August Bases

20 DAYS INTO THE TOTALS EXPERIMENT AND I NOTICED BOTH GAMES YESTERDAY THAT WHERE NIXED FOR HAVING STUD STARTERS WON, SO I LOOKED BACK OVER THE 20 DAYS AND FOUND THAT ALL THE OVERS NIXED FOR STUD STARTERS WENT 8-5, WHILE NOT QUITE AS GOOD AS THE ONES WITHOUT STUDS, STILL PROFITABLE. SO STARTING TODAY I WILL NOT NIX ANY GAMES BASED ON STARTERS

I HAVEN'T INCLUDED THEM IN RECORD, BUT WILL ADD THEM BY TOMORROW

3 OVERS TODAY. I ALREADY PLAYED MIA UNDER BUT WILL LIKELY HIT OTHER 2 OVERS TODAY

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adding
  • 927 Tampa Bay Rays -167 vs Seattle Mariners
    R Yarbrough - L Listed Any Opener Listed
    if "Listed Pitchers" selected, then any Seattle Mariners opener will count towards grading purposes
 
In 16 years only 18 games were line -400 or more... home or away

Pedro the highest at -460 vs Rays in 2004 / also Kluber -460 vs Tigs in 2017 (PEDRO LOST!) :rofl:

Note: Lines in SDQL only update once or twice per day so I'm sure they will update HOU over 400 today eventually

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If birds decide to show up today they could make it a blood bath for guys on our side of the window...I gotta cut grass but coming back to watch that game today, have it circled
 
Doyers in day games at home since last year 22-4 +31.7% ROI (19-1 last 20)

team = Dodgers and season > 2017 and H and DAY
SU:22-4 (2.92, 84.6%) avg line: -190.6 / 172.7 on / against: +$1,559 / -$1,599 ROI: +31.7% / -61.5%
RL:15-11 (1.42, 57.7%) avg line: 113.3 / -133.5 on / against: +$605 / -$780 ROI: +21.6% / -22.0%
OU:12-10-4 (1.42, 54.5%) avg total: 7.9 over / under: +$92 / -$350 ROI: +3.2% / -12.3%
 
Following is copied from another site for your pleasure:

Today, the model recommends five full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first five innings (F5).

As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Angels, Blue Jays, Marlins, Orioles and Pirates as full-game plays. The model also likes those same teams (except for the Pirates) as F5 plays.

Per my colleague, Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros are the biggest road favorite since 2005! So obviously we will be playing the Orioles.

As of writing, the odds on the Orioles imply a winning percentage of roughly 20%. I project their fair odds for today closer to 30%, while some industry sites put their chances at roughly 25-27%.

I certainly have some concerns about Asher Wojciechowski. His average fastball velocity dropped more than one full mph (to 91.3 mph) in his past two starts after he complained about hip discomfort, and he wasn’t able to generate many swings and misses against the Blue Jays or Yankees in either of outing while being tagged for 12 hits and five homers in 8.2 innings.

He’s going against a future Hall-of-Famer and a lineup that blew up his teammates for 23 runs on Saturday night. But that’s why the Orioles moneyline offers value.

The Orioles are exceedingly unlikely to win. Again, their chances are about 25-30%. But if the books imply a probability of 20%, how do you not take a 1/4 chance against odds that say 1/5?

I previewed Angels rookie Patrick Sandoval before his debut on August 5, and while he pitched well in a bulk role (5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 8 K) in that outing, usually reliable Angels opener Taylor Cole allowed five runs in the first inning — a hole that the Halos never climbed out of.

Furthermore, I’ll gladly continue to fade the Red Sox as a favorite when Andrew Cashner is starting. In five starts with Boston, he has the following line: 28.2 IP, 38 H, 26 R, 7 HR, 12 BB, 20 K (7.53 ERA, 6.46 FIP, 5.15 xFIP).

Hector Noesi will make his second start for the Marlins today against the Braves.

The 32-year-old spent some time in Korea between his last MLB appearance in 2015 and his start on August 6 against the Mets, but his Triple-A numbers in the offensive-friendly PCL from this season are encouraging: 21 starts, 125 IP, 3.82 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 112 H, 30 BB, 133 K.

The most noticeable difference in Noesi’s arsenal from 2015 to 2019 (in a small sample) is fewer fastballs and more sliders and curveballs. He pitched well for three seasons with the Kia Tigers in the KBO league, and I’m taking a chance that he found something overseas.

I played Noesi’s former team, the White Sox, at even money at home against the Athletics, just missing the 3.5% cut for being a model recommended play.

