dept so they shine when both teams resting players. You can see in the pic they have cash 9 straight and 16-2 since break. I went back 6 years in this illustration to show this is profitable over time(over 11% ROI both ML & RL), but in 2019 this situation is 56-7 near 90% wins for 25.6% ROI
-matter of fact in the 16 year history of SDQL there was only 2 bad years playing this system, 5 basically flat and 9 STRONG winning years. The ROI over 16 years is still very respectable 5% and the system has shown to perform better over the last decade or so with the only 2 bad years in '04 & '07. I think this may be attributed to the balance of power and the discrepancies from the best teams to the worse which has grown in last 10-15 years

View attachment 41540

Oh by the way, both these systems are marginally better on Wednesday than Sunday although both days are stellar :shake:
 
Another totals experiment winner, now picking 70% through 16 days
I'm a bit skeptical about today's play because Gallen is near stud level starter that just hasn't had the time to prove himself just yet

View attachment 41542
 
adds
  • 909 Philadelphia Phillies/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9 -115
  • 913 Texas Rangers/Cleveland Indians Over 10 -112
  • 914 Cleveland Indians -188
  • 925 Oakland Athletics/Chicago Cubs Over 10½ +100
 
moar...
  • 903 St. Louis Cardinals/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 8½ -101
  • 908 Pittsburgh Pirates +108
  • 917 New York Yankees/Baltimore Orioles Over 10 -102
 
YTD [921-795 +25.07u] (12-8 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [12-6-4 +4.46u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 951 Atlanta Braves -1½ -120
  • 951 Atlanta Braves -188
  • 953 Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Reds Under 9½ -110
  • 956 San Francisco Giants +107
  • 955 Philadelphia Phillies/San Francisco Giants Under 7 +108
  • 957 Colorado Rockies -1½ +155
  • 957 Colorado Rockies -103
  • 957 Colorado Rockies/San Diego Padres Under 8½ -113
  • 959 New York Yankees -1½ -140
  • 959 New York Yankees/Toronto Blue Jays Over 10½ +100
  • 961 Los Angeles Angels +240
  • 961 Los Angeles Angels/Boston Red Sox Over 10½ +100
  • 966 Minnesota Twins -1½ +185
  • 965 Cleveland Indians/Minnesota Twins Under 9 -108
randoms...
-Cincy only over the total 1 time this year in 13 games on Thursday
-Fish are 6-22 SU on Thursday since last year
-BOS 35-18-3 on total this year vs teams with losing record +24.4% ROI

View attachment 41562
View attachment 41561
 
Off night for model but down less than 2u on night..I don't mind bad nights like that

No value tonight

View attachment 41583

Cant rightly explain it but so far the real value is from even to -5%..or my model est win % is even to 5% below the actual available line
It accounts for 68.9% of profit on the year and an amazing 93.8% for Jul/Aug although skewed by negative 11.4u
Anyhoo, here's the breakdown
View attachment 41585

The plays today in the HOT range would be: MIN, PHI, CUBS
 
a little something to the tigs....1st time in awhile
  • 964 Detroit Tigers 1st 5 Innings Over 2½ -105
 
randoms...
-Cincy only over the total 1 time this year in 13 games on Thursday
-Fish are 6-22 SU on Thursday since last year
-BOS 35-18-3 on total this year vs teams with losing record +24.4% ROI

Love everyone of these randoms, so I took them ALL, haha...... F me
 
T-Rex said:
randoms...
-Cincy only over the total 1 time this year in 13 games on Thursday
-Fish are 6-22 SU on Thursday since last year
-BOS 35-18-3 on total this year vs teams with losing record +24.4% ROI

Love everyone of these randoms, so I took them ALL, haha...... F me
Click to expand...

I guess sometimes regression's a bitch. :riphair:
 
YTD [926-805 +19.89u] (12-8 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [5-10 -5.18u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 902 Miami Marlins +136
  • 901 Atlanta Braves/Miami Marlins Under 8 -110
  • 904 Cincinnati Reds +100
  • 903 Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Reds Under 9 -115
  • 906 New York Mets +112
  • 905 Washington Nationals/New York Mets Under 7½ +100
  • 907 Pittsburgh Pirates +130
  • 909 Arizona Diamondbacks +173
  • 912 San Diego Padres -132
  • 914 San Francisco Giants +103
  • 913 Philadelphia Phillies/San Francisco Giants Under 8½ -105
  • 915 Oakland Athletics -170
  • 915 Oakland Athletics/Chicago White Sox Over 10½ -110
  • 918 Baltimore Orioles +1½ +140
  • 919 New York Yankees -1½ +100
  • 919 New York Yankees -145
  • 919 New York Yankees/Toronto Blue Jays Over 10½ -110
  • 926 Minnesota Twins +132
randoms...
-NYY 43-14 SU in division this year +22.3% ROI
-NYY 42-17 RL in division this year +34.2% ROI
-NYY 22-5 over total in division on the road this year KillerSports.com
-OAK 29-7 SU vs teams with losing records after break since last year +31.6% ROI (4-0 this year) KillerSports.com
-HOU 18-3 SU on the road after off day since last year +49.2% ROI

View attachment 41603

View attachment 41604
View attachment 41605
 
Yankees join another huge winning trend today.

