9.09 % !!! Vegas cant cap games...

[wizardofodd]

9.09, yes say that number over and over again. 9.09, 9.09, 9.09.

That is the percent of lines that has mattered so far in the playoffs. That is a low, low number. Dogs are winning SU and favs are covering. We just have to pick the winner. Now I know the Boston game could be an exception, but hey, thats a great ML play. So if you are playing the dog, play the ML as well.

I wonder how this will continue as the playoffs go on. this number has to get up to about 15%. It was probably close to 17% during the regular season.

BOL fellas.

 

[B.A.R.]

Interesting

 

[Blue_Chip]

Forget capping the correct score/spread, how equal has the action been on sides and totals? And how many games have the heavily bet team (not the favorite) lost?

 

[wizardofodd]

until Monday the record was 33-3

until Tuesday, the record is now 35-4-1, up to 11.42% (not using the push)

 

[wizardofodd]

Thats why tonight, I'm liking washington +5.5 and boston -14.5, will prob add a small unit or so on washington ML.

 

[Blue_Chip]

How unbalanced has the money been?

 

[wizardofodd]

well i dont know where i can get accurate info from? i dont like wagerline cause thats playmoney

 

[brewer]

good luck finding the exact dollars on each side. lol.

 

[wizardofodd]

oh i'm not even going to try

 

[counselor]

I agree Vegaskyle can't cap games...

 

[wizardofodd]

37-4-1 , 10.8% now

2-0 last night with wash winning su and bos covering the spread.

Hell I'm glad, I hit all my plays last night.

 

[wizardofodd]

51-5-1 now!! Cleveland covered against the Celtics in game 1 as 10 point dogs. And since then, we have not seen any dogs cover or win SU.

Accuscore also predicts games, but with SU winners only. (avaliable at sportsline.com) Now I'm not that great at math, maybe BC can help me out here, but how good of a % rate would we be at if we were to just check accuscore for the SU winner and bet them on the spread, since they hit the SU winner pretty consistently. Taking in the fact that so far in the playoffs the spread has not mattered too much as long as you can pick the SU winner, you are at a pretty good rate to cover the spread. Also for tonight, they have Lakers winning 109-105. It would be a great spot to hit the +4.5 on the Lakers IMO.

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>2007-08 </TD><TD>Playoffs </TD><TD>Previous seasons </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Last night: 2-0 (100.0%)

</TD><TD>2008: 42-12 (77.8%)

</TD><TD>2006-07: 844-447 (65.4%)

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Week to date: 7-0 (100.0%)

</TD><TD>2007: 67-32 (67.7%)

</TD><TD>2005-06: 833-462 (64.3%)

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Year to date: 861-420 (67.2%)

</TD><TD>2006: 51-33 (60.7%)

</TD><TD>2004-05: 888-416 (68.1%)

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD></TD><TD>2005: 55-27 (66.8%)

</TD><TD>2003-04: 835-434 (65.8%)

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Inspekdah]

This has been a bit extreme but these numbers are to be expected in the playoffs. A spread has to be put on these games... but really it's only to correspond to the ML values being thrown out there. They can't possibly raise the spreads any more because they would get killed on the ML... but they might have to.


Even despite this run it's far from a "square" run.

Both Cavs and Hornets were the public teams last night. Getting 9 with the Cavs and 7 with the Hornets were more "too good to be true" than laying the number with the favorites.

Orlando should have covered +6 vs. the Pistons last week. Vegas took a hit on that w/ 66% on the Stons.

They're adjusting the spreads.... I mean look at the home swings... 10 to 11 points. Lakers are +4.5 and the Jazz were -8.5 at some spots for game one... that's 13 points.


I'm more concerned with %s than just saying favs are covering... because I bet consesus 60% and up bets aren't hitting at that same clip as the fav's.

 

[wizardofodd]

I've noticed that with the home swings also. They seem higher this year with at least a 10 point swing, and some are almost 13 point swings. I have not had a good playoff run so far, i'm down about $3500 so far in the playoffs!! I bet spurs game 1, I bet spurs game 2, then I bet hornets game 3! I cannot buy a game man!!

 

[Inspekdah]

I had Jazz circled if they lost both games for game 3, now I'm thinking well look at these trends... due to stop....


Got to stay level headed and just examine each game as it's own... A spread is only put out there to split the betting public and it looks like it's done a good job at that as I've seen some rather close consensus #s.

 

[wizardofodd]

i was going to jump on the jazz as well if they lost both games at home. but i havnt pulled the trigger because i'm second guessing myself.

 

[GWarner27]

this would normal be a no-brainer Utah play for me taking the unpopular home favorite with how dominant LAL has looked, but i'm thinking that the Lakers will win this one en route to a sweep.

any thoughts?