I have grown fond of the 2019 version of Lucas Giolito, and he is baseball’s third-most profitable pitcher this season (14-8, +$775, 35.2% ROI).

His metrics (3.43 FIP, 3.93 xFIP, .284 xwOBA) outclass those of Chris Bassitt (4.62 FIP, 4.73 xFIP, .305 xwOBA), and the Athletics are far more effective against left-handed pitching than against righties.

Lastly, I’m backing the Blue Jays today and expecting them to take a series win against the Yankees. Masahiro Tanaka is in the midst of one of the worst stretches of his career, with his xwOBA going off of the deep end of late:

View attachment 41724

Bets (So Far) for August 11
  • Baltimore Orioles (+390) Game Moneyline
  • Chicago White Sox (+117) Game Moneyline
  • Los Angeles Angels (+135) Game Moneyline
  • Miami Marlins (+186) Game Moneyline
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (+180) Game Moneyline
  • Toronto Blue Jays (+161) Game Moneyline
  • Under 11.5 (-110), LA Angels at Boston
  • Under 10 (-115), Houston at Baltimore
  • Under 9 (-120), Atlanta at Miami
  • Over 9 (+100), Kansas City at Detroit
 
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YTD [951-841 +10.55u] (14-8 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [7-18 -11.03u] (0-0 on 2u plays)

View attachment 41744

What a bloodbath, but I have the feeling I'm not the only one. But still standing, only thing to do is dust off and move forward. :shake:
  • Washington Nationals -107
  • Arizona Diamondbacks +107
  • Cleveland Indians +105
  • Chicago White Sox +1½ +150
  • Los Angeles Angels -143
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ADDS
  • New York Yankees -315 (Game 1)
  • Baltimore Orioles/New York Yankees Over 11 -110 (Game 1)
  • New York Yankees -1½ -160 (Game 1)
  • Toronto Blue Jays -108
  • Tampa Bay Rays +120
 
adds
  • Arizona Diamondbacks/Colorado Rockies Under 14 -110
  • Texas Rangers/Toronto Blue Jays Under 11 -110
  • Chicago White Sox 1st 5 Innings +240
I meant to play two on my model overs yesterday but forgot, today I'm playing both unders now.
 
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I also like the under in the Angels-Pirates game that I mentioned before the jump today.

Mitch Keller was running hot in the minors prior to his callup today, with a strikeout to walk ratio of 5:1 over his past five starts, including a 12-strikeout game in his last outing.

He is a former second-round pick, and rates as the Pirates top prospect and the No. 28 overall prospect per MLB Pipeline.

Keller primarily relies on his big fastball (touches 99 mph), sharp slider and biting curveball:


He’s not a finished product, but I’m expecting Keller to make some major noise down the stretch this season.

Note that the Pirates also have the worst offense in MLB vs. lefties per wRC+, so this is also great matchup for Andrew Suarez, making this game a prime candidate for an under.

1. Verlander: 1.64
2. Thor: 1.77
3. Flaherty: 1.85
4. deGrom: 1.85
5. Darvish: 2.46
6. Bieber: 2.51
7. A Sanchez: 2.62
8. Kershaw: 2.64
9. Ryu: 2.65
10. Morton: 2.66
 
YTD [962-844 +15.8u] (14-8 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [11-3-1 +5.25u] (0-0 on 2u plays)

  • Cincinnati Reds +106
  • Cincinnati Reds/Washington Nationals Over 10½ -105
  • Chicago Cubs -1½ +125
  • Chicago Cubs/Philadelphia Phillies Over 10 -110
  • Atlanta Braves -1½ +155
  • Atlanta Braves -122
  • New York Mets/Atlanta Braves Under 9½ -113
  • Arizona Diamondbacks +1½ -155
  • Arizona Diamondbacks/Colorado Rockies Over 12 -110
  • Baltimore Orioles/New York Yankees Over 10 +102
  • New York Yankees -1½ -150
  • New York Yankees -288
  • Texas Rangers -1½ +108
  • Texas Rangers -132
  • Texas Rangers/Toronto Blue Jays Under 9½ -110
  • Cleveland Indians +107
  • Boston Red Sox/Cleveland Indians Under 8 +102
  • Seattle Mariners +153
  • Chicago White Sox +1½ +167 (Game 2)
  • St. Louis Cardinals -1½ -125
  • St. Louis Cardinals -203
  • Oakland Athletics/San Francisco Giants Under 8 -108
  • Los Angeles Angels -167
  • Tampa Bay Rays -117
  • Tampa Bay Rays/San Diego Padres Under 8 -105
random
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tN3sVAJ.jpg
 
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I know there was only 9 games yesterday and one was rained out, but fukn perfect is perfect and that what the model did yesterday going 8-0 overall(including 4 dogs) and 3-0 on value plays! Best thing I had action on all and a little extra on the value picks.
:breakdance::breakdance::breakdance:

Today there's a record 8 value plays.