Teams who's "Percent of baserunners that score" is over 17.5% above the league average. The Twins been the sole team on this list for 3 months running until falling off after Aug 6. Welcome the Yankees starting today. The query only accounts for favorites when total is 9 or higher and omits the first 20 games of the season. In other words we want spots when we are laying the stick but don't want to be matched up against a stud starter in a low scoring tilt..harder to cover RL.
Over last 5 years these teams win 65.4% SU for 7.2% ROI but the real money is on the runline with a 99-80 record for +18.4% ROI

KillerSports.com

View attachment 41607
 
Last edited:
Had to tweak my model again because one of the ratings sites I use is now giving errors on auto import.

I have added 2019 MLB Baseball Relative Power Index - Major League Baseball - ESPN
The one that is screwing up is still included now(total of 5) but likely to be removed if I can't fix the issue with the import.
It is https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/power-rankings

Todays early model values MIN

View attachment 41617

But I will update once I get all the umps listed. The umps effect it very little but the whole model is a sum of many parts, so they are important.
 
went back other way...line movement so crazy
  • 916 Chicago White Sox +240
I will make nice profit with sox or break even with A's
 
another winner for totals experiment..now at 68% winners over 18 days
3 plays today..MIA over and BOS under
LAD over negated because Buehler's a stud

View attachment 41631
2
 
Last edited:
I had mentioned how starters do in their 1st start after being traded and the answer was very well (12-3 this year) and one last guy gets the nod today, but I cannot bet Edwin Jackson no matter what. He is making his 1st start for the Tigs today.

I got to thinking, what about the 2nd start with new team? Especially if they lost in the 1st outing.

The answer was yes, the will/do as long as the first start was away and their 2nd start was at home

Sample size is not great but the ROI is 25% both ML & RL over the 16 year history on SDQL.

From this image you can see that since 2010 they have went 23-9 +41% ROI on the ML

View attachment 41632

Tonight we will get Bauer in that spot and since I already had played it, I may just make it a 2 unit play
 
another way to look at these traded starters 2nd start for a new team is when they pitch ok but not a "Quality Start"

So 2nd start with new team and at home and last start NQS (not a quality start)

It provides a bigger sample and much better returns as well. Plus it gives another play for tonight...Mr Stroman and a home dog vs the nats


View attachment 41633

In case you wondering, I even added division game to the query and it got even sweeter

View attachment 41634
 
I talked myself right into that shit, adding a unit to each making both 2u plays
  • 904 Cincinnati Reds +104 (2u)
  • 906 New York Mets +111 (2u)

giphy.gif
 
So you looking for a sure thing, well it isn't here but 95% is pretty close

Favorites of 200 or more after the break when starter is coming off a quality start is 43-2 95.6% over last 45 (29-1 this year!)

ASTROS tonight

View attachment 41638
 
YTD [932-816 +18.34u] (14-8 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [6-11 -1.65u] (2-0 on 2u plays)
  • 952 San Francisco Giants -101
  • 951 Philadelphia Phillies/San Francisco Giants Under 8½ +100
  • 953 Atlanta Braves -203
  • 955 Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Reds Under 8½ +100
  • 957 Washington Nationals/New York Mets Under 7½ +100
  • 959 Pittsburgh Pirates/St. Louis Cardinals Under 9 -110
  • 961 Colorado Rockies/San Diego Padres Under 8½ -110
  • 964 Los Angeles Dodgers -179
  • 963 Arizona Diamondbacks/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 8½ -105
  • 968 Boston Red Sox -1½ +145
  • 969 Kansas City Royals +114
  • 971 Houston Astros -1½ -145
  • 971 Houston Astros -238
  • 974 Minnesota Twins -1½ +130
  • 975 Oakland Athletics -1½ -105
randoms
View attachment 41655

View attachment 41653

View attachment 41654
View attachment 41657 View attachment 41658
 
Fade home team when line withing 30 of even, total over 9, series game > 1 and starter loss vs opp last time he faced them

