Today, the model recommends five full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Angels, Blue Jays, Marlins, Orioles and Pirates as full-game plays. The model also likes those same teams (except for the Pirates) as F5 plays.
Per my colleague, Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros are the biggest road favorite since 2005! So obviously we will be playing the Orioles.
As of writing, the odds on the Orioles imply a winning percentage of roughly 20%. I project their fair odds for today closer to 30%, while some industry sites put their chances at roughly 25-27%.
I certainly have some concerns about Asher Wojciechowski. His average fastball velocity dropped more than one full mph (to 91.3 mph) in his past two starts after he complained about hip discomfort, and he wasn’t able to generate many swings and misses against the Blue Jays or Yankees in either of outing while being tagged for 12 hits and five homers in 8.2 innings.
He’s going against a future Hall-of-Famer and a lineup that blew up his teammates for 23 runs on Saturday night. But that’s why the Orioles moneyline offers value.
The Orioles are exceedingly unlikely to win. Again, their chances are about 25-30%. But if the books imply a probability of 20%, how do you not take a 1/4 chance against odds that say 1/5?
I previewed Angels rookie Patrick Sandoval before his debut on August 5, and while he pitched well in a bulk role (5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 8 K) in that outing, usually reliable Angels opener Taylor Cole allowed five runs in the first inning — a hole that the Halos never climbed out of.
Furthermore, I’ll gladly continue to fade the Red Sox as a favorite when Andrew Cashner is starting. In five starts with Boston, he has the following line: 28.2 IP, 38 H, 26 R, 7 HR, 12 BB, 20 K (7.53 ERA, 6.46 FIP, 5.15 xFIP).
Hector Noesi will make his second start for the Marlins today against the Braves.
The 32-year-old spent some time in Korea between his last MLB appearance in 2015 and his start on August 6 against the Mets, but his Triple-A numbers in the offensive-friendly PCL from this season are encouraging: 21 starts, 125 IP, 3.82 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 112 H, 30 BB, 133 K.
The most noticeable difference in Noesi’s arsenal from 2015 to 2019 (in a small sample) is fewer fastballs and more sliders and curveballs. He pitched well for three seasons with the Kia Tigers in the KBO league, and I’m taking a chance that he found something overseas.
I played Noesi’s former team, the White Sox, at even money at home against the Athletics, just missing the 3.5% cut for being a model recommended play.
I have grown fond of the 2019 version of Lucas Giolito, and he is baseball’s third-most profitable pitcher this season (14-8, +$775, 35.2% ROI).
His metrics (3.43 FIP, 3.93 xFIP, .284 xwOBA) outclass those of Chris Bassitt (4.62 FIP, 4.73 xFIP, .305 xwOBA), and the Athletics are far more effective against left-handed pitching than against righties.
Lastly, I’m backing the Blue Jays today and expecting them to take a series win against the Yankees. Masahiro Tanaka is in the midst of one of the worst stretches of his career, with his xwOBA going off of the deep end of late:
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Bets (So Far) for August 11
- Baltimore Orioles (+390) Game Moneyline
- Chicago White Sox (+117) Game Moneyline
- Los Angeles Angels (+135) Game Moneyline
- Miami Marlins (+186) Game Moneyline
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+180) Game Moneyline
- Toronto Blue Jays (+161) Game Moneyline
- Under 11.5 (-110), LA Angels at Boston
- Under 10 (-115), Houston at Baltimore
- Under 9 (-120), Atlanta at Miami
- Over 9 (+100), Kansas City at Detroit