SEA, AZ, CLE, CIN, KC, CHW, MIN, CHW

tHE LAST 4 ARE FADE VALUES(CHISOX TWICE), THESE LINES ARE JUST TOO DAMN HIGH!

View attachment 41812
T
 
YTD [974-854 +17.24u] (14-8 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [12-10-7 +1.34u] (0-0 on 2u plays)


WTF, 3 late starter changes cause 6 scratched bets that would have been 4-2 :mad:
  • Arizona Diamondbacks -135
  • Washington Nationals -144
  • Cincinnati Reds/Washington Nationals Under 9 -115
  • Chicago Cubs +108
  • Chicago Cubs/Philadelphia Phillies Under 9 -107
  • Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -155
  • Los Angeles Dodgers -255
  • Atlanta Braves -131
  • Texas Rangers +118
  • New York Yankees -1½ -130
  • New York Yankees -225
  • Houston Astros -270
  • Seattle Mariners -132
  • Seattle Mariners/Detroit Tigers Over 10 +100
  • Minnesota Twins +105
  • Oakland Athletics -116
  • Oakland Athletics/San Francisco Giants Under 8½ -103
  • Los Angeles Angels -120
-NYY 47-16 SU & 45-18 RL IN DIVISION THIS YEAR FOR ROI'S 20.4 & 30.4 RESPECTFULLY
-DET 12-40 SU & 17-35 RL IN CONFERENCE @NIGHT THIS YEAR..ROI ON BOTH EXACTLY 26.1%
-PIT 27-9 INTER-CONFERENCE SINCE LAST YEAR(12-4 THIS YEAR)

 
teams averaging over 7.7 rpg over last 7 at home with a starter pitching well(quality start last game)

Only happened 30 times in 16 years and the home team is 21-9 +31.5% ROI

Rox and Halos qualify today...small sample but solid reasoning, I already played snaked but considering buying out. Not entirely sure, just had this trend pop up in my stream. I track a lot of hot/cold teams scoring or allowing over 7.7 rpg and under 2.2 rpg over 7, 8, 10 or 14 games

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CTG has made content panel smaller to facilitate larger ads in right column so if you have hard time reading my images, just click them and they will become much larger.

:cheers3:
 
trivial bullsheit

  • Yankees -250 - Judge finally got a double and that may be all he needs to break out of his slump. Bundy has a 6.56 ERA over his last 3 starts for the O’s. Baltimore can clinch a 3rd straight losing season with a loss today…
  • Twins -105- Minnesota has the best BA and SLG in the MLB against lefties this season. Gio is a lefty and I'm not a huge fan any more. He's only pitched 6inn once this year and that may be trouble considering the Brewers used 6 of their bullpen arms just last night . Gibson holds a 4.03 road ERA as well as a 4-3 personal record and 8-3 team record in those starts. The Twins have won in 4 of Gibson's last 5 road starts including wins @Cleveland, @Oakland, and @Tampa Bay.
  • Marlins Team Total O2.5 - Any time you see a team total set at 2.5 runs in 2019 you almost have to bet it given the juice isn't too high. Kershaw is on the mound for the Doyers, but it simply doesn't matter to me. 2.5 runs is too small of a number to bet against in this MLB Season where the ball is flying all over the place including just the standard variance that comes with betting baseball. Kershaw faced the Marlins once this season in LA and although he went 6 scoreless innings the Marlins still scored 6 runs and that is exactly my point with the variance involved in baseball, an ace pitcher can go 7 flawless innings and the other team can still post up 3 runs easily on the bullpen. In all of Kershaw's road starts this season, the opposing team his failed to reach 3 runs just once and that was when the Dodgers obliterated the Phillies 16-2.
 
YTD [985-867 +12.79u] (14-8 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [11-13 -4.45u] (0-0 on 2u plays)

  • Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -145
  • Los Angeles Dodgers -245
  • Los Angeles Dodgers/Miami Marlins Over 7½ +105
  • Chicago Cubs -142
  • Chicago Cubs/Philadelphia Phillies Under 9½ -102
  • Cincinnati Reds -1½ +125
  • Cincinnati Reds -158
  • Atlanta Braves -119
  • Minnesota Twins -1½ +100
  • Los Angeles Angels -167
  • Houston Astros/Oakland Athletics Under 9½ -102
random
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mo0WuSa.png
 
adding;
  • Arizona Diamondbacks -150
  • Seattle Mariners -102
  • New York Yankees -1½ +115
  • New York Yankees -157
  • Minnesota Twins/Texas Rangers Under 12 -105
 
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FROM ANOTHER SITE
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Indians and Marlins as full-game plays. The model also likes the Marlins as an F5 play.

