August Bases

[mrpickem]

• Jays -1 FF +188 - Bravos been in a slump recently with their bats. They cant seem to get it done when they have guys on base. Folty pitched very well last time out. I think this is another low scoring grind it out type game. As a braves fan it pains me, but after the past couple days and with Folty and the up-and-coming ace Waguespack I’ve gotta throw something on the under and Jays and the FF
• Tribe -200 - Civale is 1-3 with a 1.82 ERA in 5 starts. In his debut, he faced the Tigers throwing six shutout innings. Zimmermann is 1-9 with a 6.48 ERA this season and 0-6 with a 10.68 ERA in his career against the Indians. In his one start against the Indians this season, he gave up five runs in 4.1 IP. The Indians are 13-1 against the Indians this season, lay the road favorite. Just looks too easy.

 

[mrpickem]

couldn't get the -1 but still adding FF

• 976 Toronto Blue Jays 1st 5 Innings -½ +125

 

[mrpickem]

YTD [1115-981 +13.23u] (17-10 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [10-9 -0.43] (2-0 on 2u plays)
Fortunate to hit both 2u plays but lost all 4 adds after original post :doh:

• 906 Colorado Rockies -103
• 905 Pittsburgh Pirates/Colorado Rockies Under 14 -105
• 907 Los Angeles Dodgers -184
• 909 San Diego Padres -125
• 909 San Diego Padres/San Francisco Giants Under 8 -105
• 911 Cleveland Indians -230
• 913 Oakland Athletics -188
• 913 Oakland Athletics/Kansas City Royals Over 10 -112
• 917 Minnesota Twins -181
• 917 Minnesota Twins/Chicago White Sox Under 10 -102
• 919 Seattle Mariners/Texas Rangers Over 10½ -102

randoms...

• MIA 25-9-3 over total last 3 monthsView attachment 42519
• Cubs only winning 35% on the road @night this year..nice ROI fading ML or RLView attachment 42520
• TEX 20-11 in division games @home this yearView attachment 42521
• Tigs @home this year:rofl:View attachment 42522

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[mrpickem]

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[mrpickem]

Chasing the line went well, 6-1 last night and 10-1 last 11

Tonight big favs (HOU, NYM, OAK) but subject to change based on line movement. Needs to be at least after noon or later on for night games.

View attachment 42524

View attachment 42527​

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[mrpickem]

No model value showing for today

View attachment 42544

 

[smo1a]

Chasing the line went well, 6-1 last night and 10-1 last 11

Tonight big favs (HOU, NYM, OAK) but subject to change based on line movement. Needs to be at least after noon or later on for night games.

View attachment 42524

View attachment 42527​

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Thanks! Do you mind posting the minimum line for it to qualify? Thanks!

 

[mrpickem]

Thanks! Do you mind posting the minimum line for it to qualify? Thanks!

There is no minimum, it is based the difference from yesterday, so long as you have same opponent, same site and same team favored.

For instance OAK was around -170 yesterday and today it's -220 or so(50 cent diff).
You are looking for favorites laying over 20 more or dogs receiving over 20 cents less.

 

[mrpickem]

I have recently found out that SDQL lines are only updated twice a day and they don't necessarily use the closing line, but one an hour or so before close...depending on game time. There is no exact time they are updated but usually mid day and early evening.

Today's chase has Astros listed but by my lines they do not qualify

My lines - today / yesterday
HOU -230 / -220 DOES NOT QUALITY - 10 cent diff
NYM -185 / -125 QUALIFIES - 60 cent diff
OAK -220 / -165 QUALIFIES - 55 cent diff
CLE -250 / -220 QUALIFIES - 30 cent diff

View attachment 42545

 

[mrpickem]

The totals chase hasn't went as well lately but historically it's been solid

Under was 1-0 yesterday although the game qualified after I posted. 5-3 last 6 days
DET under for today
View attachment 42547

The overs have been the weakest lately and overall. 1-3 yesterday and 4-7 last 6 days
KC over today
View attachment 42548

 

[mrpickem]

Wanted to play the Rays but layed off for now.

Noticed teams averaging over 1.5 HR's per game that are a fav of at least 150 are winning 70% of the time this year. (17-5 last 6 days)

HOU, LAD, MIN, OAK all fit that bill

View attachment 42549

 

[smo1a]

I have recently found out that SDQL lines are only updated twice a day and they don't necessarily use the closing line, but one an hour or so before close...depending on game time. There is no exact time they are updated but usually mid day and early evening.

