G
Gyno
Guest
Discussion thread.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Think some really good value in reds +153. Castillo has the stuff to compete with anyone plus his ground ball rate excellent which huge in this bandbox. Obviously stras a stud as well but has had few bumps at boa park and few reds lefties have had decent success. Much like the sf game price just right imo in what should be low scoring pitchers duel.
Under 7 in Seattle with 2 studs in that park.
Over 9 in Oakland, ball travels better in day and couple gas cans on mound!
Playing cards but again not being a homer just think they more than capable and price incredibly fair. Wacha best reg season performance ever came here last year.
Under 7 in Seattle with 2 studs in that park.
Over 9 in Oakland, ball travels better in day and couple gas cans on mound!
Playing cards but again not being a homer just think they more than capable and price incredibly fair. Wacha best reg season performance ever came here last year.
DeadEyeDuckie
Pretty much a regular
Got some home divisional underdogs. Didn't Bench mention they're worth looking at first month? Or first week?
Tecas
Oakland
Toronto
Would fit that if so.
Personal leans: St. Louis, LA Dodgers, Colorado
Tecas
Oakland
Toronto
Would fit that if so.
Personal leans: St. Louis, LA Dodgers, Colorado
Redscot
Pretty much a regular
Not sure what Callaway's angle is today putting Lagares in over Nimmo. I get the keep everyone involved, but only second game and Nimmo been a royal pain in the ass working counts and getting on base. Wacha's metrics last year have him 1 ER better against RHB than LHB (although if his changeup is on that helps mitigate those numbers), and importance of Lagares superior defense reduced as Degrom gets a lot of punchouts and a good GB%. :confused3:
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Castillo looks real good so far, but the book on him may not be out yet..he only has about 15 starts and Nats are vet team with Stras on mound
Historically road teams fair better in series game #2 especially when favored. Probably not enough to force a play..but worth noting
season >= 2015 and AF and SG = 2 and month < 5 and p:W
SU: 34-20 (1.65, 63.0%) avg line: -137.5 / 126.7 on / against: +$807 / -$1,006 ROI: +10.9% / -18.6%
RL: 27-27 (0.15, 50.0%) avg line: 126.6 / -138.7 on / against: +$672 / -$980 ROI: +12.2% / -13.0%
OU: 26-26-2 (0.70, 50.0%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$224 / -$222 ROI: -3.8% / -3.7%
Historically road teams fair better in series game #2 especially when favored. Probably not enough to force a play..but worth noting
season >= 2015 and AF and SG = 2 and month < 5 and p:W
SU: 34-20 (1.65, 63.0%) avg line: -137.5 / 126.7 on / against: +$807 / -$1,006 ROI: +10.9% / -18.6%
RL: 27-27 (0.15, 50.0%) avg line: 126.6 / -138.7 on / against: +$672 / -$980 ROI: +12.2% / -13.0%
OU: 26-26-2 (0.70, 50.0%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$224 / -$222 ROI: -3.8% / -3.7%
BJPLAYER
Pretty much a regular
gotta start a sox thread for the year...0-1-1 on the year losing the first game on the bullpen meltdown and pushing yesterday's game when the replay people didn't even look at the replay and just went with the ump in the 9th that would have resulted in a 2-0 game and a win....it was weird,m the umps put the headsets on and took them off almost as soon as they got them on and nunez looked safe...onward
i wouldn't trust Porcello today, i'm not convinced he is that great of a pitcher, i think he was lucky in his cy young year and last year he sucked....he may turn it around (hope so) he was 2-4 3.93 last year vs rays....rays throwing a rookie reliever out there who pitched well last year in relief 15 appearances and sub 2 era but maxed out at 27 pitches and he will be followed by another rookie who is untested....then they will get into the regular pen...rays can't hit so far....one inning they scored 6 against the boston pen and the other 17 innings they have scored zip so that may help porcello....boston's bats have been silent so far as well
probable pass
other games of interest
wacha as a dog....almost an automatic for me especially against the dysfunctional mets
cws as a small fav -08 agaist a week kc team
was thinking cashner against gibby who doesn't like the road but line move favor minn a lot so will think more
against sabathia
(that theory only cost me like a million last year)
under in oakland....neither team hitting yet and two decent pitchers in the big park
maybe fulmer...pitt gonna lose a lot this year and fulmer can be so tough
i wouldn't trust Porcello today, i'm not convinced he is that great of a pitcher, i think he was lucky in his cy young year and last year he sucked....he may turn it around (hope so) he was 2-4 3.93 last year vs rays....rays throwing a rookie reliever out there who pitched well last year in relief 15 appearances and sub 2 era but maxed out at 27 pitches and he will be followed by another rookie who is untested....then they will get into the regular pen...rays can't hit so far....one inning they scored 6 against the boston pen and the other 17 innings they have scored zip so that may help porcello....boston's bats have been silent so far as well
probable pass
other games of interest
wacha as a dog....almost an automatic for me especially against the dysfunctional mets
cws as a small fav -08 agaist a week kc team
was thinking cashner against gibby who doesn't like the road but line move favor minn a lot so will think more
against sabathia
(that theory only cost me like a million last year)
under in oakland....neither team hitting yet and two decent pitchers in the big park
maybe fulmer...pitt gonna lose a lot this year and fulmer can be so tough
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Nationals -1 -120 At first glance Castillo might fare well vs lefty-heavy Nats lineup, as last year (his only Major League season) he held LHBs to .181/.261/.370 -- pretty impressive. A deeper look shows an FIP/xFIP against LHBs of 3.95/4.01, and a worse K/BB than he had against righties. His BABIP against lefties though was .212, meaning he got lucky as hell. In any case none of this shit really matters at the end of the day because he's going up against Strasburg who has posted a K/9 over 10 in every single one of his seasons except 2. Strasburg actually had a better road FIP than home, so I'll be on WAS.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Lots of love for Carassco. If I can get the best lefty in baseball at home as a dog (Paxton). I will play it.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
BJ, it looks like TB will be on their bullpen strategy game, use a bunch of guys.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Im kinda of thinking of playing Prates / Cards and assume a split but Degrom had great spring
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Anyone want to push me over edge on Perdomo?
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
And cards
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
81 here today. Gets boring
And carrascos road numbers are actually better
45 with rain and 40-50 mph winds here today. Good times.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Jealous sounds great for wind surfing
G
Gyno
Guest
NYY/TOR over 5 FIRST FIVE
Sabathia typically is a slow starter and Estrada very bad numbers versus core of Yanks lineup. Love the key number of 5 whereas if it were 5.5 I would not take it. Should be a good one here.
Sabathia typically is a slow starter and Estrada very bad numbers versus core of Yanks lineup. Love the key number of 5 whereas if it were 5.5 I would not take it. Should be a good one here.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
FWIW the Jays have faces CC 13 times in last 5 years. They are 8-5 SU and 10-3 RL and they were favored in 11 of 13. That's right they lost by 1 both times they were dogs and covered stick in all 8 wins. link
NYY on other hand are 72% last 58 games as fav for a 15% ROI link (14-5 on road during same time as fav)
Probably no play for me...just saying