The Marlins have lost the first two games of their series against the Dodgers by a combined score of 24-2. Naturally, they will be in a contrarian spot against an elite team for the third consecutive day:







I mentioned this system and made this same play on the Marlins on Wednesday, and I’ll continue to ride this spot here with Miami sending out their best pitcher, in Caleb Smith.

After returning from left-hip inflammation on July 6, Smith has maintained a healthy strikeout rate (26.3%, 3% below his 2019 average) but his fastball velocity has steadily declined throughout this season and he has allowed significantly more hard contact in his recent starts, causing his xFIP to surge:

Screen-Shot-2019-08-15-at-10.18.26-AM.png


It’s worth noting that Walker Buehler has been significantly better at home (.223 wOBA, 6 BB, 94 K in 73.1 IP) than on the road (.304 wOBA, 16 BB, 66 K in 64 IP) which is a trend that has carried over from 2018, when his wOBA was 40 points lower at home.

As for the Indians-Yankees matchup, Cleveland will need to overcome the Yankees on a bullpen day, as they are (+$617, 56.1% ROI) when Chad Green serves as an opener; winning by an average margin of 2.73 runs.

Adam Plutko’s metrics don’t inspire confidence, with his 4.66 ERA the beneficiary of some luck (.254 BABIP), giving him a 5.96 FIP and 5.74 XFIP.

Amongst pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings this season, Plutko’s strikeout rate (14.5%) ranks as the seventh-lowest, comparable to Ivan Nova.

However, amongst that same group of pitchers, Plutko also has the sixth-lowest walk rate (3.7%) placing him ahead of Zack Greinke and Miles Mikolas, and just behind Hyun-Jin Ryu.

What’s more, and this is a bit serendipitous as it was something I discovered well into writing – Plutko has the lowest ground-ball rate (28.6%) amongst those same group of pitchers – just ahead of Marlins starter Caleb Smith (29.1%).

The pair ranks fourth and fifth respectively in fly-ball rate amongst pitchers who have thrown 60 innings or more in 2019.

Per FanGraphs, the Indians have the best defensive team in the American League and are second only to the Diamondbacks in all of MLB.

Plutko is the opposite of a three true outcomes pitcher, and though he has allowed a bunch of home runs (39) through his first 145.2 MLB innings, he pitches for a team that is most capable of maximizing his value.

If you’ve got an ironclad stomach, this matchup also sets up for a contrarian under between two winning clubs:

I have this total projected for 9.7 runs, and with the wind blowing in from right field I was happy to play under 11.

Bets (So Far) for August 15
  • Cleveland Indians (+147) Game Moneyline
  • Miami Marlins, +1.5 (+135) Game Spread
  • Over 9 (-115), Seattle at Detroit
  • Under 11 (-115), Cleveland at NY Yankees
  • Under 10 (-115), Houston at Oakland
 
Not my writeup, but I like the selections and words make sense.
I'm already on the 1st two and may add the 2 FF plays as well
:cheers3:
Dodgers v Marlins OVER 7.5 -107 [1U]

- A total of 7.5 runs is simply just too low in this season of MLB, especially when you have an explosive offense such as the Dodgers involved in the matchup. We've seen the total set at 8 and 8.5 in the other two games this series and the Dodgers were able to cover that number on their own, scoring 9 and 15 runs in each of those games. Caleb Smith has not impressed me as much as he did earlier in the season, and 3 of his last 4 starts at home have seen the total runs go over 7.5, with that 4th game falling just short of 7.5 at 7 total runs. Walker Buehler is also someone who does not impress me much on the road. Compared to his 5-0 personal home record and 8-3 team record in his home starts to go with a 2.33 ERA, Buehler is slightly worse on the road, posting a 3.94 ERA to go along with a 5-2 personal record and 6-5 team record in those starts. Buehler has given up at least 6 runs in his last 3 road starts and of his 11 road starts this season, in just 4 of those did he manage to give up less than 3 runs. If the Marlins can hit that 3 run mark or even just 2 runs I give this game a great chance to go over that low 7.5 total.