11-4 in last 15 when fading the home, 55% winners and +11.4% ROI since last year

View attachment 41671
 
tidbits
  • Musgrove has been terrible against the Cards in his career. In 12.2 inn this season, he’s given up 19 runs. SL -150 isn'y bad but RL looks much jooucier.
  • Soroka has been on point against the Fish in 2 starts this season, allowing 3 runs in 15 innings...while Alacantra has been wildly inconsistent recently with a 6.81 ERA and an 0-4 record in his last 7 starts.
  • 200 or more favs when their starter is off a quality start are 111-20 or 85% this year for +20% ROI ( 54-1 last 55) That covers ATL, HOU and TB today
View attachment 41676
 
adds
  • 960 St. Louis Cardinals -1 -129
  • 977 Tampa Bay Rays -200 vs Seattle Mariners
    C Morton - R Listed Any pitcher Listed
    All plays will have action with any Seattle Mariners starting pitcher
Love it, no starter announced, fuck you Seattle...we got bets to book
 
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
6:10 p.m. ET

The Royals may be four games up on the Tigers in the AL Central, but at 1-9 in their last 10 they’re having a hard time drawing bettors tonight in Detroit. Only 49% of bettors have taken the Royals, which raises interest on how this line has reacted.

After opening shorter than -120, Detroit is now up to around -134 across most of the market, and one shop is even posting a -140. Given the even betting percentages, it’s pretty clear that sharps are probably among the 51% on the home side.

Several line services can confirm that professional action, as they’ve triggered a steam move on the Tigers at -127. Detroit’s 51% backing has also accounted for 65% of actual money, meaning bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are taking the favorite.

Sharp angle: Tigers (moved from -119 to -134)


Do I jump ship as I already played Royos???

View attachment 41683
 
Starters with 6-8 days rest as favs more that 120 after the break over last 3 years +18.4% ROI on RL and 15% ROU on ML (19-2 since July 24..after allstar break stopped effecting rest cycle)

Dont think you can really include Green as he's not typical starter but Sanchez for sure later

View attachment 41685
 
YTD [944-823 +21.58u] (14-8 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [12-7 +3.24u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • Miami Marlins +186
  • Atlanta Braves/Miami Marlins Under 8½ +105
  • Cincinnati Reds -125
  • Washington Nationals +176
  • Washington Nationals/New York Mets Under 7½ +100
  • St. Louis Cardinals -183
  • Pittsburgh Pirates/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ +105
  • Philadelphia Phillies +100
  • Philadelphia Phillies/San Francisco Giants Under 9 -110
  • Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -105
  • Los Angeles Dodgers -205
  • Arizona Diamondbacks/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 8 -105
  • Los Angeles Angels/Boston Red Sox Over 11½ -105
  • Boston Red Sox -139
  • Houston Astros -1½ -230
  • New York Yankees -169
  • New York Yankees/Toronto Blue Jays Over 10½ +100
  • Detroit Tigers +105
  • Kansas City Royals/Detroit Tigers Under 9 -105
  • Minnesota Twins -1½ +130
  • Chicago White Sox +1½ -140
  • Chicago White Sox +118
  • Oakland Athletics/Chicago White Sox Under 9 -113
randoms
-OAK 30-8 ML vs teams with losing record since last year after break +28.5% ROI (5-1 this year) KillerSports.com
-HOU 59-15 ML on the road as a -150 fav or more since last year +21.3% ROI http://bit.ly/2McKgKHv
-BOS 37-19-3 on total this year vs teams with losing record..play over for +24.6% ROI
-SEA only 14-43 vs teams with winning record this year(6-22 outside of division) fade for 24.1% ROI

View attachment 41700
 
Last edited:
Getaway day

WED or SUN in last game of series when total under 9 / This year 61.5% stay under for 18% ROI (games in SL, LAD, MIA, NYM all qualify today)
12-7 to the under since break(shown on pic)
View attachment 41702

WED or SUN in the last game of series when line is -200 or higher, the fav wins 79.2% for 12.1% ROI over last 4 years (19-3 since the break this year)
This year these same favorites are winning 88.1% (59-8) for +22.1% ROI.
I use the longer history because I believe most queries under 100 game sample size are meaningless.
(LAD, TB, HOU all qualify today)
View attachment 41703

There are 2 ways I rate queries/trends, win % and ROI. I want a much higher ROI when win % is lower. In other words the 2nd query above only has 12% ROI but wins 80% because of big juice. The first query only cashed 62% but the ROI is 18% so they are both quite attractive in my eyes. Different folks can evaluate these divergences differently, you be your own judge.
 
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