Today's chase has Astros listed but by my lines they do not qualify

My lines - today / yesterday
HOU -230 / -220 DOES NOT QUALITY - 10 cent diff
NYM -185 / -125 QUALIFIES - 60 cent diff
OAK -220 / -165 QUALIFIES - 55 cent diff
CLE -250 / -220 QUALIFIES - 30 cent diff

View attachment 42545

Thanks! Was asking above for that very reason on Astros. Also wanted to ensure I understood the parameters. Good to go now!

 

[mrpickem]

2 more unders qualify after CLE under was easy $$

View attachment 42552

EDIT: Scratch that, they are for tomorrow...lol

 

[inZane]

Mr. P your posts and insight are greatly appreciated, as are your pictures of beautiful women. The young lady on post #255 was particularly intriguing...

View attachment 42555

 

[mrpickem]

Mr. P your posts and insight are greatly appreciated, as are your pictures of beautiful women. The young lady on post #255 was particularly intriguing...

View attachment 42555

Yeah, Gemma has been around a long time, that pic is probably 20 years old and she is now a milf

@glouiseatkinson
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[mrpickem]

YTD [1120-986 +11.44u] (17-10 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [5-5-1 -1.79] (0-0 on 2u plays)

• 952 Chicago Cubs -141
• 956 Washington Nationals -1½ -120
• 956 Washington Nationals -233
• 955 Miami Marlins/Washington Nationals Under 9½ -115
• 957 Cincinnati Reds/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8 +105
• 960 Colorado Rockies -119
• 962 Arizona Diamondbacks +1½ -135
• 962 Arizona Diamondbacks +117
• 963 San Diego Padres/San Francisco Giants Under 7½ -107
• 966 New York Yankees -1½ +130
• 966 New York Yankees -137
• 968 Toronto Blue Jays +1½ +120
• 973 Seattle Mariners +1½ -155

View attachment 42562

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[mrpickem]

adds

• 969 Cleveland Indians -1½ +110
• 971 Minnesota Twins -1½ -170

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[mrpickem]

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[mrpickem]

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[mrpickem]

Chasing the line went 2-2 last night. 17-13 last 7 days
Astros were dropped last night but replaced with another loser (CIN) after my last post
Todays plays: AZ, WAS, SEA

View attachment 42573

 

[mrpickem]

Chasing the total...
Unders went 1-0 last night and 6-3 last 7 days
Tonight WAS under

View attachment 42574

Overs went 2-0 last night and 6-7-1 last 7 days
No indicated overs tonight

View attachment 42575

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 973 Seattle Mariners -101
• 976 Kansas City Royals -105
• 978 Los Angeles Angels +110

 

[mrpickem]

YTD [1125-998 +3.08u] (17-10 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [5-12-1 -8.36] (0-0 on 2u plays)

• 904 Chicago Cubs -147
• 906 Philadelphia Phillies +100
• 908 Washington Nationals -277
• 907 Miami Marlins/Washington Nationals Under 8½ -105
• 911 Los Angeles Dodgers -146
• 911 Los Angeles Dodgers/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 8 +100
• 914 Colorado Rockies +105
• 915 San Diego Padres/San Francisco Giants Under 8 -110
• 918 New York Yankees -1½ +105
• 918 New York Yankees -172
• 919 Houston Astros -168
• 921 Minnesota Twins -1½ +115
• 921 Minnesota Twins -131
• 926 Kansas City Royals +108
• 931 Chicago White Sox/Atlanta Braves Under 9 +100

randoms
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[mrpickem]

Totals 2-0 last night but none indicated today

View attachment 42585

 

[mrpickem]

Model shows lots of value today (COL, KC, BOS, MIN, PHI, OAK)
Boston game figured with generic average starter since it's not yet announced, SEA as well

View attachment 42586

 

[mrpickem]

Chasing line 2-1 last night and 18-11 last 7 days

Today: LAD, TEX, DET

View attachment 42587

 

[mrpickem]

Chasing total

No overs last night or today

MIA under play fell off chart after total moved to 10 last night... 6-2 last 7 days

View attachment 42588

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 902 St. Louis Cardinals -125
• 911 Los Angeles Dodgers -137 1u more makes this a 2u play
• 928 Texas Rangers -145
• 929 Boston Red Sox +100