Minnesota Twins -1.5 -106 [1U]

- With Michael Pineda just getting announced as the starter for the Twins today, I like Minnesota in this spot laying the 1.5 runs on the road. In Pineda's 10 road starts this season he is posting a 5-2 personal record with a 4.24 ERA and the Twins are 6-4 in those starts. Pineda has also managed to allow greater than 3 runs in only 2 of those 10 starts, one of which was against Houston. On the other side of the matchup, this Texas Rangers team is not impressing me at all as of late. Hitting 5+ runs in just 2 of their last 8 games, the Rangers have also seen two games over that stretch end in 0 runs on offense, as well as another 2 games where they only scored 1 run. With this being their first home game in some time, of course it is possible that the Rangers come out fired up and look to get a win to start this series with the Twins. However, with the recent form of this offense I just don't see how the Rangers can keep up scoring with the Twins unless their pitchers all pitch lights out from start to finish.

Atlanta Braves (F5) ML -129 [1U]

- Once again I'm going to take another play over -125 here today against my favorite team, the New York Mets. Unfortunately, I feel like the Mets great run in starting to come to a screeching halt, at least until they play the Royals tomorrow. Although the Mets were able to pick up two wins in Stroman's first two starts for them, Stroman did not impress me too much. Giving up 3 and 4 runs is not the end of the world, however the main stat that strikes me as troubling is the fact he gave up 7 and 9 hits in those two starts. Stroman cannot afford to give up 6+ hits especially against this Atlanta Braves team in this weather and ballpark. These Braves bats can eat Stroman alive if he gives up a healthy amount of hits, and those same bats are clicking right now as the Braves have scored 5+ runs in their last 8 games. On the other side, Julio Teheran is a pitcher who has really got it going in his last 7 starts. During that span he has posted 5 Quality Starts, 2-1 personal record, 5-2 team record, and a 1.91 ERA. Looking at his home stats, he has a significantly lower ERA compared to on the road (2.52 @ H vs 4.01 on R), and the Braves are 7-4 in his home starts. Teheran has not given up >3 runs in a home start since he faced the Mets on June 18th, but the Mets shelling him for 6 runs that game does not put me off this matchup. Given the Mets unpredictable bullpen I would consider betting the Braves full game ML, but the Braves bullpen is just as untrustworthy so I will stick to the F5 innings ML.

Cincinnati Reds -0.5 (F5) -114 [1U]

- My final play of the day at least for now, will be the Reds laying a half run in the first 5 innings vs the Cardinals. Although these teams are streaking in opposite directions with the Reds Losing their last 3 and the Cards winning their last 5, I'm not looking too much into that as the Cards beat up on the lowly Royals and Pirates, whereas the Reds had to deal with the Cubs and then the Nationals on the road. I believe Sonny Gray is the perfect guy to get the Reds back on track especially with his start here coming at home in Cincy. Gray is an impressive 6-2 this season at home with a 3.25 ERA to go along with a 9-3 team record in those starts. In his 12 home starts, Sonny Gray has given up 4+ runs in just one of those, and that happened to be in a game where Cincinnati still got the win. This Cardinals offense really is not impressing me as far as F5 innings production goes as of late. In their last 5 games, the Cardinals have only scored over 2 runs in the first 5 innings in just one of those matchups. I am also not high on Michael Wacha at all, especially since he's given up 4+ runs in 3 of his last 4 starts on the road. Having pitched only one start in the month of July and not having a start here in August since August 5th, it's clear that Wacha is not a concrete part of the Cards rotation and I think that this will show again here today.
 
ADDS..minny rebet cause starter change but adding a's rl
  • Minnesota Twins -155
  • Oakland Athletics +1½ -145
WtJvQj3.png
 
YTD [991-878 +6.39u] (14-8 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [6-11-1 -6.4u] (0-0 on 2u plays)

  1. 952 Washington Nationals -149
  2. 953 San Diego Padres -103
  3. 953 San Diego Padres/Philadelphia Phillies Under 9 -105
  4. 955 Chicago Cubs -1½ +120
  5. 955 Chicago Cubs -133
  6. 955 Chicago Cubs/Pittsburgh Pirates* Under 9 -105
  7. 958 Cincinnati Reds -143
  8. 961 Miami Marlins/Colorado Rockies Over 12½ -105
  9. 962 Colorado Rockies -210
  10. 964 Arizona Diamondbacks -130
  11. 965 Cleveland Indians/New York Yankees Over 10½ -107
  12. 970 Boston Red Sox -250
  13. 972 Tampa Bay Rays -285
  14. 973 Minnesota Twins -103
  15. 977 Chicago White Sox/Los Angeles Angels Under 8½ -105

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